The Salted Fish Invading the Entertainment Circle

Chapter 168 "The Second Depression"

The morality of the people in New York at this moment is similar to that of Huaxia a few years later. On the one hand, they are always ignorantly led by various public opinions; on the other hand, they instinctively have a rebellious mentality towards most "authoritative experts". Especially young people under the age of 30;
Yaya, everyone believes you, how can I highlight my own personality?How can I show that I am different?
In this age where people despise me if I am not cool, I don't want to be a mediocre puppet!
Out of this kind of mentality, even though the media belittled and disliked "The Second Depression", there are still many people who have firmly believed in going to watch the movie;

Don't forget, the eye-catching giant LEDs in the Empire Plaza and the constantly beating numbers remind passers-by all the time. This is clearly a movie with a different nature from other movies, and it is full of confidence.

Even if I am not very interested in movies of this kind, but such a big melon, such a big and lively one, how could I not join in it?
........................

January 1, the premiere day of "The Second Depression";
Small groups of people came to the movie theater intermittently, and kept betting on what story the movie would tell, and dared to predict the bankruptcy of the U.S. economy;

war?natural disaster?Alien invasion?
Yes, no wonder these people are jokingly making random guesses.

The trailers of the movie all use the spring and autumn style of writing, and almost all the shots are given to the riots of the people. There are only a few flashes that show the plot of the U.S. Treasury Department's private and powerless statement that the U.S. economy is about to collapse.

Not long after, all the audience were seated, and [-]% of the huge screening hall was actually occupied, which is considered very good in the United States.

Stop leaning, the lights dim, and the movie starts...

………………

Benjamin is the investment manager of an investment bank on Wall Street, and Jefferson is the risk control manager of the investment bank. There is a good personal friendship between the two;
On this day, when Jefferson was drinking with Benjamin at home, he suddenly asked him mysteriously if he wanted to make a fortune in private.

It turned out that Jefferson, as a risk control manager, had discovered a year ago that the company's main MBS (mortgage loan securities), the overdue customers in it were getting more and more serious. A year ago, only a small number of customers were slightly overdue ,

But last month, more than 30% of the customers were seriously overdue, and those who were overdue for more than 3 months had reached 10% of the total number of customers, and this part of customers could not directly find information such as occupation and income. is an extremely dangerous signal;

Then, he popularized how the major financial institutions in the United States transformed their mortgage business into MBS (mortgage securities) driven by interests, and packaged the subprime mortgage assets (non-performing assets) of MBS into new CDO products, packaged and sold to major investors,
So under the stimulation of this false prosperity, everyone began to frantically invest their own money in the real estate market. He once secretly investigated that many of the company's MBS customers were low-income earners, and even one A dancer with a completely unstable income has 5 properties under her name.

Finally, he took out his USB flash drive and plugged it into the computer, opened the data model he had built privately, pointed to the data on it and said: Don't look at the data on the bright side for investors, those data are very glamorous, but In fact, the overdue loans of these customers are all advanced by the mortgage companies, because these mortgage companies are wishful thinking about the future, and they are not worried that those people will not pay back the money. But in fact, the US economy, especially the real estate bubble, is about to burst ,
Therefore, he wanted to invite Benjamin to use his client resources to privately set up a private equity fund to short US real estate.

Benjamin disagreed, saying how could housing prices in the United States fall?Unless there is a million-level housing loan cutoff.

Jefferson said seriously that housing prices in the United States have shown a clear downward trend in the past six months.

The fundamental reason is that a considerable part of these mortgages use high-risk adjustable interest rates, which are equivalent to zero-interest loans in the past few years, but as time goes by, the interest rates continue to rise, and in the next few years, the interest rates will be adjusted to More than 0%,

Based on this interest rate, the monthly repayment amount of the people has soared to more than 1500 US dollars, which is an extremely high figure for those grassroots people in the United States; because the class in the United States is severely solidified, their income has not been increased, not to mention Many people have more than one property in their name, and the combination of the two puts them under repayment pressure that exceeds their salary level;
In this case, there will be more and more overdue; and the housing prices in the United States, precisely because they want to withdraw funds by selling real estate, resulting in a large-scale sell-off phenomenon, will continue to decline .

