Is it okay to not do anything after rebirth?

The U.S. dollar seems to be so strong now because of the sharp increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in [-].

They had no choice but to raise interest rates to curb domestic inflation.

I remember that in [-], a man named Michael Blumeuthal, the Secretary of the Treasury in the Carter administration of the United States, imposed restrictions on the foreign exchange market on the grounds that the trade surplus between his country and the former Federal Republic of Germany was too large. verbal intervention.

He hopes that through the depreciation of the dollar, this measure will stimulate U.S. export trade and reduce the U.S. trade deficit with other countries.

However, he did not expect that his speech would immediately lead to investors frantically selling the U.S. dollar, causing the U.S. dollar to begin to depreciate sharply against the currencies of major industrial countries.

Taking the Italian dollar as an example, you must know that at the beginning of [-], the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Italian dollar was that one U.S. dollar could be exchanged for [-] Italian dollars.

After his verbal intervention, in the autumn of [-], when the U.S. dollar was at its lowest against the Italian dollar, it fell to [-]:[-], a drop of as much as [-]%.

This resulted in US President Carter having to launch a "dollar rescue package" in the autumn of [-], aiming to support the value of the dollar.

As luck would have it, between [-] and [-], the world's second oil crisis broke out.

Vicious circle!

This time the oil crisis has caused a sharp rise in energy prices in the United States, and the consumer price index in the United States has also risen steadily.

As a result, severe inflation has occurred in the United States, with the inflation rate even exceeding double digits.

To give you an example, if you deposited money in the bank at the beginning of [-], by the end of the year you would find that the actual rate of return for the year was actually negative [-]%. Two point four.

In the summer of [-], Paul Volcker was recommended and became chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of the United States.

In order to control the severe inflation in the United States, he raised the official interest rate of the Federal Reserve three times in a row and implemented a tightening monetary policy in the following years.

As a result of this policy, the official interest rate and market interest rate in the United States reached double digits. The short-term real interest rate (the real rate of return after deducting inflation) averaged close to zero from [-] to [-]. The level suddenly rose to [-]% to [-]% between [-] and [-].

Such high interest rates have indeed attracted a large amount of overseas funds to flow back into the United States, which in turn has led to a surge in the value of the U.S. dollar.

In the five years from the end of [-] to the end of [-], the US dollar exchange rate also rose by nearly [-]%.

The exchange rates of the U.S. dollar against the local currencies of the world's major industrial countries have exceeded the levels reached before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system.

At this time, the disadvantages of the sharp appreciation of the U.S. dollar were once again extreme, leading to the rapid expansion of the trade deficit between the United States and other countries and regions.

Finally, in [-], the U.S. current account deficit reached a record high of $[-] billion.

This is amazing. At this time, Italy has replaced the United States and become the world's largest creditor country.

At the same time, products made in Italy have also flooded the world, and the whole world is trembling at the crazy expansion of Italian capital.

The so-called economists in the United States believe that in order to save the increasingly depressed U.S. manufacturing industry, the only way forward is for the U.S. government to intervene in the foreign exchange market and depreciate the dollar.

I concluded that they still have to use unconventional means.

The most direct and effective method is to let the currencies of Italy and the Federal Republic of Germany appreciate relative to the US dollar.

Taking these factors together, my prediction is that Italy’s country will be the first to be targeted.

Therefore, the only thing we have to do now is to invest the most money, buy the currency, and then wait for the appreciation. "

As soon as he finished speaking, the three audience members present were stunned.

We are all senior financial practitioners, and we all need to have some understanding of the international economic situation in the past few years.

Including the fiscal deficit announced by the U.S. government, everyone naturally knows it.

However, no one has seriously thought about the inner connection between these few things, or even if they think about it, no one can understand the mystery behind it.

Now listening to what Na Zhiming said, there was a feeling of enlightenment. Everyone thought about it in their hearts, and it really seemed like that.

But thinking about it again, even though several of them have listened to Na Zhiming's explanation, no one dares to try this operation like the task assigned by Na Zhiming.

Anyone who can make such a decision cannot be an ordinary person.

Li Sitong calmed down his thoughts and asked cautiously:

"Chairman, according to your prediction, the Japanese yuan will appreciate and the US dollar will depreciate. Can we borrow from all banks, as long as we maintain the contract that the loans and repayments are settled in US dollars?

Then buy the Japanese yen, hold it until it rises to a price we recognize, and then sell it. "

Na Zhiming clapped his hands and said with a smile:

"Yes, what Mr. Li said is basically correct. The next main work of the financial departments of our two groups will be based on this idea."

Yang Jingguo also interjected:

"Chairman, I absolutely accept your prediction of this international exchange rate change. However, this foreign exchange transaction requires the most precise operation, and it is almost impossible, so I need you to give an accurate time point for the operation.

That is, when is the time for us to start trading? When do you have to leave? "

Na Zhiming looked at the three people in front of him and felt a little happy in his heart.

These three people all have professional backgrounds. Not only did they major in finance during their studies, but they all also worked on Wall Street after graduation.

Although judging from their past work experience, their abilities may be worse than those of practitioners from internationally renowned investment banks.

But isn't this exactly what I want? Isn't it a talent that is no worse than anyone else in terms of operation and is just a talent with insufficient foresight?

Such talents, because they feel they are not competent enough, will be more cautious in their behavior.

In the future, if they have the information and directional guidance provided by themselves, then why can't they achieve brilliant achievements!

Speaking of myself, although I can’t say that I don’t understand foreign exchange trading at all, the little I know is limited.