Rebirth of the Capital Legend

"It's strange. With today's market trend, the main line of 'big infrastructure' fell so much in the afternoon, but in the after-hours Dragon and Tiger List data, institutions and hot money in the circle are still increasing their positions." After seeing the Dragon and Tiger List data disclosed by the two markets, Li Jinshi, one of the main hot money groups of the 'Fushan system', said with surprise, "I really didn't expect... the main pressure for selling during the day actually came from retail investors."

"That's not surprising." Chen Guiyun took over and said, "The market volume is insufficient, and institutions and hot money in the circle are relatively conservative in taking over the market. The core theme of 'big infrastructure' is currently in a range where the previous historical locked-in shares are concentrated. Therefore, it is completely understandable that the selling pressure is more serious, and this trend... I don't think there is anything wrong with it."

"Old Chen is right." Liao Guoxiang observed the buying and selling data of the Dragon and Tiger List of the two cities and said, "Although the market trend this afternoon was a severe fall after a high rise, the chip structure of the entire 'big infrastructure' main line has been adjusted more fully. At present, the overall market volume is limited, and the enthusiasm of incremental funds entering the market is not very high. Under the condition that the trading volume in the market cannot be quickly expanded, it is impossible for the 'big infrastructure' line to complete an effective breakthrough trend when the internal chip structure has not been fully adjusted and many floating chips have not been completely settled."

"It seems that the market is still in a range of shock adjustment." Li Jinshi heard the two people's analysis, paused, and said, "If that's the case... then we have to lower our expectations."

"In fact, there is nothing wrong with the market going this way." Chen Guiyun said, "If we force a breakthrough rashly, the foundation will not be solid, and the space will be very limited. Now that the structure of chips continues to fluctuate and consolidate, the current fluctuation range platform will form a relatively firm support platform.

In this way, when the core theme of "big infrastructure" truly breaks upward, it will open up new room for growth and gather stronger upward momentum.

As long as the underlying investment logic of the core theme of "big infrastructure" continues to strengthen.

As long as the domestic real estate market is still in a hot situation.

So, there will be no follow-up market for the "big infrastructure" line. No matter how this core line moves in the short term, I think it will not affect the conclusion that this core line is the strongest line in the second half of the market, and that it is the target of concentrated speculation by various major capital groups. "

"You are right," Liao Guoxiang responded. "As long as the market's expectations for the core theme of 'big infrastructure' and the future of many core leading stocks in this core theme continue to increase, the share prices of these stocks will sooner or later meet expectations and undergo valuation and market recovery."

"So, should we continue to focus on 'big infrastructure'?" Li Jinshi asked.

Liao Guoxiang nodded and said, "That's for sure. Looking at the entire market at present, regardless of the strength of the intraday trend, compared with other core themes in the market, the money-making effect of the core theme of 'big infrastructure' is always the strongest. Since it is obvious that the 'big infrastructure' line is the main long funds active in the entire market, and there are many institutional main funds gathered in the field, then naturally we should embrace this core theme to trade. Only by operating around the core theme of the market can the winning rate be higher and the probability of making money will be greater."

"I agree." Chen Guiyun said, "And looking at the market trend today, in the main line of 'big infrastructure', the speculation of funds on core leading stocks has not receded. Although the intraday trends of Gemdale Group and Oriental Yuhong were more tangled, they finally successfully closed the daily limit, which gave a relatively good feedback to the subsequent speculation of other leading stocks."

"Gemdale Group and Oriental Yuhong's stocks today are indeed very strong," said Li Jinshi. "And looking at the data of the top-ranked stocks of the two stocks, the two stocks are dominated by the funds of the 'Gusu Group' and the 'Qilu Gang', which have been relatively active in the market recently."

"These two funds have been quite active recently," said Liao Guoxiang. "Looking at the intentions of these two funds, we can still see that there are a number of active large funds in the market. They are still relatively optimistic about the subsequent market trend of the core theme of 'big infrastructure'."

"Although the structure of the 'Gusu system' funds is not very good, they are indeed quite strong in stock selection aesthetics." Chen Guiyun said, "I just took a close look at the fundamentals of the 'Oriental Yuhong' stock and its overall valuation. I feel that if the subsequent market trends continue to gather in the direction of blue-chip weighted stocks and white horse performance stocks, this stock may become the leader of speculation by various hot money in the market. After all, the fundamentals of this stock are not bad, and the current institutional group within this stock is not serious. This shows that the institutional capital group has not yet completely controlled this stock, and hot money has the advantage of dominating the stock price. In addition... the overall market value and number of outstanding shares of Oriental Yuhong stock are also more suitable for speculation by various funds, and the current stock price position is also low enough."

