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Upon hearing Sandy Weir's question, Jester immediately withdrew his gaze.

He is indeed interested in Japan, or the Japanese yen to be precise, and this time, what he wants to discuss with Sandy Weir is about this matter, but the Plaza Accord is still four months away. At this time, this plan is still under confidential discussions. Although some people have found some clues from some actions of the United States, it is impossible to accurately predict such things that can affect the rise and fall of an economic power.

Therefore, Jester pondered for a moment, glanced at Sandy Weir, and then said: Japan has such a huge trade surplus with us, how long can our government endure it?

Hearing Jester's reply, Sandy Weir glanced at Jester in surprise. He did not expect that Jester could think of going to this level.

He pondered for a moment, and then asked with a somewhat academic smile: What? Jess, do you think we can no longer reverse our deficit with Japan through purely commercial activities? It has to be up to you. This kind of administrative power you are talking about? You know, some people united before and hoped that our federal government would introduce a proposal to restrict Japan's imports to us, but it was not passed.

Jester is not a professional financial person and cannot understand these more detailed analyses, but he knows the simplest truth, that is, no country can tolerate its own influence on a vassal country. Even if the government of this country can tolerate such a large trade deficit, it is impossible for the citizens of this country to tolerate it. The hostility towards Japan in the United States is already very serious. Under this hostility, coupled with a As a tough president, taking action against Japan has become an inevitable choice.

The previous proposal to restrict imports was not passed, just because the time has not yet come, and it is only a small restriction proposal, and the Americans have not taken it seriously. In their eyes, if they want to do it, it is better to just do it. Have a big one.

The Japanese are still immersed in the ecstasy of growing into the world's second largest economy and surpassing the United States in GNP. They have not realized that the United States has long been gearing up to prepare a huge conspiracy and is slowly waiting for Japan to be caught.

Seeing that Jester did not immediately answer the question, Sandy Weir just smiled indifferently. He continued to speak calmly: How can we save our trade deficit? Let our Is the currency devalued? As he spoke, Sandy Weir's eyes flickered, and his tone became a little harsh, Have you forgotten the economic disaster in 1977?

Hearing what Sandy Weir said, Jester remembered an incident that happened in 1977, which was a disaster for the entire American business community, because it had just happened not long ago. , so the memory is particularly fresh for everyone in this era.

The trade surplus in the United States did not start in the past few years. It had already started in 1977, but it was not as serious as it is now. At that time, Finance Minister Blumesa of the Carter administration in the United States cited Japan and the former Federal Republic of Germany. On the grounds of its trade surplus, it verbally intervened in the foreign exchange market, hoping to stimulate U.S. exports and reduce the U.S. trade deficit through measures to depreciate the dollar. His speech led to a frantic selling of the U.S. dollar by investors, with the U.S. dollar depreciating sharply against the currencies of major industrial countries. At the beginning of 1977, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen was 290 yen per U.S. dollar. In the autumn of 1978, it fell as low as 170 yen, a drop of 41.38. The U.S. government was shocked, and in the fall of 1978, President Carter launched a dollar rescue package to support the price of the dollar.

...Originally, this plan was very good, and it was enough to solve the crisis caused by this improper disposal. However, the second oil crisis that followed completely caused this plan to fail.

It was this time that the oil crisis that broke out at the end of 1979 caused a sharp rise in energy prices in the United States, and the U.S. consumer price index rose accordingly. Severe inflation occurred in the United States, with the inflation rate exceeding double digits. For example, if you deposit your money in a bank at the beginning of 1980, the actual rate of return at the end of the year will be negative 12.4%, which means that money placed in the bank will not only fail to maintain its value, but will even depreciate at an alarming rate. .

At this most severe moment, Paul Volcker was appointed as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of the United States Central Bank. In order to completely reverse this disastrous inflation, he raised official interest rates three times in a row and implemented a tightening monetary policy. The result of this policy was that the official interest rate in the United States was as high as double digits and the market interest rate was 20%. The short-term real interest rate increased from an average level of close to zero between 1954 and 1978 to 3-5 between 1980 and 1984.

