Rebirth of the Capital Legend

"It seems that the timing of the 'Gusu system' hot money to launch the 'new energy industry chain' main line market today is still very good." Zhao Zhiyuan said, "However, the volume performance of this abnormal main line at the end of the trading day is obviously insufficient. It is estimated that the trend will fluctuate after the opening of tomorrow's market."

"It is possible to step back, but the general logic of the market trend should not change." Zhang Wei replied, "In the core theme of 'big infrastructure', except for the core leading stocks dominated by institutions, it is difficult for other related stocks to continue to expand upward in the short term. The internal chip structure is gradually loosening, and the profit-taking and unwinding funds in the market have a stronger desire to stop profits. At the same time, the 'new energy industry chain' line has clearly hit the market recognition at the end of today. In tomorrow's market trend, various active fund groups will continue to flow into the low-level oversold concept sectors. It should be a high probability event. Our trading strategy should also go in this direction."

"There's nothing wrong with the trading strategy going in this direction," Zhao Zhiyuan said. "But what about the target? Lao Zhang, Lao Liang...what do you think?"

Hearing Zhao Zhiyuan's question, Liang Jiucheng, who had been thinking about tomorrow's market trend, came to his senses and responded: "According to today's market feedback, the stocks with the most recognizable 'new energy industry chain' main concept at the end of the trading day are 'Duo Fluoride', and the two leading stocks of 'Ganfeng Lithium' and 'Tianqi Lithium'. If there is no news stimulus from other stocks tonight, then these stocks tomorrow will most likely be followed by a large number of funds in the market to buy more."

"The 'Do-Fluoride' check has a high degree of market recognition." Zhao Zhiyuan said, "Plus, this check also experienced a wave of multiple increases at the end of last year. The retail investors in the market have a certain inertial memory of this check. However, according to today's Dragon and Tiger List data, the two major seats of the 'Suzhou Group' hot money have bought a total of nearly 8000 million funds. This means that the liquidity of the 'Do-Fluoride' check is a bit of a monopoly. The chip structure is probably not very good!"

"If the market sentiment is to switch between high and low, and the related logic can be followed by most of the active funds and retail investors, then..." Zhang Wei thought for a moment and said, "It doesn't seem to matter if we give a helping hand to the Gusu group of hot money."

Zhao Zhiyuan thought for a while, and cast his eyes on the Internet software and film and television media sectors, which have basically no major hot money and other active large funds paying attention to and building positions, and said: "As the current low-level oversold sectors, if the market's next trading trend is the idea of ​​'high-low switching', then don't the Internet software and film and television media, which are more seriously oversold, have any chance? If we talk about the recognition of oversold stocks in the market, I feel that 'Netspeed Technology', 'LeTV', 'Storm Technology', 'Eastern Fortune', 'Tonghuashun'... These stocks have obviously higher recognition, and are more likely to arouse the consensus of a large number of retail investors in the market, forming an expectation of 'high-low switching' oversold rebound speculation!

Moreover, compare several core stocks in the main field of 'new energy industry chain'.

Obviously, the chip structure of these stocks is better, and at the current position, there is at least 30% room to go up, and there is no excessive selling pressure. "

"But what are the advantages other than the chip structure?" Liang Jiucheng took over and said, "If you want to arouse the consensus of all active funds in the market, in addition to the chip structure being conducive to capital speculation, the most important thing is to have expectations and the core speculation logic to support it.

At present, the mobile Internet market has been approaching saturation, and the trend of smartphone replacement has ended.

In the field of film and television media, after large-scale ticket subsidies were implemented in domestic theaters, the relevant scale of companies in the industry chain and box office revenue are shrinking as policies are gradually declining.

As for the market demand for new media and traditional media, there is even less prospect and expectation.

Let’s look at the main line of ‘new energy industry chain’.

Although there have been rumors that the relevant subsidy policy will be reduced next year, and that most companies in the industry have been defrauding policy subsidies and have no real core technology.

But from the perspective of future macroeconomic development strategies and future changes in the automotive industry.

"New energy vehicles" is an inevitable development path and the inevitable future innovation path for the entire automotive industry.

