Consumer male god

Ping An's classmate was more anxious than Han Lie expected, and he didn't even try to hide it.

The actor Lie was slowly flipping through the catalog. He kept explaining and actively providing various opinions.

He doesn't look like Party A's father holding Shang Fang's sword at all, but... a big liar?

On the contrary, Han Lie sat firmly on the Diaoyutai and took his time.

A complete reversal of host and guest.

But this matter cannot be viewed from God’s perspective.

In essence, Yu Ping'an and Han Lie each provide each other with the resources they possess, forming a complementary cooperation. Their value judgments are not only affected by the times, but also by their respective cognitive levels.

In Yu Pingan's view, the value of the quantitative strategies that Han Lie can provide is far greater than the project information he provides.

Entrepreneurship projects across China have been wiped out. Hundreds of thousands of companies are born and destroyed every year. How many unicorn-level companies have been born over the years?

Engaging in angel investment not only tests your vision, but more importantly, your luck.

Normally, if one of the hundreds of companies of the same type emerges, it is considered a success, and the rate of return is very generous.

Yu Pingan did not hide this when he was doing science popularization.

"Li Shen, I have listed the hottest tracks for you this year. The number one one is e-commerce, and so far 86 investments worth more than one million yuan have been made.

Ranking second is mobile Internet, with 70 transactions.

Ranked third is financial services. I highly recommend this field and it will definitely explode in the next few years.

Followed closely by online education and medical care, but Internet + medical care has to deal with Chaoshan Gang, and my father has handled relatively few projects.

Overall, the projects I have listed for you all have merit. At the very least, their founders are people who want to do serious things, not liars. This can reduce 95% of your troubles.

However, for start-up companies, which are fragile egg-level companies, not one of the 100 companies that you invest in may be able to succeed. I suggest you try to start with Series B and Series C.

The 20 companies in the front of the directory are basically young companies that have received Series B financing. They are a bit expensive, but the security is relatively high. As long as you can ensure the perfection of the exit mechanism and put in some effort to keep an eye on them, even if you can't make any money. You won’t lose too much…”

You've lost your mind, old man!

Han Lie felt Yu Ping'an's sincerity, but when he saw the neatly written lines on the project introduction, he couldn't help but shake his head.

——ByteDance, with a financing target of 100 million yuan and a total valuation of 500 million yuan.

Tsk tsk, you call this expensive? !

Compared with its seed round and A round, the current price of ByteDance has indeed increased a lot, but think about the situation when Tik Tok swept the world...it's expensive!

Forget it, forget about mundane things, I'm not interested in money.

In fact, it doesn't matter at all how high the market value of Byte will be in the future.

What Han Lie really valued was its influence.

BAT can’t get in. Pinxixi is just an e-commerce platform focusing on sinking the market. Didi is dead, and Meituan’s attributes are there.

The only Internet company that can be said to have strong influence is the sudden rise of Byte.

Han Lie can make money from other places.

There are other things he wants that only Byte can provide.

If possible, Han Lie would even be willing to eat all of the 100 million yuan in round B.

Um, it's just like a dream, don't think about it.

It’s better to have a more pragmatic goal - 25 million, 5% of the shares. If you achieve it, you will win.

Han Lie tried his best to hide his interest in Byte and asked from the beginning.

Meituan, Jiuxian.com, Pocket Shopping, Mogujie, Ele.me, Dunhuang.com, Community 001, Palm Huitong, Qiandaibao, Qufenqi, Modu Bank Information...

The first 20 projects are all well-known companies that have left their names in history.

The bytes are mixed in and not particularly conspicuous.

"Why is Meituan listed here? This kind of project shouldn't go outside, right?"

Han Lie deliberately asked the most valuable Meituan and opened up the situation with small talk.

Yu Pingan shook his head: "That's just for chatting with you and bragging. Their C round is in the final stage. With 300 million yuan, you can get about 7.8% of the shares. Three institutions will share it. My old man Yunfeng is not willing to If you get mixed up, I certainly won’t recommend you to follow the investment.”

In Han Lie's understanding, if you invest in Meituan now, the rate of return is quite high, but Yu Ping'an doesn't seem to think so?

Yu Pingan smiled.

“The first thing you have to consider is whether you can get it, the second thing you have to consider is how much it will cost, the third thing you have to consider is its competitors, and the fourth thing you have to consider is the profit expectations... In short, it’s not a project worth grabbing. "

Han Lie finally understood - he was a reborn person, and he habitually analyzed problems from God's perspective, and all he saw were benefits.

