Rebirth of the Capital Legend
Chapter 297 The referendum results are announced one after another!
"Based on the current preliminary vote count, the probability of remaining in the EU should still be high, right?"
At 2:20 pm Beijing time, in Hong Kong, in the main hedge fund trading room of "Huifeng Huanyu No. 1", Godfrey asked Ernest, the head of the market research department.
Ernest responded: "Currently, more than 75% of the forecasts from major global institutions still predict that the referendum result is biased towards remaining in the EU. At present, everyone believes that the Sunderland voting area, which has not yet released the preliminary market vote count, has greater uncertainty."
"After the official voting channel for the referendum is opened, it will probably take until tomorrow morning for the official results to be announced, right?" Godfrey paused and asked, "I'm afraid there will still be quite a difference between the preliminary vote count results in the market and the official voting results after the official voting channel is opened!"
Ernest nodded slightly and said, "The final result will definitely not be settled until tomorrow morning, but the results of the key voting districts will not be known until tomorrow morning. In fact, as long as we know the voting results of the key districts, the final result can basically be determined."
"Since the official voting results will not be confirmed until tomorrow morning," Godfrey said, "it seems that... the outcome of this battle between bulls and bears will have to wait until tomorrow! In addition to the information on the referendum, is there any latest news from the Bank of England?"
Hearing what Godfrey said, Jeremy, the head of the Intelligence Department, hurriedly replied: "The unanimous opinion of the Bank of England's internal committee is still to maintain the stability of the pound exchange rate market, and it is also continuing to release US dollar foreign exchange reserves into the market. It's just that the intensity of market intervention is the same as before, without much increase. I guess the Bank of England is also waiting for the official referendum results to be finalized. It is highly likely that before the official referendum results come out, the Bank of England will not intervene in the market too aggressively. After all, if it intervenes in the market aggressively at this time, if the subsequent referendum results are seriously below expectations, then the current strategy and the huge amount of funds invested will have a completely ineffective impact on the pound exchange rate."
"Alas, Brian is indeed lacking in courage." Godfrey sighed helplessly.
"The market's real-time trading volume and the speed of new positions opened by both long and short sides have begun to decline." During the discussion between the three people, the trading team leader Gerald, who had been watching the trend of the British pound exchange rate, hurriedly reported, "It seems that the desire of capital institutions around the world to open new positions is decreasing."
"That's not surprising," Ernest responded. "With the uncertainty of the referendum result looming, and the lack of new important news, it's completely normal for funds to have less desire to open new positions. At this time... neither long nor short is appropriate, and the uncertainties they face are both huge."
"It seems... all we have to do now is wait." Godfrey squinted his eyes, exhaled, and said.
"We are not the only ones waiting." Ernest said, "At this moment, all the capital from all over the world and the countless long and short major institutions in the market are waiting."
"I hope that as we wait, there will be good news." Godfrey said expectantly.
At present, the long positions in the British pound exchange rate held by their fund products have reached nearly 46 lots, which has almost reached the maximum position limit.
With such a large position, the entire fund has lost its initiative.
At this time, facing the uncertainty of the Brexit outcome and the Bank of England's market intervention that did not exceed expectations.
Even though the fund account has reserve cash of up to $30 billion that can be mobilized to the maximum extent, he did not dare to add new positions rashly and go long further under such circumstances.
same……
At this time, 'Mitsui Yoshitomo Investment Hong Kong City Branch' and 'Tianhe Capital', the two major long-term main institutions linked with 'Huifeng Global No. 1 Main Hedge Fund'.
Sato and Gu Chijiang were watching the pound exchange rate stabilize again in the 1.4750 to 1.4850 point range.
They dare not change strategies rashly or increase or decrease positions.
After all, at this time, if the fund increases its holdings, it may face the possibility of Brexit results being lower than expected, or being hit by negative news, which will further expand the fund's losses. If the fund reduces its holdings, it may also be reduced to a relative bottom range, dying at the dawn before many positive news arrive, and missing the opportunity to reduce losses.
Of course, this also applies to the main short-selling institutions in the sedimentation field at this time.
'Hua Yi Capital' headed by Su Yi, and the two major short-selling institutions 'Huayin International' and 'Aberdeen Asset Management' which are linked to the institutions he heads.
