China entertainment boss brush copy
Chapter 262 Introduction of Equipment and Skills (to)
Chapter 262 Introduction of Equipment and Skills (to)
Part One: Opening
2019 is about to pass.Is there a specific person in your heart who has lit you up in this year or at a certain moment?
I have got.
At this moment, I want to pay tribute to him, Mr. IM Pei.
On May 2019, 5, Mr. Bei passed away at the age of 16.
He is a man who has left many monuments in the world.However, if you read his biography, you will find that almost every architectural work of his faced criticism and criticism at that time, and came to the world after going through all kinds of difficulties and dangers.
Someone once asked him: What do you think of the outside world's criticism of you?
IM Pei's answer to this is: "I have never considered these problems, because I have been immersed in how to solve my own problems."
You, me, everyone will have such an "I.M. Pei moment".No matter what you have done or are doing, you will encounter challenges of all kinds.How to do it?This sentence from Mr. Bei is the best answer I have ever heard.
So, what problem are we solving this time?
Economist He Fan will answer, what is our economic fundamentals?
Investor Huang Hai will answer, what new opportunities are there in our consumer market?
The financier Xiang Shuai would answer, we want to make money, where does the money come from?
Education expert Shen Zuyun will answer, what is happening to the most anxious education issue in each of our families?
Wang Yu, an expert in the technology industry, answered the plenary session, is China's technological innovation stuck by the United States?
Shi Hui, an international political scientist, will answer, will China's status as the world's factory of manufacturing be replaced?
It is a great honor for me to publish their research on their behalf.
When it comes to solving problems, let me talk about my problem first: find out who the New Year's Eve speech is for.
Last year, we talked about a word called "people who do things".Later, I met many people who said they had a special sense of identity with this word.However, I feel that it is still very vague and should be more specific.
It might be clearer to describe it with two things.
The first thing is about the library.Public libraries have a responsibility to organize various cultural activities for citizens.
In 2019, I heard a number, saying that there is a library in a prefecture-level city with only more than 100 staff members who hold 5000 activities a year.This number surprised me.What concept?If you do the math, the average day is more than 13 games.This library is Zhejiang Jiaxing Library.
Libraries, this thing seems to have been out of our sight for many years.In our minds, it should be a deserted place.Why is Jiaxing Library so busy? What did you do with the 5000 events?
We can think about it first, for example, for the elderly, if you organize activities, what topics can you think of?Music, chess, calligraphy and painting?Health care?You see, the imagination is a little bit worse.Because in the minds of many people, the elderly are a group of people who have withdrawn from social participation, just have fun, pass the time, and spend their old age peacefully.
But the Jiaxing Library didn't think so, they really did it.As soon as you do it, you know that this is not the case at all.
First of all, very few seniors are willing to sign up for an event with the word "senior".More importantly, what the elderly need is social participation.So, the lecture activity they developed for the elderly is: How to use a smartphone?Once you have learned how to use a smartphone, you can check bus routes, shop on Taobao, and even sell goods on Taobao yourself.
The most popular lecture, which you may not think of, is how to make an electronic photo album.Taking photos, selecting photos, adding music, adding subtitles, and sending them to WeChat groups, I feel a sense of accomplishment after finishing.This is a creative activity within the capabilities of the elderly.Note that the emphasis is on "creativity".This is not only the library's heartfelt respect for the elderly, but also a high-level understanding of its social responsibilities.
You see, just like this, through exploration in the real world, the Jiaxing Library held 5000 events a year.
What is "a person who does things"?They are not solving imaginary problems one by one, they are responding to real-world challenges one by one.
If I agree with this idea, how can I respond to real-world challenges?
This year, I stumbled across a story told by Zeng Guofan.In the countryside, a man went out and saw two people on top of each other on a narrow field ridge, neither would let the other, and no one could get through.Why not?Because both of them carried heavy loads and the road was too narrow, whoever wanted to give way had to go down the field ridge and stand in the paddy field with his feet in the mud.
As a bystander, you want to go up and persuade, how can you persuade?No one is convinced.
In Zeng Guofan's story, what did the bystander do?
He stepped forward and said, "Come on, come on, I'll go down to the field, you give me the burden, I'll pick it up for you, turn your back, won't you just pass?"
You see, as long as you change your identity a little bit, from a bystander to a person in it, and put yourself in it, isn't it a seemingly unsolvable thing, and there will be an answer?
Zeng Guofan called this method: bow down and enter the game.
What is "a person who does things"?It's not about staying out of the matter and giving pointers.Instead, bow down to enter the game, put yourself in, and turn yourself into a key variable to solve the problem.
However, it still feels a bit inappropriate to describe you as "people who do things".I have to find a new word.
One day my colleague Cai Yu, the dean of the university's teaching and research department, told me a line from an old movie "The Wind": "Because the nation is at the point of survival, we can only work hard without caring about ourselves."
She memorized this sentence for ten years, just because of the word in it - "my generation".She said: In the words "my generation", there is a sense of home and constructiveness towards the world.No matter which era, my generation is the most fascinating group of people.
"My generation" is just a pronoun, which has no meaning at all, but everyone can feel that there is a sense of proud identity in these two words.
Those who face challenges head-on and join in the challenge are all members of our generation.
Don't think this is my invention, when did people like me start to exist?From the place where our national spirit originated, there are people like me.
The West often says that we Chinese have no faith.However, do Chinese people have no faith?This year I saw a passage, if you sort out the most famous Chinese myths, you will find such a group of stories: Pangu opened the sky, Nuwa mended the sky, Houyi shot the sun, Kuafu chased the sun, Jing Wei reclamates the sea, Yu Gong moves mountains, and Dayu controls the water.
Did you find anything in common?The Chinese never submit to overwhelming power, but when facing an opponent that is impossible to defeat, they know what they can't do.
Who does the New Year’s Eve speech serve?It is for such people.
French writer Camus once said: Don't walk behind me, because I may not lead the way.Don't go ahead of me, because I may not follow.Please walk by my side and be my friend.
Please walk by my side, thank you, friends of time.
Part [-]: What is the fundamentals of China’s economy?
At this time, you must have a question in your mind: How is the Chinese economy?
If you ask me to predict, I really can't, that's the job of economists.
You have to ask me about my personal feelings, maybe I have said this for 20 years: my generation is in a continuous upward channel.
The economy is not predicted, it is done.If you feel good, good; if you feel bad, then work hard.
More importantly, the perspective of observing China's economy in 2019 is not only good or bad, optimistic or pessimistic, but also from many perspectives.
For example, Professor Zeng Ming said: "The easy money must be gone, and everyone will have to work harder in the future."
Regarding the more difficult things, Professor Zeng Ming has a further explanation: Don’t think that it’s harder to go to the sinking market, and don’t think that it’s harder to find subdivided needs, this doesn’t count.The real opportunity is to transform every traditional industry that deserves to be reconstructed. This is a creative "drudgery".
You see, in the eyes of Professor Zeng Ming, whether the Chinese economy is hot or cold is not a question of overall good or bad, but a question of what to do and how to do it.If you are willing to do hard work, you will have a chance, but if you just want to earn easy money, you will have no chance.
The philanthropist Wang Bing reminded me that the economic phenomenon in 2019 is essentially due to the fact that the speed of technological progress is too fast, while the speed of social evolution is too slow, and there is friction between the two.
For example, many people still want to get divorced when they are half a century old. Why?Because of the advancement of medical technology, the life of a hundred years may become the norm. It is normal for a couple to divorce in their 60s and [-]s. It used to be the end of the toleration, and now they have to endure it for another [-] or [-] years.You can see that what he is talking about is the problem of dislocation of the times, not the problem of pessimism and optimism.
For another example, Liang Ning, a business observer, said that someone showed her a list of more than 100 troubled companies, and she discovered a problem: for every troubled company, there are corresponding positive models in the same industry.
Yedao Lugui Liquor, which makes health wine, is in trouble, but food that focuses on health concepts has begun to explode.
Huiyuan Juice, which makes beverages, is in trouble, but a group of young beverages have begun to emerge.
It is said that clothing is not good, and Li Ning has become China's Li Ning, which has become popular and has become a national trend.
Liang Ning said that the reason behind this is that the market population has changed.do you know?The number of people living in this land of China now, those born after the reform and opening up, exceeds those before.
You see, she is talking about demographic issues, not overall good and bad, pessimistic and optimistic issues.
When Mr. Wu Bofan faced my question, the answer he gave was more interesting. He gave me a sentence: 2019 is a typical "paradox year", with both good and bad, parallel at the same time.
Investor Zhang Ying suggested an angle, which I think is also very interesting.
For a period of time in the second half of this year, Zhang Ying organized people to watch movies every day, and mobilized all entrepreneurs to watch a documentary-"Freehand Rock Climbing".
Why is Zhang Ying so active in attracting people to watch this documentary?He is an investor, and he is actually telling the entrepreneurs of this era: The process of freehand rock climbing is not to overcome difficulties, but to get used to them.
I understand that Zhang Ying has another meaning, which is that the Chinese economy has reached a point where it needs to switch from one mode to another. I call it: switching from the elevator mode to the rock climbing mode.
What's the meaning?The so-called elevator refers to those stable and exact passages.In the past, the way we understood the world was that as long as we got on the elevator, we could go up, and we were very sure: if you study hard, you can be admitted to a good university; It must make more money than selling lipstick. This year, you can try to talk about it in front of Li Jiaqi?
Now China has switched to rock climbing mode, where to climb next, every step is a test of our creativity and ability to choose.
None of the teachers we mentioned just now used the simple method of "good" or "bad" to judge China.
Next, we will open the report brought back by Mr. He Fan: "He Fan China Economic Report".He was the first of the six research teams we sent out.They visited more than 40 cities, dozens of industries, and interviewed nearly 300 people.Take a look at what is the basic disk that supports our Chinese economy to where it is today?On this basic disk, how should we act?
Teacher He Fan gave me a revelation: In China in this era, switching from elevator mode to rock climbing mode is actually not as difficult as we imagined.
When it comes to the fundamentals of the Chinese economy, we first think of——
Extremely complete infrastructure, the world's largest supply chain system, the world's largest unified market, and an uninterrupted civilization consensus. Of course, all of this is inseparable from the country's super social organization capabilities.
All of this is really about one thing: massive scale.To understand China's economic fundamentals, it is necessary to take ultra-large scale as a prerequisite.But that's where we stop?Certainly not.We have to think deeper.
Hyperscale just means big, how much?No, it also means something else: complex.What does complex mean?Just like in rock climbing, the more complex the terrain, the more grips there are, and the easier it is to climb upwards.
Let's take a look at how complexity has made this generation in China.
Most of our generation came from the countryside to the city, from a small place to a big place, and few of them reached the destination in one step.But at every step, society provides us with footholds and grips—just as a climbing wall is full of grips and resting places.
You just think, today a rural boy comes to Shanghai to work hard. He has no education and no skills. It is always possible to be a courier. He is honest and willing to work, and he can still earn thousands of dollars.Then stand on this point and move on to the next step. Can you learn a craft and enter a profession?Can you do a good job and become a supervisor?
Do you know this person?Butcher.
It's normal that I don't know him, because the last time he was popular was 16 years ago.The media called him: Lu Buxuan, the Butcher of Peking University.The media reported on him because everyone was surprised to find that a talented student in the Chinese Department of Peking University was reduced to selling pork.
We can go back to the situation at that time, and the best understanding of this person's situation is: all deeds are the same, regardless of high or low.Do you think that a pork seller can only do that.
