To become the richest man from the beginning of the game

Chapter 1051 True Probability and False Probability

After this idea came up, Qiao Liang was taken aback by himself at first, thinking that he might be thinking too much, but the more he turned his head and analyzed, he felt that there was indeed such a possibility.

Everything Mr. Pei does must have deep meaning!

For the game "Fitness Battle", how to implement the lottery system actually does not necessarily have much impact on the profitability of the game itself.

Even if it is changed to a regular lottery draw, the players who should draw will still draw.

And since Mr. Pei has made the lottery system into the current state so radically, there must be some intentions in it.

This kind of intention is not yet apparent, but it is likely that Mr. Pei predicted the possible reactions of the players.

Therefore, if you want to truly analyze President Pei's intentions, you still have to start with the players' reactions.

Qiao Liang immediately looked for posts about the "Fitness Fight" lottery on the Internet, and analyzed the portraits of different user groups.

He quickly found many cases.

Because the players of "Fitness Battle" seem to have a much higher desire to post orders than other games.

Regardless of whether the luck is particularly good or the luck is particularly bad, they are all keen to post the results of the lottery on the Internet.

If we analyze according to the traditional krypton gold game, the player group who can recharge is generally divided into micro krypton, medium krypton and heavy krypton. .

But in "Fitness Fight", this kind of distinction seems to be less feasible.

For example, if a person charged 1000 yuan, after a click, he left his favorite orders and refunded all the others. In the end, he only spent more than [-] yuan. What about heavy krypton?

This situation is relatively rare, but it certainly exists.

Qiao Liang read a lot of cases on the Internet, and found that there are really all kinds of cases and there are all kinds of surprises.

For example, someone drew five ten consecutive draws in a row, and the result was all blue sky and white clouds, and a purple item came out, but the result was not what he wanted.

So this buddy refunded all of them dumbfounded.

If it was in other games, he might have to ask the customer service for an explanation, but since "Fitness Fighter" refunds casually, then come back in three days.

There was also someone who drew three ten consecutive draws in a row, and all of them burst into oranges. Originally, he planned to pick the one with the best result and keep it. The other two ten consecutive draws were all refunded. No refunds will be given now. Excited to show off online.

There is also one of the most amazing ones. I really smoked more than fifty ten consecutive draws, and I kept one ten consecutive draws that exploded two oranges in a row. King", I suggest that everyone learn from themselves to make Tengda bald.

Some people even regard this lottery system as a testing ground. Anyway, all of them can be refunded.

These wonderful situations have never been seen in the lottery system of other games.

Even if the players of other games are exposed, I am afraid there will only be two results of "Europe" and "non".Of course, European may be very European, but non-existent may not be too non-existent.

"Tengda's lucky draw mechanism... seems to be a real probability?"

Qiao Liang suddenly had an idea, and listed the differences between the traditional lottery mode and the "Fitness Battle" lottery mode on the document.

"True probability" is relative to "false probability".

If you think that the traditional lottery model is purely based on probability, it is a big mistake.

Qiao Liang also consciously supplemented a lot of game design knowledge, and he knew very well that the lottery in the game has never been a real probability, but a false probability.

Of course, the fake probability is not all for the merchants to make money, sometimes it is also to ensure the player's feelings.

This point must have a relatively basic knowledge of probability to understand.

For example, a merchant sets the explosive rate of a certain product to 20%, which is already very high.

Then, when the number of players is large enough and the sample size is large enough, the number of players who draw out this product for the first time is about 20%, which is easy to understand.

However, the probability of not drawing even five times is the multiplication of five 80%, which is 0.32768, which means that about 30% of players will not even draw five times.

And the probability of not drawing even ten times is the multiplication of ten 80%, which is about 0.1, which is 10%.

An item with a 20% explosion rate, if calculated according to the probability, 10% of the players would not even draw it ten times.

And if you add more, the probability of not drawing even twenty times is 1%.

Assuming that 10 people participated in this lottery, 1% is 1000 people.

There are 1000 people who can't draw something with a 20% burst rate even after twenty times. Can they accept it?

This is obviously inconsistent with their intuition: Isn't something with a 20% explosion rate guaranteed to appear after five times?

But probability is a thing that varies from person to person. A 20% explosion rate does not mean that it will happen five times, and it cannot even guarantee that it will happen ten times.

The probability cannot be accurate to a certain individual. Only when the data sample is large enough, the real probability will infinitely approach the theoretical data.

In other words, if you draw once, anything can happen; but if you draw 2000 million times, the probability of getting it will infinitely approach [-] million times.

But people who don't understand the basics of probability don't know this.

It is conceivable that these 1000 people have not drawn anything with a 20% explosion rate even twenty times, and they will definitely go to the forum to make trouble. How much public opinion pressure will there be by then?
And most of them are mid-level or heavy-weight players. After getting such a lottery experience, will they participate in the event again in the future?It's good tempered not to uninstall the game directly.

Therefore, in order to avoid this situation, many game manufacturers will set false probabilities in the game.

That is to say, for an item with a 20% explosion rate, if the player does not draw it for the first time, then the explosion rate will increase a little for the second time.

In this way, no matter how bad the player's luck is, there will always be a guarantee.

From this point of view, false probability does have the effect of protecting players to a certain extent.