No matter how tortuous this road is, as long as the macro logic remains unchanged, there will always be expectations.

In addition, the impact of the large-scale reduction of holdings and withdrawal of the institution "Huayi Capital" some time ago has led to a continuous decline in the stock prices of stocks related to this core main line, resulting in the current oversold phenomenon.

These factors have constituted the current market trend of "switching between high and low" and developing towards the main line of "new energy industry chain".

In fact...

If you carefully review today's intraday market trends, pay attention to the volume changes and intraday trends of each main line.

It can be seen that when the main line of "big infrastructure" diverged for the first time today, that is, when the market was approaching midday closing in the morning, there were also funds and active hot money trying to "switch high and low" and guide the funds gathered in the main line of "big infrastructure" to follow up on the low-level oversold main line.

At that time, this active hot money was the first to lead the oversold main line.

These are the core concept stocks in the Internet software, film and television media, electronic information and other sectors that you just mentioned, Lao Zhao.

Unfortunately, this capital that guided the market to "switch between high and low" failed to stimulate market sentiment and arouse expectations and consensus among various market funds.

Therefore, after the afternoon opening, the bullish sentiment of the main line of "big infrastructure" warmed up again.

Then, in the closing stage, the 'Suzhou Group' of hot money guided the main line of the 'new energy industry chain'.

Actually, in my opinion...

In fact, the core theme of the 'new energy industry chain' was able to form such an oversold rebound in the late trading, quickly gain market recognition, and gain the unanimous follow-up of many short-term capital groups in the market. The real fundamental reason is the credit of the 'Gusu system' hot money, but more fundamental factors are that the chip structure of the 'big infrastructure' line itself has begun to loosen. At the same time, the core logic and expectations of the 'new energy industry chain' main line are good, and there are short-term speculative opportunities, which have room for speculation and cost-effectiveness. "

"Lao Liang is right." Zhang Wei responded, "In addition to the guidance of large funds, the most important factor for the formation of a main market trend is the expectation and core logic recognized by other major funds in the market and the majority of retail investors. Only when the expectation and logic correspond to the recovery of sentiment can a sustainable market trend be formed. Otherwise... forced trading is a pure impulse trend. Even if you can get in, it is difficult to withdraw safely without a large number of follow-up orders."

"In that case..." Zhao Zhiyuan pondered for a moment after listening to Liang Jiucheng's analysis, and said, "If we want to make a 'high-low switch' oversold rebound, we really can't avoid the main line of 'new energy industry chain' and the stocks that are mainly guided by the 'Gusu system' hot money?"

Liang Jiucheng said: "The speculative logic line of 'oversold rebound' is really like this, so I said that the timing of the 'Gusu system' hot money to take action today and guide the market to switch the market trend is very subtle, and the related targets they lead are also quite accurate."

"Okay." Zhao Zhiyuan nodded and said, "Since we can't avoid them, we can only help them. I didn't expect... these guys have such a keen sense of smell."

Zhang Wei laughed and said, "The 'Suzhou Group' is a bunch of hot money that is good at this kind of guidance. However, although this group of funds has a keen sense of market changes and main line rotation, the pattern is usually not very good. Basically, they will dump the market when there is profit.

This group of guys' trading ideas and position structures in the main area of ​​"big infrastructure" can be seen before.

I remember when the core theme of "big infrastructure" just broke out.

This fund invested in core hot stocks such as Pingmei Energy, Beijiang Communications Construction, and Huaxin Building Materials, but the result was that when the first main line diverged, this fund dumped the market and exited. "

"Compared to the market-making pattern, there is naturally no capital that can compare with Mr. Su from Huayi Capital." Zhao Zhiyuan said, "It's a pity that Mr. Su from Huayi Capital doesn't seem to do short-term trading now."

"It's better to have no pattern." Liang Jiucheng smiled and said, "Today, the 'Gusu system' hot money has already taken the lead. If they insist on locking their positions, we won't be able to get too many chips we want. It is precisely because this capital lacks a pattern in its operating style that we have the opportunity to get relatively low-cost chips in tomorrow's trading, and we can also form a good chip turnover for the main line of the 'new energy industry chain'."

