Consumer male god

There was a lot of excitement on the stage.

The audience was stunned.

Among the people attending the class were bank employees, business bosses, macroeconomic economists, and housewives who knew nothing about finance...

Logically speaking, it is difficult to have one idea that can unify them.

If you explain it in depth, elites will understand it, but novices will be confused.

The explanation is shallow, novices can understand it, but elites are dismissive of it.

However, the bank's big customer sharing sessions only focus on wealth and never consider the quality of the customers themselves, resulting in a huge gap in the level of the guests. The low level may only have graduated from elementary school, while the high level may have a doctorate from a prestigious school.

So most of the time, training always makes me feel lonely.

After listening to the experts chattering on the stage, they finished eating and drinking, and finally went home in a daze with gifts.

Year after year, family after family, the process is always the same.

However, today is really crazy.

When Teacher Han started the class, he did not teach students in accordance with their aptitude, but focused on being simple and crude.

There are very few professional terms and he is always pretentious.

However, the effect is actually very good...

Han Lie lazily glanced back at the PPT and wanted to omit the first point, but the students refused.

“I won’t talk much about the big economic cycle, you can just look at the macro data yourself.

If we only mention the past two years, the World Bank's Southeast Asia Economic Development Report and the periodic outlook reports of UBS and Deutsche Bank are more interesting.

You can read the things produced by the three rice rating agencies, but try to believe as little as possible...

Do you have to ask?

Okay, let me give you an analogy——

There are five large gangs in the city, fighting for territory every day.

The boss has the most thugs, collecting protection fees and lending usury at the same time.

The second brother was Kuhaha, who started the gang by pulling carts, carrying dung, blacksmithing, and selling lunch boxes, and gradually controlled all the middle- and lower-class businesses in the city.

The third child is from a family of weapon makers, but his descendants are useless, and now he is left in poverty.

The fourth and fifth sons follow the boss, and they always play tricks on those who are not good enough at a high level but not at a low level.

The rest are all small miscellaneous fish, and their lives are very hard. If they don't pay attention when walking, they will be beaten hard by the boss.

Where does the economic cycle come from?

No matter which gang member you belong to, you have to eat, wear clothes and buy all kinds of small things, so everyone's money flows into the second's pocket. Every year, you have to settle accounts and spend more than you earn.

Once someone can no longer hold on, they have to think of crooked tricks.

Other people's crooked tricks are not very lethal, but the old man not only always pays for things when he buys things, but also violently collects money when he is in a hurry.

If you want to pay back the money, you have to save money and save money. When you are still tight after saving to a certain extent, the economic crisis will come.

As the crisis develops, some wealthy businessmen can only sell their houses and shops at a cheap price. At this time, if you have cash on hand, you can find big bargains everywhere.

When the boss's money is almost repaid and life goes on, the city will slowly return to prosperity.

The boss continues to lend money, the second brother continues to make money from all directions, and the dead fish and shrimp will naturally be replaced by new gangs.

This is the big economic cycle.

It will continue until both the damned and the undead are dead, or someone can't help but flip the table. "

As soon as Han Lie finished speaking, there was a burst of laughter and applause.

There was even a middle-aged angry young man who suddenly shouted: "Well done! Let them all die!"

"Ha ha ha ha!"

In 2013, Han Lie's interpretation of the economic cycle is too fresh.

The details are indeed not clear enough, but the overall framework is very easy to establish, especially suitable for laypeople to accept.

People who really understand economics may sneer at it, but now most people don't understand.

It is definitely a skill to be able to give a general understanding to an audience with no basic knowledge.

Many young women, whose thoughts were not on economics at all, still looked at Han Lie with bright eyes and listened with great interest.

"Teacher Han, how do you understand an IOU?"

Han Lie suddenly heard a familiar voice and followed the sound, only to see Tang Xintian sitting in the far corner of the front row at some point and now raising her hand to ask a question.

You have a pretty smile?

Brother Lie muttered in his heart, made a note for her, and then explained openly.

"The trade surplus is too big, and the country has a pile of foreign exchange reserves that it cannot spend, so it can only be exchanged for U.S. debt. This is equivalent to us selling a lot of goods and being owed money by the other party. Isn't this just an IOU?"

Such a sentence made Tang Xintian's eyes change.

Good guy, dog men are really proficient in economics!

That’s ridiculous. How come he knows everything?

At first, Tang Xintian thought Han Lie had copied the joke somewhere, so she opened her mouth to test it, but she hit the steel plate.

Although Han Lie's answer was simple, it immediately took root.

Being able to do it so easily and calmly just proves how solid his foundation is.

Tang Xintian wanted to ask a question, but was interrupted by another customer.

"Teacher Han, who do you think is likely to flip the table?"