Frederick, Meng Shengfei and Kong Fansheng.
Faced with the continued shrinking and sideways fluctuations in the pound sterling exchange rate, I don't have too many ideas.
Everyone remained silent, waiting for 4 o'clock in the afternoon, and waiting for the bombardment of new good and bad news after the official referendum channel was opened.
And the entire market at this time.
Not limited to the British pound exchange rate market, but also in the euro exchange rate market, gold spot market, US dollar index exchange rate market and other mainstream markets where global capital is concentrated, the main capital institutions have temporarily quieted down. Only a large number of retail investors and speculative funds from all over the world are still trading fiercely.
"The market volume continues to shrink, and it feels like a precursor to a coming storm!"
Seeing that the time was approaching 3 p.m. and the market volume of the pound exchange rate was still shrinking, in the mainland, in Shanghai, the main hot money group of the Shanghai Super Short Gang where Su Yi was located still held a large number of short positions and had turned losses into profits, making a huge profit of nearly one million US dollars, Xu Qiao couldn't help but sigh.
"The storm is about to come!" Old Wu couldn't help but respond in the group.
"The global capital should be focusing on the pound exchange rate market and the Brexit referendum, right?" Lao Zhang said, "I'm afraid that this Brexit referendum will not only cause a major earthquake in the global foreign exchange market, but also in the global stock and bond markets, right?"
"That's for sure." Brother Chen said with a smile, "As the result of the Brexit referendum becomes clearer, whether it's the A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, or the US stocks, there will be a violent reaction. I guess after the Brexit referendum channel is opened, many people will have trouble sleeping in the ten or twenty hours before the referendum result is announced."
"Brother Chen, when do you think the most intense market fluctuations will occur?" Xu Qiao asked.
Brother Chen thought for a moment and said, "That's hard to say. In the current long-short confrontation, everyone is actually following expectations and gambling. No one can predict the real outcome. If we say that the market will fluctuate most violently during this period, I estimate it should be after the referendum channel is closed and the voting results are counted in each voting area. This time point... should be tomorrow morning, or the second half of the US market tonight."
"Oh... looks like I have to stay up late again today." Xu Qiao sighed softly.
Old Wu laughed and said teasingly, "I think it's worth it to earn millions or even tens of millions of dollars by staying up all night. No matter what, in the next ten hours or so, the global financial market will experience major fluctuations."
Having said that, Old Wu turned his attention to the British pound exchange rate market again.
As the market trading time goes on, the real-time transaction volume in the pound exchange rate market is still declining. Not only are the main funds opening very few positions, but even the speculative market retail investors are showing less desire to open positions.
And this sign of continued shrinkage...
The situation did not start to improve until 4 p.m. Yanjing time, when the voting channel for the UK's Brexit referendum was officially opened.
When the referendum voting channel is officially opened, the trading time enters the European trading session.
The exchange rate trend of the pound has become intense again.
However, since the voting period lasts until 8 p.m. Yanjing time, and the votes cannot be officially counted during the voting, no one can know the true voting results.
After trading became active again, the pound sterling exchange rate still did not show any unilateral breakthrough pattern.
At 5 pm, the pound sterling exchange rate rebounded and returned to 1.4850.
At 6:38 pm, the pound sterling exchange rate returned to 1.4900.
At 8 o'clock in the evening, after the official voting channel was closed, the pound exchange rate reached a high of 1.4978 points, and then fell back again, fluctuating downward.
In general……
Even in the few hours after the official voting channel was opened.
The market's bullish expectations are increasing, and everyone's expectations for the referendum results continue to lean towards remaining in the EU, but this still has not been able to support the pound sterling exchange rate to break through the 1.5000 mark and return to the trend pattern where the main bullish institutions occupy an absolute dominant position.
At 9:30 p.m., when the market trading time enters the U.S. trading session.
The pound sterling exchange rate fell back to around 1.4850.
After that...
Throughout the U.S. trading session, the pound sterling exchange rate has been fluctuating between 1.4700 and 1.4900 points. At the same time, amid the volatile trend of the pound sterling exchange rate, the long and short positions in the market have once again risen, approaching the scale of 600 million lots.