But in the past two years, he has become popular again, because he has grown up selling pork jerky and has become an entrepreneur selling pork.According to media reports, in 2018, their company had a sales revenue of 18 billion.
You can see that in the first half of his life, he was admitted to the Chinese Department of Peking University from a remote rural area. Back then, he took the elevator, right?It doesn't work.Did not find a suitable job.Just consume it?No.Get out of the elevator, even if you go to the vegetable market to sell meat, you still have a chance.Is this the last stop?Nor is it.You can continue to move forward and develop the butcher stall into a formal enterprise.Can you enjoy being an entrepreneur?Still no.Do you know what he is doing now?Becoming an Internet celebrity on Douyin, chatting about pork and life with young people today, and posting a short video has tens of thousands of likes.
No matter which angle you look at it, Lu Buxuan's story is very common in China.
If you look at a person's life, how can it be explained by a simple label or a direct elevator, it is very complicated.These are the various handles brought about by the complexity of our Chinese society.
Of course, I know that when I talk about Lu Buxuan, some people say that he has caught up with the wave of entrepreneurship and the rising price of pork, and he is a survivor.Let's take a look at those people who may have eaten with him in the canteen of Peking University 30 years ago:
Zhang Yitang, a world-renowned mathematician;
Robin Li, founder of Baidu;
Xi Chuan, a famous poet;
Chen Yonghai, physicist;
Yu Liang, Chairman of Vanke Group;
Xuan Mingdong became the director of the App’s editorial office.
Then you have to say that he enjoys some benefits only because he is a graduate of Peking University. Most people don’t have this opportunity. Let’s take a look at these few:
Mi Wenjuan, the founder of VIPKID, never went to college;
Zhang Yong, the founder of Haidilao, never went to college;
Li Xiang, the founder of Chehejia, never went to college;
Huang Zhang, the founder of Meizu, never went to college;
And this one, the national goddess, Ms. Tao Huabi, the founder of Laoganma.As we all know, he basically never went to school.
This is China, no matter where you are, you can't say you don't have a chance.
What is a good time?Just walking on the street, we dare not underestimate anyone.
In fact, it's not just an individual, let's look at the story of a small town.This small town is Wuzhen.
There is an interesting place in Wuzhen.It is divided into East Gate and West Gate.
Dongzha is a native natural market. Like many ancient towns around Shanghai, every household is engaged in tourism: opening inns, restaurants, and selling specialties. Try this today and that tomorrow. It is full of vitality and fireworks.
As for Xizha, the aborigines were moved out, hired as employees, unified planning, and overall upgrading.The place where the Internet conference is held is Xizha. Friends who have been there know that there is a water town in the south of the Yangtze River outside the door, and Wi-Fi and big beds are inside the door.
Dongzha is all self-owned business, full of initiative and flexibility, what is easy to make money, what tourists like, Dongzha is the easiest to smell the wind direction, and the fastest action.But at the same time, the ceiling is also obvious, the homogenization of goods and services, and the pursuit of short-term effects.
Therefore, if there is no Xizha, the infrastructure, order and standards of tourism services in this ancient town will be suddenly improved.The Wuzhen you see is one of countless such scenic spots in China, with the same small bridges and flowing water, and the same tourist souvenirs. It will not be the flagship of tourism in this ancient town that stands out today.
Do not you think so?Wuzhen is a kind of microcosm of China. Some people are exploring the road ahead, free and at ease, but they also bear the price. Some people are building roads behind and solidifying the results of road exploration into infrastructure.
Constantly looking for grips, take a step, take a solid step, and then look for the next grip.Go up step by step.Isn't this whole process also unarmed rock climbing?
When you go back to the world of ideas, there is always such a debate—free market or strong management and strong planning is better, but in the real world, there is no such contradiction.
Anyone who is familiar with China's reform and opening up knows that Pudong and Shenzhen came out in this way, and there are always road explorers and road repairers.
The famous American best-selling author Nassim Taleb said: There are two kinds of people in the world, those who want to win and those who want to win debates.Whenever we get stuck, we think about Wuzhen.While people outside Wuzhen are still debating which of the two models is better, Wuzhen has already started working on it. Who cares, Wuzhen really wants to win anyway.
You see, in a country with this kind of complexity, of course, a new successful model can emerge, which Mr. He Fan calls: an evolutionary algorithm in a complex environment.
And biologist Professor Wang Liming said: Yes, evolutionary algorithm is the only reliable success science on earth.
When we face such a rock wall with so many handholds, what posture should we take when facing the complexity of China?
In the latest report, Mr. He Fan put forward a word: the bonus of ignorance.It means that although it seems that everyone is doing something, there are a lot of people who are doing nothing.The bonus that you can enjoy as long as you are a little bit ahead of them is the bonus of just doing nothing.
Those of us who have achieved a little bit can ask ourselves, are our achievements really due to our talents?No, it's because we are a little more serious than others at certain moments, and that's enough.In the age of rock climbing in China, it is enough for us to be a little bit more serious than the people around us.The struggle of others has made our efforts.Therefore, to be more accurate, the bonus of not being more or less should be the bonus of not being more or less obsessed.
Let me give you an example:
A few days ago, I took a taxi.It is estimated that many people have played.When you get off the bus, the driver will ask you to give a good review.Because five-star praise is very important to drivers, they can be given priority in dispatching orders.Many people didn't give it, often because when they got off the bus, they were busy talking and forgot.As for the driver I met that day, look at his operation:
First of all, when we were 300 meters away from our home, he told me very politely that I would end the trip for you in advance and charge you less money.Hearing this sentence, you must feel that you have taken advantage of it.
I was about to say thank you, but then the driver said something to me, please, if it is convenient for you, can you give me a five-star praise?
You see, as soon as I said this, I was still in the car, and I happened to be free, and I just took advantage of him, am I still a human?
With such a simple action, I felt a sudden respect for him in my heart.I just took his car this time, and I haven’t chatted with him, but I know in my heart that this person is serious about his work, and he will find a way to solve the common problems faced by the same industry. Such a person must To excel in this line of work, the income must be high.Even if he changes his career in the future, he still has a future.
Have we been able to meet such people everywhere from childhood to adulthood?This is our China.Everyone can find their own focus.Take a look to the side and take that little step, that's where you're going to go up the rock.
I know that speaking of this, you are still not satisfied. You always want to ask Mr. He Fan for an answer and a prediction for the future.
But as the Internet thinker Negroponte said: The best way to predict the future is to create it.
Part III: What are the new opportunities in the consumer market?
As we said just now, China is like a rock climbing resort, and there are grips everywhere that allow us to climb upwards.But where is the opportunity?
In the past, we were always busy catching up with new trends, so it was easy for us to overlook a very certain opportunity: consumption.You think, no matter when, ordinary people always want to pursue a better life.
Something happened in 2019. This year, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods will exceed 40 trillion yuan.This means that starting from this year, China will surpass the United States and become the world's largest consumer market.Moreover, China's current average annual growth rate is much faster than that of the United States.In other words, starting from 2019, our consumption power will not only become the strongest in the world, but will also become stronger and stronger.
Investor Li Feng also reminded me: We not only have strong consumption capacity, but also strong supply capacity. We have the largest and most complete supply chain in the world. Not only is demand and supply strong, but our efficiency has also improved very quickly.We are also second to none in the application and transformation speed of the new generation of technologies represented by artificial intelligence and big data.
You see, the largest supply, the largest demand, and the fastest efficiency improvement, these three variables are concentrated in one country and one market at the same time, which is extremely rare in human history.what will happenThe result will definitely exceed our expectations.
Therefore, after looking at more than 1000 consumer projects, Huang Hai, an investor, brought back a survey report on China's consumer market: "China Consumer Industry Report".
Mr. Huang Hai made a judgment: China's consumer market is exploding at multiple points.
You may have seen many phenomena such as Internet celebrities carrying goods, blind boxes, and trendy brands. So what does this consumer market have to do with each of us?What are the handles that can help everyone climb up?
There are at least three huge opportunities:
First, new infrastructure.
Let's start with a phenomenon.
Who is this year’s Tmall cosmetics brand champion?Perfect Diary, a brand new Chinese brand.
A more interesting point is the history of the top three cosmetics on Tmall: L’Oreal Paris for 112 years, Estee Lauder for 73 years, and Perfect Diary for only 2 years.
If you go back to ten years ago and build a new brand and start an industry, you will not even be able to put the factory into production in two years.Not to mention, it takes time to build a brand, communicate channels, and scale up.Why did Perfect Diary become number one in only 2 years?
Because it makes good use of China's new infrastructure.
Infrastructure doesn't just refer to railways, roads and airports.It refers to all the things that an innovator can safely throw out and let others do.
We still take Chinese cosmetics as an example.In today's Chinese market, if you want to start a new cosmetics brand, you don't have to do many things yourself.You only need to do one thing well: define your core competence that cannot be outsourced.For example, understand users, connect users, and serve users well. All the remaining R&D design, manufacturing, logistics, and marketing platforms have ready-made infrastructure to provide you with a complete set of solutions.
Let's take another look at China's new infrastructure——
If I have a reliable plan, how can this plan become a product?China's huge manufacturing strength is my backing.
Once you have the goods, where will you sell them?China's powerful e-commerce platform is my infrastructure. Through it, I can reach 8 million users.
E-commerce is struggling, is this over?Below the e-commerce platform is a well-developed logistics system. The average express cost of 1 US dollar can transport the whole country.This is a miracle all over the world.
What about looking down?Below China's logistics is the result of decades of uninterrupted village-to-village projects.In such a large area of land, every village must be connected to electricity, roads, and the Internet.
do you know?In some remote areas, the average investment per household is 4 yuan just to achieve the goal of electrification, and it will take 100 years to recover the cost if it relies on electricity bills.
With these infrastructures, even if you are in a remote rural area, as long as you understand the needs, express and communicate.You can use these infrastructures to become your own grasp.Sell the eggplant, pepper, and tomato for a flower.Get rich on the spot, rise on the spot.
Therefore, when we are happily watching rural guys bringing goods and selling local specialties on Douyin and Kuaishou, you only need to step away and take a look, and what you will see is a world-only, layer-by-layer accumulation, scale. , a new infrastructure system that is extremely deep and complex.
Let's look at the second opportunity, let's start with a scene. In February 2018, a Chinese brand came to New York Fashion Week.They did a simple and rude thing, embroidering four Chinese characters, square and square, on their chests.
This design exploded on Chinese social media.Who is crazy retweeting?Young people, post-95s.Many of them don't even know who Li Ning himself is.They simply think that the four square Chinese characters "China Lining" on the chest are so cool and powerful.
Li-Ning's most fashionable shoe in 2019, do you know what the post-00s praise it the most? In addition to the Two-dimensional spirit, there is another word that I can't think of: 'sense of stepping on shit'.What's the meaning?It's just that the shoes feel soft and follow the feet when walking, like stepping on shit.Young people will write on social media: blow it up!
You see, this is what the brand "China Lining" looks like in the hearts of the younger generation of consumers.
With the "China Lining" sub-brand, after many years of silence, Li Ning's sales entered the [-] billion RMB club for the first time, and its stock price tripled.How do you explain this?
From Li Ning to China Li Ning, writing the word "China" grandly on the chest instantly ignited the original pride and recognition in the hearts of contemporary young people.
The only reasonable explanation is four words - China dividend.
Today, almost all consumer goods are ushered in an opportunity to do it again through the Chinese dividend.
For those of us over the age of 40, the word China is very complicated. We have learned from childhood that China has a large land, abundant resources and a large population.Our situation has changed from falling behind and being beaten to catching up.Choosing domestic products is patriotic on the one hand and cheap on the other.
