Rebirth of the Capital Legend
Chapter 460 Constraints of market volume conditions!
"The lack of active buying is indeed a constraint on the continued upward trend of the market." Brother Chen nodded slightly after hearing what Old Wu said, and said, "But as long as the market is not focused on one or two core main lines, but shows a rotation of multiple main lines rising, and the profit effect of individual stocks rises one after another, in fact, if the volume performance is a little worse, the market space can also be created. After all, at this position, after two consecutive days of violent wash-out trends, there is not much floating selling pressure, and a rebound with reduced volume can also be formed."
"I agree with Brother Chen's opinion." Xu Qiao said, "At this position, I think it's fine to continue to increase or decrease the volume. If the volume continues to increase, it means that there is further exchange of chips and the entry of incremental funds from the outside. If the volume decreases... it can also mean that after the violent market cleansing in the past two days, the reduction of chips in the market is relatively good, right?"
"In fact, as long as the bullish sentiment in the market can be maintained, I think the volume will be released sooner or later." Lao Zhang also said at this time, "In the past two days, there was such a violent shock trend, and two large-volume golden needles tested the bottom. It doesn't make sense that the index has just rebounded for half a day and it has gone back again.
And looking at the K-line trend of the index, there is no reason for it to fall.
What's more, at present, whether it is the news, policy, external market trends, fundamental conditions... they should all be getting better.
In this case, what logic and reason is there to be bearish?
Anyway, I think this will be the starting point of a rebound, not the end point of the rebound.
The trend of the 'big infrastructure' line this morning was actually very strong. 'Oriental Yuhong' hit the daily limit, 'Gemdale Group' rose more than 6% in the morning, and a large number of stocks including 'Capital Group', 'Financial Street', 'Huaxin Building Materials', 'Tianshan Cement', etc. hit the daily limit.
Although the index increase does not seem large, the profit effect of individual stocks in the market is still very strong.
The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.75%.
But if you look at the small and medium-sized stocks in the market, the average increase in the morning was already more than 3 points, far exceeding the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index.
This shows that the market's bullish sentiment has indeed been increasing rapidly and has exploded.
Of course, it is normal that defensive main-line sectors such as liquor, white goods, medicine, consumption, finance, and electricity performed poorly.
There is no reason for these defensive mainline sectors.
When the market falls, the decline is less, or in other words, it enjoys the treatment of rising against the trend.
After the market completes its adjustment and enters the rebound cycle, it can continue to rise sharply and outperform the market index.
Moreover, I have always felt that the current rebound trend is a sign of a healthy market trend. The previous situation in which nearly 1700 stocks in the two markets fell for a long time and only a few hundred stocks rose was abnormal. "
"But in terms of the overall investment style of funds and the preference for active buying..." Old Wu took over and said, "It can be seen that the main fund groups in the market still prefer large-cap stocks. Although the rebound trend of many small- and medium-cap concept stocks seems stronger than the index trend, there is generally not much volume. Basically, they are all a rapid rebound with reduced volume after a serious oversell, waiting for the chips to enter the vacuum stage.
This kind of rapid rebound trend with shrinking volume will most likely fall back to the starting point soon.
If you exclude the trading volume of individual stocks with a market value of more than 200 billion, you can see that the trading volume of small and medium-sized stocks has not increased compared with yesterday and the day before, but has shrunk seriously.
This shows that the market's investment style has not changed.
It also shows that the general rebound trend of small-cap concept stocks in the market is not sustainable at all.”
"Old Wu is right about this." Brother Chen observed the general trend of small-cap stocks in the market, as well as the performance of volume, and said, "The direction of the main capital groups in the market is indeed still concentrated on the core main lines, a number of blue-chip stocks with heavyweights, and industry-leading performance stocks.
This is what I just said...
Even if you participate in the rebound, you cannot buy stocks in the two main lines of Internet software and film and television media, as well as some small and medium-cap pure concept stocks in the market.
However, the trend of small and medium-cap concept stocks was a rebound without volume.
However, in the market, many high-quality blue-chip stocks with high weights, especially industry-leading stocks that focus on the main line, are driven by substantial expectations and have high-quality performance stocks with expectations of future performance explosion. There is indeed continuous buying intervention, and the central support position of the stock price has been rising.
The trend of small and medium-cap concept stocks is relatively not optimistic.
