Lost and Spy

Chapter 697 Assumption Exclusion
"Order, the radio station will immediately resume contact with Xuzhou!"

As soon as Meng Shaoyuan gave this order, everyone immediately became nervous.

Hands-on!
Finally got started.

A full hour.

No one understood what Meng Shaoyuan wanted to do.

But everyone knows that once Director Meng decides to attack, the offensive will definitely continue!

"Let Xuzhou be very nervous during this hour. It is manifested in that it is constantly sweating with a towel, the frequency of drinking water is obviously very fast, and in terms of smoking, one cigarette after another, or, People who obviously still have half a cigarette in their hand, but subconsciously go to get it again, temporarily let them leave the yard and find another place for them to stay. Special attention should be paid to continuous smoking, and to investigate whether they have been like this before old smoker."

"These are all suspects?"

"No, these can be temporarily ruled out."

……

"What does Meng Shaoyuan mean by doing this? He wants to find out the ghost among these people?"

The gazes of Habara Koichi and Itauchi Yasuhide fell on Kawamoto Kojiro at the same time.

"No, the method he used is exactly the opposite." Kawamoto Kojiro pondered for a while: "This is the method of hypothetical exclusion. Meng Shao originally set a benchmark for the suspect. He initially sketched out a hypothetical The image of the suspect in his mind, since he was able to lurk and complete a very important task, the psychological quality of this suspect is excellent.

As soon as he came up, he asked people to tell these 35 people that spies were among them, and no one wanted to be suspected of spies, so most of them would feel nervous.And what about real spies?On the contrary, the more nervous he was, the more he had to act as if nothing had happened, even calmer than before. "

"So, our people fell into Meng Shaoyuan's trap because of this?" Bannei Kangying was worried.

"Yes." Kawamoto Kojiro nodded: "Calmness and strong psychological quality are the most basic living conditions for an excellent spy. However, this was used by Meng Shaoyuan. This spy, he didn't know what he was facing. An extremely powerful and terrifying enemy, to the point that he doesn't even know that the presiding judge is Meng Shaoyuan!"

Terrible.

Meng Shaoyuan was in Shanghai, but he commanded by remote control and set a trap in Xuzhou!
He didn't even need to meet, he had already started to bring this inner ghost out of the water little by little!
……

A total of [-] people were temporarily ruled out as suspects.

Seventeen left!

"urgent telegram!"

A telegram was delivered to Xue Sixu.

Xue Sixu took a closer look:
"The latest information from the Xuzhou Station of the Military Command shows that from 4:23 pm to 7:8 pm on April [-]rd, Japanese hidden spies had a secret contact with their accomplices lurking in Xuzhou. I need you to tell me immediately what you have done during this time!"

"I, I said!"

"I have evidence, I have evidence that I am not a spy!"

Several people scrambled to call out.

……

"Meng Shaoyuan's telegram made Xue Sixu tell the rest of the suspects that the hidden spy was on the night of April 4rd..."

"Kawamoto-kun, what does this mean?"

Just as Kohide Bannai asked, Kawamoto Kojiro hadn't answered yet, Koichi Habara had already said, "Your Excellency General, do you remember what you were doing on April 4?"

"This..." Bannai Kangying thought for a long time: "It's been so many days, I really can't remember it for a while."

"Yeah, so many days have passed, and I can't remember." Habara Koichi smiled wryly: "But what about a hidden spy? He lives in danger every day, and he is always worried that he will be exposed. When another day is finally difficult When he gets through, he will reflect on what he did that day and whether there are any problems, so he will clearly remember what happened every day, and he knows that he has no contact with any companions on April 4rd. Pass!"

"So……"

……

"He will remember that he didn't take over with his own people at all on April 4." Meng Shaoyuan smiled faintly: "He can also clearly explain his movements that day, and he doesn't worry about exposing himself because of this incident. Do you know why I kept them waiting for an hour? I have other intentions besides observing their reaction!"

……

"By the way, I know why Meng Shaoyuan made them wait for an hour." Habara Koichi said sharply: "In addition to observing those nervous people, he also kept telling Xuzhou to get the so-called documents and information. A very strong message, in terms of military command, there are more and more clues.

Our latent spy is already in a state of high tension, waiting for an hour, and the other party's hints are so strong, no matter how good his psychological quality is, he will also feel anxious.He has to wrestle with his own nervousness and beware of the opponent's next move at any time. As time goes by, he will make mistakes in judgment! "

"No...I mean, there will be mistakes in judgment!" Kawamoto Kojiro's expression also changed: "In many cases found in American criminal psychology research, when a suspect cannot get rid of the crime for a long time, if there is a His first reaction was to seize this opportunity to clear himself of his suspicions.