Therefore, Jefferson predicts that in two and a half months at most, the number of people who have lost their mortgage payments in the United States will exceed 2 million. At that time, a series of chain reactions will inevitably trigger a financial tsunami. Although the company is likely to go bankrupt, if the two If you work together to short, you can earn a lot of money.

After Benjamin listened, he looked at the data on the computer and thought carefully for a long time, and finally told him that he needed to think carefully...

………………

The next day, Jefferson was called into the office by the human resources manager and told that he had been fired for violating company rules.

Only then did Jefferson know that Benjamin told the BOSS what happened last night to claim credit, he was rewarded with a salary increase, and he was kicked out.

Jefferson left the company under the supervision of security guards and was strictly forbidden to take any items from his office.

At the entrance of the company, he saw Benjamin with a smile on his face. He spat viciously, but said nothing.

………………

After Jefferson left, Benjamin immediately brought the BOSS and several technical experts from the trading department into Jefferson's office. After rummaging through the boxes, he found the USB flash drive in the drawer.
After plugging into the computer, technical experts imported all the data into that model, and finally concluded that Jefferson’s mathematical model is correct, but the value-at-risk model and transaction model currently used by banks have huge problems because of unreasonable risk control parameters. loopholes;
To put it simply, if the transaction volume and risk coefficient are superimposed within a certain critical value, the loss can be controlled, but once this critical value is exceeded, the risk will be infinitely magnified;

If you continue to buy MBS transactions, once any problems arise, the bank's losses will exceed its own market value, and it will go bankrupt instantly;

In fact, calculated by Benjamin's risk control data model, after more than two months, people's real estate assets will drop by 25%. At that time, it will cause a chain reaction and a large-scale thunderstorm;
Technical experts reminded BOSS that if their investment bank does not make corresponding countermeasures within these two months, then the bank will go bankrupt after more than two months.

After listening to the technical experts' words, the BOSS issued a password first, and then urgently held a high-level meeting to discuss solutions;

At the meeting, various executives began to blame, but there was nothing to do.

At this time, Benjamin, who was exceptionally invited to the meeting, proposed that in order to protect the company, the company could use the trust of those customers in them within these two months to sell off all the MBS and CDO products in hand. Will lose the trust of all customers afterwards, but at least the company will be preserved.

Various executives strongly opposed it, saying that if the company lost the trust of customers, even if it survived this crisis, it would not be far from bankruptcy.

After hearing this, the BOSS warned the executives with a blank face, don't think about your own small calculations all day long, just think about your career and salary. If the company goes bankrupt now, you will have no career future to speak of. Wall Street does not accept any losers!
Then he made a decision and accepted Benjamin's proposal.

………………

On the second day, all the traders in the investment bank began to make calls to their clients with complicated expressions after the BOSS set up trading indicators and invested a lot of money in incentives.

The BOSS invited Benjamin to his office, warmly poured him a glass of wine, first took out a check of 100 million as the reward he proposed yesterday, and then asked if he had let the bank get rid of the negative effects of unscrupulous methods He also stated that if there is a practical and appropriate method, he will be rewarded with another 300 million US dollars.

Benjamin's eyes lit up, he began to think hard, and finally came up with an idea,
That is to use the funds recovered in the past two months to inject capital into important livelihood institutions in the United States after the crisis, and to bind the government in the name of saving the United States and force the government to rescue the market. Not only can it resolve its own reputation crisis, but it can also reverse Come and make a fortune;
He said that almost all economic activities in the United States release funds from upstream banking institutions and then start the economic cycle. When upstream banks are short of money, how can midstream companies have enough flow to operate?

And every big mid-stream company has countless affiliated companies behind it. For American politicians, these are the sensitive points that really affect the whole body, and they are also the most important source of their votes.

For Wall Street banks, some officials of the U.S. government may be happy to see their death, but government officials absolutely dare not let them go bankrupt on a large scale in the middle and lower reaches of the enterprise, which will cause large-scale social riots; A company that is operating normally is the wisest choice for hedging.

