Manhattan Reborn 1978

new York.

Sunny afternoon~

Manhattan, at the intersection of Fifth Avenue and East 60th Street.

Metropolitan Club, fifth floor.

Judith K. Morgan (Julie), the old "Mediterranean" man, sat near the window and watched David Boy's "rhetoric" on the TV for a while. .

"Almost everyone knows that the oldest and simplest investment principle is to buy low and sell high~"

“It seems so obvious, who wouldn’t want to do that?”

“But what is the fundamental starting point and true meaning of this principle?”

"I guess many investors may not understand it."

"Because if you just take it literally, it's obviously buy low and sell high."

"How to judge the level of asset prices? When is the most appropriate time to buy? At what price is the most appropriate time to buy?"

“Is there an objective standard that we can refer to to define high and low asset prices?”

“Graham, the master of value investing, believes that investors must understand two things!”

“How to estimate the value of investments and how to view market price movements.”

"So, to judge the value of an asset, we must make a comprehensive judgment from two aspects: its intrinsic value and extrinsic value."

"For example, after the oil crisis broke out a few years ago, the Nifty 50 stocks, which were often jokingly called by people in the stock market, have recently fallen to a price that is almost impossible to fall."

“If I were a value investor hoping to buy the lowest-priced and most cost-effective stocks on the market, then I would definitely look for a suitable opportunity before the end of the year to buy a large number of oversold stocks. Hold and wait for the rebound..."

. . .

When Julie saw this, she tilted her head to Elder and Pine beside her and asked, "What do you think?"

"..." Elder and Pine looked at each other, neither of them rushing to speak.

Julie stood up and walked to the TV, pressed the pause button, turned to the two of them and said.

"What David said is very interesting and clearly explains the essence of reverse thinking!"

"Reverse Thinking!"

"Hehe~"

Julie smiled and shook her head: "It is indeed an interesting and accurate word."

"At the Fed meeting a few days ago, someone proposed to relax strict controls on borrowing and loan interest rates!"

"Some people also say that if the Federal Reserve loosens its control over interest rates, the currently circulating government bonds will experience an unprecedented plunge, causing a significant reduction in the liquidity of the bond market and causing funds in the domestic financial market to have to flow out of the government bond market. , into banks or commodities markets.”

Julie looked at Pine, who was looking thoughtful, and Elder, whose eyes were twinkling. She smiled, patted the TV behind her, and continued.

"This kid deliberately chose the time after the Fed announced it would continue to raise interest rates and the OPEC meeting ended to talk about investment and the economic cycle."

"Tell me, what is he trying to express in a subtle way?"

"..." Elder said after thinking for a moment.

"He reorganized what he had said to us before, mixed it with some confirmed predictions, and summarized his judgment on future trends."

"I admit that he did accurately predict the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike policy and the cautious attitude of OPEC members towards rising oil prices."

"Can.."

"Prudent?" Julie shook her head with a playful expression, interrupted him directly, and looked at Pine.

After Pine pondered for a few seconds, he looked at Julie and said: Anything, if its market performance continues to be good and can generate extraordinary profit returns, will attract a continuous inflow of funds until the market becomes overcrowded or the price is hyped. If it is too high, it will enter the mean regression stage. . ""

"Correspondingly, if the market performance of anything continues to be poor, its price will become cheaper and cheaper, its yield will become lower and lower, and investors will slowly lose interest."

“What David said is to know how to judge the value of assets and look for opportunities to buy low and sell high~”

"In fact, what Graham often said is to find stocks in the market that are too cheap to invest in, and then sell them when they attract other people's attention again."

Pine glanced at Elder from the corner of his eye, paused briefly, and continued.

"If the Federal Reserve decides to relax controls on domestic borrowing and lending rates, the issued Treasury bonds will enter a period of decline and suffer widespread selling due to their low fixed returns."

“The newly issued government bonds, due to their higher coupon rates and the Federal Reserve’s continued attitude of raising interest rates, will definitely usher in an influx of speculators who will actively purchase them~”

"This creates a national bond market that is unified as a whole but increasingly differentiated in terms of market attention."

"If I were an investor, I would sell old treasury bonds in large quantities and buy new treasury bonds in large quantities after the Fed officially announced the relaxation of interest rate regulation, and engage in speculative arbitrage until the next issuance of new treasury bonds or the Fed announces monetary policy. . . ”

"This happens to be a relatively short government bond investment cycle, and it is also the easiest opportunity for us to seize."

"Yeah..." Julie nodded with satisfaction.

He looked at Elder, returned to his seat with a smile, and asked: "You can also analyze the investment opportunities that can be seen by everyone through the advanced intelligence I provide."

"But that kid can obviously see further than you, much more~"

“Regardless of whether we can seize opportunities in every rising cycle, the economic cycle is of great research value!”