However, for young people in their teens and twenties, the concept of China is very simple: I am proud of my motherland.Do you think that if a young Chinese person goes abroad today, besides fresh food, he will find it inconvenient to take out food?Many places don't have Wi-Fi, right?Are there few high-speed rails?Do you have to bring cash when you go out?Because there is no mobile payment.
They grew up in this environment and have a natural sense of identity with the country.Of course, when they are more mature, they will also realize that we still have a lot to learn from the world.However, the word China, and the set of cultural symbols behind it, are original and natural to them.The young people of this generation have connected with our cultural heritage in the way they like.
In 2019, there were several Hanfu stores on Taobao, with sales of more than 4 million yuan. The largest one sold [-] million yuan a year, and the buyers were all young people.how do you explainThere is only one explanation, because of Chinese cultural symbols.
In the past few years, the industry has been discussing how we should develop cultural and creative industries: go to Japan to learn, and go to France to learn.Unexpectedly, the 600-year-old Forbidden City has become the number one IP in the cultural and creative industry.The IP of the Forbidden City has become a hit with a number of Internet celebrities, including backpacks, tapes, lipsticks, mooncakes, and everything seems to be available.how do you explainThere is only one explanation, because of Chinese cultural symbols.
Even technology companies like Huawei, when registering trademarks for next-generation products, would like to register a copy of "Shan Hai Jing".The operating system is called Hongmeng, and the laboratory is called Xuanwu.What about Kunlun, Haotian, Lingzhi, and Taotie? Words like these always make our hearts surge.how do you explainThere is only one explanation, because of Chinese cultural symbols.
This is the Chinese dividend.It has a long history of Chinese culture for thousands of years, and it spews out in this era, which can most quickly arouse our inner identity.As long as you are in this country, you can turn it into your own grasp.
Let's look at the third chance.
Li Xiang, the editor-in-chief of Get App, has been doing one thing for the past year, studying the emergence of the richest people in history.He told me that the process of great wealth creation is bound to be accompanied by changes in the entire social structure and people's living habits, which will definitely bring about the rise of a number of world-wide brands.
You may say, building an international brand, can this be done?This year, I heard Mr. Liang Ning talk about a set of methodology.In fact, if we spend our energy and time on this matter, it is not that we have no chance.
Let me talk about the easiest way to test a brand first. Teacher Liang Ning said: A brand is what you are willing to take a selfie with.To put it bluntly, it is to be able to establish real social relationship and interaction with users.How many people you can establish real social relationship interaction, your brand will be big.
For example, if you want to drink coffee and order a cup yourself, this may not be a brand.However, you are willing to take your friends to a certain coffee shop for a drink, this is the brand.
For another example, if you buy a pair of sneakers and wear them when you run, it may not be a brand.However, if you are willing to take a photo after buying it and post it on Moments, this is the brand.
You suddenly want to go to the toilet while walking on the road. There are no public toilets. At this time, you only see a Chinese restaurant and a KFC. Which restaurant do you think you will go to?Most likely it’s KFC, but have you ever wondered why?
It's very simple, there is no other relationship between you and the Chinese restaurant except consumption, but between you and KFC, there are many levels of relationship, and you don't have any burden to interact with it, this is the brand.
Let us try to answer the question raised at the beginning: where are the opportunities in the Chinese consumer market?
That is: using China’s dividends and new infrastructure to create a world-class brand.
This is of course an extremely difficult challenge.But we know, in just a few years, it's bound to happen.
As Henry Ford, a man in a similar position, a creator of a world-class brand, and a rock climber in an ascendant country, said 100 years ago: "The progress we have made is exciting. Compared with everything we have, everything today is insignificant."
Part Four: Where Does the Money Come From?
Financial scientist Xiang Shuai and her research team worked for a whole year, inspected more than a dozen cities, and collected 3 million pieces of data. These data covered 368 cities, 2900 districts and counties, and a population of more than one billion. The 2019 edition of the "China Wealth Report" was released.
This report answers a question you must be concerned about: Where does the money come from?
Let's start with a number: 73%.
In 2018, 73% of the disposable income of Chinese residents came from labor income.
This is not a phenomenon unique to China. Even among the top rich in the United States, labor income accounts for about half of total household income.In other words, money begets money, which is actually a minority, and people who make money are the majority; money earned with eyes closed is actually a minority, and money earned with effort with eyes open is the majority.
After reading Teacher Xiangshuai's book, I feel very happy. No one can get rich casually, and everyone has to work in the fields.This reminds me of a sentence posted on the wall of our office: If you can't do it, you can't do it for money.This is the basic foundation of personal wealth.
27% of the things were unfolded in detail in Xiangshuai's report.Today we concentrate on talking about 73% of things.
One day, Xiangshuai and his wife were chatting at home, and they mentioned that Dr. Haigui returned to China as a professor, with a starting salary of 50 yuan a year, and after income tax was deducted, the salary was less than 3 yuan a month.
When the childcare wife heard this, she put down her work in shock: "Ah, do cultural people earn so little?"
That's right, now in BJ, a childcare wife, the pure cash income is at least 10 per month.You know, 40 years ago, the starting salary of a professor was 1000 to [-] yuan a year. How much do the aunts get every month? [-] pieces.
In the past ten years, the salary of the childcare wife has increased too fast.
Xiang Shuai then posted a circle of friends, which is very interesting: I was as excited as the sea because I saw the storm.
Here is a poem by Rilke that she quotes.So, what is she excited about?
As China begins to enter the [-]-dollar society and is influenced by the popularization of artificial intelligence, the wealth status of Chinese people is undergoing structural changes. To sum up, the connection between people is determining the creation, distribution and distribution of social wealth. transfer.
Please remember this word, the connection between people.
What does that mean?Let me tell you something I heard recently.
We got a classmate named Yue Hailong from the Zhengzhou campus of the university.He is a logistics company.To be a logistics company, you need to set up outlets, and you need to choose a large number of franchisees. How do you choose?Is it up to him?degree?invest?experience?neither.He has a trick in this business: three headed family members and one poor relative.
What do the three masters mean?You are not alone, but you can unite two more people, regardless of whether it is a brother-in-law or a daughter-in-law to work together with you, which shows the connectivity of your interpersonal skills.
And a poor relative, in fact, they are examining the scalability of a person's interpersonal skills, which means that when the business is at its busiest and hardest, when you can't catch people from the market at all, you will always have A trustworthy person will rush forward for you.
What does this example illustrate?Explain that everyone's wealth status depends not only on their own ability, but also on what kind of interpersonal connection ability they have.
Teacher Liu Run told me that a person's basic wealth has two components, first, your own ability, and second, your ability to connect with other people.The latter is an amplifier of the former.
From this perspective, if you look at the wealth map of the Chinese people, you will find that some professions are changing.
For example, real estate agencies have more than 100 million employees in China.According to the past understanding, this is a profession that connects people and houses.However, this is no longer the case.His more important task is to connect people.
Now most people buy houses for improvement, that is, they sell one house first and then buy another house.Do you know how complicated this process is?
First, buyers and sellers are not in such a hurry, and the time for a house to be sold has been greatly extended.In 18 typical cities, in the past three years, the time it took a customer from the first time he viewed a house to the time he made a purchase has lengthened from 26 days to 39 days; while the time it took for a seller to complete the transaction from listing the house to closing has increased from 62 days to 109 days. [-] days stretched to [-] days.
Second, within an intermediary company, it also requires the cooperation of multiple people to close a deal.For example, in cities like BJ, there are an average of 8 brokers cooperating behind a transaction.
You see, in the past, the closing time of a house was short, and it was possible to earn this intermediary fee by relying on a little sales routine, but now that the time is prolonged, this method will not work. Can't make that money.
As a result, if a person wants to work as a real estate agency now, the requirements for ability are very high.He must at least be a master who can gain the long-term trust of clients. Not only clients must trust him, but other agents must also trust him before they are willing to cooperate with him.You see, he also needs to be a master of internal coordination.The balance of wealth distribution in this industry will tilt towards people with this ability.
Let me introduce to you a new change in an old profession.
do you know?Now there are many examples of people who have done very well in other industries switch to insurance.Such as foreign companies, banks, advertising companies, media, and even doctors.Mr. Li Pu, who we got the app from, said that in the past, people have always had the impression that there are basically two situations for switching to insurance: either they are desperate or they have special skills.In the past two years, more and more people with unique skills have switched to insurance.
Of course, there are many reasons for changing careers, but after in-depth understanding, I realized that the requirements for people in this industry are also constantly changing.
Let me tell you about my personal experience. This year, I also bought an insurance policy. At the moment I was about to pick up a pen and sign, the insurance account manager opposite me suddenly said a word to me with a smile: Mr. Luo, if you think about it before Sign it.If you sign, I will serve you for 20 years.
Note that it is a full 20 years.In the past 20 years, he had to report me to the police if I was in danger, and he had to contact the hospital for me if I had any health problems.
To put it bluntly, he has to maintain close contact with me for 20 years.For a mature insurance broker, he has to maintain close contact with many people at the same time for decades.If you think about it, if he didn't have a strong ability to connect with people, he wouldn't be able to accomplish this.
Of course, high requirements also mean high returns.As you may know, it is not a problem for a good insurance broker to have an annual salary of one million, and he still has free time.However, you may not know that the work of insurance can be passed on from generation to generation and inherited.
You just want to wait until the day he retires, bring his 30-year-old daughter to me, and introduce him: This is my child, she has the corresponding qualifications, please let her continue to serve Uncle Luo.Do you think this is inherited?Can the struggle of his life be passed on from generation to generation?
Why can the insurance industry be inherited?Because it actually deals with a set of trust relationships.Skills may become obsolete and capital may depreciate.However, the connection between people can continue forever.
Of course, real estate agents, insurance brokers, these professions themselves are the connectors between people, so their ability to make money and earn money will increase.So you want to say that my profession is not like this?Am I going to change my career?of course not.No matter what career you are in, at all moments of choice, connecting with more people is guaranteed to do no harm.
Does a chef just bury his head in the back kitchen and cook, or does he go to the front hall to see the diners' reactions after cooking a favorite dish, and even chat a few words?The latter is more likely to grow into a celebrity chef.
Will a programmer just bury his head in typing code, or will he actively add a user's WeChat to chat about the user experience?The latter are more likely to grow into CTOs.
A person engaged in scientific research, is he only doing experiments with the equipment in the laboratory, or is he willing to communicate more with people from other disciplines, who are more likely to achieve scientific breakthroughs.
This trend is not only reflected in occupation, but also in gender.
Recently, the CEO of our company, Tuobuhua, held a meeting for the little girls in our company, saying that we should not let down the opportunities given to women in this era.
It's also a matter of feeling that she can't take off flowers, because she has often been praised by teacher Xu Xiaoping in recent years.The way of praise is that whenever someone asks Mr. Xu Xiaoping for financing, Xu Xiaoping will ask: Where is your "Taking Buhua"?
Teacher Xu is actually asking: Are there any women in your team?This point is already a consensus internationally.As a man I have to.Because men are target animals, when a task has a clear goal and a clear path, men are good at it, while women are better at coordinating relationships. , can be dealt with more calmly.This change will bring new opportunities to many women.The so-called glass ceiling for women in the past may be broken.You see, because they are better at connecting with people, women's wealth ability will increase significantly in the future.
You ask me, where does the money come from?Xiangshuai's research tells us that money comes from one's own labor, and money comes from more connections between people.
In particular, we want to clarify a possible misunderstanding. The ability to connect people and people becomes a wealth lever. This is not just rhetoric to engage in relationships, but to improve the ability to create value for this society by connecting people.