The BOSS thought hard and thought this was a good solution, but he suddenly didn't know which target to look for;

Benjamin suggested that it is better to inject capital into AIG (American International Group) at that time, and gave his own reasons;

He said that AIG has too many businesses, and it will definitely be on the verge of bankruptcy, but the US government will never let him go bankrupt, except that AIG has a large number of mortgage assets, it involves too many aspects of the people's livelihood in the United States;
Think about it, the plane we are flying on is leased from AIG, the building in downtown New York is built by AIG, tens of billions of dollars in teachers’ pensions are processed and issued by AIG, and even the U.S. 1.3 with a book value of 8100 trillion U.S. dollars Ten thousand life insurance policies are also underwritten by AIG;
With such a wide range of businesses and such sensitive business content, how could the US government dare to let it go bankrupt?
Therefore, when the time comes, the U.S. government will definitely acquire most of AIG's shares to ensure that it does not go bankrupt. As long as the timing is right and the agreement signed is suitable, the bank can make a lot of money from it.
As for the public, ordinary Americans are easy to fool. With the name of "protecting the big and abandoning the small", it will be easy to settle it by spending some money on public relations.

After hearing this, the BOSS happily patted Benjamin on the shoulder, signed another 100 million check for him on the spot, and told him that when the matter was successful, he would accept the remaining 200 million.

………………

time passes day by day;

As the number of defaults and the total amount on the computer screen continued to increase, countless private banks and subprime mortgage companies panicked. Each company had to hold meetings for half a day every day, and then frantically dispatched business personnel and entrusted reminders The company went to the homes of those lenders to visit, talk and even threaten;

However, things did not improve, and the number of defaults on the computer screen was still beating wildly;

Private banks and subprime mortgage companies have finally resorted to their ultimate trump card - confiscation of real estate!
Countless grassroots people were kicked out of their homes, watching the bank staff put a seal on the houses that belonged to them, and then they could only drag their families with their mouths to prepare large packages, sleeping on the street, their faces were full of numbness and despair .

In the evening, a young salesperson from a subprime mortgage company was on his way back to the company. He looked at the tents all over the street and asked his colleagues with some fear: "Is this really good? Maybe we should report it to our superiors and take some measures." A softer approach will only cause more serious panic."

The older salesman next to him said blankly: "You are still too young. Capitalists only care about the money in their own pockets. What is social responsibility? They don't have this word in their dictionary; as long as they can The loss is a little smaller, let alone these mere panic, even if they blow up the Pentagon, they will never be soft."

After finishing speaking, he told the young salesman that he should consider where his retreat is. According to his experience, young people who are "not cost-effective" will definitely be laid off, but at least there will be some compensation, such as For ordinary people, it is much better, not counting those who live on the street, those ordinary people, not to mention that their assets have shrunk by at least 1/3, and they have to bear the risk of salary cuts and unemployment.

Then, a bit of sarcasm appeared on the face of the older salesman, and he concluded that, including himself, these ordinary people in the United States have been cut off a wave of leeks every ten years, and they have long been used to it. For Wall Street , isn't this the only value for me as a person?

After hearing this, the young salesman had a frightened look on his face, feeling uneasy about his future...

………………

In the company, Benjamin dealt with a former old client of his with a smile on his face. Seeing him leaving angrily, he looked at the constant shouting and scolding coming from the phones of various traders in the office. Impatient;
BOSS came over and asked him how he was feeling, Benjamin smiled sarcastically and said:

"People in this country are always like this, always thinking of getting something for nothing;"

"The group of fools at the bottom always think about clothes and angry horses, even if they can't afford it, they still want to live like a king;"

"These investors, who can only accept the continuous increase in the number of bank card accounts these days, are constantly avoiding the four words [every profit must be lost];"

"Look, people are so stupid that they don't understand what schoolchildren know!"

"They have forgotten that all they have now is just that we moved the balance of wealth to their side;"

"And now, it's time to turn the balance back!"

Boss looked at Benjamin who looked down on all beings, smiled meaningfully, patted him on the shoulder, and encouraged him to work hard!

………………

The crisis finally broke out;
Parks and streets are crowded with homeless debtors;
The U.S. stock market plummeted day after day, numerous divestment applications were sent to various banks, countless companies went bankrupt, and layoffs were everywhere;
In just one month, small subprime mortgage companies in the United States have disappeared in sevens and eighty-eight, and small private banks have also continued to go bankrupt due to panic runs by the public;

Under the transmission reaction, the rest of the investment banks also suffered heavy losses due to the run on the public and private banks.