"You should also separate your thoughts when making certain major decisions, and try to re-evaluate the gains and losses from a more objective perspective."

Julie looked at the two people who nodded silently, smiled and joked: "I like what that guy said very much."

"The brain is a good thing~"

"When it's okay, you should exercise it more!"

"...Okay!" Elder smiled with a smile on his face.

There was no smile on Pine's expression, and he brought up another topic and asked: "The insurance company in which David has a stake will soon launch a comprehensive universal insurance product."

"I have communicated with other shareholders and management, and everyone has a lot of controversy over what to invest in specifically."

Julie picked up the teacup next to her, took a sip, and asked, "What do you think?"

"I think.."

Pine glanced at Elder and said directly: "When David took out the universal insurance product, he also specifically mentioned that he would use the cash dividend method and distribute 60% of the income to customers who invest in insurance."

"So I think that since he dared to propose this method of distributing income, he must have already had a series of relatively mature investment plans."

"60%!"

Julie repeated it in a low voice, and suddenly laughed: "That naughty little bastard, he claims that he never lies every day..."

"When he proposed to distribute 60% of the income to customers, he deliberately left a way out for himself in his words - the surplus income after deducting all expenses...!"

"Cost?"

"Hehe~"

“How to calculate the final surplus from investment profits?”

"Have you all forgotten that Vanderbilt, John Rockefeller Sr., and Carnegie didn't go to college or even get a good education?"

"Academic qualifications can only represent a person's mastery of knowledge, but cannot reflect his full ability!"

"If you can't apply the knowledge you learn in school to a suitable place, it's better not to learn it..."

Julie looked at the smiling Pine, crossed her legs, and sighed.

"Okay~"

"It won't be my turn to tell you this nonsense again."

"Do you have anything else?"

"...Yes!" Pine glanced at Elder, who was silent, and raised his hand to signal.

"Governor Lynch Colson invited Giles and me to a cocktail party he held last weekend."

"At the reception, we met Astaire K. Wood, and his running mate, Senator George Pushk."

"Oh?" Julie nodded slightly in surprise and asked after thinking for a moment.

"What did they say?"

Pine spread his hands and shrugged: "Mr. Wood, he only talked to us about some rumors about General Electric Company."

"Senator Pushk, asked us about David and his company."

"Because his little daughter Ada recently went to Professor Bartley to study with him..."

"Ada? Professor Bartlet?"

Julie recalled the information about Ada Pushk, nodded slowly and said: "That poor little girl can now walk out of the house... Can she meet someone?"

"It should be~" Pine replied with a smile.

"She also went to David's home and stayed with his family for a few days."

"Uh..." Julie suddenly felt that if this happened to other people, he might be surprised.

But when it happened to that bastard boy, it felt unsurprising~

this. .That’s weird!

Pine seemed to be able to guess what he was thinking at the moment, and smiled and said: "Mr. Wood, as the most popular presidential candidate, can make Governor Lynch Colson take the initiative to invite us to a cocktail party, do you think he is? .”

"It should be." Julie agreed.

"Wood has been in New York in recent days and has met many people who are dissatisfied with President White, and they have all expressed their support for Wood."

"What about you?" Pine asked, wanting to know Julie's true thoughts.

"I.."

"Hehe~"

Julie deliberately let it slip, shook her head, changed the subject and said, "I heard that Professor Bartley has agreed to Paul Samuelson's invitation and will come back to participate in an economic forum?"

"Has he recovered?"

"Uh... I don't know."

"It should be no problem." Pine replied somewhat uncertainly.

"If his physical condition does not allow it, Professor Bartley certainly will not..."

"Not necessarily~"

Julie thought she knew Professor Bartley's character very well. She pondered for a moment and said, "You should pay more attention to his physical condition and don't let him delay his recovery due to work."

"Ok!"

"Okay~ Are you okay?"

"No more." Pine shut his mouth "obediently", stood up and left directly.

Elder, who had been silent just now, looked at Julie with a smile on her lips and said.

"Another presidential candidate, Phil J. Crane, has found us."

"What did he say?" Julie asked without surprise.

"He said he would be willing to help us if we supported him in winning the election."

"Oh?" Julie thought about the conditions proposed by Crane with great interest and smiled.

"You promised him?"

"No!" Elder shook his head.

"Panaris didn't like him and rejected him directly."

"Haha~" Julie glanced at her watch with a smile, chatted a few words casually, and watched Elder leave.

After about half an hour.

Sirrod P. Morgan (Old Morgan) sat next to Julie with a tired look, took a sip of steaming black tea, and slowly relaxed.

Julie did not ask, but first said: "What are Panaris and Elder doing? Have you paid attention to them recently?"

"No." Old Morgan drank tea and shook his head.

"What happened to them?"

"It's nothing."

"I just thought it would be nice if Cheryl was a boy."