This year, I read a passage in a book "Basic Issues in the History of Thought" written by teacher Wang Dingding.
He said that a person can figure out the meaning of his life in 5 minutes. What can you do in 5 minutes?Wang Dingding said that it is to ask yourself 5 questions and answer them honestly.The 5 questions are: Who are you?What are you doing?Who do you do it for?Do others need you?Has society become better after you did it?
These are really 5 magical questions, and every time you can answer one, you will find yourself connected to the world a layer deeper.At the same time, every time you can answer a question, you also clearly realize that there are a large number of people whose connection ability is left behind by you.
The clearer you can answer these five questions, the stronger your wealth ability will be.
Part [-]: How is education changing?
Next, I bring you today’s fourth report, the Global Education Report, from education expert Shen Zuyun.
Mention the word education, and feel your conscience, how do you feel?
My feeling is that this topic has become the focus of the whole people.
Let's look at a data.Xu Da Nei from the new list showed me a watch. From January 2019st to December 1th, 1, in the WeChat official account, there were 12 articles with the keywords of "education" and "anxiety", with more than 30 readings, and an average of nearly 3470 articles per day . "Parents", "parents"' and "anxiety" are connected together 10+, with 10 articles, 10 articles per day.Our generation of parents is indeed anxious.
Statistics on "Educational Anxiety" topic explosive articles provided to "Friends of Time"
If there is nothing to talk about when strangers meet, then it is right to talk about education.
I heard a joke this year: two parents of BJ Haidian were chatting, and one asked the other: Our child is 4 years old, is 1500 English vocabulary enough?Another answer, in the United States is enough, not enough in Haidian.
I have also heard such a thing: In order to let their children go to a good school, a group of parents tried every means to secretly enroll their children in cram schools. Of course, schools do not advocate cram schools.What about parents who don’t attend cram schools?Not idle either.After hearing about this incident, I secretly reported these cram schools.
Our daughter is 3 years old, and I was very anxious when I heard about this.
So, how did this anxiety arise?It wasn't like this decades ago.There are many explanations: For example, social competition is becoming more and more fierce. Without a diploma from a prestigious school, you cannot knock on many doors in society; some people say that because of economic development and more educational tools, the arms race will of course escalate; Some people also said that artificial intelligence will replace human beings, which frightened this generation of parents.
However, one of the most thought-provoking explanations I heard was that the beneficiaries of the college entrance examination, the generation whose destiny was changed by the college entrance examination and university education, also began to raise children. These children are called the "second generation" , rushed into the education market.They most believe in the truth that education can change destiny.So put all the resources into this track.Let the next generation repeat the process.Just like playing a game, suddenly a group of paying players go online collectively, how can the competition not be fierce.
I can't tell you not to mind, didn't the former president of Harvard, Derek Bork, say it?If you think the cost of education is too high, try the cost of ignorance.
The anxiety of education cannot be solved, but it will change a style.
Frankly speaking, there may never be an antidote to the anxiety that people feel for their own growth.Human civilization originally relied on this.But, have you ever thought that anxiety can take on other forms?
Therefore, we entrusted Mr. Shen Zuyun to carry out the research for a year, and the value lies in this.In the past year, she interviewed more than 100 educators, inspected 25 primary and secondary schools around the world, and 12 world famous schools. She found that educators all over the world are anxious about one problem: the educational model formed in the industrial age , has been unable to keep up with the needs of the information age.
And Mr. Shen's core insight this year is: the world is no longer divided according to fields, but organized around challenges.
Just think about it, which one of the things you encountered in your work and life today is not a comprehensive challenge?Not to mention making a new product or organizing a big event, but finding a good kindergarten for your baby and decorating your house. For you, which one is not a challenge?Which challenge is the same as before?Which challenge can be met with only the knowledge learned in school?
In response to this change, some schools are already exploring ahead.
Ms. Shen Zuyun has visited many schools in the past year, and she found that many schools have reorganized the curriculum system from the topic.For example, let’s take a look at an exam question in elementary school——
If you want to add a festival, which one and why?If you want to reduce one holiday, which one will be reduced and why?
You see, this is not a test of your knowledge in any field, it is a real-world challenge for you to see how you deal with it.
Let me show you another middle school Chinese question. This is when I visited a famous school in BJ, I walked into a classroom at random, and they happened to be studying Shiji at that time.How to learn it?Back Sima Qian's birth and death year?Or read aloud excerpts?No, their task is: to write a resume for a character in "Historical Records".
You see, this is still a real-world challenge. What kind of knowledge does it involve?
If you want to write a resume for Liu Bang, first of all, you have to know enough about Liu Bang's life background, what kind of work experience you have, what you are good at, and what kind of social network resources you have.
Secondly, you have to understand the job he is applying for, and you have to know what abilities this job requires.
More importantly, you have to have the ability to travel to Liu Bang's heart, stand in his position, help him pass this job application form, and complete a self-promotion.
You see, this means that the world is not divided by domains, but organized around challenges.
Did you find out that when you thought that the school was just instilling knowledge in the students, the school has already begun to evolve itself.From the teaching stage, let the courses meet real-world challenges.
Li Xigui, the chief principal of the Eleventh School Alliance, told us that the concept of curriculum itself is changing.What is the course?It is not a syringe of knowledge, but to package and condense the challenges in society and the problems that children will encounter in the future, and turn them into courses for students to experience in advance.Trigger children's endowments early.
For example, in the drama class of Eleventh School, when most people hear that the school offers drama classes, they feel that the conditions of this school are really good, and they can learn art.But at Eleven School.The role of drama class is not only this.
Their drama class is not divided into classes, but across grades.Students participating in drama class are not as simple as putting on makeup and playing a role on stage.This is just one type of work.To make a drama work.There must be a director, right?There must be a screenwriter, right?There must be an assistant director looking for actors throughout the school, right?Do you have to make clothes?There must be someone in charge of drama, right?There must even be someone in charge of stage lighting and choreography, right?After the rehearsal is over, there must be someone in charge of selling tickets, soliciting sponsors, and making posters, right?These types of work are all part of the drama class.Each student can choose their own type of work according to their own ideas.
In this way, in the process of rehearsing a play, students can feel the charm of art, exercise their organizational and collaborative skills, and have the opportunity to discover their potential talents.There was such a student a few years ago.He took drama classes, discovered his talent for programming stage lighting, and is now a true engineer.
The scope of the word education has changed today.Because the original meaning of education is not teaching materials, not classrooms, but enlightening people.
This matter has actually become a consensus in the education community.This is true in high school, and so is college.
In the past few years, Shenzhen University has been committed to making it an educational goal to brighten its own students, starting from the admission notice.Every year, the admission notice of Shenzhen University is an Internet celebrity phenomenon that detonates social media.
They send new students an admission box with a lot of content inside.For example, one year, a T-shirt was put in the box. When the students put it on on the day of registration, they could be recognized by the seniors at a glance and get help and welcome from the seniors.There are also VR glasses. After wearing them, you can see various scenery of the school in advance.
This is already great.But when the student takes out the contents one by one, he will find such a sentence printed on the bottom of the box: Only when it is emptied can a bigger dream be contained.If you were a freshman this year, would you think the school you were about to go to was cool?Are you more fascinated by college life?Because you know that your school has already lit the light for you in the next four years of college life.
Many years later, when a graduate of Shenzhen University looks back on his college life, perhaps the weight of this notice is greater than that of many courses.
Still the same sentence: the essence of curriculum is to stimulate endowment, and the essence of education is to enlighten people.
If we understand education from this perspective, then education is a ubiquitous thing.In addition to school education, there are family education, social education and self-education.
Let me tell you a story about getting users.He is a police officer, surnamed Yang, who works in a large prison for serious offenders.
Police officer Yang found that if inmates want to return to society smoothly, they must make adequate psychological construction and ability preparations.How to do it?Being a police officer is really limited.He thought of a way to edit, print out, and form handouts of the good courses he learned in "get" for the inmates to borrow and study.Through this learning method, I don't know how much knowledge they have learned, but there is a signal they have clearly received, that is, there are many people in this world who hope that they will become better and better, and be able to resume life smoothly. reintegration.
You see, this is the moment when people light up people.
Not long ago, a man who had just been released from prison sent Officer Yang a WeChat message, saying that if you hadn't allowed me to study at Get for two years, I wouldn't have returned to society with such a normal mind.He said: "I am especially grateful to you for letting me study psychology in prison. So after I was released from prison, I told myself every day: If this society accepts me, I will work hard to repay its acceptance; if this society does not Accept me, and I will work harder to make myself worthy of the acceptance of this society."
We have been talking about education, but until the moment I heard this story, I really felt that we were doing education.Education is not necessarily what we teach others, but the opportunity we have to enlighten them.
Recently, I asked many people around me, assuming there is a community college around you, would you take the time to turn your knowledge into a knowledge product and share it with others?For example, tell people in other companies in the office building how to make ppt, tell the elderly in the community how to use smart phones, and read picture books to the children in the neighborhood.Almost without exception, everyone's eyes lit up when they heard my question.
You see, there are far more lights in this era than you can imagine.
Taking this opportunity today, we release a small plan. In 2020, I will get a teacher and a college classmate, and I will make a fortune. I plan to donate 4155 hours of public lectures to the whole society.
And in the future, we hope to expand this duration to 1, 10, or even more through our efforts.
From this moment on, schools, libraries, enterprises, and communities across the country, as long as you want to take over their lights, can enter the app and apply for their time.
For the New Year's Eve speeches in the past few years, I asked the friends at the scene to do us a favor and praised us as the best knowledge service provider in China.But this year we figured out our mission.It doesn't matter what we are, what matters is whether the society is better because of what we do.
So this year, please help us release the mission of getting, which is this sentence: get the app, let knowledge become the power of everyone.
If you also agree, please add these four words when reposting: get cheered.
A friend told me such a scene: She once passed a very remote village while hiking, and walked into the classroom of the rural school. There were only a few tables, chairs and blackboards in the classroom, and the slogans on the wall were not ours. Those slogans that were common in childhood.It's a poem: After walking so far, we went to find a light.
Part VI: What's next for China's technological innovation?
Over the past year, we have often had discussions like this: Will China's innovation be choked by the United States?
Mr. Wang Yuquan entered the game, analyzed and screened hundreds of outstanding technology companies, traveled to 10 cities and more than 12 development zones, and formed this report "Innovation Ecology Report", answering this question that we are all very concerned about. .
The situation of Huawei in 2019 has put such a danger in front of the Chinese people.The ones that could be used before are not allowed to be used, and the ones that were originally sold to you are not sold now.
Needless to say, if Google Play is not allowed, Huawei mobile phones may lose the entire overseas market. What a big plate it is.Huawei's revenue in 2018 alone was 7200 billion yuan.Huawei still has 19 employees, 10 engineers, and 1 Ph. Ds. Such a company may face such a threat.This is a great emotional shock to the Chinese people.
To use an inappropriate analogy, it is equivalent to the four monks and disciples of the Tang Dynasty. After going through untold hardships, they came to Daleiyin Temple, and suddenly a word came from inside: Our export control, go away, and don’t give it.Isn't this embarrassing?
But have you noticed that there is a bug in our imagination?In "Journey to the West", on the surface, the people who praise the scriptures are praised, but in fact, the writers of the scriptures are held high on their heads. I don't know how the scriptures were written.It seems like this is something only gods would do.
But is this true of innovation in the real world?
For example, one of the hottest technical words in 2019 is 5G.We ordinary people often imagine 5G as "a technology".
Is that so?No, friends, 5G is not a "one" technology, it is a set of huge technology networks and ecological communities, what does this technology network look like?
