Rebirth of the Capital Legend

According to the latest Dragon and Tiger List data disclosed by the two cities, we can see that whether it is the main sectors of oversold rebound such as new energy industry chain, Internet software, electronic information, film and television media, or the main sectors of "big infrastructure" such as real estate, building decoration, nonferrous metals, steel, coal, or the consumer electronics and security lens sectors that have achieved a certain market recognition and money-making effect in the late trading, there are hot money and institutional funds reducing their positions, and at the same time, there are institutions and hot money buying and going long.

Of course, judging from the overall net buying volume of funds for the listed stocks, in the two main directions of "oversold rebound" and "big infrastructure", the overall large funds are still in a state of reducing positions and outflows.

"The 'Gusu Group' hot money has completely liquidated and stopped profits on 'Duo-Fluoride', 'Tianci Materials', 'Penghui Energy' and other hot stocks in the 'new energy industry chain'." Seeing the latest Dragon and Tiger List data disclosed by the two cities, Zhao Zhiyuan, one of the main hot money groups of the 'Qilu Gang', laughed and said, "At the same time, this fund has also shown obvious signs of reducing its holdings in several core concept stocks in the Internet software, film and television media sectors. As expected... I said that the scale of this fund is limited, and it is this fund that is the one that crashed the market."

"Judging from the afternoon's market trend, it was expected that the 'Gusu system' funds would reduce their positions and leave the market," Zhang Wei said. "But I didn't expect that after the 'oversold rebound' line quickly receded, the funds would choose to speculate on the two branch sectors of 'consumer electronics' and 'security lenses'."

"Sure enough, it is very difficult to participate in an oversold rebound market like this without core underlying logic." Zhao Zhiyuan said, "The market lasted less than three days before it began to ebb. Fortunately, there were not many positions involved, otherwise there would be a high probability that I would not be able to withdraw safely."

"The space for an oversold rebound is limited," said Liang Jiucheng. "We shouldn't have had too high expectations for this line. However, the two branch sectors, 'consumer electronics' and 'security lenses', were able to come out in the late trading and form a long-term force for funds in the market. This was indeed a bit unexpected and obviously exceeded expectations. I feel that these two branch sectors can be expected to rise in the future."

"These two branch sectors should be led by institutions this afternoon, right?" Zhang Wei pondered for a moment and said, "And many of the popular core stocks in these two branch sectors are mostly favored by institutions. I'm afraid it's difficult to participate. I feel that the entire market is still in a chaotic period and there is no clear main upward direction. In this case, it is better to either participate in the market with a light position or to wait and see with an empty position."

Zhao Zhiyuan nodded and said, "Indeed, looking at the Dragon and Tiger List data disclosed by the two markets, the market's long and short divergence is indeed very serious. Even in the consumer electronics and security lens sectors that have made a certain profit at the end of today's trading, both institutions and hot money are buying and selling, and there is a lot of money doing T. This shows that in everyone's psychological expectations, the market trend is indeed in a chaotic stage. As for when this volatile trend can be broken and the direction of the breakthrough can be clarified, I estimate that it is likely that we will have to wait until the core theme of 'big infrastructure' is adjusted, so that it can absorb a lot of long funds in the market and form a consistent upward force."

In his opinion, whether everyone admits it or not, the "big infrastructure" line has become the focus of the market's bullish strategy.

If the core theme of "big infrastructure" does not improve, the market trend will not be able to emerge.

Then, naturally, it will be difficult for the entire market, including the broader market, to independently develop a trend.

After all, in the market trends of the past half month, the "big infrastructure" theme has played an absolute breakthrough role. It is also this core theme that has attracted a large amount of incremental off-market funds to enter the market. Moreover, looking at the entire market, it seems that only the "big infrastructure" core theme has a strong underlying logic and investment cost-effectiveness.

Of course, weighted defensive sectors such as liquor, white goods, medicine, consumption, and finance, which are dominated by many core institutions in the industry, can also drive the broader market.

However, these defensive mainline sectors have been severely clustered by institutional groups.

As a result, the rise of these defensive weighted sectors cannot be recognized by the most active part of the market's funds, that is, they cannot get the unanimous efforts of hot money and retail investors.

Without the joint efforts of hot money and retail investors, the overall bullish sentiment in the market cannot be effectively enhanced.