"..." Old Morgan certainly hopes that his eldest daughter can "transform" into a boy and shoulder the burden of the family on his shoulders.

However~

It is impossible for everything in this world to go as planned. The two sons were not born with the talent to be the heirs of the family, but the two daughters inherited the best qualities of their parents.

Be competitive, tolerant, confident, strong, courageous, and know how to keep learning and self-reflection.

Be calm and don't be rash when things happen, and be decisive and don't procrastinate in doing things.

If Panaris and Giles had these qualities, old Morgan wouldn't have to drag his ailing body around. .

Julie looked at old Morgan who fell into silence, realized that she couldn't help saying the "wrong" thing again, and asked with a smile.

"Professor Bartlet is coming back, did you know?"

"Um.."

"Paul Samuelson, what was the main discussion at the economic forum that he was invited to come back to participate in?"

Old Morgan pondered for a moment, adjusted his mentality, and explained: "Professor Milton Friedman, who adheres to the monetarist theory, left the University of Chicago the year before last and joined the Hoover Institution of Stanford University."

"He was considered a close friend by presidential candidate Astaire K. Wood."

"This competitive tire competition was also hosted by Friedman..."

"Because he wants to draw more attention to the economic and financial fields before Wood starts a nationwide campaign speech tour, and pave the way for Wood's campaign."

"But~"

Old Morgan suddenly changed the subject, looked at Julie and said with a smile: "He is very concerned about the proposal to relax interest rate controls put forward at the internal meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank of America."

"He specifically chose to hold the economic forum in New York this time, and also wanted to invite Paul Volcker, the current executive president of the New York Fed, to attend as a special guest."

Julie tilted her head in surprise and thought for a moment: "Volcker, have you always insisted on giving up controlling interest rates to curb inflation?"

"Correct!"

Old Morgan slowly narrowed his eyes: "He has expressed many times that only by controlling the money supply and other means can we effectively curb inflation and alleviate the crisis."

"However, in the past few years, these ideas of his have not been supported by experts in the economic field. Instead, they believe that he is trying to plunge the already precarious economic situation into an even more difficult predicament."

"what?"

“If we relax interest rate controls, will we fall into a bottomless abyss?”

"Where are the brains of those people?"

"shxx!" Julie complained unceremoniously.

Old Morgan completely relaxed, crossed his legs and smiled: "It has been more than 40 years since President Roosevelt took office before World War II and implemented the New Deal. The government required the Federal Reserve to strictly control borrowing and loan interest rates."

“This kind of policy inertia left over from history is difficult to change immediately.”

"so.."

Julie also crossed her legs, took out a cigar from the box on the small table next to her, put it in front of her nose, and continued with a smile.

"So we should wait and see and help them once in a while, right?"

"Hahaha~" Old Morgan laughed and nodded.

----

night~

Manhattan, at the intersection of Eighth Avenue and 42nd Street.

660 Eighth Avenue, third floor of Osevia Art Store.

Zina put the suitcase in her hand, pulled Elena Mesa, who had just returned from Texas, and asked with a smile.

"Why are you in such a hurry to come back?"

"Is he willing?"

"Hahaha~" Elena, who had a rosy complexion, laughed and hugged Xina, whispering in her ear for a few minutes before asking slightly proudly.

"How about it!"

"Uh..." Zina was surprised and speechless and dodged to the side, tilted her head and looked at Elena, with struggle and entanglement flashing in her eyes, and said with a wry smile.

"This is too..."

Elena waved to her, her eyes flashed with "temptation", and she whispered.

"I've already booked the flight tickets for you."

"You only need to spend more than three hours of travel time, and you can have a night that both of you will never forget!"

"..." Zina lowered her head and remained silent, obviously not having overcome the last psychological barrier.

Elena smiled like a "succubus" and said with a "bewitching" tone in her voice.

"David is much younger than us!"

"But even if he is not known to many people yet, he is already surrounded by us."

"When he becomes more and more successful in his career in the future, how will we position ourselves?"

"Have you really never considered this issue?"

"..." Zina looked down at her hands, clenched her fists little by little, and said nothing.

Elena knew that she was "tempted", so she stood up, took out two packages from her suitcase, placed them in front of Zina, and smiled.

"I've already prepared everything for you."

"Now, have you decided?"

"..." Zina stared at the package and wanted to reach out to pick it up but then put it back instantly.

Seeing that she still couldn't make up her mind, Elena simply took out a small notebook from the suitcase and threw it into her arms, turned around and walked towards the stairs, saying.

"There's only so much I can help you with..."

"I hope you can figure it out soon."

"If you miss it, you will regret it!"

"..." Zina held the small book in both hands and watched Elena go downstairs. She tried her best to calm down the excitement and anxiety in her heart and let out a long breath.

Missed it?

Do not!

Absolutely, can’t miss it again!