Beiyang reactionaries

The current Japanese high-level is not crazy, or the "9.18 Incident" in history is a decision made by the front-line generals.It's just that China has made too many concessions, which has made the Japanese military more and more courageous.Young generals at the front kidnapped the entire Japanese cabinet and military.

A radical young officer who can do anything.

"Others said it too."

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"What do you think?"

"Prime Minister, I think Chief Yan's analysis is still reasonable."

Dai Kan spoke.

While talking, he looked at Yan Shichao, admiring him very much.Yan Shichao is an outsider in Duan Xun's camp.The powerful figures on Duan Xun's side are either Duan Xun's classmates or Duan Xun's students, and then they are the political forces attached to Duan Xun in the southwest.And Yan Shichao didn't step aside in any way, he was quite behind and took refuge in Duan Xun.It was after Duan Xun's troops entered Mongolia that they took refuge in Duan Xun's people, even later than the forces in the northwest and central provinces.At the beginning, it was to strengthen the relationship with the Soviet Union, so Yan Shichao was transferred to the Foreign Affairs Committee.In the field of diplomacy, Yan Shichao is also an outsider.

At present, among China's diplomatic fronts, there are the most people studying in Japan, and those who are more famous are those studying in Britain and the United States.Yan Shichao studied in Russia, which is quite different.

But Duan Xun attaches great importance to Yan Shichao.

Let Yan Shichao move towards the position of Minister of Foreign Affairs step by step.It is really good to see Yan Shichao's analysis of the situation in Japan today, which is different from those diplomatic professionals who specialize in studying law and foreign languages.

Compared with them, Yan Shichao is better.He has studied abroad, worked as a diplomat, done administrative work in the local area, and led soldiers to fight in wars.Not only wiped out bandits, but also fought with White Russian troops.

At 44 years old, there is still a lot of opportunity for improvement.

Dai Kan admired Duan Xun very much in his heart, and also envied Duan Xun very much.The Progressive Party established by Liang Qichao is very famous and has many members.It was the second largest political party in China after the Kuomintang.Many people here defected to Dai Kan and joined the People's Party.It is a very powerful force in Dai Kan's hands, which can compete with the "Department of Political Science" formed by Yang Yongtai's technocrats.

But in fact, those people are famous and influential, but in terms of handling specific matters, they are really not as good as these people who Duan Xun reused.Look at those people that Duan Xun reused, those important generals under Duan Xun's hands, no matter what is wrong with them, their ability to handle things is very good.But Dai Kan quickly put these thoughts behind him.

Because now is not the time to think about it.

Therefore, Dai Kan continued: "Unless the Japanese cabinet wants to complete the Sino-Japanese War again and take a large amount of compensation from us. Otherwise, they will not take the risk of conflict with us. But if they want to have another Sino-Japanese War , the Japanese cabinet will not vigorously abolish troops in the past two years. No matter how Japan looks down on our country, but if Japan wants to have another Sino-Japanese War, Japan must mobilize the whole country. It is impossible like this. Therefore, I believe that the Japanese cabinet will absolutely It is impossible to conflict with us."

"Prime Minister Dai is right."

Xu Yongchang echoed Dai Kan, saying: "Prime Minister, the Japanese cabinet is reducing military expenditures and abolishing the army, but it does not mean that they are blindly disarming. On the contrary, the current disarmament of the Japanese Army is planned and step-by-step, not blind .Their disarmament plan is to increase mules and horses, increase artillery, and increase heavy machine guns. They are training elite soldiers. If the Japanese army completes their disarmament plan, the number of mules and horses in the Japanese Army will greatly increase, and the number of heavy weapons will also greatly increase. , the combat effectiveness will be greatly improved. But the Japanese army has just begun to implement this plan, and it cannot be fully completed within three to five years. At this time, whether it is the Japanese cabinet or the high-level military, it should not take the initiative to engage with us. conflict."

Xu Yongchang is the chief of the general staff.

The questions raised are all from a military point of view.The current disarmament of the Japanese army has a lot to do with their financial difficulties.But it is also the reason why the Japanese military wants to strengthen the strength of the Japanese army.They are increasing the mobility of the army, increasing the firepower of the army, and increasing the combat effectiveness of the army.

It should be said that this disarmament has financial helplessness, but it is more of a military reform.

At present, the reform of the Japanese army has just begun, so the organization is relatively chaotic.The current strength of the Japanese army has declined compared to a few years ago. At this time, it is impossible for the Japanese cabinet and high-level Japanese military to conflict with China.

Even if they want to wash away the shame of two years ago, it shouldn't be at this time. When they complete the military reform, the strength of the Japanese army will increase a lot, and then it will be the time for a complete showdown with China.

"In other words, do you think this is just the private behavior of some officers on the Japanese front?"

"I think so."

Dai Kan nodded.

"I heard that young Japanese military officers are very arrogant. They have been dissatisfied with the 'Sino-Japanese Nanjing Treaty' signed two years ago, and want to get it back on the battlefield. I think they want to provoke trouble and kidnap their government And the military, go to war with us."

"Everyone thinks so?"

"Prime Minister, judging from the information we have received so far, it should be so."