"Old Chen, are you interested in this check?" Li Jinshi laughed.

Chen Guiyun responded: "I do think this check is good. At least from the perspective of various hype factors, it is stronger than the check from 'Golden Land Group'."

"The main problem with the Gemdale Group check is that the market is a little bit bigger," said Liao Guoxiang. "Also, the internal chip structure of the Gemdale Group check has some problems, and the capital composition is a bit mixed. At the current stock price stage, the internal holding institutions have not made much profit, so they will not dump the market. However, if the subsequent stock price is quickly pushed up, the risk of the institutions dumping the market and affecting the trend will be great. On the other hand, the Oriental Yuhong check does not have this risk, and the chips are relatively cleaner. If you have to choose between these two stocks, then the Oriental Yuhong check obviously has more hype potential.

However, we have no first move on these two stocks.

At present, the main trend of "big infrastructure" has not broken away from the oscillating pattern and has not formed a substantial breakthrough trend.

In terms of following the trend in the short term, I think there is no need to chase high prices and buy shares.

Wait until the sentiment drops tomorrow, and the funds chasing highs today will cut losses. There may be opportunities to buy at a low price, and it would be better to intervene in the market and pick up some chips at a loss at that time. "

"That's right." Chen Guiyun nodded slightly. "If the core main line has not formed a breakthrough pattern, then there is no need to worry. What's more, the overall market situation is still in a bear market. Don't chase high prices in a bear market. That is an iron rule in trading rules. Moreover, for blue chip stocks with a market value of 20 to 30 billion, generally speaking, even if there is a situation of speculation by various funds, they are mostly trending. They will not go up directly in a wave of consecutive boards like small and medium-sized concept stocks. So... if we want to buy later, there will definitely be no shortage of opportunities to intervene."

"What about the concept stocks that were hotly speculated in the early stage, such as Shenhuo Shares, Pingmei Energy, Tianshan Cement, Beijiang Communications Construction, Capital Group, Chongqing Development, Bayi Steel, Linggang Shares, etc.?" Li Jinshi asked, "Do they still have investment value and speculation value?"

Chen Guiyun responded: "I think it is better not to invest in these stocks. Previously, during the first wave of the short squeeze of the main line of 'big infrastructure', these stocks were pushed up by hot money and retail investors with a continuous board trend, forming a short-term surge of 50%, or even almost doubling. At that time, the investment style and speculation style of the market were relatively chaotic. Various follow-up funds did not discriminate against small and medium-sized concept stocks in concept speculation. At that time, everyone even thought that the market would reproduce the craze of concept speculation, and there would be a style switch, and a market trend style in which large tickets would set the stage and small tickets would perform.

However, in the end, this market trend style did not come out at all.

Not only did the market fail to form a market pattern in which big tickets set the stage and small tickets played the leading role, but the phenomenon of heavyweight blue-chip stocks and white horse performance stocks banding together was further demonstrated.

Nowadays, not only are institutions withdrawing from small and medium-sized concept stocks with insufficient liquidity.

Even the many active hot money in the circle and the countless retail investors who follow the trend are continuing to withdraw from small and medium-sized concept stocks.

This will lead to the subsequent market development...

The liquidity of funds in the market will increasingly tilt towards blue-chip weighted stocks and white horse performance stocks.

At the same time, under the continued influence of the losing money effect and the making money effect, the market investment and speculative style expectations that favor big funds over small funds will become more and more consistent.

That is to say, through market trends and capital flows.

We can basically judge that the current market has formed a relatively consistent investment trend.

In this case, it will be difficult to attract other major funds to intervene and get unanimous support from emotions if you continue to invest in small and medium-sized concept stocks.

Since it is impossible to get the recognition of other follow-up funds and the unanimous support of emotions.

Then, naturally, the market will not be able to be boosted.

Therefore, I am not optimistic about the subsequent trends of these early small and medium-cap concept stocks, such as 'Shenhuo Group', 'Pingmei Energy', 'Tianshan Cement', 'Beijiang Communications Construction', 'Capital Group', 'Yu Development', 'Bayi Steel', 'Linggang Group', etc. In fact, look at the performance of the main line of 'big infrastructure' in the past two days.

