Rebirth of the Capital Legend

"Hey, why are market funds going to the concept of 'SOE reform'?" After the market opened in the afternoon, it was noticed that the main market branch of 'SOE reform' was increasingly favored by active fund groups in the market, and more and more small and medium-sized stocks with related concepts rose sharply. At this time, in the trading room of 'Hua Rui Excellent Growth No. 1' fund product in Hua Rui Fund Management Company, Jia Yongxiang, the trading team leader who had been observing the changes in the market, said in surprise, "I didn't expect this line to be hyped up. There hasn't been any good news about 'SOE reform' in the market recently, right?"

After hearing Jia Yongxiang's words, fund manager Song Shaopu took over and said with a laugh: "The story of 'SOE reform' has always been the favorite theme of market speculation funds. As long as the market sentiment supports it and there are even a few rumors inside and outside the market, and there are funds willing to speculate, they can be hyped up.

However, it is obvious that the current concept of "state-owned enterprise reform" is the main theme.

It should be an overlay concept on the main line of "big infrastructure".

If you look at the stocks with the concept of "state-owned enterprise reform" that are currently moving in the market, they are basically superimposed with the concepts of related sectors of the "big infrastructure" main line.

My personal understanding is that this is a deepening of the main theme of "big infrastructure".

Short-term speculators in the market found that the favorable policies of "big infrastructure" alone could not support a large number of other active funds to continue to follow suit at high levels at this position, so they dug up and superimposed this branch line to create stronger market expectations and follow-up sentiment. "

"So... this is a good thing?" Jia Yongxiang turned around and looked at Song Shaopu and asked.

Song Shaopu nodded slightly and replied, "It should be a good thing. With more branch line expectations, the market expectations and follow-up sentiment will be strengthened, which should enable this wave of 'big infrastructure' main line speculation to go further, and the bottom chips will be more fully traded, which is also conducive to the long-term market trend of this core main line."

"Unfortunately, our positions are not very sufficient, so it is not very friendly." Jia Yongxiang said, "We can only watch the market rise and cannot follow up on a large scale."

Song Shaopu responded: "There are not many major institutions that have been lurking in low-level sectors such as real estate, coal, steel, nonferrous metals, and construction in advance. Even Huayi Capital is estimated to have only recently intervened in this core line, and currently does not have multiple positions.

So, everyone is basically on the same starting line now.

How the core theme of "big infrastructure" will develop in the future and how far the market can go all depend on the combined strength of the market and the recognition of the fundamental reversal of this core theme and future expectations by various major funds. It is not decided by any major fund or who can control the market. "

"Even Huayi Capital probably didn't expect that after buying shares, the main theme of 'big infrastructure' would ferment to this extent in the short term?" Jia Yongxiang said, "Speaking of which... why didn't Huayi Capital buy shares secretly when it was building its position? Instead, it exposed its position and the motivation for market manipulation at the very beginning."

"How many eyes are watching the concept stocks held by Huayi Capital's Huayi Expedition 1 fund product?" Song Shaopu smiled and said, "If not a thousand, at least eight hundred, right? So many eyes are watching Huayi Capital for research.

Once this institution buys a large position in related stocks, it is difficult for the news not to leak and it is also difficult for it not to leave traces on the market.

You should know that the current scale of the "Huayi Expedition No. 1" fund product, calculated based on its latest published net value, has reached more than 600 billion.

A huge fund product of more than 600 billion yuan, given the current market liquidity.

As long as you buy on a large scale, how can there be no traces left?

Therefore, when the institution "Huayi Capital" was building a large-scale position in the main line of "big infrastructure", the relevant trading seats appeared on the Dragon and Tiger List of the two cities. It is very likely that it was not under its own control.

Furthermore, the main line of "big infrastructure" involves many stocks and can accommodate a huge amount of funds.

There is also the entire main line. Basically all stocks are in an obvious oversold state after more than half a year of continuous decline. Among them, there are many stocks that are below net value. In this case, if the goal of "Huayi Capital" is a long-term investment goal rather than a short-term investment goal, buying 10% lower or 10% higher should not have any impact.