If the bullish sentiment cannot be effectively enhanced, there is naturally no way to attract more incremental off-market funds to enter the market and further push up the overall market valuation level and main market trends.

This has been verified in the past six months.

In the previous six months of market trends, institutions and the national team have been using the three main weighted sectors of medicine, consumption, and finance to stabilize the index, and try to gather the market's bullish sentiment to form a benign upward trend.

Unfortunately, no matter how the institutions promote, maintain the market and boost the index.

It is still difficult for hot money and retail investors to form a collective follow-up effect in these weighty main-line sectors.

However, when the core theme of "big infrastructure" was launched, the situation was completely different. In the market trend for more than half a month, the line of "big infrastructure" had strong underlying logic, sufficient future expectations, low stock prices, and clean internal chips. It completely won the unanimous recognition of various investors such as institutions, hot money, and retail investors, forming a complete long-term resonance and also condensing a sufficiently hot market money-making effect.

The outbreak of these money-making effects naturally attracted the entry of off-market funds to follow suit and speculate.

Therefore, no matter how investors in the market view it, in fact, the "big infrastructure" line has become the driving force of the entire market.

"I think so too," Zhang Wei said, "but I'm not sure when the 'big infrastructure' line will be adjusted and completed!"

Liang Jiucheng thought for a moment and said, "I estimate that this adjustment will not take too long, because in the core theme of 'big infrastructure', the leading stocks in the relevant industries and the hot stocks have not risen much in the past half month, compared with the previous halving and halving of the stock price.

Even if some stocks have risen by 50% in the short term, but in the long term.

Its stock price is still at a relative bottom position.

In other words, compared with the underlying logic and future expectations shown by the "big infrastructure" line, its stock price still has a lot of upward momentum that has not been revealed.

If not for the fact that many stocks in the main line of "big infrastructure" have risen to the core sedimentation area of ​​​​the historical trapped stocks.

If the overall market volume was not slightly insufficient, it would not be able to support the huge selling pressure of historical trapped shares in the entire "big infrastructure" main line area.

I estimate that the trend of the core theme of "big infrastructure" will not stop.

Of course, under the selling pressure of trapped shares, stopping to rest, consolidating the support platform, and reconsolidating the chip structure will naturally help the future "big infrastructure" market to go further.

Moreover, let’s look at the Dragon and Tiger List data of the “Big Infrastructure” main line during the adjustment period of the last two or three trading days.

We can find that in the entire adjustment trend of the "big infrastructure" main line, the institutional groups, as the main force of funds in the market, not only did not significantly reduce their positions following the decline in the market, but continued to increase their positions. Even in the main field of "big infrastructure", the core leading stocks with heavy weights such as Poly Real Estate, Conch Cement, Gemdale Group, Kewan Real Estate, China Construction, Shenhua Coal... basically did not fall, and maintained a strong sideways trend.

This shows that, on the one hand, the main institutional funds' holdings in the main area of ​​"big infrastructure" are not heavy enough.

On the other hand, it also shows that institutional main funds have strong confidence in the future market trend of the core theme of "big infrastructure", and feel that many core leading stocks on the "big infrastructure" line are still seriously undervalued and have great expected room for growth.

Since the core leading stocks still have a lot of expected room for growth that has not yet been revealed.

At the same time, the downside space for these leading stocks has been basically blocked due to the continued large-scale increase in holdings by institutions.

Then, naturally, the small and medium-cap concept stocks associated with its related sectors will not fall too much, and the downward space for its related stocks will also be very limited.

Since the stocks in the entire main line have limited room for decline.

So, that means the adjustment space is very limited. With limited space, the adjustment time will most likely be much shorter than everyone expected.”

"Hehe, Lao Liang's analysis is spot on." Zhao Zhiyuan laughed and said, "In that case, it seems that the two branch sectors of consumer electronics and security lenses are just a short-term transitional market speculation. It seems that there is really no need to participate."

Zhang Wei responded: "Originally, these two sub-sectors were transitional sectors, but the Apple conference in September is just around the corner. The 'consumer electronics' sector is still worth speculating on in terms of news and fundamental expectations. Otherwise, the market would not have formed a bullish force so easily."