Han Lie looked up and saw that the person asking the question was a middle-aged man sitting in the middle of the second row. He was wearing a very simple blue suit and gray shirt. He didn't look gorgeous, but the fabric of the clothes was very high-quality.

Han Lie smiled softly and simply replied: "The boss will definitely take action against the second brother. The third boss will probably take action against the boss's younger brother. The fourth brother is in a hurry to distance himself from his poor relatives, which is a mess."

The middle-aged man's pupils shrank sharply, shocked by Han Lie's boldness.

Right or not, I couldn't tell for a while, but this courage to make a judgment is really amazing.

He seemed to want to ask questions next, but the subsequent customers stopped.

"Teacher Han, could you please explain the cycles in the stock market in detail?"

"Yes, yes, let's get to the point!"

Haha, for most people, the money right under their noses is more tempting. What’s the future? Who cares?

But their positivity is a good thing.

At least it proved that Han Lie had gained their trust, and most people were willing to listen to him.

It was a perfect start to a lecture.

"good."

Han Lie smiled and started talking about the cycles in the stock market.

“The market cycle is much simpler than the economic cycle. It can be summarized in one sentence——

If it cannot fall, it will rise; if it cannot rise, it will fall.

It is very difficult to judge small-level cycles. Professionals may not be able to see it correctly, and it is impossible for me to make mistakes all the time.

Today I advise everyone to increase leverage and go up, not because I have concluded that 2000 is a big iron bottom.

understand?

Will the index fall below 2,000 points? It's possible to break it.

Will it fall below 1900 points? No chance.

Look, it's very blurry and not sure.

The only thing I can be sure of is that below 2,000 points, it is the starting point of a large cycle and a god-given opportunity for so-called value investment.

Over time, it's too safe.

Therefore, the long-term certainty contained in this short-term uncertainty is the end of a downward cycle and the beginning of an upward cycle.

Why does this happen?

Because there are a total of five kinds of people inside and outside the market.

One is an honest person engaged in industry, one is a smart person engaged in finance, one is a smart person engaged in speculation, one is a leek who follows the fluctuations of the market, and the last one is a fool who is greedy and adventurous and has no brains. .

Honest people are the first to realize the changes in the industry, such as you businessmen.

During normal business operations, once the market price of your own store deviates too far from the normal value, or if you feel that the industry is about to recover, you will enter the market at a low price.

Open branches, buy back equity, expand business scale...

That’s easy to understand, right?

Smart people follow closely - industrial capital enters the market, and financial capital will soon follow.

Speculators do not react as quickly as the other two, so they often have to wait until the stock has risen for a period of time and the certainty is relatively high before they chase the rise.

This is called a right-side trade.

Leeks are circulating back and forth in the market all the time, and they are the bottom stock.

There are usually not many fools. They usually wait until the bull market and stocks go crazy before they hear that so-and-so has made a fortune. Then they rush in and then take over.

They will keep holding shares and wait until the end.

At the end of the bear market, individual stocks had been falling for a long time, and finally started a small-level rebound, which revived their hopes.

The stock price has been trading sideways for a while, and the rebound is not too high, so I am reluctant to sell; the drop is not too deep, and I have no courage to cover my position.

That's a torment!

Suddenly, there was another wave of rapid killings, and they finally couldn't stand it anymore.

Can I stop playing with you?

In a rage, cut!

Once or twice like this, all the fools have been cut off, and there are no more floating chips in the market.

Those who are still persisting either no longer pay attention to the market at all, or they firmly believe that the market has reached the end, so the stock price finally cannot fall.

When the trading volume shrinks to a certain extent, even if you have money, you can't buy too many stocks, and a few hundred or tens of millions can raise the daily limit.

This is the bottom of the cycle.

Simple right?

Next week, it will be a quick sell-off that scares fools.

The market will definitely follow my judgment next——

Irrational plunge, collective panic, large amounts of floating chips released, and then a small-level rebound started.

It rebounded to about 2200 points, fell again, and then scared fools.

It touched the 2000-point integer mark for the second time, then moved sideways and slowly grinded away.

Why sideways?

Because everything that can be cut has been cut, it can no longer fall, and there is no clear reason for the stock market to rise, so external capital lacks the motivation to enter the market on a large scale.

The whole process will probably last until the middle of next year, until 4G becomes popular and the profits of the mobile Internet industry surge, driving a strong macroeconomic recovery.

At this time, industrial capital has completed building positions in multiple industries, and financial capital with a keen sense of smell has begun to accelerate its entry into the market. Speculators have had enough of 4G-related concepts and decided to take action on white horse blue chips.

All it takes is a little bit of oil star to start a fire in no time.

What is that oil star?

It can be a relatively key favorable policy, or it can be a mid-year forecast from the Bureau of Statistics.

In short, everything is ready, the bull market is on the line, and no one can stop it.

You ask me to talk about cycles, but actually there is really nothing to talk about.