What's more, the other party's financial resources are so huge.

By increasing your position intermittently, even if you buy at a high price temporarily, you can quickly dilute the cost, and you don’t have to worry about buying at the wrong point in the short term. ”

"That's right." After listening to Song Shaopu's analysis, Jia Yongxiang nodded and said, "The larger the funds, the higher the tolerance for short-term buying points. However... Mr. Song, now that the market is developing like this, what should we do? Continue to wait and see, or continue to increase positions as planned?"

Song Shaopu pondered for a moment and responded, "Let's increase our holdings as planned. I just said that if we are short-term traders, we need to choose the right time. But if our trading goal is long-term, we don't need to worry too much about timing. As long as the underlying logic has not changed and the corresponding target stock's stock price is still low, we can continue to buy. Just keep an eye on the logic and valuation."

"Okay." Jia Yongxiang continued to nod, "Then I will follow the established position building plan and let everyone continue to buy."

After saying this, without waiting for Song Shaopu's response, he quickly issued corresponding trading instructions to all the traders in the trading room, asking them to continue buying target stocks in the main area of ​​"big infrastructure".

Along with his instructions.

At the same time, a group of traders were typing away on their keyboards, putting money into target stocks of "big infrastructure".

In the two stock markets, the active capital groups in the entire market, as well as the retail investors following the trend, are still focusing on the main area of ​​"big infrastructure".

However, the branch line of 'SOE reform' has dispersed some of the active funds.

As a result, the sentiment of concentrated capital speculation on many small and medium-sized concept stocks in the main field of "big infrastructure" has gradually receded, and a more consistent limit-up tide effect has not formed.

After that...

As market trading hours continue to advance.

At 1:40 p.m., a number of popular stocks in the main area of ​​"big infrastructure" all rose to intraday highs, and many small and medium-cap concept stocks had already hit the daily limit. Active follow-up funds in the market began to overflow from real estate, steel, coal, nonferrous metals, construction and other sectors to consumer and financial sectors, resulting in varying degrees of active buying in the white goods, liquor, insurance, banking sectors, and their corresponding core stocks.

At 2:08 p.m., the stock of 'Xinli Finance', a concept stock in the insurance sector, hit the daily limit and led to a rebound in a number of oversold stocks in the 'Internet finance' sector.

At 2:17 p.m., in the steel sector, Linggang Group and Shaoguan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. both hit the daily limit due to the continuous buying of large orders from major players. As the market began to anticipate the merger of Wuhan Iron and Steel Group and China Baosteel, many small-cap steel stocks rose in tandem.

At 2:33 p.m., the Shanghai Composite Index rose close to 2%, showing a trend of continuous large positive lines. However, the ChiNext Index at the same time was still weak, maintaining a barely positive trend.

At 2:46 p.m., when the market entered the last 15 minutes of trading, active funds overflowing from the core theme of the market, or profit-taking funds worried that there would be a divergence and pullback in the core theme of "big infrastructure" tomorrow, began to flow out of popular sectors such as "real estate", "nonferrous metals", "steel", "coal", and "construction", and turned to sectors such as technology and new energy industry chains that were severely oversold in the market, switching between highs and lows.

After 2:50 p.m....

The ChiNext Index began to rise rapidly in the last 10 minutes of trading, narrowing the gap in growth with the Shanghai Composite Index.

During this period, the Shanghai Composite Index gradually declined from a gain of nearly 2 points and showed a diving trend at the end of the trading day.

Finally, when 3 o'clock in the afternoon arrived, the two markets closed.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index was fixed at a 1.38% increase, while the ChiNext Index was fixed at a 0.79% increase. The difference in the increase between the two has narrowed to less than 1%.

In addition to the index performance, the overall market.

Although sectors in the main area of ​​"big infrastructure", such as real estate, steel, coal, nonferrous metals, building decoration, building materials..., showed a certain degree of divergence in the last ten minutes of trading, and many stocks within the sectors showed a downward trend in the last trading minutes.

But in terms of the whole day's trend, the market's active main capital group.