All major institutions are constantly breaking out negative news, resulting in heavy losses; even the giant Wall Street investment bank - "Thunder Brothers", is about to face bankruptcy;

And BOSS took advantage of this opportunity to inject 6 billion US dollars into AIG with a return on investment of 100% to help AIG repay part of the debt of non-performing assets;

At this time, the officials of the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve finally couldn’t sit still, and the officials of the United Federal Reserve convened the CEOs of major banks to discuss how to save the "Thunder Brothers";
At the first meeting, the Minister of Finance carefully explained the consequences and social turmoil that would be caused if "Thunder Brothers" went bankrupt, and asked the major banks to subscribe for the shares of "Thunder Brothers" in a pleading tone, so that he could spend difficulties.

The CEOs of the banks below looked reluctant. They were all competitors, so why should they come to the rescue?

After a heated discussion, major banks were only willing to acquire high-quality assets of "Thunder Brothers", and were completely unwilling to accept assets comparable to real estate, MBS, and CDO.

The Minister of Finance sneered coldly, saying that it's already time, but you still only care about making money for yourself?Once the U.S. economy is finished, nothing good will happen to you.

The CEOs of a group of banks were indifferent, but looked at the Minister of Finance with slightly contemptuous eyes, without saying a word.

During the break of the meeting, the CEOs of the major banks whispered to each other, each with their own thoughts. Some banks with their own debt crisis took the opportunity to reach cooperation with other banks, but did not mention anything about the rescue of "Thunder Brothers";

In the following meeting, no matter how hard the U.S. Treasury Secretary tried to persuade, the CEOs of these banks discussed how to help each other on their own, which made the Treasury Secretary's eyes blaze.

The first meeting ended badly.

………………

Two weeks later, Wall Street's top investment bank, "Thunder Brothers," finally went bankrupt. This caused great shock and panic in American society. The runs and sell-offs became more serious. Many desperate securities brokers chose to pick stocks from upstairs. As the situation went on, social turmoil began to appear, with fights and store burnings gradually occurring, and crowds of protestors and demonstrations surrounded Wall Street and the White House.

At this time, Jefferson, who had been fired from the squid, appeared. He found the homeless people, picked a few grumpy-looking people to gather together for a detailed discussion, and then asked these people in a seductive tone, do you like it? Turn over like a salted fish and take advantage of this crisis to make a fortune?

The few people who were called over looked at each other, and then expressed their complete distrust of him.

He first formally introduced his identity as a risk control expert, and then took out a stack of reports from previous media interviews and handed them out to prove his identity;

After seeing several people believe their identities, Jefferson told them firmly that he often dealt with the U.S. government, so he knew exactly where the U.S. government’s tolerance limit was at this special time. You can become a millionaire in just half a month, and you don't need to take much risk.

Looking at the slightly hesitant crowd, Jefferson began to impress them with his family members. In the end, these people nodded in agreement, expressing their willingness to give it a try.

…………

In the next few days, these people began to organize and incite people in the same situation, calling on everyone to start protests and demonstrations, so that the US government can come up with a solution, so as to save themselves and these people from living on the streets like dogs.

This proposal was quickly supported by numerous people;
Two days later, countless people flooded the streets, holding protest banners and chanting slogans, asking the US government to come forward to solve the problem;

During this process, the police who maintained order were on guard all the way, and there was no problem in the first two days;
As a result, on the third day, when the police were maintaining law and order as usual, a few stones were suddenly thrown from an invisible corner and hit the policemen hard on the head. Accomplices of those capitalists;
Immediately, the two sides began to push and hustle. The few people who were gathered at the beginning took the lead and looked out of control, calling on everyone to "show the power of their anger". With some leading instigators, the parade crowd had physical conflicts with the police, and things were very serious. It soon turned into a mass incident. Hundreds of police officers were injured, dozens of marchers were arrested, and the rest dispersed.

This kind of conflict occurred several times in a row, and the people became more irritable, and began to smash up shops on a large scale, looting goods. Countless people happily held free goods and a little money, and looked at other shops, especially luxury goods. In the eyes of the luxury store, the word "greedy" gradually appeared.