Let me give you an operational suggestion directly——

Don't rush into action next week, wait and see if my judgment is right.

If you are right, continue to wait until the stock market drops to 2,000 points for the second time, then enter the market with your eyes closed.

Then, here comes the point!

Pay attention to find a few people in your life circle who you think are not very smart and do not usually trade stocks, and observe them carefully.

When they start actively discussing the stock market, and the usually most cautious person joins in the fun, sell all your positions, say goodbye, and stop playing.

What is the use of something that is not cyclical?

If you don’t understand the cycle, why don’t you just follow human nature?

If you find a very smart person, immediately hug his lap, follow suit, and copy the homework.

If you can find a fool, do it in the opposite direction, and you will ascend to heaven even if you do it in the opposite direction.

Of course, if you are that fool, just pretend I didn’t say anything. "

"Ha ha ha ha!"

The audience burst into laughter, and several elder sisters burst into tears.

Han Lie's method is not new, but his interpretation is too fresh.

Can the stock market cycle be understood from this perspective? !

Awesome!

It is no exaggeration to say that most of the customers in the audience understood it.

Even if you have never traded in stocks, you have at least been exposed to business and know what human nature is like.

You don't need to have much professional knowledge, and you can easily understand the basic operating mechanism of the cycle.

"Teacher Han, Teacher Han!"

When Han Lie paused his lecture and unscrewed the mineral water bottle to drink water, a group of people below raised their hands and rushed to ask questions.

Private banking clients are smart people. Smart people are not easy to trust others, but they are also relatively decisive.

Now that he realized that Han Lie was a master with real abilities, he immediately aroused great enthusiasm.

Han Lie ignored them.

He drank water slowly and glanced down calmly.

After dragging it for almost 20 seconds, I pointed at the most beautiful and largest sister in sight.

"That female classmate in the white suit, what's your problem?"

Big sister...beautiful wife...little young wife...ahem, forget it, she's just a female student, don't mess with the names.

The female classmate was surprised and excited. When she took the microphone handed over by a Pudong Development Bank employee, she tidied her clothes before speaking with a pretty face and a slight blush.

"Teacher Han, when will your next private placement be issued? Do you have any requirements for the subscribing targets?"

Ouch, good question!

If I hadn't been familiar with you, I would have thought you were a sitter hired by my brother...

Brother Lie was in a great mood because he finally found a perfect opportunity to pretend to be beeping.

"First of all, thank you for your trust."

The doggy man put his right hand into his trouser pocket and smiled in a reserved and noble manner.

“But unfortunately, I have no plans to raise funds from outside.

Today is just a class. I will teach it with all my heart and repay Pudong Development’s respect. You can listen as you like. If you find something useful, thank the organizer. If you find it boring, don’t worry. Our fate will most likely end here anyway.

The size of my next private equity product will be limited to about 2.5 billion, and more than 2 billion have already been booked.

I may be more in demand than everyone thinks, I'm not short of money, and have no intention of accepting any more simple money.

In fact, you can wait a little longer.

If my judgment is completely wrong, you will save money and avoid being deceived.

If my judgment is very different, then you don't need me, just follow the method I provide, and you can make excess profits in the next market.

If you find out after half a year - oh, Teacher Han is really amazing!

That's normal, I'm indeed ready to become a god..."

"Pfft! Ahem!"

Tang Xintian was drinking water and almost choked to death when she heard the last sentence.

How can this little brat be so cool? !

She was surprised, shocked, and angry, but she couldn't say a derogatory word.

The Dead Child is indeed arrogant, but until the dust settles on the stock market next week, no one is sure whether his arrogance is due to arrogance, or whether it stems from sharp and accurate judgment.

At the very least, just looking at Han Lie's demeanor on stage and hearing his unbridled deconstruction of economic cycles and stock market cycles is already intimidating enough.

Han Lie has a brilliance that belongs to a genius that everyone can feel.

Therefore, even though the audience was noisy and buzzing, no one jumped out to question, criticize, or oppose him.

How about arrogance?

So what if you can show off too much?

People act freely on the stage and dare to put their reputation on the line. No matter what experts, professors or elites you are, you have to hold back if you don't accept it!

Tang Xintian turned around and looked around, wanting to see everyone's reaction.

As a result, there were very few people who were obviously dissatisfied.

In fact, most of the female customers looked at Han Lie with strong appreciation.

Today's brother lie is a wolfdog.

Unruly, young and handsome, with full aura and explosive hormones.

The elder sister whose name was called was holding her chin with one hand and looking at Han Lie in a daze.

Tang Xintian's eyes suddenly turned cold.

Hey, you are a nymphomaniac, what does licking your lips mean? !

Have some face, old aunt!

*****

Let me tell you a ghost story. My parents were both sick and asked me to go home for dinner yesterday. Fortunately, I didn’t go back...