What about normal people?

What I saw was the many dangers in the mysterious fog.

Therefore, they will make every decision carefully and try their best to balance the risks and benefits.

Han Lie was not on the same channel as them at all, and their thoughts were too different.

Come on, don’t act, just ask Byte directly!

"What's going on with ByteDance? I really like their joke product, doesn't Mr. Yu want to invest in it?"

"Bytes?"

Yu Ping'an thought for a while and replied uncertainly: "The money they took in Series B was DST's money, right? Maozi's venture capital fund.

This company is currently not in the eyes of mainstream, joke and news websites. Don’t you think their thinking is strange?

Of course, to survive in the cracks of BAT, you can only find another way.

However, the prospects are therefore limited, and there is nothing we can do about it.

And you may not have noticed Lieshen, but the hidden policy risks of Duanzi’s product are actually very high, much higher than other Internet products we know.

Scratching the yellow, this is human nature, there is nothing to mention, various Internet products have similar problems.

Due to the core tone of its product, Duanzi is particularly serious and cannot be controlled.

The bigger problem is that there is too much violence on the Internet now. Netizens always make jokes to target the government and policies. Most of the time they are deliberately distorting or just pretending to understand. In addition, various It is a very bad trend for the beautiful sons of the famous green frog to fish in troubled waters.

My personal judgment is that this product has huge inherent flaws and may not survive for long.

If it's not popular, it's okay. You can still enclose the territory and grow up. But if it is really popular, there will be no buffer. The more popular it is, the faster it will die.

Therefore, although Zhang Yiming's two products have produced good daily activity data, Byte's valuation has not increased. There are actually internal reasons.

Yunfeng will not invest in Byte, and will not participate in rounds B and C.

However, both Shen Nanpeng and Lei Jun are very interested. Mr. Lei likes to invest in the media to facilitate Xiaomi's marketing. This is no secret; Mr. Shen is highly optimistic about Zhang Yiming, and Sequoia is always on the front line of the ABC round. He must have made up his mind.

The remaining leading investment institutions basically have little interest in Byte.

For example, IDG, Jingwei, Zhenge, Echanglichang Investment Department, etc. currently have no strong urge to invest in Byte, and Mr. Zhang himself is unlikely to accept investment from major companies.

Lieshen, if you are interested in Byte, I can help you connect.

The person in charge of Yunfeng's investment department is very familiar with Mr. Zhang Yiming, so it will definitely not be a problem to insert you into the team.

Of course, I still think that financial services and online education have more potential for growth and have a higher margin of safety. There are also several high-quality companies in the projects eliminated by Yunfeng..."

It’s a good idea, but I don’t want you to think it, I want what I think!

Han Lie shook his head covertly and almost rolled his eyes.

The two major sinkholes in the future are the Internet financial services industry represented by P2P, and the extracurricular education industry headed by New Oriental.

With one strike of the knife, Nezha would turn around.

The son of a top investor, that’s it?

Well, you can't blame Yu Ping'an. He is just a second-generation elite, not a fairy or monster. In fact, his performance is already very good.

Real idiots, such as those with square faces, are still enjoying themselves in CT debt!

Actor Lie looked like he was being kind and accepted Yu Ping'an's kindness cautiously.

"Okay, let me take a closer look, select a few more projects, and then ask your experts for advice... How about I arrange a table for you in the evening and you bring the team members to chat?"

Han Lie was still a little anxious after all.

Byte's Series B financing is already in the negotiation process. It's hard to say when the negotiations will be finalized. Anyway, there is not much time left for him.

The earlier you get involved, the higher your chances of taking control.

"sure!"

Yu Ping'an was also willing to have more contact and communication with Han Lie, but he was very measured. He raised his hand to look at his watch and said goodbye knowingly.

"Then I won't affect Lieshen's work. Let's talk in detail tonight."

After sending Yu Pingan away, Han Lie finally couldn't hold back and punched fiercely.

This is different from making money in the market. Big A is there. As long as you have the ability, you can withdraw money at any time.

But Byte's financing is different. Han Lie's foundation is in Shanghai, so he is really out of reach.

This wave, it’s a big mistake!

After walking around the office twice to relax his mood, Han Lie went to work immediately.

When I came to the Quantitative Department, I didn’t even say a word of gossip and started working on strategies directly.

The specific process is simple and boring. It basically uses different conditions to build an overall framework, including stock screening, buying conditions, selling conditions, fuzzy judgments, error correction mechanisms, etc.

In the end, machine buying and selling was realized, and the winning rate was over 60%.

