American Fortune Life

The world ’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Fund, has adhered to the principle of “excellent ideas first”, rather than the principle of “power first”, since its establishment. Andy takes this decision-making principle seriously and highly respects it.

To make the best ideas stand out, the first step is definitely for everyone to show their ideas to everyone, and the second step is for everyone to criticize each other and put forward different opinions. That's why there was fierce debate, with regular meetings like the Roman Forum.

In the case of disagreement, how to make a decision in the end?

Andy's own judgment method is to fully consider each person's different background, and then give different weights to the opinions of people with different expertise, and finally make weighted calculations to make decisions. In this case, both the fairness of the decision-making process and the scientific and feasible results of the final decision-making results are guaranteed.

Of course, the ideas and viewpoints that stand out need to be considered by the chief adviser of the think tank of Alvetlé. This is a rigorous and systematic decision-making mechanism, so that good ideas can be implemented into action.

There was no way, Andy didn't want to be so troublesome. Isn't it just making money? It's enough to open a golden finger as a passer-by. The problem is that Andy is only 22 years old this year. By 2015, he was only in his thirties. Once there is no strategic vision and the advantages brought by crossing, Andy cannot guarantee whether he will do it in an unknown future. Make a failed decision.

Since crossing, everything he has done is successful, because he knows exactly how to do it. Similarly, success will only make him path dependent, repeating past behaviors and failing to achieve progress.

Human nature is conceited, and everyone hopes that their abilities will be recognized by others. Andy cannot guarantee that he will swell. Once someone disagrees with his point of view, he may subconsciously regard his disapproval as a challenge and even get angry. In this state, it is very likely that the performance will be abnormal, and the decision may also be wrong, so that the set goals cannot be achieved.

Everyone has blind spots. Some people are short-sighted, and things that are far away are naturally unclear. Some people are far-sighted, and things that are near are not clear. Everyone is the same when thinking about problems. The personal thinking mode may lead to the inability to make an accurate and comprehensive assessment of the situation.

Andy is thinking ahead of time, and now starts to cultivate a team that can firmly maintain his correct position, so that he can get used to the principle of decision-making with excellent ideas, and **** his family business and career, even if there is no crossing Foresight.

"If you don't seek all things, you don't have a moment; if you don't seek the whole thing, you don't have a realm." Or it ’s more appropriate to express it with peace of mind. The people quarreled and blushed, and their opinions were rejected by the relentless refusal of the sitting subordinates. I would like to see a lot of detailed reports and a summary of the content of each discussion whenever I have time.

Some people may think that this is a provocation to Andy's authority, the communication between subordinates is too rude, and it will make people feel that they are often in a state of being questioned and very depressed. But Andy feels that his risk management team really doesn't need it.

The investment industry is an industry that requires extreme rationality, and personal emotions need to be blocked. Extremely rational people can accept rude feedback and questions from others, not be kidnapped and influenced by personal and market emotions, and adhere to their investment principles. Therefore, it is easier to stand out in the market.

At the same time, Andy is also in order to test his own discretion and exercise his arrogance.

Andy nestled comfortably in the boss chair, squinting his eyes and other people in the conference room to look at the only tall young man standing. The hair was combed at three or seven points. Because the hair was a bit short, use gel or It is made of wax. The sleeves of the white shirt are rolled up, and they are not frightened. The expression on his face is full of confidence and calmness. He explained his opinions to everyone. Before that, he had used a lot of data to eliminate the views of the other two people. Already.

"... This subprime mortgage crisis has transformed the Fed from a monetary policy that used to control inflation to a monetary policy that prevents economic downturns. In order to save the market, in addition to continuously transfusing blood into the financial system, the Fed will continue to use interest rate reductions , And continuously reduce the overnight lending rates of commercial banks.

After all, there are not many cards that the Fed can play. The spread between the US dollar, the euro, and the British pound will greatly increase. At the same time, it is expected that banks in other countries will sell the dollar, which makes the downward pressure on the dollar even greater. The continuous devaluation of those who are opportunistic will inevitably miss this opportunity, and the price of crude oil will skyrocket. Now the price of crude oil is $ 65 per barrel, and the expected price I analyzed has at least doubled ... Please help me to share it. This is evidence of my conclusions about the data. "

Andy also took a small file and smiled and said to the young people who are still distributing materials: "Martin, I thought you, the foreign exchange analyst, would target the depreciation of the US dollar, but you did n’t expect you to focus on crude oil. , So prepared. "

Martin Enlong with a bright smile on his face, showing a big white tooth, looking at his big boss with a smile and holding up the documents in his hand said: "The depreciation of the US dollar is certain, but in order to save the market, governments will certainly Increasing blood transfusion to the financial system, after all, it is not only the Federal Reserve that prints money at home with full force. Everyone is printing money wildly at home. In this case, short foreign exchange can make money, but the amount of funds invested is directly proportional to the profit. "On the contrary, no crude oil futures can obtain higher value."

Andy nodded in agreement and began to open up the data analysis data in his hands. The entire meeting room fell into a brief silence, and only the sound of breathing and flipping paper could be heard.

Andy's eyes do not forget that the plug-in can make his reading speed much faster than ordinary people. After reading the data at a glance, he closed his eyes and switched to the supernatural state, and began to look through his mind about the price of crude oil in this period.

However, as several memories were searched out, Andy's brows could not help but frown. He only remembered a program he had watched. What experts analyzed was that since 911 in 2001, the price of crude oil has been rising continuously. The crazy price of $ 20 per barrel until 2008 was close to the crazy price of $ 150 per barrel. The reason was that the United States had been stubbornly bad and wanted to pit the rabbit country and instead let Iran live. Then the worst period of the financial crisis, crude oil fell again. To $ 40 a barrel, and the show said it was a deadly killer used by the United States to bring down the Russian economy.

From this point of view, Martin's analysis is very accurate. Crude oil will skyrocket, but Andy really can't find the time node for the fall, but forget it, it is enough to set a closing line, not to chase the highest point. Just set a baseline of $ 140 per barrel.

Thinking of this, Andy opened his eyes, and his frowning eyebrows stretched out at the same time, a happy faint smile appeared on his face. After glancing at Martin's bland face, he looked at the material that was still being read carefully. The slightly wrinkled Arvitelli awaits his comment.

"This plan is feasible!" Al finally finished looking, staring at Andy, seeing the smile on the big boss's face, he also smiled slightly, and looked around the sitting people for a week, and then spoke his comment.

"Well, Martin, you will go to the Liberty City Investment Company to set up your team in a while, and give you 200 million U.S. dollars, and after the robbery of the British pound exchange rate, I will allocate funds for you to operate." Andy took With a smile on his face, he hoped to look at his own Martin, but now that he knows the crude oil price node, he will be relieved. Arvitelli is more based on scientific analysis and judgment based on the data. The plan submitted by the risk management team Once it is adopted, naturally it will immediately establish a team with the main theme.