(End of this chapter)
Part One: Opening
2019 is about to pass.Is there a specific person in your heart who has lit you up in this year or at a certain moment?
I have got.
At this moment, I want to pay tribute to him, Mr. IM Pei.
On May 2019, 5, Mr. Bei passed away at the age of 16.
He is a man who has left many monuments in the world.However, if you read his biography, you will find that almost every architectural work of his faced criticism and criticism at that time, and came to the world after going through all kinds of difficulties and dangers.
Someone once asked him: What do you think of the outside world's criticism of you?
IM Pei's answer to this is: "I have never considered these problems, because I have been immersed in how to solve my own problems."
You, me, everyone will have such an "I.M. Pei moment".No matter what you have done or are doing, you will encounter challenges of all kinds.How to do it?This sentence from Mr. Bei is the best answer I have ever heard.
So, what problem are we solving this time?
Economist He Fan will answer, what is our economic fundamentals?
Investor Huang Hai will answer, what new opportunities are there in our consumer market?
The financier Xiang Shuai would answer, we want to make money, where does the money come from?
Education expert Shen Zuyun will answer, what is happening to the most anxious education issue in each of our families?
Wang Yu, an expert in the technology industry, answered the plenary session, is China's technological innovation stuck by the United States?
Shi Hui, an international political scientist, will answer, will China's status as the world's factory of manufacturing be replaced?
It is a great honor for me to publish their research on their behalf.
When it comes to solving problems, let me talk about my problem first: find out who the New Year's Eve speech is for.
Last year, we talked about a word called "people who do things".Later, I met many people who said they had a special sense of identity with this word.However, I feel that it is still very vague and should be more specific.
It might be clearer to describe it with two things.
The first thing is about the library.Public libraries have a responsibility to organize various cultural activities for citizens.
In 2019, I heard a number, saying that there is a library in a prefecture-level city with only more than 100 staff members who hold 5000 activities a year.This number surprised me.What concept?If you do the math, the average day is more than 13 games.This library is Zhejiang Jiaxing Library.
Libraries, this thing seems to have been out of our sight for many years.In our minds, it should be a deserted place.Why is Jiaxing Library so busy? What did you do with the 5000 events?
We can think about it first, for example, for the elderly, if you organize activities, what topics can you think of?Music, chess, calligraphy and painting?Health care?You see, the imagination is a little bit worse.Because in the minds of many people, the elderly are a group of people who have withdrawn from social participation, just have fun, pass the time, and spend their old age peacefully.
But the Jiaxing Library didn't think so, they really did it.As soon as you do it, you know that this is not the case at all.
First of all, very few seniors are willing to sign up for an event with the word "senior".More importantly, what the elderly need is social participation.So, the lecture activity they developed for the elderly is: How to use a smartphone?Once you have learned how to use a smartphone, you can check bus routes, shop on Taobao, and even sell goods on Taobao yourself.
The most popular lecture, which you may not think of, is how to make an electronic photo album.Taking photos, selecting photos, adding music, adding subtitles, and sending them to WeChat groups, I feel a sense of accomplishment after finishing.This is a creative activity within the capabilities of the elderly.Note that the emphasis is on "creativity".This is not only the library's heartfelt respect for the elderly, but also a high-level understanding of its social responsibilities.
You see, just like this, through exploration in the real world, the Jiaxing Library held 5000 events a year.
What is "a person who does things"?They are not solving imaginary problems one by one, they are responding to real-world challenges one by one.
If I agree with this idea, how can I respond to real-world challenges?
This year, I stumbled across a story told by Zeng Guofan.In the countryside, a man went out and saw two people on top of each other on a narrow field ridge, neither would let the other, and no one could get through.Why not?Because both of them carried heavy loads and the road was too narrow, whoever wanted to give way had to go down the field ridge and stand in the paddy field with his feet in the mud.
As a bystander, you want to go up and persuade, how can you persuade?No one is convinced.
In Zeng Guofan's story, what did the bystander do?
He stepped forward and said, "Come on, come on, I'll go down to the field, you give me the burden, I'll pick it up for you, turn your back, won't you just pass?"
You see, as long as you change your identity a little bit, from a bystander to a person in it, and put yourself in it, isn't it a seemingly unsolvable thing, and there will be an answer?
Zeng Guofan called this method: bow down and enter the game.
What is "a person who does things"?It's not about staying out of the matter and giving pointers.Instead, bow down to enter the game, put yourself in, and turn yourself into a key variable to solve the problem.
However, it still feels a bit inappropriate to describe you as "people who do things".I have to find a new word.
One day my colleague Cai Yu, the dean of the university's teaching and research department, told me a line from an old movie "The Wind": "Because the nation is at the point of survival, we can only work hard without caring about ourselves."
She memorized this sentence for ten years, just because of the word in it - "my generation".She said: In the words "my generation", there is a sense of home and constructiveness towards the world.No matter which era, my generation is the most fascinating group of people.
"My generation" is just a pronoun, which has no meaning at all, but everyone can feel that there is a sense of proud identity in these two words.
Those who face challenges head-on and join in the challenge are all members of our generation.
Don't think this is my invention, when did people like me start to exist?From the place where our national spirit originated, there are people like me.
The West often says that we Chinese have no faith.However, do Chinese people have no faith?This year I saw a passage, if you sort out the most famous Chinese myths, you will find such a group of stories: Pangu opened the sky, Nuwa mended the sky, Houyi shot the sun, Kuafu chased the sun, Jing Wei reclamates the sea, Yu Gong moves mountains, and Dayu controls the water.
Did you find anything in common?The Chinese never submit to overwhelming power, but when facing an opponent that is impossible to defeat, they know what they can't do.
Who does the New Year’s Eve speech serve?It is for such people.
French writer Camus once said: Don't walk behind me, because I may not lead the way.Don't go ahead of me, because I may not follow.Please walk by my side and be my friend.
Please walk by my side, thank you, friends of time.
Part [-]: What is the fundamentals of China’s economy?
At this time, you must have a question in your mind: How is the Chinese economy?
If you ask me to predict, I really can't, that's the job of economists.
You have to ask me about my personal feelings, maybe I have said this for 20 years: my generation is in a continuous upward channel.
The economy is not predicted, it is done.If you feel good, good; if you feel bad, then work hard.
More importantly, the perspective of observing China's economy in 2019 is not only good or bad, optimistic or pessimistic, but also from many perspectives.
For example, Professor Zeng Ming said: "The easy money must be gone, and everyone will have to work harder in the future."
Regarding the more difficult things, Professor Zeng Ming has a further explanation: Don’t think that it’s harder to go to the sinking market, and don’t think that it’s harder to find subdivided needs, this doesn’t count.The real opportunity is to transform every traditional industry that deserves to be reconstructed. This is a creative "drudgery".
You see, in the eyes of Professor Zeng Ming, whether the Chinese economy is hot or cold is not a question of overall good or bad, but a question of what to do and how to do it.If you are willing to do hard work, you will have a chance, but if you just want to earn easy money, you will have no chance.
The philanthropist Wang Bing reminded me that the economic phenomenon in 2019 is essentially due to the fact that the speed of technological progress is too fast, while the speed of social evolution is too slow, and there is friction between the two.
For example, many people still want to get divorced when they are half a century old. Why?Because of the advancement of medical technology, the life of a hundred years may become the norm. It is normal for a couple to divorce in their 60s and [-]s. It used to be the end of the toleration, and now they have to endure it for another [-] or [-] years.You can see that what he is talking about is the problem of dislocation of the times, not the problem of pessimism and optimism.
For another example, Liang Ning, a business observer, said that someone showed her a list of more than 100 troubled companies, and she discovered a problem: for every troubled company, there are corresponding positive models in the same industry.
Yedao Lugui Liquor, which makes health wine, is in trouble, but food that focuses on health concepts has begun to explode.
Huiyuan Juice, which makes beverages, is in trouble, but a group of young beverages have begun to emerge.
It is said that clothing is not good, and Li Ning has become China's Li Ning, which has become popular and has become a national trend.
Liang Ning said that the reason behind this is that the market population has changed.do you know?The number of people living in this land of China now, those born after the reform and opening up, exceeds those before.
You see, she is talking about demographic issues, not overall good and bad, pessimistic and optimistic issues.
When Mr. Wu Bofan faced my question, the answer he gave was more interesting. He gave me a sentence: 2019 is a typical "paradox year", with both good and bad, parallel at the same time.
Investor Zhang Ying suggested an angle, which I think is also very interesting.
For a period of time in the second half of this year, Zhang Ying organized people to watch movies every day, and mobilized all entrepreneurs to watch a documentary-"Freehand Rock Climbing".
Why is Zhang Ying so active in attracting people to watch this documentary?He is an investor, and he is actually telling the entrepreneurs of this era: The process of freehand rock climbing is not to overcome difficulties, but to get used to them.
I understand that Zhang Ying has another meaning, which is that the Chinese economy has reached a point where it needs to switch from one mode to another. I call it: switching from the elevator mode to the rock climbing mode.
What's the meaning?The so-called elevator refers to those stable and exact passages.In the past, the way we understood the world was that as long as we got on the elevator, we could go up, and we were very sure: if you study hard, you can be admitted to a good university; It must make more money than selling lipstick. This year, you can try to talk about it in front of Li Jiaqi?
Now China has switched to rock climbing mode, where to climb next, every step is a test of our creativity and ability to choose.
None of the teachers we mentioned just now used the simple method of "good" or "bad" to judge China.
Next, we will open the report brought back by Mr. He Fan: "He Fan China Economic Report".He was the first of the six research teams we sent out.They visited more than 40 cities, dozens of industries, and interviewed nearly 300 people.Take a look at what is the basic disk that supports our Chinese economy to where it is today?On this basic disk, how should we act?
Teacher He Fan gave me a revelation: In China in this era, switching from elevator mode to rock climbing mode is actually not as difficult as we imagined.
When it comes to the fundamentals of the Chinese economy, we first think of——
Extremely complete infrastructure, the world's largest supply chain system, the world's largest unified market, and an uninterrupted civilization consensus. Of course, all of this is inseparable from the country's super social organization capabilities.
All of this is really about one thing: massive scale.To understand China's economic fundamentals, it is necessary to take ultra-large scale as a prerequisite.But that's where we stop?Certainly not.We have to think deeper.
Hyperscale just means big, how much?No, it also means something else: complex.What does complex mean?Just like in rock climbing, the more complex the terrain, the more grips there are, and the easier it is to climb upwards.
Let's take a look at how complexity has made this generation in China.
Most of our generation came from the countryside to the city, from a small place to a big place, and few of them reached the destination in one step.But at every step, society provides us with footholds and grips—just as a climbing wall is full of grips and resting places.
You just think, today a rural boy comes to Shanghai to work hard. He has no education and no skills. It is always possible to be a courier. He is honest and willing to work, and he can still earn thousands of dollars.Then stand on this point and move on to the next step. Can you learn a craft and enter a profession?Can you do a good job and become a supervisor?
Do you know this person?Butcher.
It's normal that I don't know him, because the last time he was popular was 16 years ago.The media called him: Lu Buxuan, the Butcher of Peking University.The media reported on him because everyone was surprised to find that a talented student in the Chinese Department of Peking University was reduced to selling pork.
We can go back to the situation at that time, and the best understanding of this person's situation is: all deeds are the same, regardless of high or low.Do you think that a pork seller can only do that.
But in the past two years, he has become popular again, because he has grown up selling pork jerky and has become an entrepreneur selling pork.According to media reports, in 2018, their company had a sales revenue of 18 billion.
