Rebirth of the Capital Legend

"Isn't the 'big infrastructure' line considered a breakthrough now?" Lao Zhang asked in confusion, "It seems that whether it is the real estate, building decoration, building materials sector, or the nonferrous metals, steel, and coal sectors, the corresponding sector index trends, as well as the related core hot stocks, have opened up upward space and have formed a sustained upward trend, right?

Even though the subsequent volume was weak, the selling pressure from profit-taking and unwinding positions increased, and the trend showed violent fluctuations.

It probably won't fall back again.

At most, an oscillation platform will be formed in the area where the trapped chips are concentrated.

In general, if we continue to focus on the popular stocks in the main line of "big infrastructure", the cost-effectiveness of profit and loss is still very high, and it is worth continuing to look at it. "

"Old Zhang is right." Xu Qiao responded, "Brother Wu, you are too conservative. At present, there is no obvious risk in the core theme of 'big infrastructure'. If we want to withdraw... I think we can wait until the active capital groups in the market no longer continue to converge on the core theme of 'big infrastructure', and other main line sectors in the market can take over the capital groups that have taken profits and reduced positions in the main field of 'big infrastructure', or when there is an obvious 'high-low switch', it will not be too late to leave."

"If the market sentiment and fund divergence of the core theme of 'big infrastructure' expand again, which theme do you think the current market's 'high-low switching' idea will fall on?" Lao Zhang thought for a while and asked, "In other words, which low-level theme has an active fund group that can take over the retreat of the 'big infrastructure' theme, as well as a large number of retail investors who follow suit?"

"In terms of relative stock price positions, it is undoubtedly the technology-oriented sectors such as film and television media, and Internet software." Lao Wu said, "However, these major sectors have locked-in shares and a heavier chip structure than the main line of 'big infrastructure' before the launch. In addition, the fundamentals are not good and there are no big expectations. It is estimated that even if some funds flow in to rebound, it will be difficult to have a sustainable trend."

After hearing what Old Wu said, Brother Chen pondered for a moment and responded, “In the two major sectors of Internet software and film and television media, although the share prices of many popular stocks have fallen a lot compared to last year’s bull market, whether it is valuation, expectations, or logic, in terms of rebound factors, they are all lacking.

I am not optimistic about these two major sectors, which will subsequently take over the active funds withdrawing from the main line of "big infrastructure".

We are also not optimistic that these two major sectors will be able to develop a consistent trend in the subsequent market 'high and low switching'.

In fact, compared with the two major sectors of Internet software and film and television media, the "new energy industry chain" that has undergone sufficient adjustments has the logic of taking on high-level funds, bottoming out and rebounding, and "switching between high and low" market conditions. "

"'New energy industry chain' sector?" Xu Qiao said in surprise, "Hasn't this main sector been abandoned by market funds? It seems that since Brother Su's large-scale reduction of positions in this main sector and the investment in the 'big infrastructure' main sector, this main sector has not risen much, and no consistent capital force has been formed. Now this sector... the attention of funds in the market is even lower.

Moreover, isn’t there a rumor in the market that the country will reduce subsidies for new energy vehicles next year?

If the subsidy policy decline is true, then after losing the support of policy subsidies, the logic of the entire new energy industry chain will probably be re-evaluated.

After all, we all know...

The reason why the domestic "new energy industry chain" is so prosperous at present is that its scale is expanding so rapidly.

The main source of support is the subsidy policy.

Without the support of subsidy policies, it can be clearly perceived from the fundamentals alone that in the current real market, people's awareness of new energy vehicles is not high, and the level of acceptance is not high. In addition, new energy vehicles still have no competitive advantage over traditional vehicles.

This means that the market has experienced explosive growth over the past year.

The overall market demand has not actually been opened up, and the market for "new energy vehicles" can be said to be still in the dark.

As for when the dawn will come, no one knows. "

"Although there have been many cases of subsidy fraud in the domestic new energy industry chain in the past six months, on the road of automobile electrification, both domestic enterprises and national policies will not stop." Brother Chen took over and said, "This is a great opportunity for my country to overtake others and seize the future global automobile market share. In other words, judging from a macro perspective, the underlying logic of the 'new energy industry' is still smooth.

