Hello, 1983

Mountain!

When Liu Qingshan is here, he still has some fame. He is considered a star student, so there are many people who know him.

Fortunately, college students in the United States generally do not disturb other people's lives, so Liu Qingshan is usually not harassed.

After walking to the front, Liu Qingshan first bowed to Professor Peter, then nodded to Soros and others, and finally came to Rogers.

Rogers also stood up with a smile and shook hands with Liu Qingshan: Welcome, Mountain, I know you are under a lot of pressure now, can you still hold it?

Liu Qingshan also shrugged his shoulders and looked at the three people on the opposite side. In addition to Soros, there was Warren Buffett, the later stock god, and Dalio, who designed the Pure Alpha fund. Anyone who changed it would definitely feel the pressure. .

However, Liu Qingshan still said calmly: Mr. Rogers, a great man in our country once said that all enemies are paper tigers.

Okay, your courage is commendable. Rogers took the lead and clapped his hands.

But the following students didn't buy it: What, if you look down on the stock market, isn't that going to ruin our jobs?

These college students here, after graduation, all want to go to Wall Street to work hard.

When Liu Qingshan sat down beside Rogers, Professor Peter began to host, and typed the topic of today's forum with a slideshow:

It was designed to look like a seesaw, with a money bag sitting on the side, and a cartoon image of a person sitting on the side.

The topic we are going to discuss here today is about the stock market. The square is represented by Mr. Soros and is optimistic about the development of the stock market.

The negative side is represented by Mr. Rogers, who is bearish on the stock market.

Today, the two of them are going to have a debate here. Professor Peter made a brief opening statement, and then raised his hand to signal to the front.

The students below also started to listen with great interest, and some even took out small notebooks to memorize key points.

They thought that maybe they could save their pocket money and buy a hand or two of stocks, maybe they could earn a Christmas present for their girlfriend.

And several reporters present today also felt that their trip was well worth it: this kind of controversial topic is the most suitable for news.

What's more, which of those sitting on the stage are not famous, of course, except for the little guy named Mountain.

Soros, Buffett, Dalio, Rogers, these predators, they usually want to interview them, but they don't have time to pay attention to you with hundreds of thousands of dollars per minute.

The first to speak was Dalio. He is the founder of Bridgewater Fund. He has always wanted to establish a trading decision-making system of his own, just like the unique secrets in martial arts novels. He is the representative of the academic technology flow.

Dalio calmly sorted out a few pages: I have a survey report here, in the form of a questionnaire.

On January 23 of this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 115 points and then rose 60 points. We can call it a flash sell.

But in the questionnaire I organized later, only 8% of the 1,000 investors were asked to choose how they felt about the market on that day, and to choose words such as 'fear', 'drop', and 'stock crash'.

Ninety percent of those who chose words such as 'profit', 'crazy', and 'increase positions' were invalid votes.

Dalio showed these sets of data on a slide, and then said: What does this show? It shows that investors are very optimistic about the stock market. They believe in the market and will never follow the trend and sell stocks.

He concluded by saying: Without a large-scale sell-off, the so-called big stock market crash, of course, cannot occur.

Immediately, there was warm applause. As the saying goes, without investigation, there is no right to speak. This Mr. Dalio, speaking with data, rather than the so-called prediction, is still very convincing.

Rogers, who was sitting opposite Dalio, looked at Liu Qingshan with a smile: Man, how are you going to refute him?

Since they are partners fighting side by side,

Of course he was a buddy. Of course Rogers would not despise Liu Qingshan because of his age.

Liu Qingshan shook his head: Time will prove everything.

Anyway, there is less than a week before the stock market crash.

Time is indeed the best answer, but we should still say something, otherwise, we won't be able to step down.

Rogers simply picked up Liu Qingshan's paper, turned a few pages, found a paragraph of text and read it:

This is a paper by Mr. Mountain, and I'll take a short excerpt.

From a psychological point of view, people generally have a herd mentality, when the stock market is rising, people will frantically put money in.

Similarly, when the stock market falls, panic spreads like the plague, and everyone just wants to sell.

This kind of investment psychology, we can call it the herd effect, where the top sheep go, the following sheep will follow.

So Mr. Dalio's questionnaire, although it is real, is not necessarily valid.

Rogers closed the paper gently and raised it in his hand, looking very satisfied.

The students in the audience also made low-pitched comments. The herd effect has not become popular yet, so everyone heard it and felt very novel.

Many people imagine a flock of sheep in their minds, marching aimlessly on the grassland, being led east by the alpha sheep for a while, and then led north by the alpha sheep for a while, the picture is really funny.

However, it is very vivid. Aren't those investors like a group of mindless sheep under the herd mentality?

And Soros Buffett and others sitting in front, aren't they the leaders?

Obviously, the three people on Soros' side were also aware of this problem. The three of them looked at each other and shrugged their shoulders.

Soros was still childish, and he let out a bleating sound. The atmosphere in the entire lecture hall was much more relaxed.

At this time, Buffett spoke to Rogers: Jim, Mr. Mountain's paper sounds very good, can you show it to me?

No, I can make a copy for you when the debate is over, but for now, it's my weapon, Rogers said half-jokingly.

He really valued this paper, it was a feeling that Yu Boya met Zhong Ziqi.

Buffett nodded: Well, I hope your weapon will not be detonated, otherwise...

He did not continue to give the answer, but those who studied economics had studied the great stock market crash in the United States in 1929, which triggered an economic crisis that lasted for more than ten years, and its power was comparable to a mushroom bomb.

Anyway, it was Buffett's turn to speak, and he continued: What I want to talk about is a change in the stock trading model. Everyone knows that traditional stock trading is a special someone who presses the button on the trading page of the exchange. Write down the stock quotes in order.