It cannot change the expected improvement in the ecological trends of blue-chip and white horse stocks and the actual investment opportunities that emerge.
In short, the current market trends, sentiment performance, and even expectations should be much better than the previous two days and the previous adjustment phase.
The overall chip structure in the venue is also obviously much better.
In this situation, although we cannot be too optimistic, we certainly cannot be too pessimistic either."
"Brother Chen is right." Xu Qiao said with a smile, "As long as you don't buy small and medium-sized pure concept stocks, don't participate in related stocks with unlimited rebounds, and focus on the main line, the risks are still completely controllable. At least I think... Brother Su's massive increase in holdings of the 'big infrastructure' main line of performance blue-chip stocks at this time is definitely not a sudden whim. It must have been after sufficient careful consideration before using the seats to stimulate market sentiment."
"There is no problem with going long." Lao Zhang smiled and responded, "But Lao Wu is right to remind me. This morning... Actually, the trend of the 'big infrastructure' line still has some problems in the feedback of the intraday trend. After yesterday's close, there were such strong emotional expectations and so many positive factors. Logically speaking, after the market opened today, the 'big infrastructure' line should not have the sell-off trend in the early trading session. It should have opened high and broken through directly."
"It's unreasonable to break through upwards without killing a wave of profit-taking in the early trading, isn't it?" Xu Qiao disagreed with this view, saying, "If the emotional expectations are too consistent, you have to kill a wave of profit-taking first, and then continue to create space after sufficient turnover. Otherwise, if you go straight up, the active buyers will hesitate for a moment and will not be able to withstand the selling pressure of the profit-taking. Once they can't withstand it... the core theme of 'big infrastructure' cannot get out of the strong money-making effect and market trend, then the entire rebound trend of the market will most likely be gone.
After all, no matter what, it doesn’t matter whether many capital groups on and off the market admit it or not.
The line of "big infrastructure" is currently the focus of the entire market trend.
Only when the core theme of "big infrastructure" moves well, other main and branch sectors of the market will have a chance to come out, and the overall bullish sentiment of the market can be quickly gathered.
If the 'big infrastructure' line opens high and moves higher in the morning, and then is hit by concentrated profit-taking and falls completely, the buying in the market will not be able to sustain it.
I believe today's market trend will be even worse.
As for the current trend, I think it is the best trend. The only shortcoming is the problem of volume.
It's a matter of scalability, and there's nothing we can do about it.
After all, the market is currently in a bear market, and the hot money in the macro market has been siphoned away by the hot offline real estate.
At this stage, not too much funds will flow into the stock market.
In addition, as the most core and main institution in the field, the 'national team' does not have more funds to invest at this time.
Now, we can only rely on the self-regulation of the market.
There is also the help of a little incremental capital that can be attracted during the changes in emotional cycles.
In other words, regardless of the rise or fall of the short-term market, the market basically follows the path of stock game.
Since we are on the path of stock game, it is impossible to take care of all the main sectors and all stocks in the market. We can only focus on the core main line and the rotation of the main sectors of various industries. "
"Well, Xiao Xu's analysis makes sense." Brother Chen nodded with a smile, paused, and continued, "The market trend should not be able to develop into an incremental market for a long time, and can only maintain a stock game. In a stock game market, if the main line market wants to come out, it will inevitably siphon off the capital groups in other main line sectors. This is also the fundamental reason why the market can only rotate the main line market and cannot take the path of sustained and general rebound.
It is also a major reason why the rebound trend of small and medium-sized concept stocks cannot continue.
Therefore, there is no big problem with the current trend.
There is also the "big infrastructure" line. Although the overall trend seems to be rather confusing on the market, this is due to the insufficient incremental funds in the entire market. At the same time, the small and medium-sized concept stocks today have diverted a lot of short-term speculation and follow-up buying. This is an important reason.
Really consider it from the logical, fundamental and emotional aspects.
There is no doubt that the "big infrastructure" line will eventually be achieved.
Judging from the current node, there is no problem in continuing to increase positions in the "big infrastructure" line.
Of course, emotional fluctuations and shocks in trends are inevitable. After all, the market is not a bull market now. Whether it is the rise of the main market or the rise of individual stocks, it is impossible to achieve overnight.
Please...collect 6...9...books...!
This is the time to be more patient.