High interest rates attracted a large amount of overseas capital to flow into the United States, causing the U.S. dollar to soar. From the end of 1979 to the end of 1984, the U.S. dollar exchange rate rose by nearly 60%, and the U.S. dollar's exchange rate against major industrial countries exceeded the level reached before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system.

But as the saying goes, no blessing comes in pairs, and no misfortune comes alone. It is precisely because of the sharp revaluation of the U.S. dollar that the U.S. trade deficit expanded rapidly. By 1984, the U.S. current account deficit reached a record high of 100 billion U.S. dollars. This was also Reaching the bottom line that the U.S. government can tolerate, they cannot persist with such a deficit no matter what. Solving the trade deficit has become their inevitable choice.

However, in view of the mishandling of the situation in 1977, the U.S. government itself does not dare to unilaterally announce the devaluation of its currency. It is difficult for the United States to withstand such an economic disaster.

Thinking of this, Jester thought about what he remembered about the Plaza Accord a few months later in his mind, and then he organized his words before he said: Grandpa Sandy, do you have Why don’t you think about this from a different perspective? What if we don’t unilaterally announce the devaluation of the US dollar, but join forces with other G5 countries to devalue the US dollar in an orderly manner?”

Ha ha!

Hearing Jester's words, Sandy Weir seemed to have heard the funniest joke in the world. He looked at Jester with a funny look and said, Jess, do you know What did you just say? Do you know what this means to other countries?

Hearing Sandy Weir's question, Jester nodded without thinking, and then said in a conclusive tone: Grandpa Sandy, of course I know that this is nothing more than allowing the United States to alleviate its economic problems. , but they have to harm their own interests. After all, the devaluation of the U.S. dollar will inevitably affect their exports, especially those countries that can only rely on exports.

Then what? Seeing that Jester knew the reason, Sandy Weir continued to ask. He didn't understand why Jester could say what he said before. How could these countries try to reverse the United States? economic problems to the detriment of their own interests.

After hesitating for a moment, Jester continued: Actually, Grandpa Sandy, in my opinion, even if these countries do what I said, they may not fundamentally reverse this trade deficit and this manufacturing The industrial deficit is caused by our high labor costs, and our economic problems cannot be solved by simple devaluation. The real cause of our economic problems, which is our crux, is actually our huge and incredible Regarding the fiscal deficit, I believe that there is definitely not just one person who has the same views as me.

...After hearing what Jester said, Sandy Weir also fell into deep thought and did not speak for a long time. He also heard some rumors about what Jester said before. Recently, James Baker has been frequently contacting several other people. The finance ministers of the G5 member states held confidential talks. The content of their previous discussions was extremely confidential. Logically speaking, it could not be known to the outside world. However, in the United States, there is nothing that these Wall Street giants cannot do. , so some news also leaked out.

Those who can know these gossips are all the top leaders of Wall Street giants, and Sandy Weir has indeed heard about it.

The news he heard was exactly the same as what Jester said before - what he found funny. The United States is indeed discussing with several G5 countries to jointly intervene in the foreign exchange market to depreciate the U.S. dollar in an orderly manner to save the United States. Economic plan.

But as Jester said before, with such a huge trade deficit now, such devaluation will not help at all, and the effect it can play is minimal. But if we don’t do this, we really can’t think of anything better. Is there any way to get the federal government to cut their budget? Haha, this kind of thing is 10,000% impossible to pass.

So, thinking of this, Sandy Weir looked at Jester in surprise. He really didn't expect Jester's vision to be so far-reaching. There were even some things that he didn't see through. Jester also Being able to say it with such certainty, he was more interested in Jester's next words. He spoke with some anticipation: Then what do you think this kind of depreciation of the U.S. dollar can do?

hehe.

Jester just chuckled, showing his white teeth. The smile was a little cold, but it passed quickly. He did not answer the question directly, but told Sandy Weir a story: Sandy Grandpa Di, I wonder if you have ever heard a story about what the owners of sheep will do when their wool grows long?

Hearing Jester's words, Sandy Weir's eyes lit up instantly, and he knew what Jester was talking about.

Just shearing sheep. r1152