You can see that in the first half of his life, he was admitted to the Chinese Department of Peking University from a remote rural area. Back then, he took the elevator, right?It doesn't work.Did not find a suitable job.Just consume it?No.Get out of the elevator, even if you go to the vegetable market to sell meat, you still have a chance.Is this the last stop?Nor is it.You can continue to move forward and develop the butcher stall into a formal enterprise.Can you enjoy being an entrepreneur?Still no.Do you know what he is doing now?Becoming an Internet celebrity on Douyin, chatting about pork and life with young people today, and posting a short video has tens of thousands of likes.
No matter which angle you look at it, Lu Buxuan's story is very common in China.
If you look at a person's life, how can it be explained by a simple label or a direct elevator, it is very complicated.These are the various handles brought about by the complexity of our Chinese society.
Of course, I know that when I talk about Lu Buxuan, some people say that he has caught up with the wave of entrepreneurship and the rising price of pork, and he is a survivor.Let's take a look at those people who may have eaten with him in the canteen of Peking University 30 years ago:
Zhang Yitang, a world-renowned mathematician;
Robin Li, founder of Baidu;
Xi Chuan, a famous poet;
Chen Yonghai, physicist;
Yu Liang, Chairman of Vanke Group;
Xuan Mingdong became the director of the App’s editorial office.
Then you have to say that he enjoys some benefits only because he is a graduate of Peking University. Most people don’t have this opportunity. Let’s take a look at these few:
Mi Wenjuan, the founder of VIPKID, never went to college;
Zhang Yong, the founder of Haidilao, never went to college;
Li Xiang, the founder of Chehejia, never went to college;
Huang Zhang, the founder of Meizu, never went to college;
And this one, the national goddess, Ms. Tao Huabi, the founder of Laoganma.As we all know, he basically never went to school.
This is China, no matter where you are, you can't say you don't have a chance.
What is a good time?Just walking on the street, we dare not underestimate anyone.
In fact, it's not just an individual, let's look at the story of a small town.This small town is Wuzhen.
There is an interesting place in Wuzhen.It is divided into East Gate and West Gate.
Dongzha is a native natural market. Like many ancient towns around Shanghai, every household is engaged in tourism: opening inns, restaurants, and selling specialties. Try this today and that tomorrow. It is full of vitality and fireworks.
As for Xizha, the aborigines were moved out, hired as employees, unified planning, and overall upgrading.The place where the Internet conference is held is Xizha. Friends who have been there know that there is a water town in the south of the Yangtze River outside the door, and Wi-Fi and big beds are inside the door.
Dongzha is all self-owned business, full of initiative and flexibility, what is easy to make money, what tourists like, Dongzha is the easiest to smell the wind direction, and the fastest action.But at the same time, the ceiling is also obvious, the homogenization of goods and services, and the pursuit of short-term effects.
Therefore, if there is no Xizha, the infrastructure, order and standards of tourism services in this ancient town will be suddenly improved.The Wuzhen you see is one of countless such scenic spots in China, with the same small bridges and flowing water, and the same tourist souvenirs. It will not be the flagship of tourism in this ancient town that stands out today.
Do not you think so?Wuzhen is a kind of microcosm of China. Some people are exploring the road ahead, free and at ease, but they also bear the price. Some people are building roads behind and solidifying the results of road exploration into infrastructure.
Constantly looking for grips, take a step, take a solid step, and then look for the next grip.Go up step by step.Isn't this whole process also unarmed rock climbing?
When you go back to the world of ideas, there is always such a debate—free market or strong management and strong planning is better, but in the real world, there is no such contradiction.
Anyone who is familiar with China's reform and opening up knows that Pudong and Shenzhen came out in this way, and there are always road explorers and road repairers.
The famous American best-selling author Nassim Taleb said: There are two kinds of people in the world, those who want to win and those who want to win debates.Whenever we get stuck, we think about Wuzhen.While people outside Wuzhen are still debating which of the two models is better, Wuzhen has already started working on it. Who cares, Wuzhen really wants to win anyway.
You see, in a country with this kind of complexity, of course, a new successful model can emerge, which Mr. He Fan calls: an evolutionary algorithm in a complex environment.
And biologist Professor Wang Liming said: Yes, evolutionary algorithm is the only reliable success science on earth.
When we face such a rock wall with so many handholds, what posture should we take when facing the complexity of China?
In the latest report, Mr. He Fan put forward a word: the bonus of ignorance.It means that although it seems that everyone is doing something, there are a lot of people who are doing nothing.The bonus that you can enjoy as long as you are a little bit ahead of them is the bonus of just doing nothing.
Those of us who have achieved a little bit can ask ourselves, are our achievements really due to our talents?No, it's because we are a little more serious than others at certain moments, and that's enough.In the age of rock climbing in China, it is enough for us to be a little bit more serious than the people around us.The struggle of others has made our efforts.Therefore, to be more accurate, the bonus of not being more or less should be the bonus of not being more or less obsessed.
Let me give you an example:
A few days ago, I took a taxi.It is estimated that many people have played.When you get off the bus, the driver will ask you to give a good review.Because five-star praise is very important to drivers, they can be given priority in dispatching orders.Many people didn't give it, often because when they got off the bus, they were busy talking and forgot.As for the driver I met that day, look at his operation:
First of all, when we were 300 meters away from our home, he told me very politely that I would end the trip for you in advance and charge you less money.Hearing this sentence, you must feel that you have taken advantage of it.
I was about to say thank you, but then the driver said something to me, please, if it is convenient for you, can you give me a five-star praise?
You see, as soon as I said this, I was still in the car, and I happened to be free, and I just took advantage of him, am I still a human?
With such a simple action, I felt a sudden respect for him in my heart.I just took his car this time, and I haven’t chatted with him, but I know in my heart that this person is serious about his work, and he will find a way to solve the common problems faced by the same industry. Such a person must To excel in this line of work, the income must be high.Even if he changes his career in the future, he still has a future.
Have we been able to meet such people everywhere from childhood to adulthood?This is our China.Everyone can find their own focus.Take a look to the side and take that little step, that's where you're going to go up the rock.
I know that speaking of this, you are still not satisfied. You always want to ask Mr. He Fan for an answer and a prediction for the future.
But as the Internet thinker Negroponte said: The best way to predict the future is to create it.
Part III: What are the new opportunities in the consumer market?
As we said just now, China is like a rock climbing resort, and there are grips everywhere that allow us to climb upwards.But where is the opportunity?
In the past, we were always busy catching up with new trends, so it was easy for us to overlook a very certain opportunity: consumption.You think, no matter when, ordinary people always want to pursue a better life.
Something happened in 2019. This year, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods will exceed 40 trillion yuan.This means that starting from this year, China will surpass the United States and become the world's largest consumer market.Moreover, China's current average annual growth rate is much faster than that of the United States.In other words, starting from 2019, our consumption power will not only become the strongest in the world, but will also become stronger and stronger.
Investor Li Feng also reminded me: We not only have strong consumption capacity, but also strong supply capacity. We have the largest and most complete supply chain in the world. Not only is demand and supply strong, but our efficiency has also improved very quickly.We are also second to none in the application and transformation speed of the new generation of technologies represented by artificial intelligence and big data.
You see, the largest supply, the largest demand, and the fastest efficiency improvement, these three variables are concentrated in one country and one market at the same time, which is extremely rare in human history.what will happenThe result will definitely exceed our expectations.
Therefore, after looking at more than 1000 consumer projects, Huang Hai, an investor, brought back a survey report on China's consumer market: "China Consumer Industry Report".
Mr. Huang Hai made a judgment: China's consumer market is exploding at multiple points.
You may have seen many phenomena such as Internet celebrities carrying goods, blind boxes, and trendy brands. So what does this consumer market have to do with each of us?What are the handles that can help everyone climb up?
There are at least three huge opportunities:
First, new infrastructure.
Let's start with a phenomenon.
Who is this year’s Tmall cosmetics brand champion?Perfect Diary, a brand new Chinese brand.
A more interesting point is the history of the top three cosmetics on Tmall: L’Oreal Paris for 112 years, Estee Lauder for 73 years, and Perfect Diary for only 2 years.
If you go back to ten years ago and build a new brand and start an industry, you will not even be able to put the factory into production in two years.Not to mention, it takes time to build a brand, communicate channels, and scale up.Why did Perfect Diary become number one in only 2 years?
Because it makes good use of China's new infrastructure.
Infrastructure doesn't just refer to railways, roads and airports.It refers to all the things that an innovator can safely throw out and let others do.
We still take Chinese cosmetics as an example.In today's Chinese market, if you want to start a new cosmetics brand, you don't have to do many things yourself.You only need to do one thing well: define your core competence that cannot be outsourced.For example, understand users, connect users, and serve users well. All the remaining R&D design, manufacturing, logistics, and marketing platforms have ready-made infrastructure to provide you with a complete set of solutions.
Let's take another look at China's new infrastructure——
If I have a reliable plan, how can this plan become a product?China's huge manufacturing strength is my backing.
Once you have the goods, where will you sell them?China's powerful e-commerce platform is my infrastructure. Through it, I can reach 8 million users.
E-commerce is struggling, is this over?Below the e-commerce platform is a well-developed logistics system. The average express cost of 1 US dollar can transport the whole country.This is a miracle all over the world.
What about looking down?Below China's logistics is the result of decades of uninterrupted village-to-village projects.In such a large area of land, every village must be connected to electricity, roads, and the Internet.
do you know?In some remote areas, the average investment per household is 4 yuan just to achieve the goal of electrification, and it will take 100 years to recover the cost if it relies on electricity bills.
With these infrastructures, even if you are in a remote rural area, as long as you understand the needs, express and communicate.You can use these infrastructures to become your own grasp.Sell the eggplant, pepper, and tomato for a flower.Get rich on the spot, rise on the spot.
Therefore, when we are happily watching rural guys bringing goods and selling local specialties on Douyin and Kuaishou, you only need to step away and take a look, and what you will see is a world-only, layer-by-layer accumulation, scale. , a new infrastructure system that is extremely deep and complex.
Let's look at the second opportunity, let's start with a scene. In February 2018, a Chinese brand came to New York Fashion Week.They did a simple and rude thing, embroidering four Chinese characters, square and square, on their chests.
This design exploded on Chinese social media.Who is crazy retweeting?Young people, post-95s.Many of them don't even know who Li Ning himself is.They simply think that the four square Chinese characters "China Lining" on the chest are so cool and powerful.
Li-Ning's most fashionable shoe in 2019, do you know what the post-00s praise it the most? In addition to the Two-dimensional spirit, there is another word that I can't think of: 'sense of stepping on shit'.What's the meaning?It's just that the shoes feel soft and follow the feet when walking, like stepping on shit.Young people will write on social media: blow it up!
You see, this is what the brand "China Lining" looks like in the hearts of the younger generation of consumers.
With the "China Lining" sub-brand, after many years of silence, Li Ning's sales entered the [-] billion RMB club for the first time, and its stock price tripled.How do you explain this?
From Li Ning to China Li Ning, writing the word "China" grandly on the chest instantly ignited the original pride and recognition in the hearts of contemporary young people.
The only reasonable explanation is four words - China dividend.
Today, almost all consumer goods are ushered in an opportunity to do it again through the Chinese dividend.
For those of us over the age of 40, the word China is very complicated. We have learned from childhood that China has a large land, abundant resources and a large population.Our situation has changed from falling behind and being beaten to catching up.Choosing domestic products is patriotic on the one hand and cheap on the other.