We must be patient and dare to buy when the price drops and sell when the price rises. We must not lose our positions, but we must not be too aggressive and lose our initiative. "
"Haha... Brother Chen's last sentence is the essence." Lao Zhang laughed and said, "Indeed, I am not pessimistic, but I am not overly optimistic either. I follow the market and do not make subjective assumptions about market trends."
"In addition to the 'big infrastructure' line..." Xu Qiao thought for a moment and said, "Consumer electronics, security lenses, petrochemicals, these main sectors that performed strongly today, there should be a lot of opportunities, right?"
Brother Chen nodded and said, "There are speculative opportunities, but in terms of certainty and stability, it is definitely not as good as the 'big infrastructure' line."
"The consumer electronics line..." Old Wu thought for a moment and said, "It should be said that there should be expectations before the Apple conference in September, and the related hype targets should be more concentrated in the 'Apple industry chain' sector. The target selection is also easy to grasp. I think the certainty of opportunities in this line should be OK, and the current flexibility should be higher than that of the 'big infrastructure' line."
"I agree." Xu Qiao said, "For the consumer electronics sector, the market consensus expectations are not as strong as for the 'big infrastructure' sector. On the contrary, I think there is a certain expectation gap for this sector. In addition, the stocks in the 'Apple industry chain' do have good fundamentals and have room for future performance explosion."
Accompanied by the discussion among several core members of the main hot money group of 'Magic City Super Short Gang'.
At this moment, on the online stock investment exchange forum, a group of retail investors are also having a heated discussion about the market trends in the morning.
"For the core theme of 'big infrastructure', more than 15 stocks have hit their daily limit this morning, which is indeed strong."
"We are firmly optimistic about the market trend of 'big infrastructure'."
"It's never wrong to follow Mr. Su's direction in building positions. Unfortunately, I placed an order for the Oriental Yuhong check during the call auction, and it hasn't been traded yet."
"I definitely can't buy this check for 'Oriental Yuhong' today."
"Buy the check for 'Golden Land Group'. Previously, this check moved almost synchronously with the check for 'Oriental Yuhong'. It seems that the two checks are linked."
"Isn't the circulating volume of 'Gemdale Group' too large? I feel like the funds can't pull it."
"In the current market, don't major funds prefer large-cap stocks? I think a large circulating stock is not a problem at all, right?"
"Today's overall market trend is indeed very good, but what should I do if I chased the highs this morning?"
"It doesn't matter. Judging from the K-line pattern of the market index, it has just started to rebound. At this point, no matter where you buy it during the trading session, it can't be considered chasing highs."
"I agree, but the trends of individual stocks are still quite different."
"That's for sure. The strong will always be strong. The trend of leading stocks is definitely stronger than that of miscellaneous stocks."
"I think we should still focus on the leading stocks. If we buy some miscellaneous stocks, they will not outperform the overall market index."
"The key is that the leading stocks are not easy to buy. Basically, there has been no adjustment and they are all at high levels. For example, Poly Real Estate, Kewan Real Estate, Conch Cement, Huaxin Building Materials... these core leading stocks have not fallen much during the market adjustment period. Many stocks even hit new highs today. How can I buy them?"
"That's the truth. The leading stocks can't be chased up, and the miscellaneous stocks can't outperform the market at all."
“Alas, it feels like the market sentiment has warmed up, and it’s quite difficult to do.”
“It’s better to fail to outperform the market than to lose money.”
"That's right. I feel like the market will... stabilize and rebound for a few days this time."
“In the short term, it won’t fall back, right?”
Amid the discussions among a group of retail investors, one can clearly feel that the market's bullish sentiment is still warming up, and the investment confidence of the retail investors in the market is also constantly increasing.
In this market, the overall bullish sentiment continues to improve.
The willingness to go long among hot money, retail investors and institutional investors is still relatively strong.
After an hour and a half of emotional brewing at noon, when 1 o'clock in the afternoon arrived, the two markets once again ushered in the market's continuous bidding and formal trading.
Only the main theme of "big infrastructure" is seen as the focus of many investor groups.
In the morning's trend, the consumer electronics, security lens, and petrochemical sectors continued to maintain their strong position.
The moment the two markets opened, they once again welcomed a large number of follow-up long funds to rush to buy. The core leading stocks in the relevant sectors, as well as the concept leading stocks with leading patterns and high elasticity, all of their share prices showed a straight upward trend in an instant.
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