The "Hua Yi Capital" institution headed by the Su brothers recently massively reduced its holdings of core stocks in the "new energy industry chain".

I guess the first reason is that it has been rising continuously for more than half a year.

Many core stocks in the main line of the 'new energy industry chain' have already delivered on most of the expectations, and their share prices have risen to relatively high levels.

There is another reason. It is likely that he judged that the opportunity of the "big infrastructure" main line at that time was more cost-effective.

At the same time, we do not want to reduce our holdings in the pharmaceutical, consumer, liquor and white goods sectors, so we made corresponding adjustments.

Whether in public or in any market rumors, the Su brothers should not have expressed a pessimistic view on the future of the "new energy industry chain".

And, I’m going to make a bold prediction…

It is very likely that the expectations for the main line of "big infrastructure" will be reflected in the stock price.

The "Hua Yi Capital" institution headed by the Su brothers will return to the main line of "new energy industry chain" for layout.

Looking at future development, in terms of opportunities in emerging industries, I think there is no opportunity with higher certainty than the main line of 'new energy industry chain'."

"Indeed, from the perspective of underlying logic and the future development of the industry, there are indeed relatively large opportunities in the 'new energy industry chain' related industries." Old Wu responded, "This should be a bit like the huge investment opportunities brought to the main line of Internet software in the market when 13G networks were fully rolled out in 14 and 4, and mobile Internet and smart phones exploded.

I remember that at that time, many Internet software companies in the market did not have much performance.

But in the end, with the deepening of mobile Internet and as smartphones began to completely replace feature phones, expectations were fulfilled in terms of performance.

From the perspective of industry development...

At present, the domestic new energy vehicle industry and even the market demand are still in the dark.

But darkness does not mean there is no chance, because no matter how long the darkness lasts, dawn will always come and will inevitably come.

As long as the industry's final outcome is good, the underlying logic of the explosion of market demand will not be falsified in a short period of time.

And a logic that cannot be falsified will naturally bring about endless expectations.

With the continued expected space, are you still worried that no one will hype it up or take over?

Moreover, as Brother Chen said, after this period of full adjustment, especially after the news that Huayi Capital, headed by the Su brothers, withdrew from the main line of the new energy industry chain.

The 'new energy industry chain' line has seen a significant decline in the past half month.

The internal chips have been fully adjusted and digested during the continuous decline and correction.

When this chip structure stabilizes again, once the short-term speculation sentiment of the "big infrastructure" main line begins to decline, once the active capital groups in the market begin to withdraw from the "big infrastructure" main line field and flow into the low-level main line sectors, then... this main line sector will still be very easy to hype up.

Moreover, due to the core theme of "new energy industry chain", it has the previous continuous money-making effect.

Once the main funds concentrate on speculation in this direction and drive up the market sentiment, it is actually very easy to attract retail investors to follow suit and it is also easy to create a bullish sentiment.

After all, whether it is large funds or retail investors in the market, they all have trading inertia. "

"That makes sense." After listening to Brother Chen and Old Wu's analysis, Old Zhang, who had been deep in thought, responded, "It seems that I have to slowly invest in stocks along the main line of the 'new energy industry chain'."

"I still think that if the concerns about the decline of policy subsidies are not eliminated, it will be difficult for the core line of 'new energy industry chain' to have a sustained rebound." After thinking for a while, Xu Qiao said, "Relatively speaking, I feel that the opportunities in the petrochemical sector seem to be greater."

"The petrochemical sector is indeed somewhat underestimated," said Brother Chen. "According to past historical trends, the petrochemical sector is generally linked to the nonferrous metals sector, but this round seems to have fallen behind a lot. In addition, the chemical industry has some signs of a major cycle reversal this year, so it is indeed possible to do it. However, this sector is inferior to the 'big infrastructure' in terms of imagination and underlying logic, and the future expectations are not as clear as the core theme of the 'new energy industry chain'. Therefore, even if there is a rebound, it is estimated that the trend will not be smooth, and it is difficult to form a consistent expectation of active funds in the market."