In 1925, in the serial murder case in San Antonio, Texas, the police captured a suspect, but there was no evidence to convict them. They asked Karen Horney, a female psychologist, to assist.Horney set up a plan and deliberately gave the suspect a chance to escape the crime. Sure enough, the suspect with extremely strong psychological quality found this opportunity and quickly seized it during the long interrogation process by the police.

As a result, Honey led the suspect into the trap she set up step by step, and the method she adopted was to let you prove your innocence..."

……

"Suspect, let him prove his innocence." Meng Shaoyuan played with a pack of cigarettes in his hand: "When you interrogate him, he takes the initiative to attack, and he will build a strong line of defense to protect himself. The troubles encountered will always be much more than defensive battles. But let him take the initiative to attack? Then the situation will be reversed.

Suspects can't wait to seize this opportunity and try to prove their innocence.In this process, he needs to use the second evidence to prove the first evidence, and the third evidence to prove the second evidence.Evidence after evidence, lie within lie, he will be completely messed up, and he will expose himself! "

……

"It's the 'Karen Horney Theory' and it's up to the suspect to prove himself guilty!"

"Our sorrow is that we can only watch our people being exposed step by step." Habara Koichi sighed: "There is no way to remind him, knowing that he is walking into a trap, but he doesn't even have the ability to pull him! "

……

"Let those who can't answer for a while be temporarily released from suspicion."

Meng Shaoyuan issued a new order: "How many people take the initiative to report their movements?"

"Eleven!"

"After excluding those who took the initiative to report, but when it was time to report, they thought for a long time before remembering what they did that day?"

"There are six more."

"The suspect is very likely to be among these six people. How about someone who can tell what he did that day by opening his mouth?"

"Four. Chen Yishao, it was his birthday that day, and he invited a few people to drink together... Liang Zicheng was on duty that day, and their shifts were scheduled regularly, so I remember it very clearly...

Fu Binsheng, who was promoted that day, drank a few glasses of congratulations in the officer's dormitory in the evening... Shi Desen, it's a bit funny, he raised a concubine outside, but was found out by the eldest wife, who was caught raped in bed that day, many people know ..."

"The main point of the hypothetical exclusion method is to firmly believe that the assumptions you set before are completely correct." Meng Shaoyuan looked at the four people:

"The inner ghost is a cautious person. He will not do anything that may expose himself. The frontline battle in Xuzhou is so tense, and he still invites others to drink on his birthday? That is going to the wind, and the inner ghost will not do that. Chen Yishao's suspicion is fine. Temporarily ruled out.

The same is true for Shi Desen, raising a young wife, being caught and raped in bed, even if he is acting on purpose, he will be distrusted by his boss, which is not good for his latent work.He can basically rule out suspicion.

The remaining two?A life is regular and clearly remembers its own shift time.One got a promotion, and he just celebrated by himself, and he was able to control himself. "

Hypothetical exclusion method:

No matter it is right or wrong, under the already established benchmark of inner ghosts, all those who do not meet the requirements are eliminated, and the rest are the targets to be looked for.

If it turns out that your benchmark is wrong, then the goals set under the benchmark will no longer be suspect, and a new benchmark needs to be established.

Meng Shaoyuan had no suspicions: "Take Liang Zicheng and Fu Binsheng under control immediately!"

"How to find the real target from the two of them?"

"You still don't understand?" Meng Shaoyuan smiled: "The criminal needs to use the second evidence to prove the first evidence, but the second evidence may put him to death!"

……

"Liang Zicheng, Fu Binsheng!"

"To!"

"According to our intelligence, the spy not only met with his companions on April 4, but also sent out an intelligence report on April 23. The specific time is 4 pm. What are you doing today? ?”

"This?" Fu Binsheng hesitated for a moment: "I'll think about it, I'll think about it, I'm sure I can think of it."

"Report sir!" Liang Zicheng replied loudly: "This afternoon from 2:4 p.m. to [-]:[-] p.m., I have been studying a piece of intelligence sent by the front in the office, and many colleagues are with me!"

"Oh, really?" Xue Sixu smiled, "You remember it really clearly."

……

"It's over." Bannei Kangying's face was pale: "The spy we arranged is code-named 'Kappa', and his Chinese name is Liang Zicheng!"

(End of this chapter)