American Fortune Life

"... Boss, summing up the above shows that 2009 will be a year of world economic transition. From the figure, we can see the surprisingly high consistency between the Dow Jones Stock Index and the population consumption age curve.

The reason is very obvious, the stock market reflects the performance expectations of listed companies, and the company's performance depends on product sales. Sales naturally come from people's consumption. Consumption has driven more than 70% of gdp in the United States.

Consumers need to have consumers. They need young and powerful consumers ... "

Andy embraced his arms, leaned on the boss chair, and listened with interest to a young elite in a think tank opposite the computer monitor explaining his demographic and economic views.

Judging from the current basic economic trends, the panic of the financial crisis seems to have temporarily subsided, and the hope of economic recovery seems to be in sight.

However, real people of insight know that what they need to pay attention to is not what happened in the financial tsunami, but what will happen in the world after the financial tsunami.

As for the ideas put forward by members of the think tank that the world will enter the ice age of consumption, Andy can use a new perspective to look at the future world economy and formulate strategies.

"Boss, please see. From the picture we can see that the last inflection point of the peak period of the" baby háo "generation was in 1962 ..."

The young think tank member stood in front of the projector and clicked a picture with a laser pointer, and continued calmly: "Considering that the United States is a huge migrant country, this population curve has been adjusted by the immigrant population. .

Please note that this number is 1962.

From 1946 to 1964, the number of American-born people in the 18 years was as high as 77 million, accounting for a quarter of the US population, and this group of people is precisely the backbone of American society today.

With the growth of these "baby háo" generations, the American economy has entered a dazzling period of prosperity ...

Created the largest stock market increase in history, house price increases, and demand for international aviation, personal computers, computer networks and sports and leisure tools.

According to the statistics of the US Department of Labor, the peak of Americans' lifetime consumption is at the age of 47. At this time, life is at a mature age, with years of prosperity and strong income.

Once over the age of 47, people start to think about retirement and old age, and their bodies are dying. They have to be prepared to see a doctor and take medicine. From then on, people ’s expectations of future incomes will decline, consumption will gradually decline, and life will become increasingly frugal.

With the increase of age, various yw also started to go downhill synchronously.

Let's look back at the children of the "baby háo" born in 1962 ... "

With the laser pointer on another chart, everyone in the conference room and Andy, who was far from San Francisco, became a little more serious.

"After 47 years of extravagant life, this group of people came to the turning year of their lives, 2009.

The world suddenly became dim, the economic prosperity suddenly disappeared, the financial tsunami hit the shore, and the unemployment madness swept through.

At this time, they suddenly discovered that their pensions invested in the stock market had lost nearly half, and the bank account deposits were always "thin as thin as a cicada" due to the perennial arrogance. At the same time, indulgent lifestyle habits and wanton advance consumption, Make them already in debt.

Under such circumstances, they will abruptly fall from the normal aging consumption curve and accelerate the speed and intensity of tightening their belts to cope with the cruel economic cold in the future.

In 2009, right on the edge of the cliff represented by the population consumption curve, one step forward was the turning point of the "consumption waterfall".

When the last batch of "baby háo" generations passed the peak age of 47 in 2009, next was a drastic decline in consumption cycles that lasted until 2024.

This will be a 14-year consumption decline cycle. Under the condition of high debt, the US consumer market will fall into a long ice age comparable to the 1930s!

Please note that neither monetary policy nor fiscal policy will have an obvious effect on an aging age, and these policies will not make people return to old age after all. Encouraging older people to borrow money for consumption is not realistic. The shrinking of consumption each year will make the current bright economic recovery lose fertile credit.

What is more serious is that the population cycle of Europe is consistent with that of the United States, and the two major economic sectors of Europe and the United States will fall into the long-term consumption ice age at the same time.

This will be a drastic change in the economic environment for all emerging countries whose production capacity is mainly exported to the European and American markets. Countries that cannot adapt to this cataclysmic change will be eliminated and the future will be extremely difficult. "

Hearing this, Andy's brow has already tightened, and he said without any thought: "There are two populous countries, Tianchao and India, their markets ..."

"The bosses, both Tianchao and India, are emerging countries whose production capacity is mainly overseen by the European and American markets. The Tianchao market has not been fully liberalized, and their population policy has made them slowly move forward. As the population ages, the dividends of the population will gradually disappear in the next ten years. As for India, hesitating that the gap between the rich and the poor in their society is too large. The large population seems to be a big market, but their spending power remains to be seen.

Andy did not feel unhappy because his subordinates interrupted him. Instead, after hearing the explanation from the other party, he thought it was true. After all, before he came here, Tianchao had let go of children and listened to his subordinates. At a meal, he also felt a sense of openness.

It seems to testify to these views, Alvetrie, who has been listening, reported to Andy Hui: "Boss, I just got a set of data this morning showing that the revised retail data in January also rose by 1.8%. . "

Andy raised his eyebrow slightly and nodded his head. This is undoubtedly good news. It is good news that can continue to rebound the stock market. The recovery of retail sales is regarded as a key indicator of economic reversal, because sales expenditure in the United States accounts for the overall economy. Two-thirds.

"Has the news been released? This is good news. The retail data makes people feel that there is still a kind of duli necessary for the economic recovery at this time."

The opening of U.S. stocks did not last long, and the gains in financial and technology stocks were offset by the decline in the energy and medical sectors. In particular, investor optimism about the banking industry quickly dissipated, and doubts surrounding the overall market outlook were midday. The market was once again suppressed, and the main stock indexes even stopped rising and fell.

If you want the stock market to continue to rebound, you really need some good news to support it. For the stock index to stop rising after midday, Andy has nothing to worry about. ** After all, he knows that there will be several good news in the afternoon. It was released one after another, but now that he knows that January's retail data has risen, he will naturally not despise such good news that can obviously boost the stock market.

Inventories are decreasing, supply and demand are gradually balancing, and companies that survive will have a more solid foundation and unemployment may gradually decrease. In this case, even ordinary people understand that at least the dawn of an economic reversal is seen from these data, even if this reversal may not occur in the next few months.

"It has been released. If the stock market still moves within a narrow range one hour before the close, the Fed will only be released if it implements a new quantitative easing policy. At least it must guarantee this year's rise and continue the momentum of yesterday's rebound." Alvitre He said solemnly.

Andy nodded, and then said to the young elite who explained before: "Jack Claude, you did a good job, it was a wonderful elaboration, continue to work hard, continue your research in your direction, if there is an inherent law in the economy , Then the role of manpower must follow the trend, be familiar with the laws and control the ups and downs, which is very important for investors. "

"Thank you boss. I will continue to work hard." Jack Claude thanked the big boss for his approval and praise with a little excitement.

"Well, in fact, you can go to Tianchao and take a look at it. For Tianchao, a big market, we can't miss the opportunity brought by their demographic dividend." Andy nodded with satisfaction, then proposed.

"Okay, boss." Jack Crowder knew that his opportunity was coming. Among the talented think tanks, he was afraid that the boss would not notice and could be arranged by the boss, which definitely signaled the opportunity in front of him. How could he not hold fast.

Andy nodded in satisfaction with the other's attitude, and continued to listen to other people's reports. He wanted the role of the think tank to let these people use their brains to summarize and analyze the analysis, ideas and perspectives of this elite group. Open your minds, or else, raise them!