However, for young people in their teens and twenties, the concept of China is very simple: I am proud of my motherland.Do you think that if a young Chinese person goes abroad today, besides fresh food, he will find it inconvenient to take out food?Many places don't have Wi-Fi, right?Are there few high-speed rails?Do you have to bring cash when you go out?Because there is no mobile payment.
They grew up in this environment and have a natural sense of identity with the country.Of course, when they are more mature, they will also realize that we still have a lot to learn from the world.However, the word China, and the set of cultural symbols behind it, are original and natural to them.The young people of this generation have connected with our cultural heritage in the way they like.
In 2019, there were several Hanfu stores on Taobao, with sales of more than 4 million yuan. The largest one sold [-] million yuan a year, and the buyers were all young people.how do you explainThere is only one explanation, because of Chinese cultural symbols.
In the past few years, the industry has been discussing how we should develop cultural and creative industries: go to Japan to learn, and go to France to learn.Unexpectedly, the 600-year-old Forbidden City has become the number one IP in the cultural and creative industry.The IP of the Forbidden City has become a hit with a number of Internet celebrities, including backpacks, tapes, lipsticks, mooncakes, and everything seems to be available.how do you explainThere is only one explanation, because of Chinese cultural symbols.
Even technology companies like Huawei, when registering trademarks for next-generation products, would like to register a copy of "Shan Hai Jing".The operating system is called Hongmeng, and the laboratory is called Xuanwu.What about Kunlun, Haotian, Lingzhi, and Taotie? Words like these always make our hearts surge.how do you explainThere is only one explanation, because of Chinese cultural symbols.
This is the Chinese dividend.It has a long history of Chinese culture for thousands of years, and it spews out in this era, which can most quickly arouse our inner identity.As long as you are in this country, you can turn it into your own grasp.
Let's look at the third chance.
Li Xiang, the editor-in-chief of Get App, has been doing one thing for the past year, studying the emergence of the richest people in history.He told me that the process of great wealth creation is bound to be accompanied by changes in the entire social structure and people's living habits, which will definitely bring about the rise of a number of world-wide brands.
You may say, building an international brand, can this be done?This year, I heard Mr. Liang Ning talk about a set of methodology.In fact, if we spend our energy and time on this matter, it is not that we have no chance.
Let me talk about the easiest way to test a brand first. Teacher Liang Ning said: A brand is what you are willing to take a selfie with.To put it bluntly, it is to be able to establish real social relationship and interaction with users.How many people you can establish real social relationship interaction, your brand will be big.
For example, if you want to drink coffee and order a cup yourself, this may not be a brand.However, you are willing to take your friends to a certain coffee shop for a drink, this is the brand.
For another example, if you buy a pair of sneakers and wear them when you run, it may not be a brand.However, if you are willing to take a photo after buying it and post it on Moments, this is the brand.
You suddenly want to go to the toilet while walking on the road. There are no public toilets. At this time, you only see a Chinese restaurant and a KFC. Which restaurant do you think you will go to?Most likely it’s KFC, but have you ever wondered why?
It's very simple, there is no other relationship between you and the Chinese restaurant except consumption, but between you and KFC, there are many levels of relationship, and you don't have any burden to interact with it, this is the brand.
Let us try to answer the question raised at the beginning: where are the opportunities in the Chinese consumer market?
That is: using China’s dividends and new infrastructure to create a world-class brand.
This is of course an extremely difficult challenge.But we know, in just a few years, it's bound to happen.
As Henry Ford, a man in a similar position, a creator of a world-class brand, and a rock climber in an ascendant country, said 100 years ago: "The progress we have made is exciting. Compared with everything we have, everything today is insignificant."
Part Four: Where Does the Money Come From?
Financial scientist Xiang Shuai and her research team worked for a whole year, inspected more than a dozen cities, and collected 3 million pieces of data. These data covered 368 cities, 2900 districts and counties, and a population of more than one billion. The 2019 edition of the "China Wealth Report" was released.
This report answers a question you must be concerned about: Where does the money come from?
Let's start with a number: 73%.
In 2018, 73% of the disposable income of Chinese residents came from labor income.
This is not a phenomenon unique to China. Even among the top rich in the United States, labor income accounts for about half of total household income.In other words, money begets money, which is actually a minority, and people who make money are the majority; money earned with eyes closed is actually a minority, and money earned with effort with eyes open is the majority.
After reading Teacher Xiangshuai's book, I feel very happy. No one can get rich casually, and everyone has to work in the fields.This reminds me of a sentence posted on the wall of our office: If you can't do it, you can't do it for money.This is the basic foundation of personal wealth.
27% of the things were unfolded in detail in Xiangshuai's report.Today we concentrate on talking about 73% of things.
One day, Xiangshuai and his wife were chatting at home, and they mentioned that Dr. Haigui returned to China as a professor, with a starting salary of 50 yuan a year, and after income tax was deducted, the salary was less than 3 yuan a month.
When the childcare wife heard this, she put down her work in shock: "Ah, do cultural people earn so little?"
That's right, now in BJ, a childcare wife, the pure cash income is at least 10 per month.You know, 40 years ago, the starting salary of a professor was 1000 to [-] yuan a year. How much do the aunts get every month? [-] pieces.
In the past ten years, the salary of the childcare wife has increased too fast.
Xiang Shuai then posted a circle of friends, which is very interesting: I was as excited as the sea because I saw the storm.
Here is a poem by Rilke that she quotes.So, what is she excited about?
As China begins to enter the [-]-dollar society and is influenced by the popularization of artificial intelligence, the wealth status of Chinese people is undergoing structural changes. To sum up, the connection between people is determining the creation, distribution and distribution of social wealth. transfer.
Please remember this word, the connection between people.
What does that mean?Let me tell you something I heard recently.
We got a classmate named Yue Hailong from the Zhengzhou campus of the university.He is a logistics company.To be a logistics company, you need to set up outlets, and you need to choose a large number of franchisees. How do you choose?Is it up to him?degree?invest?experience?neither.He has a trick in this business: three headed family members and one poor relative.
What do the three masters mean?You are not alone, but you can unite two more people, regardless of whether it is a brother-in-law or a daughter-in-law to work together with you, which shows the connectivity of your interpersonal skills.
And a poor relative, in fact, they are examining the scalability of a person's interpersonal skills, which means that when the business is at its busiest and hardest, when you can't catch people from the market at all, you will always have A trustworthy person will rush forward for you.
What does this example illustrate?Explain that everyone's wealth status depends not only on their own ability, but also on what kind of interpersonal connection ability they have.
Teacher Liu Run told me that a person's basic wealth has two components, first, your own ability, and second, your ability to connect with other people.The latter is an amplifier of the former.
From this perspective, if you look at the wealth map of the Chinese people, you will find that some professions are changing.
For example, real estate agencies have more than 100 million employees in China.According to the past understanding, this is a profession that connects people and houses.However, this is no longer the case.His more important task is to connect people.
Now most people buy houses for improvement, that is, they sell one house first and then buy another house.Do you know how complicated this process is?
First, buyers and sellers are not in such a hurry, and the time for a house to be sold has been greatly extended.In 18 typical cities, in the past three years, the time it took a customer from the first time he viewed a house to the time he made a purchase has lengthened from 26 days to 39 days; while the time it took for a seller to complete the transaction from listing the house to closing has increased from 62 days to 109 days. [-] days stretched to [-] days.
Second, within an intermediary company, it also requires the cooperation of multiple people to close a deal.For example, in cities like BJ, there are an average of 8 brokers cooperating behind a transaction.
You see, in the past, the closing time of a house was short, and it was possible to earn this intermediary fee by relying on a little sales routine, but now that the time is prolonged, this method will not work. Can't make that money.
As a result, if a person wants to work as a real estate agency now, the requirements for ability are very high.He must at least be a master who can gain the long-term trust of clients. Not only clients must trust him, but other agents must also trust him before they are willing to cooperate with him.You see, he also needs to be a master of internal coordination.The balance of wealth distribution in this industry will tilt towards people with this ability.
Let me introduce to you a new change in an old profession.
do you know?Now there are many examples of people who have done very well in other industries switch to insurance.Such as foreign companies, banks, advertising companies, media, and even doctors.Mr. Li Pu, who we got the app from, said that in the past, people have always had the impression that there are basically two situations for switching to insurance: either they are desperate or they have special skills.In the past two years, more and more people with unique skills have switched to insurance.
Of course, there are many reasons for changing careers, but after in-depth understanding, I realized that the requirements for people in this industry are also constantly changing.
Let me tell you about my personal experience. This year, I also bought an insurance policy. At the moment I was about to pick up a pen and sign, the insurance account manager opposite me suddenly said a word to me with a smile: Mr. Luo, if you think about it before Sign it.If you sign, I will serve you for 20 years.
Note that it is a full 20 years.In the past 20 years, he had to report me to the police if I was in danger, and he had to contact the hospital for me if I had any health problems.
To put it bluntly, he has to maintain close contact with me for 20 years.For a mature insurance broker, he has to maintain close contact with many people at the same time for decades.If you think about it, if he didn't have a strong ability to connect with people, he wouldn't be able to accomplish this.
Of course, high requirements also mean high returns.As you may know, it is not a problem for a good insurance broker to have an annual salary of one million, and he still has free time.However, you may not know that the work of insurance can be passed on from generation to generation and inherited.
You just want to wait until the day he retires, bring his 30-year-old daughter to me, and introduce him: This is my child, she has the corresponding qualifications, please let her continue to serve Uncle Luo.Do you think this is inherited?Can the struggle of his life be passed on from generation to generation?
Why can the insurance industry be inherited?Because it actually deals with a set of trust relationships.Skills may become obsolete and capital may depreciate.However, the connection between people can continue forever.
Of course, real estate agents, insurance brokers, these professions themselves are the connectors between people, so their ability to make money and earn money will increase.So you want to say that my profession is not like this?Am I going to change my career?of course not.No matter what career you are in, at all moments of choice, connecting with more people is guaranteed to do no harm.
Does a chef just bury his head in the back kitchen and cook, or does he go to the front hall to see the diners' reactions after cooking a favorite dish, and even chat a few words?The latter is more likely to grow into a celebrity chef.
Will a programmer just bury his head in typing code, or will he actively add a user's WeChat to chat about the user experience?The latter are more likely to grow into CTOs.
A person engaged in scientific research, is he only doing experiments with the equipment in the laboratory, or is he willing to communicate more with people from other disciplines, who are more likely to achieve scientific breakthroughs.
This trend is not only reflected in occupation, but also in gender.
Recently, the CEO of our company, Tuobuhua, held a meeting for the little girls in our company, saying that we should not let down the opportunities given to women in this era.
It's also a matter of feeling that she can't take off flowers, because she has often been praised by teacher Xu Xiaoping in recent years.The way of praise is that whenever someone asks Mr. Xu Xiaoping for financing, Xu Xiaoping will ask: Where is your "Taking Buhua"?
Teacher Xu is actually asking: Are there any women in your team?This point is already a consensus internationally.As a man I have to.Because men are target animals, when a task has a clear goal and a clear path, men are good at it, while women are better at coordinating relationships. , can be dealt with more calmly.This change will bring new opportunities to many women.The so-called glass ceiling for women in the past may be broken.You see, because they are better at connecting with people, women's wealth ability will increase significantly in the future.
You ask me, where does the money come from?Xiangshuai's research tells us that money comes from one's own labor, and money comes from more connections between people.
In particular, we want to clarify a possible misunderstanding. The ability to connect people and people becomes a wealth lever. This is not just rhetoric to engage in relationships, but to improve the ability to create value for this society by connecting people.
This year, I read a passage in a book "Basic Issues in the History of Thought" written by teacher Wang Dingding.