But after entering the 1980s, all of this was replaced by computers, which were more timely and faster, which undoubtedly made the stock market dynamic.

And with the popularity of personal computers, maybe in a few years, you can sit in front of your computer at home and buy and sell stocks...

Hearing that, Liu Qingshan was secretly convinced: A big bull is a big bull, and his predictions about the future are very accurate.

It’s just that the current Buffett probably hasn’t raised his realm to the realm of “I am fearful when others are greedy, and I am greedy when others are fearful”.

Otherwise, he should have felt fear now, instead of sitting here talking about it.

Buffett continues: According to the powerful computing power of the computer, all the risks of the stock market can be calculated in advance. For example, I designed automatic trading for the computer.

When the stock price falls to the risk zone I set, it will be sold automatically. In this way, where is there any risk...

When the stock god finished speaking his point of view, the students below naturally gave him applause with sincerity.

This time, Rogers simply picked up Liu Qingshan's paper and pretended to turn a few pages: Oh, this is a great arsenal, and you can always come up with the right weapon to fight back.

Please listen to the discussion in this paragraph, which also refers to the application of computers.

Oh, these professional data, in my opinion, are simply heavenly books, I can only directly say the conclusion, Mr. Mountain believes that the current computer speed is too slow, when there is too much data, it will be like a traffic jam on the highway. , causing a delay.

After Rogers finished reading, he looked at Liu Qingshan with a smile: In that case, I'm afraid I have to trouble Mr. Mountain to play the Last of the Mohicans again.

There was a burst of laughter from the audience, but many people were shaking their heads: they all know the speed of the computer, so how could there be a traffic jam?

Wall Street has been using computers for several years. People have only seen its convenience and speed, and there have been no traffic jams.

This Mr. Mountain is obviously an alarmist.

If it wasn't for Liu Qingshan sitting on the stage and never opening his mouth, he would be greeted with boos.

The students can maintain enough respect for those bosses, but they are not polite to Liu Qingshan, a rookie who has just entered the school.

Soros finally concluded his statement: Our economy is recovering, the stock market is rising, and all of this is so prosperous.

Everyone knows that someone nicknamed me the short-selling king of Wall Street. Even I am confident in the stock market, so why should you worry?

His words were so provocative that they drew a tidal wave of applause from below, and they lasted for a long time.

Obviously, the following students and the vast majority of shareholders also hold the same view.

When everyone's eyes converged on Rogers, and when he was waiting for his final statement, Rogers raised the paper in his hand again:

I will list several sets of figures mentioned in the paper below. In 1985 and 1986, the economic growth was 2.8% and 2.5% respectively.

While consumption is growing at an annual rate of 4 percent, residential fixed investment by residents is increasing by 10 percent annually.

Gentlemen, we are all in the business of the economy, and what that means is self-evident.

So I hope everyone can keep a clear head and not be blindly optimistic.

After speaking, he stood up and bowed.

The audience below, of course, also responded with polite applause, but it was much less enthusiastic than before.

After Rogers sat down, he complained again: Man, you are really not a competent teammate. After sitting here, you didn't say a word.

Liu Qingshan simply cooperated with him, still did not speak, but raised his finger and pointed to his own paper.

Only then did Rogers put his hand on his forehead: Oh, I almost forgot, the opinions I quoted are actually all yours. In this way, you are the real main force.

After speaking, he gave Professor Peter a thumbs up: Professor, you have cultivated a great student.

It's too early to say this. Professor Peter didn't see it that way.

He is also preparing to give the final speech, and then enter the free discussion session. I believe that the students below will have a lot to say and want to communicate with several predators on the stage.

But Rogers was not going to let him go: Professor, time will tell, facts speak louder than words.

No, Jim, I'm not going to make any assumptions until it happens. Of course, if Liu's prediction is correct, then I'll consider helping him finish his undergraduate studies early and follow me for a Ph.D.

Professor Peter is also a very practical person, and he began his final statement solemnly: The debate just now was very exciting and intense.

But none of us have the ability to predict the future, so the real answer is in the future.

The stock market and stocks are just a very small branch of the economic classification. You can study it, but I don't want anyone to be addicted to it.

Okay, now is free question time.

The lecture hall immediately became lively, and the students below raised their hands one after another.

Seeing this, Liu Qingshan nodded to several people on the stage, and then walked offstage, but was still surrounded by several reporters.

Different from those students, the reporters obviously paid more attention to Liu Qingshan, because that's how they broke the news.

There is no way, Liu Qingshan can only deal with the reporter for a while, talking about the car wheel.

A reporter did not give up: Mr. Mountain, do you want to use this maverick way to attract attention when you predict the stock market will plummet?

Liu Qingshan's expression also became serious: No, this is a warning. I want to emphasize to all investors, be vigilant and protect your wallet.

The reporter shrugged: Then, Mr. Mountain, can you tell me the exact time of the stock market crash?

Liu Qingshan blinked: Maybe next Monday.

After speaking, he separated the crowd and left the lecture hall.

As for the words he said, even if they were published in the newspapers, no one would believe them, and they might even be ridiculed by countless people.

The facts were similar to Liu Qingshan's expectations. The next day, several newspapers published reports on this high-end summit in the economic section.

It's just that everyone mentions the names of Rogers and Soros, and little pawns in the economic field like Liu Qingshan are not mentioned at all.

However, there was an entertainment-oriented tabloid that reported on Liu Qingshan and ridiculed him for choosing the wrong major.

In this regard, Liu Qingshan just laughed it off, and he calmly waited for the opening of the black storm.

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