Yang Yongtai also opened his mouth to express his views.

Wang Yongjiang saw that both Dai Kan and Yang Yongtai made such statements, and immediately said: "Prime Minister, judging from our import and export trade with Japan this year, although Japan's imports of our resources have increased a lot, they are all within the normal range. , there is nothing unusual. Therefore, I also support everyone's view that this conflict is not that the Japanese high-level wants to start a war with us."

Wang Yongjiang is in charge of the national economy.

Be very careful about import and export data.Because China's industrial development needs to import large quantities of machinery and equipment that China cannot produce.And it will cost a lot of money to buy their patents and technology.And China still needs to buy a lot of industrial products, including aviation oil needed by the Air Force, most of which also need to be imported.And China is sending foreign students who have studied for several years to return to China to support construction, and at the same time, it is constantly sending foreign students to study abroad.So the foreign exchange required every year is staggering.

The Chinese government has some gold and silver reserves in its hands, and the amount is quite large.But these gold and silver reserves can only be used at the most important time, and they will not be used casually at this stage.

So in order to get enough foreign exchange, China can only increase exports.In particular, increase the export of resources.As for data on resource exports, Wang Yongjiang can memorize it back and forth.

"There is no abnormality in the resource export?"

"Yes, it is very normal. Compared with last year, it has only increased by about [-]%, echoing the development of Japan's industry."

"it is good."

Yan Shichao analyzed it from the diplomatic level, because they have contacted many high-level Japanese officials and have a better understanding of their situation.Xu Yongchang analyzed from the military level and believed that the current Japanese army is not yet ready to fight.Wang Yongjiang gave Duan Xun an affirmative answer from an economic point of view.

Japan is a resource-poor country.

Once Japan really wants to have a conflict with China, or to go to war with China, it will need a lot of resources.Because once China and Japan go to war, China will inevitably interrupt its trade with Japan.Just like the war two years ago.

Once China stops exporting resources to Japan, it will be difficult for Japan to find an alternative country in a short time.Therefore, if Japan is preparing for war, it will definitely need to hoard resources in large quantities.At that time, Japan will need to import a large amount of resources from China in a short period of time to prepare for the war.But since there is no abnormal situation in the resource trade between China and Japan, it shows that Japan is not preparing for war.

"Since it's not the idea of ​​the Japanese high-level, then it's easy to handle."

Duan Xun does not want to have a large-scale conflict with Japan at this stage, or a war between countries.Because time is on China's side, Japan's current economic situation, the longer the time, the better for China.

Because China is a big country, as long as it has a little industrial foundation, its overall strength can grow by leaps and bounds.At that time, delaying will also drag Japan to death.

"Since everyone judges that this is not the Japanese high-level going to war with us, then things will be much easier. Fight hard to completely destroy the arrogance of these arrogant young Japanese officers. Originally, the riots on the Korean peninsula, we can only be Secret support, it is not good to come forward directly. Now that the Japanese army is provoking, then we just use this excuse to directly support the Korean Independence Army. Before Japan reacts, it completely paralyzes Japan’s situation on the Korean Peninsula and completely turns the Korean Peninsula into a Great battlefield."

Duan Xun didn't want to fight directly with Japan.

But Duan Xun is not afraid of Japan.Duan Xun was not afraid of Japan two years ago, and Duan Xun is even less afraid of Japan two years later.Many plans formulated by the cabinet in the past two years have not been completed on time, and there are many problems in the implementation process.

But in the past two years, China's political situation has been stable, and construction has been carried out in an orderly manner.Duan Xun's strength, it should be said that the strength of the Chinese government has improved to a higher level.China is like this.As a big country, as long as it develops steadily and the authority of the central government is guaranteed, its overall strength will also rise steadily.

Duan Xun is now able to mobilize more than 200 million army troops in a short period of time if needed.Of course, the war was urgent, and Duan Xun was able to mobilize 300 million troops.

This is no joke.

Duan Xun has attached great importance to the training of recruits since he suppressed bandits in western Henan.With the stability of the national political situation, it attaches great importance to the training of reserve forces.Therefore, there are many reservists who have received basic military training.

Moreover, the relationship between China and Japan is not good, so Duan Xun does not need to play strategic deception like he did two years ago.It is completely blatant to deploy troops and deploy arms in the Northeast and Shandong regions.

financial problem?

China has a very serious fiscal deficit, and Japan's fiscal deficit is even more serious.

Duan Xun is really not afraid of head-to-head encounters.

If this group of young Japanese military officers is not taught a lesson, they will push forward.This time they must be taught a lesson.

"My idea is this. We used the Japanese army's invasion of our land as an excuse to dispatch air forces in the Northeast and Shandong regions to carry out a major bombing of the Japanese army's military bases on the Korean Peninsula. It completely disrupted Japan's military deployment on the Korean Peninsula. Let the Korean peninsula continue to be chaotic."

The current chaos on the Korean peninsula is far from the result Duan Xun wanted.The Korean peninsula has a population of 2000 million. If the Korean Independence Army is strong, it will be easy to pull 30 troops, or even [-] to [-] troops on the Korean peninsula.