He said that a person can figure out the meaning of his life in 5 minutes. What can you do in 5 minutes?Wang Dingding said that it is to ask yourself 5 questions and answer them honestly.The 5 questions are: Who are you?What are you doing?Who do you do it for?Do others need you?Has society become better after you did it?
These are really 5 magical questions, and every time you can answer one, you will find yourself connected to the world a layer deeper.At the same time, every time you can answer a question, you also clearly realize that there are a large number of people whose connection ability is left behind by you.
The clearer you can answer these five questions, the stronger your wealth ability will be.
Part [-]: How is education changing?
Next, I bring you today’s fourth report, the Global Education Report, from education expert Shen Zuyun.
Mention the word education, and feel your conscience, how do you feel?
My feeling is that this topic has become the focus of the whole people.
Let's look at a data.Xu Da Nei from the new list showed me a watch. From January 2019st to December 1th, 1, in the WeChat official account, there were 12 articles with the keywords of "education" and "anxiety", with more than 30 readings, and an average of nearly 3470 articles per day . "Parents", "parents"' and "anxiety" are connected together 10+, with 10 articles, 10 articles per day.Our generation of parents is indeed anxious.
Statistics on "Educational Anxiety" topic explosive articles provided to "Friends of Time"
If there is nothing to talk about when strangers meet, then it is right to talk about education.
I heard a joke this year: two parents of BJ Haidian were chatting, and one asked the other: Our child is 4 years old, is 1500 English vocabulary enough?Another answer, in the United States is enough, not enough in Haidian.
I have also heard such a thing: In order to let their children go to a good school, a group of parents tried every means to secretly enroll their children in cram schools. Of course, schools do not advocate cram schools.What about parents who don’t attend cram schools?Not idle either.After hearing about this incident, I secretly reported these cram schools.
Our daughter is 3 years old, and I was very anxious when I heard about this.
So, how did this anxiety arise?It wasn't like this decades ago.There are many explanations: For example, social competition is becoming more and more fierce. Without a diploma from a prestigious school, you cannot knock on many doors in society; some people say that because of economic development and more educational tools, the arms race will of course escalate; Some people also said that artificial intelligence will replace human beings, which frightened this generation of parents.
However, one of the most thought-provoking explanations I heard was that the beneficiaries of the college entrance examination, the generation whose destiny was changed by the college entrance examination and university education, also began to raise children. These children are called the "second generation" , rushed into the education market.They most believe in the truth that education can change destiny.So put all the resources into this track.Let the next generation repeat the process.Just like playing a game, suddenly a group of paying players go online collectively, how can the competition not be fierce.
I can't tell you not to mind, didn't the former president of Harvard, Derek Bork, say it?If you think the cost of education is too high, try the cost of ignorance.
The anxiety of education cannot be solved, but it will change a style.
Frankly speaking, there may never be an antidote to the anxiety that people feel for their own growth.Human civilization originally relied on this.But, have you ever thought that anxiety can take on other forms?
Therefore, we entrusted Mr. Shen Zuyun to carry out the research for a year, and the value lies in this.In the past year, she interviewed more than 100 educators, inspected 25 primary and secondary schools around the world, and 12 world famous schools. She found that educators all over the world are anxious about one problem: the educational model formed in the industrial age , has been unable to keep up with the needs of the information age.
And Mr. Shen's core insight this year is: the world is no longer divided according to fields, but organized around challenges.
Just think about it, which one of the things you encountered in your work and life today is not a comprehensive challenge?Not to mention making a new product or organizing a big event, but finding a good kindergarten for your baby and decorating your house. For you, which one is not a challenge?Which challenge is the same as before?Which challenge can be met with only the knowledge learned in school?
In response to this change, some schools are already exploring ahead.
Ms. Shen Zuyun has visited many schools in the past year, and she found that many schools have reorganized the curriculum system from the topic.For example, let’s take a look at an exam question in elementary school——
If you want to add a festival, which one and why?If you want to reduce one holiday, which one will be reduced and why?
You see, this is not a test of your knowledge in any field, it is a real-world challenge for you to see how you deal with it.
Let me show you another middle school Chinese question. This is when I visited a famous school in BJ, I walked into a classroom at random, and they happened to be studying Shiji at that time.How to learn it?Back Sima Qian's birth and death year?Or read aloud excerpts?No, their task is: to write a resume for a character in "Historical Records".
You see, this is still a real-world challenge. What kind of knowledge does it involve?
If you want to write a resume for Liu Bang, first of all, you have to know enough about Liu Bang's life background, what kind of work experience you have, what you are good at, and what kind of social network resources you have.
Secondly, you have to understand the job he is applying for, and you have to know what abilities this job requires.
More importantly, you have to have the ability to travel to Liu Bang's heart, stand in his position, help him pass this job application form, and complete a self-promotion.
You see, this means that the world is not divided by domains, but organized around challenges.
Did you find out that when you thought that the school was just instilling knowledge in the students, the school has already begun to evolve itself.From the teaching stage, let the courses meet real-world challenges.
Li Xigui, the chief principal of the Eleventh School Alliance, told us that the concept of curriculum itself is changing.What is the course?It is not a syringe of knowledge, but to package and condense the challenges in society and the problems that children will encounter in the future, and turn them into courses for students to experience in advance.Trigger children's endowments early.
For example, in the drama class of Eleventh School, when most people hear that the school offers drama classes, they feel that the conditions of this school are really good, and they can learn art.But at Eleven School.The role of drama class is not only this.
Their drama class is not divided into classes, but across grades.Students participating in drama class are not as simple as putting on makeup and playing a role on stage.This is just one type of work.To make a drama work.There must be a director, right?There must be a screenwriter, right?There must be an assistant director looking for actors throughout the school, right?Do you have to make clothes?There must be someone in charge of drama, right?There must even be someone in charge of stage lighting and choreography, right?After the rehearsal is over, there must be someone in charge of selling tickets, soliciting sponsors, and making posters, right?These types of work are all part of the drama class.Each student can choose their own type of work according to their own ideas.
In this way, in the process of rehearsing a play, students can feel the charm of art, exercise their organizational and collaborative skills, and have the opportunity to discover their potential talents.There was such a student a few years ago.He took drama classes, discovered his talent for programming stage lighting, and is now a true engineer.
The scope of the word education has changed today.Because the original meaning of education is not teaching materials, not classrooms, but enlightening people.
This matter has actually become a consensus in the education community.This is true in high school, and so is college.
In the past few years, Shenzhen University has been committed to making it an educational goal to brighten its own students, starting from the admission notice.Every year, the admission notice of Shenzhen University is an Internet celebrity phenomenon that detonates social media.
They send new students an admission box with a lot of content inside.For example, one year, a T-shirt was put in the box. When the students put it on on the day of registration, they could be recognized by the seniors at a glance and get help and welcome from the seniors.There are also VR glasses. After wearing them, you can see various scenery of the school in advance.
This is already great.But when the student takes out the contents one by one, he will find such a sentence printed on the bottom of the box: Only when it is emptied can a bigger dream be contained.If you were a freshman this year, would you think the school you were about to go to was cool?Are you more fascinated by college life?Because you know that your school has already lit the light for you in the next four years of college life.
Many years later, when a graduate of Shenzhen University looks back on his college life, perhaps the weight of this notice is greater than that of many courses.
Still the same sentence: the essence of curriculum is to stimulate endowment, and the essence of education is to enlighten people.
If we understand education from this perspective, then education is a ubiquitous thing.In addition to school education, there are family education, social education and self-education.
Let me tell you a story about getting users.He is a police officer, surnamed Yang, who works in a large prison for serious offenders.
Police officer Yang found that if inmates want to return to society smoothly, they must make adequate psychological construction and ability preparations.How to do it?Being a police officer is really limited.He thought of a way to edit, print out, and form handouts of the good courses he learned in "get" for the inmates to borrow and study.Through this learning method, I don't know how much knowledge they have learned, but there is a signal they have clearly received, that is, there are many people in this world who hope that they will become better and better, and be able to resume life smoothly. reintegration.
You see, this is the moment when people light up people.
Not long ago, a man who had just been released from prison sent Officer Yang a WeChat message, saying that if you hadn't allowed me to study at Get for two years, I wouldn't have returned to society with such a normal mind.He said: "I am especially grateful to you for letting me study psychology in prison. So after I was released from prison, I told myself every day: If this society accepts me, I will work hard to repay its acceptance; if this society does not Accept me, and I will work harder to make myself worthy of the acceptance of this society."
We have been talking about education, but until the moment I heard this story, I really felt that we were doing education.Education is not necessarily what we teach others, but the opportunity we have to enlighten them.
Recently, I asked many people around me, assuming there is a community college around you, would you take the time to turn your knowledge into a knowledge product and share it with others?For example, tell people in other companies in the office building how to make ppt, tell the elderly in the community how to use smart phones, and read picture books to the children in the neighborhood.Almost without exception, everyone's eyes lit up when they heard my question.
You see, there are far more lights in this era than you can imagine.
Taking this opportunity today, we release a small plan. In 2020, I will get a teacher and a college classmate, and I will make a fortune. I plan to donate 4155 hours of public lectures to the whole society.
And in the future, we hope to expand this duration to 1, 10, or even more through our efforts.
From this moment on, schools, libraries, enterprises, and communities across the country, as long as you want to take over their lights, can enter the app and apply for their time.
For the New Year's Eve speeches in the past few years, I asked the friends at the scene to do us a favor and praised us as the best knowledge service provider in China.But this year we figured out our mission.It doesn't matter what we are, what matters is whether the society is better because of what we do.
So this year, please help us release the mission of getting, which is this sentence: get the app, let knowledge become the power of everyone.
If you also agree, please add these four words when reposting: get cheered.
A friend told me such a scene: She once passed a very remote village while hiking, and walked into the classroom of the rural school. There were only a few tables, chairs and blackboards in the classroom, and the slogans on the wall were not ours. Those slogans that were common in childhood.It's a poem: After walking so far, we went to find a light.
Part VI: What's next for China's technological innovation?
Over the past year, we have often had discussions like this: Will China's innovation be choked by the United States?
Mr. Wang Yuquan entered the game, analyzed and screened hundreds of outstanding technology companies, traveled to 10 cities and more than 12 development zones, and formed this report "Innovation Ecology Report", answering this question that we are all very concerned about. .
The situation of Huawei in 2019 has put such a danger in front of the Chinese people.The ones that could be used before are not allowed to be used, and the ones that were originally sold to you are not sold now.
Needless to say, if Google Play is not allowed, Huawei mobile phones may lose the entire overseas market. What a big plate it is.Huawei's revenue in 2018 alone was 7200 billion yuan.Huawei still has 19 employees, 10 engineers, and 1 Ph. Ds. Such a company may face such a threat.This is a great emotional shock to the Chinese people.
To use an inappropriate analogy, it is equivalent to the four monks and disciples of the Tang Dynasty. After going through untold hardships, they came to Daleiyin Temple, and suddenly a word came from inside: Our export control, go away, and don’t give it.Isn't this embarrassing?
But have you noticed that there is a bug in our imagination?In "Journey to the West", on the surface, the people who praise the scriptures are praised, but in fact, the writers of the scriptures are held high on their heads. I don't know how the scriptures were written.It seems like this is something only gods would do.
But is this true of innovation in the real world?
For example, one of the hottest technical words in 2019 is 5G.We ordinary people often imagine 5G as "a technology".
Is that so?No, friends, 5G is not a "one" technology, it is a set of huge technology networks and ecological communities, what does this technology network look like?
(End of this chapter)
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