"What Lao Liang said... is indeed true." Zhao Zhiyuan nodded and said with a smile, "Then we will execute the established strategy we discussed tomorrow."

Zhang Wei responded: "Of course, regardless of whether the bullish sentiment of the 'new energy industry chain' line can be further fermented tomorrow, with the chips in the entire 'big infrastructure' main line obviously loosening, the chips of the 'Greenland Group' stock must be sold to stop profit."

Regarding the stock of Greenland Group...

With several people continuing to lock their positions, they have made at least 15% profit.

Therefore, they took advantage of the fact that the main sentiment of "big infrastructure" had not yet completely receded to sell at a profit. Several people felt quite satisfied and had nothing to linger on.

Similarly, when the core main speculators of the 'Qilu Gang' were discussing subsequent trading plans and felt that the next market would most likely undergo a style switch and that 'oversold rebound' would become the core theme of the market performance in the next few days, at this moment, the main speculators of the 'Fushan Group' were in the group.

After carefully reading the disclosed data of the Dragon and Tiger List of the two cities, and reviewing the intraday market trends and the trends of individual stocks, Li Jinshi also proposed that the market will most likely go through a "high-low switch" of "oversold rebound" in the future. He said in the group: "Lao Chen, Lao Liao, I feel that this wave of divergence in the main line of "big infrastructure" is difficult to survive, and the market speculation style is about to change."

"Many stocks on the 'big infrastructure' line have already risen to the deep locked-in area." Chen Guiyun said, "At this position, divergent fluctuations should be a normal trend. Even if the core main line of 'big infrastructure' takes a violent platform fluctuation pattern in the next few days, or a week or two, it should be said that it is in line with the psychological expectations of most large funds in the market. Because from the perspective of the chip structure, at this position, a volatile adjustment is more conducive to the long-term trend development, as well as the fermentation of expectations and emotions, than a direct hard attack."

"I'm not talking about whether the volatile trend is normal or not," Li Jinshi said, "but the speculative opportunity of 'oversold rebound'."

"Why, Lao Li, do you want to participate?" Chen Guiyun asked.

Li Jinshi responded: "I am a little hesitant. I just don't know how long it will last. At the end of today's trading, the 'new energy industry chain' line did move a lot, but the volume was still a little bit lacking."

"From today's trend, it is obvious that the core funds inside and outside the market are still continuing to build positions and flow into the core stocks of the 'big infrastructure' main line." Liao Guoxiang said at this time, "and from the Dragon and Tiger List data released by the two markets after the market, we can also see that the core stocks related to the 'new energy industry chain' main line that moved abnormally at the end of today's trading were mainly attacked by some hot money active in the market, and there was basically no participation of institutional funds.

What does this show?

This shows that based on the logic of medium- and long-term expectations, it is still difficult for institutions to form a consensus expectation on the core theme of the "new energy industry chain."

There is no participation of institutional main funds, and no institution helps to lock the positions.

With the current market liquidity, I think it will be difficult for the main line of "new energy industry chain" to have a sustained rebound.

After all, regarding the "big infrastructure" line, although the chip structure of many concept stocks has loosened somewhat.

However, as long as the core leader does not collapse and the overall sentiment does not recede, there will always be funds that have not participated before and will continue to take over the corresponding stock chips.

In other words, under limited liquidity, the funds in the market will inevitably be dispersed.

This will inevitably result in the main line of the 'new energy industry chain' and other similar oversold main lines, and the incremental buying funds obtained will not form sustainability and coherence. "

"So, the rebound of the 'new energy industry chain' line should have very limited space, and the 'oversold rebound' line is unlikely to break out?" Hearing Liao Guoxiang's analysis, Li Jinshi was slightly stunned, and replied in an instant, "I said I would take the opportunity to participate and speculate for some profits, it seems that I thought too much..."

Liao Guoxiang responded: "It's not that we can't get out, but the space is extremely limited, and the market differentiation of related stocks in the entire line will be more serious."