But the problem is that since the game companies have made fake probabilities, it is definitely impossible to only protect the interests of the players, and they naturally have to protect their own interests.

For example, for a very precious item worth tens of thousands of dollars, even if the chance of success is 0.1%, if there are 100 players participating in the lottery, 90 lucky ones will enter the soul, and more than [-] lucky ones will enter the lottery. out twice...

If it is an unlimited number of precious props, then it doesn't matter.

But what if the official wants to limit 500 copies or 1000 copies in order to preserve the value of this item?

According to this drawing method, the ones who actually get the props may not necessarily be the ones who paid the most money, but most of them are the real European emperors.

Maybe the local tyrant didn't get out after charging thousands of yuan, but someone got out as soon as he sent it.

Being drawn away by these European emperors, the local tyrant would be psychologically unbalanced no matter whether they were drawn out or not, because even if the local tyrants were drawn, they must have spent far more money than the European emperors.

Luck and money ability are out of balance.

Therefore, game dealers often set a prerequisite at this time, that is, after accumulatively spending XX amount of money, it is possible to draw this thing, and the more money you charge, the greater the chance of getting it.

And doing so is also in line with the psychological expectations of most players: I only smoked once, and it is normal not to get out; local tyrants have smoked dozens of times, and it is reasonable to get out.

But in fact, this has long been arranged by the game manufacturer through false probabilities.

In this way, game companies ensure the consumption experience of local tyrants, thereby preserving their consumption desires, and naturally also preserving their own income and reputation.

What was sacrificed was the interests of a small group of pure European emperors, but it didn't matter, because they didn't know that they were actually pure European emperors, and they didn't know that they could actually draw out this precious item in one shot, thinking that it was normal for them not to draw it out. of.

Moreover, the players have no way of verifying the authenticity of the data, because both the detailed rules of the lottery draw and the data after the lottery are in the hands of the game company, and the players have no channels to contact them at all.

And Mr. Pei's lottery mode is obviously a true probability, that is to say, 20% is 20%, it doesn't matter if 1000 people can't even draw twenty times, I will give you a full refund and it's over.

After in-depth comparison of the two different lottery models, Qiao Liang suddenly had an idea.

"Could it be that Pei always wants to deconstruct the traditional lottery mode through this new type of lottery draw? Let some players realize that the lottery they think is just carried out under the frame drawn by the game company?"

"And Tengda's lottery draw actually broke this framework on its own initiative, giving players an absolutely fair but uncomfortable true probability?"

"That... this is an almost impossible task!"

Qiao Liang couldn't help admiring Mr. Pei.

False probability has long been accompanied by the lottery system. Even before many games have a lottery function, some websites and apps have already done it.

But so many years have passed, but few people have questioned this kind of thing.

On the contrary, more and more players are getting used to and keen on lottery draws, and more and more merchants have researched various lottery draws that take care of players' feelings on the surface, and are actually more convenient for themselves to make money.

For game companies, the lottery system is equivalent to a stable cash cow, so that no matter whether it is a terminal game, a mobile game, or even a lot of merchants who hold random events, they start to draw lots frequently.

Some people make money, so naturally some people lose money.

Game companies like to do lottery activities so much, they must not lose money.

Then who is at a loss? Isn't this obvious?

And Mr. Pei's lottery system obviously wants to pierce the veil, tell the players the cruel truth, and change the status quo!
Of course, the current situation is not optimistic.

Because the vast majority of players do not have the relevant knowledge of game design, and it is human nature to like to try their luck and take advantage of it.

Many people like lottery draws. If you tell him that you talk about probability, expectation, and lottery draws in a straight-forward manner, he will not listen at all. He must think he is the lucky one, or even be cheated and spend a lot of money. After pulling out a pile of garbage, he insisted that he was just unlucky this time, and he would definitely be able to pull out what he wanted next time.

And ordinary merchants will obviously only try their best to tell consumers that things like lottery draws are a kind of preferential activities, players and merchants are mutually beneficial, and it is very cost-effective to draw a lottery.

At most, it is to use a very small line of words in the lottery to remind: the lottery is risky, and you need to be cautious when recharging.

But this kind of reminder will definitely be small and small, and most people won't take it to heart at all.

After this analysis, Qiao Liang came to a rather surprising conclusion.

"Brother Pei's behavior, isn't he cutting off all sources of income from the lottery?"

"Although it may not be successful, Mr. Pei is really trying to use the lottery system of "Fitness Battle" to contrast other lottery draws, so that everyone can see the fact of the so-called lottery draw more clearly."

"Even if not many people will appreciate it in the end, even if it will attract crazy attacks from other companies that rely on lottery draws to make money, I don't care."

"It's really hard work!"

Qiao Liang couldn't help feeling that this kind of thing is only done, willing, and dared to be done by Mr. Pei!
It's just that most people are too slow to respond, and they don't perceive Mr. Pei's good intentions at all.

A video must be produced, and the key points of this must be explained well, so that President Pei's hard work cannot be wasted!

The lottery activities of Finger Company and Longyu Group seem to be very conscientious, but that is only when compared with other lottery draws that are too black to be black.

In fact, it is still changing the soup but not the medicine, even if it is [-]% off, it is still trying to find a way to make money from the players!

Compared with Tengda's approach, what conscience is there?

　One more tonight

　　
　
(End of this chapter)