Reborn Entrepreneurial Giant.

Chapter 221 New Year’s Eve Speech

Qu Li originally only wanted to give a speech to the employees of Jumei and Honor, but he didn't expect that his small gesture would cause a big reaction. A certain department of Panshi arranged a team to record the whole process. It is said that he wanted to record it, and Youku Video was preparing to do a live broadcast. Well-known media outlets sent people over one after another.

There are many people who want to attend Qu Li's New Year's Eve speech, such as several friends in the film and television industry, Dai Zhikang, who met at the event, Dangdang and his wife, well-known economists, venture capital investors such as Sequoia, IDG, and Dinghui, as well as Hong Kong Yi Dapao and other seniors, including Rebus who has not been seen for a long time.

We can't blame them. It is generally believed that Qu Li is an arrogant person who is difficult to deal with, but he has repeatedly created miracles. Even if Jumei's stock price continues to fall, no one will underestimate him. Although there are rumors outside that he was taught by Lao Jianghu, after all, Just rumors.

Qu Li's unique New Year's Eve speech was titled "Friends of Time". It is said that all companies that were touted by this program were unlucky. Later, he stopped watching Fatty Luo. Although this man's persistence is very admirable, his experience It just doesn't work with eyesight.

In addition to the main speaker Qu Li, those who participated in the speech also included Lu Qi, who is about to take over as CEO of Jumei, Wang Jian, the head of Juyun Technology, Tan Lijun, head of Jumei’s supply chain (including logistics), Li Yinan, CTO of Honor, and Wang Chuanfu of BYD .

Although Qu Li doesn't like BYD's diversified development path that is not doing its job properly, Brother Chuanfu's persistence and hard work are still quite admirable.

"Friends of Time" started on time at 2008:12 on December 31, 8. The lecture was held at the Motorola Building in Beijin, now renamed the Glory Building.

At the beginning, of course, I need to introduce the origin of the New Year's Eve speech and why it is called "Friends of Time." Of course Qu Li would not say that he was trying to show off. There must be a false introduction, so I won't explain it one by one.

"There is a point in the book "The Fool Who Walks Randomly": The so-called successful people may be created by random events. Success is probably due to luck. Never overestimate your own abilities and wisdom."

"There is a short story in the book: Give the computer and let the monkey write. As long as there are enough monkeys and the time is long enough, one monkey will be able to write "Homer's Epic". Of course, it can also write "The Romance of the Three Kingdoms"..."

"I agree with the point of view in this book. Since success is accidental, as long as the time is long enough, most people can succeed. So friends who want to be successful, choose to be a friend of time and give yourself more time. Lots of patience and focus.”

Next, Qu Li reviewed some of the major events that occurred in 2008, from domestic to foreign countries, from society to the economy. Unfortunately, he could not say anything. The beast of harmony appeared. I don’t know which word was taboo, so I deleted four or five hundred words.

"I thought of an explanation: "Asymmetric Risk". Two concepts are introduced here, symmetry and risk. Symmetry means that you bear the consequences of your actions yourself. This is symmetrical. Risk is the uncertainty of purpose and result... …”

"Symmetrical surnames are a very simple principle. I even think it is one of the basic principles of the establishment of human society, including the establishment of many laws, all to establish symmetrical surnames in interactions between people. For example, as everyone knows After Liu Bang, the great ancestor of the Han Dynasty, entered Guanzhong, he made a three-part agreement with the people of Qin: Those who kill will die, and those who hurt or steal will be punished."

"Modern society is becoming more and more complex, but the basic principles will not change, and symmetrical surnames are also needed..."

"The emergence of e-commerce has broken information asymmetry to a certain extent and made transactions symmetrical. Therefore, e-commerce will inevitably achieve huge development in China. If combined with national policies, domestic Internet users are expected to increase to 5 million in five years. Total e-commerce retail sales across all platforms are expected to exceed 5 trillion. This is a huge opportunity..."

"Going back to the topic we just talked about, since there is symmetry, there are naturally asymmetric risks. For example, when the subprime mortgage crisis broke out this year, those Wall Street elites were able to get bonuses and dividends every year, but the financial crisis only broke out every seven or eight years. , but the damage they cause has to be borne by the entire society.

"Some groups have gained benefits but do not have to bear the corresponding risks. Instead, they have passed on the risks through various means. This is asymmetric risk."

Qu Li had no speaking experience, so he learned some lessons from someone temporarily, but he still had some bumps and bruises, but he had a lot of useful information. The author of "Asymmetric Risk" is Nicholas Taleb. He has written some very powerful books. Guo also has a huge influence, such as "The Fool Who Walks Randomly", "Black Swan", "The World of Black Swan", "The Wisdom of Random Survival", "Antifragility", and this book "Asymmetric Risk".

Many people think that economists are useless. For example, Ma Yun said that these people are pure nonsense. However, after reading Nicholas Taleb’s book, it should be clear that the “ignorance of academic skills” of Ma Yun and other big bosses may be another reason. kind of ignorance.

It is very difficult for ordinary people to understand the real world, so we need to learn. The various concepts proposed by these outstanding talents are tools for us to understand the world.For example, "entropy" in physics. If you know "entropy increase", you will know that disorder in the universe is eternal. Order is the pursuit of human society, and you can also understand "transaction costs" and so on.

"How does asymmetric risk arise? I think it may be caused by social differentiation and division of labor. This is the best way to make the world prosperous and rich, and it is also the basis for the operation of a market economy..."

"Is there any way to solve the "asymmetric risk"? Of course there is: that is to restore the symmetry of the entire human society through institutional design as much as possible."

"Is there any specific way? My answer is still: risk sharing and time."

“Risk sharing can deal with real-world uncertainty, but what does that have to do with time?”

"The entire 'risk sharing' system will evolve itself by eliminating losers who have made mistakes. This is the power of screening in the evolutionary process."

"So how should ordinary people grow in this uncertain world and how should they take advantage of asymmetric risks? My plan is: painful learning. Find the areas in which you are good at and bring value to others.

In addition, do not believe or follow the advice given to you by those who make a living by consulting, unless they will accept punishment for the wrong advice they provide. To put it bluntly: the vast majority of economists, securities analysts, and success gurus do not exist. The necessity..."

He originally wanted to predict that housing prices would rise in the next few years, and suggested that people who watched his speech buy fang. However, after being hit several times by the mythical river crab beast, he gave in and began to talk nonsense to make up the word count:

"Let the person who sets the rules of the game bear the risk, and let both parties involved in the game share the risk. This is a good way to solve many economic and social problems..."