Game of Thrones: Battle Royale Game

"Yada." Ian called out the door and called in the guard captain Yada, the water dancer on duty.

The next moment, Yada entered the tent.

"Send someone to notify several legion commanders to test the poison first after receiving the supplies from Yunkai. In addition," Ian paused, "Forget it, that's it." Then he waved his hand and let Yada leave.

He originally wanted to order the Legion to strengthen their vigilance against Yunkai, but after thinking about it he still did not issue this order.

Because according to the military orders he formulated, the army must maintain a high level of alert when in camp. Using Yunkai to test whether this military order has been strictly implemented will definitely be much better than letting the Dothraki test it in the future. .

Moreover, now that he has his own falcon flying in the sky to provide the scouts with the truth, if there is an emergency, he can handle it in advance.

After sending Yada away, Ian returned to Celia's side.

"continue."

"My first reaction at the time was that this was a Hongmen Banquet. They wanted to trick you into the city and murder you. Moreover, the person who planned this murder was most likely not General Shake-Ass, but the Grand Marshal of Yunkai himself." Celie Ya glanced at Ian and saw that he had no intention of speaking, so he continued,

"You should also have noticed what Grazdan and General Shake Butt said at that time, right? The gifts of the seven slave girls that Grazdan said were given in his own name, and the abyss that General Shake Butt said was The mansion in Kaicheng is a gift given to you by the 'Generalissimo'.

According to the information we have received before, the Grand Marshal of Yunkai, Yakhaz Zo Yazak, has always had a high level of ambition. It is a strange thing for him to give you a gift, and combined with the performance of the butt-shaking general, .”

"So your conclusion is," Ian interrupted Celia, "that the Grand Marshal of Yunkai has set up a Hongmen Banquet for us, hoping to bring me into the city and kill me?"

"This conclusion once made me feel ridiculous, but" Celia shook her head, "after you asked Grazdan two questions before he left, I began to suspect that I might have guessed it right."

"The banquet was held in the pyramid of Yazan, the richest man in Yunkai, and he and the Grand Marshal did not deal with each other." Ian nodded.

"Yes, if the Grand Marshal of Yunkai has planned some way to murder you and then blame the richest man Yazan, the Grand Marshal's enthusiasm and the general's performance just now make sense.

Also explained was Grazdan's behavior. When he found out that the Butt-Shaking General wanted to invite you into the city and keep you here just like him, he first showed a confused expression, and then his face began to turn ugly.

We can boldly guess that he also guessed the conspiracy of General Shake-the-Butt at that time, so he hurriedly wanted to return to the city to warn Yazan, the richest man in Yunkai. Otherwise, today's ordinary welcoming ceremony would have Grazdan, what reason does he have to go back and report to his master in a hurry? "

"It's a wonderful reasoning," Ian clapped his hands, then changed the subject and held out three fingers, "I really want to say that, but there are at least three problems with this reasoning."

"what is the problem?"

"First, when General Shake-the-Butt was examined by me, his reaction was not only panicked and abnormal, but also filled with fear."

"When a conspiracy like murder is discovered, it's normal to be afraid, right?" Celia didn't seem to think there was anything wrong with this.

"There was no murder conspiracy that was discovered at that time," Ian denied Celia's point of view. "There was just my suspicion of their purpose of inviting me to the city. This suspicion did not have any threat.

Because I refused to enter the city, the murder would not have happened, and naturally we would not be able to find any evidence. Unfounded suspicion without evidence cannot pose any threat to a powerful general, so the reaction of the butt-wagging general at that time was obviously excessive. "

"If you continue to extend this perspective, I can think of two possibilities." Ian continued, "The first is that the general's reaction at the time was all fake. He wanted to use this exaggerated reaction to show me To convey the message 'I have a problem'. Of course, if this is the case, I still don't know his purpose.

The second possibility is that he is really panicked and scared, but this emotion is not caused by me seeing through his murder plot, but "

"But?" Celia asked quickly when she saw Ian stop.

"I don't know," Ian said matter-of-factly, "There is no more information here to support further reasoning." Ian marked a small question mark where he stopped writing, "Generally when I encounter this situation Sometimes I will leave this place blank for the time being, and then continue the deduction after more information is collected.”

"Now," Ian took out the first piece of paper, "let's go back and start discussing the second question."

"When we were in Pentos," Celia suddenly interjected, "Did you also use this method to see through me?"

"The second question is," Ian did not answer Celia's question, "Grazdan's purpose of leaving in a hurry. You made too absolute a judgment without further clues."

Seeing that Ian was unwilling to answer, Celia was not stupid enough to ask. She said nothing more and just waited quietly for Ian to continue.

"Assuming that your theory that Grazdan suddenly guessed that General Shake-Butt and the others might have such a conspiracy and rushed back to find Yazan is true, do you think that Grazdan left in a hurry to warn Yazan about The conspiracy of the Generalissimo's faction But the biggest flaw in this theory is, why didn't he warn us before leaving?

Grazdan has never been on the same side as the Generalissimo. How could he give up such a good opportunity to use us to attack the Generalissimo? Even if he is not sure whether there is really such a murder conspiracy, it would be good to say it to drive a wedge between me and the Generalissimo.

But he left without saying anything, and as he left, he told me he would come see me later. So I thought of the second possibility - maybe Grazdan himself is not sure whether Yazan is also involved in the conspiracy of the Generalissimo's faction. "

"Yazan and the Generalissimo?"

"Yes, there are rumors that these two people are incompatible, but what is the specific truth? It is a very common method in politics to pretend to be opposed to achieve ulterior motives or to create some artificial balance. With us Grazdan obviously knows the true relationship between them better than."