60% of operations make money and 40% of operations lose money. At first glance, it sounds simple. In fact, no company in the industry could do it until 2018.

Theoretically, the winning rate of quantitative trading can reach 55%, and if the amount of funds is large enough, this strategy can win stably in the long term.

The essence of quantitative trading is the long-term certainty covered by a large number of transactions.

However, [certainty] is a false proposition in the stock market. There is never complete certainty in the market.

Therefore, large funds and long-term transactions should be used to cover all accidents from a probability perspective.

Can't cover it?

That is inevitable, because influences from the outside are always present, and these influences can neither be predicted nor quantified, and can only be dealt with passively based on the K-line pattern that emerges.

This part should be classified as a coping mechanism for fuzzy judgment and is the real core of a quantitative strategy.

If you don't do it well, those mechanical external logics won't even be able to outperform the market.

For example, there are too many people who can use the "First Board Strategy" that Han Lie is writing.

Buying conditions: The first daily limit within 30 trading days. The price will be opened within the same day after the upper limit is closed. The stock price is strong. If the daily limit is closed for the second time in the day, you can buy before the upper limit.

Conditions for selling: If it opens lower and moves lower the next day, but fails to launch a strong attack, it should be sold when it rises and falls for the second time; slightly, slightly, slightly.

Okay, I have written a lot of selling conditions, but there is no clear number, and it is impossible to have a clear number.

[Sell immediately with a profit of 5% or a loss of 3%]

Simple is simple, but this one-size-fits-all approach is destined to lose a lot of opportunities, resulting in losses for those who can make money, and only 5% for those who can make 30%.

Therefore, fuzzy judgment must be used here, and flexibly adjusted according to different situations, instead of mechanically setting a number.

As a quantitative engineer, the most important task is to write this part of the code.

It is a set of detailed rules for different situations, jointly building a flexible space that requires temporary judgment.

The better this part is done, the higher the stability of the entire model will be.

Yu Ping'an's own company is stuck in fuzzy judgment.

Anyone can write a buying strategy.

The operations of holding shares, adding positions, and selling are the essence.

The great thing about Han Lie is that he knows the overall style of the market for a long time to come, and he has skills that far exceed the current highest level of the domestic market.

Technology is constantly iterating, and the market is constantly evolving. His leadership is at the dual levels of time and space.

I was busy until 5:30 in the afternoon, and the framework was basically set up.

The algorithm code that can make fuzzy judgments is written by engineers. What Han Lie has to do is to give different weights to different detailed conditions.

For example, what kind of volume, what kind of price, what kind of trading fluctuation means a selling signal, what level of response do different signals correspond to, and which signals appearing at the same time will completely trigger a selling operation...

As simple as it sounds, it's even harder to do.

Of course, in the end, I still couldn't stump Gua Bilie, and I got 1/5 of the progress in one afternoon.

If nothing else goes wrong, in three days, the strategy will enter the actual combat testing stage.

After get off work, Brother Lie went to have a meal with Yunfeng's investment department, and during the dinner he easily talked about Byte's Series B financing.

The good news is that the Big Macs really have no intention of going all out to grab bytes.

Except for Shen Nanpeng of Sequoia who is particularly optimistic, none of them, including Sina Fund and Shunwei Capital, who finally invested in this round, seem to be very determined.

Han Lie has a great chance.

The bad news is that they describe Zhang Yiming as a very thoughtful person with a clear understanding of financing. Yunfeng's background can play a very limited role.

As soon as Ma Yun and Yu Feng took action, Zhang Yiming bowed his head and bowed down... It was just overthinking.

Moreover, Liu Jun and Zhou Zijing in the seed round, and DST in the A round, are all purely financial investments, and they completely trust Zhang Yiming, so he does not lack the voting rights of Han Lie.

This is more difficult than expected.

Unless...do something sexy?

Han Lie thought about it again and again. Although he had no clue, he still made up his mind.

"This weekend, please help me make an appointment with Mr. Zhang. I will go to the Imperial Capital to visit and talk to him in private first."

Yu Ping'an didn't understand why Han Lie valued Bye so much, but he still readily agreed.

"Okay, Brother Xu and I will accompany you to the Imperial Capital over the weekend. With our Yunfeng's reputation, Mr. Zhang will definitely consider your conditions seriously."

Brother Lie thanked him with a smile, without any trace of the anxiety or entanglement in his heart.

condition?

I don't even know what kind of conditions I want to offer.

It really doesn't work...

I can only force myself to bow!