It is still mainly concentrated in the main field of "big infrastructure".

In the last ten minutes of the trading session, stocks related to the technology and new energy industry chains, which had seen unusual movements and rises, continued to perform weaker than the broader market.

This shows that the main market style has not changed.

However, with the continued promotion of the core theme of "big infrastructure" and the continuous expansion of volume.

Previously, many groups of funds that had been lurking in this core main line area, including retail investors, hot money, and institutions, began to take profits, switch between high and low positions, and adjust their portfolios and change stocks.

"Although there were some small differences in funds at the end of the trading day, overall, there is no big problem with this trend, which is quite in line with expectations."

Facing the two markets' situation that had already been fixed after the closing, Xu Qiao, a member of the main hot money group of 'Magic City Super Short Gang', briefly reviewed the market and said with a smile.

"The market is still developing around the main theme of 'big infrastructure'." Lao Zhang responded, "But it is obvious that in the last 10 minutes of the closing, the core active funds gathered in the main field of 'big infrastructure', as well as the potential profit funds, were eager to take profits."

"The high-low switching behavior of funds at the end of the trading day may have a certain impact on the trend of tomorrow's opening." At this time, Old Wu also said, "It is estimated that there will be relatively large divergences in the market trend tomorrow. At least, the funds chasing highs today may find it difficult to take away the profits of the day."

"There are indeed signs of capital rushing in the last trading session." Brother Chen confirmed the flow of major funds in the last ten minutes of trading for many popular stocks in the market, and said, "Tomorrow's market divergence should be no suspense. The main suspense at present is whether the core theme of tomorrow's 'big infrastructure' can withstand the divergence of emotions and continue to open up upward market space, turning from weak to strong."

"Brother Chen, what do you think?" Xu Qiao asked, "Tomorrow's market divergence, is it a buying point or a selling point?"

Brother Chen pondered for a moment, smiled, and said, "It depends on the trading angle and the logic used to make the judgment. From a short-term trading perspective, tomorrow's divergence is likely to be a buying point in trading, but from a long-term logic perspective, tomorrow's divergence is a buying point."

"What do you mean?" Lao Zhang asked.

Brother Chen patiently explained: "The outbreak of this round of 'big infrastructure' main line was relatively hasty. Before the entire main line erupted, various funds in the market, including the 'Hua Yi Capital' institution headed by Brother Su, should not have had corresponding expectations and did not arrange positions in advance.

That is to say, in the core area of ​​"big infrastructure".

There are very few potential low-level trading opportunities.

The vast majority of investors in the market are retail investors who were trapped after intervening in last year's bull market or during the stock market crash at the beginning of the year. There are already a few major institutional funds that have not yet completed their positions in the past six months.

In other words, it is the outbreak of this round of "big infrastructure" main line.

It was entirely done by the joint efforts of retail investors, hot money and institutions in the market.

Moreover, whether it is newly entered institutions, retail investors, or hot money, none of them have any cost advantages, and everyone's costs are almost the same.

However, everyone's costs are similar, but their motivations for trading are different.

Hot money engages in short-term trading, and makes profits from the price difference of stock prices after a short-term surge in stock prices. The vast majority of retail investors follow the same operating logic.

In contrast, institutions have been heavily involved in the core theme of "big infrastructure".

Most of them have noticed the fundamental reversal in the real estate industry, and expect that the core stocks in the main line of "big infrastructure" in the future will be able to thoroughly improve their fundamentals and achieve explosive performance under the favorable policies of "supply-side structural reform", "New Era Land and Maritime Silk Road", "new infrastructure" and "new urbanization construction", and in the continued recovery of the national real estate market. That is why they have intervened.

Their holding targets, as well as their expected targets, are long-term.

In other words, there is a contradiction in trading logic between institutions, hot money, and retail investors who follow the trend.

Moreover, during this period of time, many large institutions in the market did not get enough chips. This means that once there is a huge market divergence on the core theme of "big infrastructure", these institutions will most likely continue to buy chips and increase their positions.

That’s why I said tomorrow is both a selling point and a buying point.”