"You mean, if Grazdan thought that Yazan and the Generalissimo might be working together? Then it makes sense that when he discovered the conspiracy, he was not sure whether Yazan was involved or not." Celia Nod.

"Yes, and the banquet is held in Yazan's pyramid. With the Generalissimo and Yazan obviously not dealing with it, it might not be easy for the Generalissimo's people to arrange an assassination in Yazan's pyramid. .”

"So Grazdan chose to return to Yunkai first and ask Yazan whether he was also involved in this plan."

"This is only the second possibility."

"Is there a third kind?"

"Yes, it may be that Grazdan was convinced that Yazan did not participate, but he still chose not to warn us. Because he wanted to use the trick and wait for the Generalissimo and the others to take action before thwarting their conspiracy.

This can completely anger me and make me purge the Generalissimo and his faction. Secondly, it can sell me a favor. However, this possibility is not high. Based on my understanding of Grazdan, he may have this brain, but he probably doesn’t. This courage. "

"Which possibility do you prefer?" Seeing Ian stop, Celia asked, "Do you think Yazan was involved?"

"Without clues and evidence, we cannot be biased towards any of the possibilities deduced," Ian said and suddenly laughed, "Furthermore, you said it as if until this point We all guessed the same thing. We were just playing through the possibilities."

"Of course," Celia washed her face with her hands, "It's just a deduction."

"At this point in the deduction, we can only come to one conclusion, that is, when Grazdan encounters differences, he will prefer his master to us. But this is also expected. After all, he has not really learned from me yet. Got benefits."

"So what if we continue to deduce it? Let's assume that Yazan is involved in this conspiracy.

"Then we can come to a new conclusion," Ian took over. "Yazan did not regard Grazdan as a true confidant, and did not even tell him such an important thing."

"This is valuable information."

"It's just a piece of information that may be valuable, but we may not be able to use it," Ian corrected, "Okay, let's go back to the previous branch point."

"That is." Celia flipped through the manuscript that Ian had just listed.

"The conclusion of murder itself," Ian took out a card from Celia's hand, "is also the third problem in your inference that I mentioned."

"Why? Their reaction has clearly shown that there is something wrong with Yunkai, doesn't it?"

"Of course there are problems in Yunkai, but murdering me at the banquet is just one of the possibilities. The smallest possibility." Ian looked at Celia, "Murder is an action without any room for maneuver. If the Grand Marshal really wants to What was his motive for doing this?"

"this"

"Deduction is a method of reasoning from the general to the specific," Ian reminded. "If you can't find the answer, then we go back to the most basic logic. If a person wants to do one thing, that is for what?"

"Something to be gained by doing it," Celia returned instinctively, then she corrected, "either to gain something, or to suffer some kind of loss by not doing it, forcing him to do it."

“So what if there’s a risk in doing this?”

"Then the benefits of doing it must be greater than the risks of doing it, or the risks of not doing it must be greater than the benefits of not doing it."

"Back to Yunkai, suppose I die, what does Yunkai gain?"

"If you die, the bond between the Alliance of Gith and the Alliance will be severed. That's right!" Celia suddenly realized, "They may think that as long as you die, Daenerys, a little girl, will not be able to continue to exist. With the courage of Slaver's Bay against the Dothraki, she will flee with her army. Then the threat of Horse King Drogo to Slaver's Bay will be lifted, and the unequal treaty they signed with Astapor will no longer need to be fulfilled."

"Sounds as I thought, but what about the risks?"

"This" Celia was stunned immediately and showed a ridiculous smile, "If you die in Yunkai City, then our army may turn Yunkai into a pile of rubble in a rage. Than Compared with the Centaur War, which seems to have little chance of winning, but at least there is hope, and most of the losses will be borne by Meereen, our threat to Yunkai is more direct and fatal.

If the person who planned this conspiracy was just a lieutenant general like the Butt-Shaking General, then the motive could be many things, such as money. After the matter was over, he could leave Yunkai and go to other cities to enjoy himself.

But according to our previous reasoning, the Grand Marshal is likely behind this conspiracy, and even Yazan, the richest man, may be involved. These two people can already be regarded as the masters of Yunkai."

"For them, the risks far outweigh the benefits." Ian helped Celia come to the conclusion, "That's why I said that the possibility of this conspiracy targeting my murder is very low."

"It's just very low? Can't we rule it out?"

"Unfortunately, no." Ian chuckled, looked at Celia, and stopped talking.

His gaze made Celia's scalp tingle.

Celia had forgotten how long it had been since she felt Ian's oppression. She remembered that the last time she was stared at by Ian like this was at the mountaintop temple in Pantos.

"The benefits and risks here are all things we already know," Ian clicked twice on the manuscript paper. "But is there a possibility that this risk has actually been resolved in advance?"

"Resolve the risk? How to resolve it?" Celia suddenly remembered the order Ian gave Yada just now, "You mean poisoning the food provided to our army? Did you already think of this step at that time?"

"No, my mind was still in a mess at that time. I was just taking precautions before it happened." Ian shook his head, "Also, I don't think they would rely on such unreliable methods as poisoning food. Way to deal with my army.”

"So they think they can hold Yunkai?"

"The defenders of Yunkai are nothing more than a ragtag group of people, and their walls are in decay." Ian denied again.

Finally, Celia's expression changed, as if she didn't understand what Ian was talking about until this moment.

"So what you want to say is that they knew that this army would not attack Yunkai after you died. To be more precise, they planned this in cooperation with the people who could take over your army after you died. It’s a plan, right?”