Whether it is an adjustment trend or an upward trend.

On the market, those with the strongest initiative are always some core leaders within the sector, as well as blue-chip stocks with good performance expectations and better fundamentals.

However, most of these small and medium-sized concept stocks, such as 'Shenhuo Group', 'Pingmei Energy', 'Tianshan Cement', 'Beijiang Communications Construction', 'Capital Group', 'Yu Development', 'Bayi Steel', 'Linggang Group', etc., passively followed the rise and had no initiative at all.

What's more, these are the small-cap concept stocks of "big infrastructure" that were hyped up in the early stage.

The internal chip structure is not good at this time, and the trapped shares and short-term profit-taking shares have not been cleared out. The pressure to rise is no less than that of mid-to-large-cap core stocks such as Oriental Yuhong and Gemdale Group.

So, my advice is...

If we still want to focus on the core theme of "big infrastructure", then we still have to follow the direction of the main capital flow in the market, follow the trend, and take the initiative to attack the market trend. The white horse leaders that the market has already selected are better. As for the weighted core leaders and small-cap concept stocks, one has a too large market, too many funds, and the trend will not be too smooth, and there is insufficient room for flexibility. The other lacks the attention of the main funds, the fundamentals are too poor, and the expectations of funds are not high, so it is difficult to obtain the unanimous long-term recognition of large funds. "

"I completely agree with Lao Chen's analysis." Liao Guoxiang said, "It is true that the current investment and speculation trends in the market have completely changed compared to before. We must respect market trends and trend changes. At this time, if we continue to speculate on small-cap concept stocks, even if the concepts of the corresponding stocks are very good and closely follow the core market trend, it is highly likely that we will not get good return feedback. As I said before... we should just do what the most active part of the market funds do."

"Okay." Li Jinshi nodded. "You two are more perceptive than me in judging the market. I was thinking that the sentiment of the 'big infrastructure' line would pick up, and I was going to do 'Shenhuo Co., Ltd.', 'Pingmei Energy', 'Tianshan Cement', 'Beijiang Communications Construction', 'Capital Group', 'Yu Development', 'Bayi Steel', 'Linggang Co., Ltd.'... I expected the second wave of speculation in these stocks, but I didn't expect..."

Chen Guiyun said: "In a bear market, the expectations of a second wave of stocks that have been hyped in the short term are actually relatively low. Even if the market is speculative and still on small and medium-cap concept stocks, I do not recommend investing in stocks such as Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Pingmei Energy Co., Ltd., Tianshan Cement Co., Ltd., Beijiang Communications Construction Co., Ltd., Beijing Capital Group Co., Ltd., Chongqing Development Co., Ltd., Bayi Steel Co., Ltd., and Linggang Co., Ltd., which are expected to have a second wave of market."

"Indeed." Liao Guoxiang responded, "The market always loves new things and dislikes old things. In fact, if you carefully observe the core theme of 'big infrastructure', apart from a few core leading stocks that are heavily supported by institutions, every time the trend of the 'big infrastructure' line changes, the so-called short-term sentiment leaders that are hyped by the main hot money in the market are different. From the initial 'Huaguo Zhongye' to 'Greenland Group', and now to 'Gemdale Group' and 'Oriental Yuhong'... basically, they choose mid-cap blue chip stocks with relatively good chip structure, relatively clean internal chips, and relatively low positions to create new sentiment leaders, and they will definitely not do the second wave of hype of the previous leader."

"That's true." After being reminded by Liao Guoxiang, Li Jinshi also realized this point instantly and said, "This should be said... It is also a manifestation of insufficient market liquidity."

"That's right." Liao Guoxiang said, "It's because the market liquidity is relatively insufficient, and the active buying volume can't support the market of too many mid-cap stocks. Therefore, after short-term speculation, the chip structure becomes relatively scattered, which is not conducive to the re-formation of long-term synergy. The leading stocks in the early stage will be abandoned by funds in an instant.

Of course, due to the core weight leaders of various industry sectors under the core theme of "big infrastructure".

There are only a few.

Therefore, the trend of the core leading stocks will not be restricted by this factor. After all, the market-making ideas of institutions are different from those of us hot money, and the short-term trading thinking of the market is completely different from the long-term investment thinking and cannot be compared. "