"That's true." Liang Jiucheng nodded slightly, "It's just that the size of the sector is limited, and the number of long-term funds it can carry is also limited. This means that relying on the market speculation of these two branch sectors cannot drive the long-term sentiment of the entire market and the overall market index."

"After all..." Zhao Zhiyuan paused and said, "I think the 'big infrastructure' line is more stable, and the future expectations are stronger. Alas... I didn't make any money from this round of oversold rebound. I'll just move my position back to the 'big infrastructure' main line tomorrow."

"I will keep my position short anyway," Zhang Wei said. "I will wait until the 'big infrastructure' line reaches a new low and the core concept stocks completely stop falling and rebound."

"Refocus on the main line of 'big infrastructure', or go short," Liang Jiucheng said. "I estimate that the market trend in the next few days will be very repetitive. Although the market sentiment of 'oversold rebound' has collapsed a bit today, it is certain that there will be no consistent long force on the main line of 'big infrastructure' in the future, and when the main lines in other directions cannot drive the overall market index, there will still be funds to try to pull this line again."

As several people discussed, there were still serious differences in market news and sentiment.

In major stock discussion forums across the country, there are many people who are bearish and bullish, and each of the main market lines that have previously produced money-making effects has many supporters.

And amidst this deep emotional divide...

In the evening, the U.S. stock market also experienced many twists and turns, forming a volatile pattern in a narrow space.

Since there was no obvious direction choice in the external market at night, and there was no obvious major positive or negative impact on the entire news front.

This led to even more chaotic pre-market sentiment the next day, and more serious differences in long and short positions.

Therefore, when the market opened for trading again on August 8, after ten minutes of call auction, the main direction of active funds in the market was still in chaos.

There are those who try out the popular concept stocks of the main line of "big infrastructure".

There were attempts to make an 'oversold rebound' line, with sentiment improving, funds flowing back and the market rebounding.

There were also those who continued the market trend at the end of yesterday's trading and significantly increased their positions in the two major branch sectors, 'consumer electronics' and 'security lenses'.

On the whole, all the main lines of the market are in a state of shock, with no obvious direction choice.

Even the index showed a flat opening trend.

"This opening... why do I feel that no matter which line it is, it is difficult to form a joint force of funds and it is difficult to get out of the market." Noticing the opening situation of the two markets, at this time, in the Magic City, Huarui Fund Management Company, the 'Huarui Performance Growth No. 1' main fund product trading room, the trading team leader Jia Yongxiang was very helpless. He smiled and turned his head to the fund manager Song Shaopu beside him and said, "Mr. Song, the market is still uncertain about the direction it chooses. We... don't need to rush to increase our positions or adjust our trading strategies, right?"

Song Shaopu pondered for a moment and responded: "At present, the market trend is indeed unclear. Let's observe and see. The various funds in the market seem to be a bit confused at the moment."

"Yeah." Jia Yongxiang nodded and said, "The only thing that has some synergy is the 'consumer electronics' line, but this line... is basically in the same position as the core weighted stocks of the 'big infrastructure' main line. Even if the funds continue to move upward, it seems difficult to open up much space in the short term. It is better to wait until the adjustment of the 'big infrastructure' main line is over and the funds flow back to the long position."

"Let's see the movements of these active funds in the market after the market opens." Song Shaopu continued.

He couldn't see the current market situation clearly and could only continue to wait.

With the brief exchange between the two, the 5-minute trading suspension passed quickly, and at 9:30, the market ushered in formal continuous bidding transactions.

As the two markets fluctuated rapidly, the market conditions were also constantly changing.

At 9:31, the two branch sectors of 'consumer electronics' and 'security lenses', which performed well at the end of yesterday's trading, and their related concept stocks and core weighted stocks, continued to rise by inertia.

At 9:32, the 'oversold rebound' line fell back under continued selling pressure. At the same time, the ChiNext Index also fell from a flat opening.

At 9:33, the main line of "big infrastructure" also began to move from a flat opening state to a continued adjustment trend, and related stocks fluctuated downward.

"It seems that the market will continue the trend of yesterday's closing." After observing for three minutes, Song Shaopu smiled and said, "That's good. Consumer electronics and security lenses are the two major sectors that will take over the short-term market trend, which is better than blindly speculating in the oversold main sectors such as film and television media, Internet software, electronic information, and new energy industry chains."