The entire volatile trend continued until 6 a.m. on June 24.
When time once again turned to the Asian trading session, after twelve consecutive hours of counting, the official voting results of each voting area began to be announced one after another.
The first area to be announced was the Gibraltar counting area, where institutional consensus expectations were relatively strong.
At 6:37 in the morning, the Gibraltar counting area announced the final results of the citizens' vote. According to the results, the number of citizens who supported continuing to stay in the EU reached 19322, while the number of people who supported leaving the EU reached 823. In the entire voting area, the proportion of remaining in the EU reached 95.9%.
Immediately afterwards, Gibraltar announced the final voting results.
The Newcastle voting district, an important swing district predicted by institutions and also a voting district with relatively high uncertainty, announced its final voting results.
According to the voting results, Newcastle voting district.
A total of 65404 people supported remaining in the EU, while 63598 supported leaving the EU, which means that 51% supported remaining in the EU and 49% supported leaving the EU.
The two districts that announced their results first, unsurprisingly...
Both far exceeded the expectations of many financial institutions around the world for the Brexit referendum results.
So, at 7:07 in the morning, less than a minute after the Newcastle vote results were officially announced.
The pound sterling exchange rate rose unhindered, showing a straight-line upward trend, breaking through the 1.4900 and 1.5000 levels in one leap, surging by nearly 220 points in one minute, directly breaking through the 1.5000 level and reaching around 1.5020.
And this rapid fluctuation...
It also makes the 'Hua Yi Cheng Yuan No. 1' the main fund product managed by Su Yi.
In an instant, the profits of more than $4 million were reduced, and the main fund product he was in charge of was almost back to the cost line on the edge of break-even.
"Boss Su, the voting results in the two swing districts of Gibraltar and Newcastle are all leaning towards staying in the EU. This... doesn't feel good!"
We saw the pound return to the 1.5000 mark at lightning speed.
Inside Huayin International, in the trading room of the second investment department, Meng Shengfei looked nervous, his heartstrings were completely tense. Seeing that nearly 100 million US dollars of profits had disappeared from the fund account, he hurriedly told Su Yi through instant messaging.
Su Yi was also concentrating on the trend of the pound exchange rate at this time, and responded: "Don't worry, the results of the most important swing voting district have not been announced yet. There is no need to be too nervous about the temporary bullish rebound."
"The pound exchange rate has returned to the 1.5000 mark, which is not a good thing for us." Kong Fansheng from Huayin International Investment Department frowned and said hurriedly, "Boss Su, the bullish sentiment of the entire market has risen after the announcement of the two referendum results. The net long position in the market is soaring, while the short position is continuing to decline sharply."
"Indeed, there are a lot of short positions, and they are being closed at stop loss." Frederick, the main fund product manager of Aberdeen Asset Management Evolution No. 1, who was also paying attention to the trend of the pound exchange rate, responded, "But now that things have come to this, we can only trust our previous judgment and have confidence in holding positions. Among the dozen voting districts, only two have been announced so far, and the number of people who support staying in the EU is not much higher than the number of people who support leaving the EU. There is a chance that the subsequent voting results will be reversed."
"Alas, I can only hold on to my position with confidence." Meng Shengfei sighed and said, "At this moment, even if I want to retreat, it's probably too late. Come on... let the storm come even harder!"
Following his words...
The next moment, as expected.
The Sunderland voting district, which had a relatively high degree of uncertainty in the forecasts of global financial institutions, announced its final voting results shortly afterwards.
According to the voting results released by the Sunderland voting area.
The number of people who support remaining in the EU is 51930, while the number of people who support leaving the EU is unexpectedly high at 82394.
This is more than 3 more than the number of people who support remaining in the EU.
This also resulted in the entire voting area having support for remaining in the EU at only 39%, while support for leaving the EU reached 61%, far exceeding market expectations.
This result far exceeded the previous estimates of major financial institutions around the world and was completely beyond everyone's expectations.
And, thanks to the data from the Sunderland voting district.
This directly caused the results of the three major polling districts that have announced the results to change from a situation where the number of people supporting remaining in the EU was significantly ahead one minute ago to a situation where the number of people supporting Brexit was significantly ahead.
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