"If you ask me, we should just take one step at a time and see what happens," said Lao Zhang. "It is necessary to predict the future market trend, but there is no need to be too persistent. It seems easier to follow the market trend. If the sentiment reverses and the market switches from high to low, we can keep up with it immediately with our capital."

In his opinion, there is no such thing as tens or hundreds of billions of funds.

There is no need to predict the main trend of the market and make a prediction on position adjustment in advance. After all, even if the market liquidity is not sufficient, the volume of hundreds of billions is enough to support hundreds of millions of funds, which can be entered and exited at any time, and the position can be adjusted at any time.

After saying that, he turned his attention back to the two market charts.

During the ten minutes or so that they were talking and discussing, new changes had already occurred in the two stock markets.

The popular core concept stocks related to the "big infrastructure" main line and the industry-leading stocks are still rising continuously, but many concept stocks in the back row and non-core component stocks have begun to show a trend of not following the rise, and are slightly falling behind.

At the same time, the main sectors include medicine, liquor, white appliances, and consumption.

Related concept stocks, as well as core component stocks and industry-leading stocks, have begun to rise again and gather funds to continue to rise, seemingly diverting buying funds from the main line of "big infrastructure".

As for the core theme of "new energy industry chain" that they just talked about.

There are also low-level main-line sectors such as Internet software, film and television media, electronic information, and military industry, which are still in a downward trend as large funds continue to withdraw.

This market trend...

He began to sense a decline in mainline investment and speculative sentiment, and began to become alert.

However, even though he was alert, he was not in a hurry to reduce his positions and lock in profits. After all, the lagging behind of the stocks in the back row does not mean that there are risks in the current market of the leading stocks.

On the contrary, at this stage, the stocks in the back row are falling behind.

Funds related to the market speculation on the main line of "big infrastructure" will further focus on core leading stocks, causing the relevant core leading stocks to move out of a more rapid trend of shrinking volume and rising.

In other words, at this stage when short-term sentiment is about to reverse, it is the stage when core leading stocks accelerate their rise with shrinking volume and the profits from holdings increase most substantially.

Of course, as he gradually realized the short-term risks in the market...

At this time, there are many retail groups gathered on the online stock investment exchange platform, as well as a large number of retail investors who follow suit.

They were not aware of this risk at all.

On the contrary, many people feel that the trend of the core theme of "big infrastructure" is still getting stronger.

I think that you should not reduce your position at this time, but should continue to increase your position and chase the expansion of buying volume to grab the high-quality chips at this stage.

"The difference between the growth rates of the ChiNext Index and the Shanghai Composite Index has once again reached more than 1%."

As the entire 'big infrastructure' main line began to accelerate its rise, and the corresponding concept leading stocks were shrinking and hitting the daily limit, seeing the polarization trend of the main board and the ChiNext index began to stand out again, and the differentiation trend became more and more exaggerated, Huang Qingyun, the trading team leader of the 'Shino Future No. 1' fund product trading room of Sino Private Equity Fund Company, couldn't help but frowned slightly and said, "The entire 'big infrastructure' main line, after swallowing up the new influx of incremental funds, is still siphoning the stop-loss funds of other main line sectors. If this continues... I feel that the market buying will be exhausted soon!"

Although their fund products and main positions have moved to the main line of "big infrastructure".

Although the continued surge in the main line of "big infrastructure" is beneficial to the net value performance of their funds.

However, such a polarized trend and the continued large-scale short squeeze made him clearly feel the approaching adjustment risk and also made him obviously worried about the subsequent market trend.

"The leading stocks in the front row have all seen a sharp rise in volume, while the concept stocks in the back row have continued to see a stagnation in volume, and are clearly unable to keep up with the growth of the leading stocks..." Men Xingtao, product manager of the 'Sino Future No. 1' fund, took over and said, "You are right. If this continues, it feels like the sentiment of the main line of 'big infrastructure' is about to turn around."