On the street full of thick smoke and flames, Jefferson and the few people who had gathered at the beginning were hiding in the violently opened jewelry store, happily stuffing pieces of gold jewelry and jewelry into their bags;

Jefferson said triumphantly to them, I'm right, as long as the incidents of social groups are big enough, as long as it is not a mass murder, even if it is such a strict cross-line behavior, the US government will think that more things are worse than less things The principle of giving enough tolerance.

Several people looked at Jefferson with a look of conviction, planning to call on more people to participate in violent demonstrations, and then earn a little more;
For a moment, the jewelry store was filled with proud and arrogant laughter...

………………

With the continuous emergence of large-scale riots, the US government couldn't sit still and held a second interview meeting.

This time, the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury has relaxed the conditions and asked the major banks to lend to rescue the market, but the Federal Reserve will also take action. In addition to acquiring 80% of AIG's shares to maintain stability, it will also release up to 1000 billion US dollars to the major banks. help save the market;

But the only condition is that these banks must lend out all the 1000 billion U.S. dollars to revitalize the capital flow of various enterprises and save the normal operation of the U.S. economy.

A group of bank CEOs beamed and began to report their psychological expectations one after another, asking for their share of funds. Their philistine and ugly faces made the audience sick.

After the capital share is divided, the meeting ends,
The Secretary of the Treasury of the United States slumped on his seat weakly, with a complicated and worried expression;
The assistant on the side asked him what he was worried about;
The U.S. minister sighed for a long time, saying that he was worried that a large part of the 1000 billion U.S. dollars would not be loaned to those companies, so that the U.S. economy would still be hit hard.

The assistant couldn't understand, saying that this is money from the Federal Reserve, and it is money specially used by the U.S. Treasury Department to rescue the market. How dare those banks not lend this money out?
The Secretary of the Treasury said blankly: "Yes, the U.S. government's money is lent to these banks for free, but it is essentially impossible to force them to use the money. This...is the United States!"

………………

Sure enough, during the two weeks borrowed, although banks began to lend money one after another, according to statistics, only less than 600 billion was released, and the remaining 400 billion was returned to the financial market and started to be used A new round of financial asset optimization.

The U.S. minister looked at the statistical information brought by his assistant, and was silent for a while, then slammed the cup on the desk to the ground, and closed his eyes weakly...

Next, the U.S. economy still did not improve.
In order to survive, various companies have to continue to lay off employees;

Many unemployed people have to file for bankruptcy because of their heavy debts, and then live on the streets;
All kinds of protests and demonstrations have become more and more intense, incidents of beatings, smashing and burning have emerged one after another, and the police are exhausted...

…………

A month later, Jefferson, dressed in a high-end suit, drove a convertible sports car slowly through the extremely depressing streets of New York, seeing only a few open shops on the street and densely packed tents on the street, staring at the numbness. And on the face of despair, there was a condescending and disdainful smile on his face;

On the LED screen on the street, the news is being broadcast: "Today, the Dow Jones Index continued to plummet by 600 points, and the number of unemployed people in the country has exceeded 1000 million. The US economy has further deteriorated, and the former US Treasury Secretary XX has resigned..."

At this time, he suddenly saw Jefferson dressed as a nouveau riche on the street, a trace of ridicule flashed across his face, and then he greeted enthusiastically in the car, but his eyes involuntarily glanced at a man pressed down on the co-pilot. a check;
Jefferson, on the other hand, seemed to have no memory of being betrayed. He looked as if he had met an old friend. He waved enthusiastically. Under the sunlight, the gold bracelet as thick as his thumb in his sleeve shone brightly...

End!
………………

After watching this seemingly mediocre movie, many viewers in it were reluctant to get up,
They were stunned, and the various plots and logical interpretations in it, including the attitudes of all parties, were completely consistent with the America they knew;
Even the data that has been mentioned many times looks decent, and it feels that it can stand up to scrutiny.

Is this really a film made by a Chinese director?
Thinking of the seemingly real scenes in the movie and the terrible consequences deduced;
These viewers suddenly felt a bit cold on their backs...

PS: The plots of these movies are a combination of some plots of the three movies "The Big Short", "Too Big to Fail" and "Storm of Interest", plus some original content. After all, they are movies adapted from facts and can be changed There is not much room for it. If you are interested, you can go and see these three movies.

(End of this chapter)