Rebirth of the Capital Legend

Whether it is Oriental Yuhong, Gemdale Group and Huaxin Building Materials, the three popular core stocks that Fuxing Road clearly holds, or other popular concept stocks that are of high concern to other market investor groups and have a certain degree of recognition, such as Shenhuo Shares, Pingmei Energy, Tianshan Cement, Beijiang Communications Construction, Shouchuang Group, Chongqing Development, Bayi Steel, Linggang Shares and other popular concept stocks.

Its trend was supported by a large number of active major buying funds in the market at the moment of opening.

9:31, just one minute.

The share price of "Oriental Yuhong" soared to 5%. At the same time, the share prices of "Golden Land Group" and "Huaxin Building Materials" also soared to more than 3.5%.

And a number of industry sectors related to the entire "big infrastructure" theme.

The real estate sector quickly rose to 1.5%, and the growth rates of the construction decoration and building materials sectors also instantly rose to more than 1%.

Even the steel, coal and nonferrous metals sectors have seen relatively poor growth.

At this moment, the sector index has jumped to the forefront of the two cities' industry sector indices.

On the whole, almost all active buying orders in the entire market are concentrated in the main area of ​​​​"big infrastructure". For other market main lines, except for the liquor, white appliances, medicine, and consumption main lines where heavyweight stocks are concentrated, there are slightly some active buying orders, and the rest are relatively weak.

"The market's buying is still mainly concentrated in the main line of 'big infrastructure'." Noting the changes in the buying pattern during the fierce trading at the beginning of the session, Huang Qingyun, the trading team leader of the 'Shino Future No. 1' main fund product trading room inside Sino Private Equity Fund Company in Shanghai, said with emotion, "Other main lines of the market have basically no profit effect, and the active buying liquidity of other main lines seems to be siphoned by the 'big infrastructure' line."

"There's nothing we can do about it." Hearing Huang Qingyun's sigh, Men Xingtao, the main fund product manager of 'Sino Future No. 1', responded, "The current market sentiment and emotions are basically all on the line of 'big infrastructure'. Before the expectations and emotions of this line are fulfilled and the market trend is not over, it is difficult for other main lines in the market to get concentrated active buying attention. In addition, there is a situation in the market where a core main line siphons the liquidity of other main lines, which also shows that the current market is still a stock game and has not moved out of the incremental game.

However, this is also expected.

After all, only a few trading days have passed since last week's two consecutive golden needle bottoming trends.

As the market trend continues to fluctuate violently and there are variables, the group of investors waiting on the sidelines will not be attracted so easily."

"Mr. Men's meaning is..." Huang Qingyun said, "Is the current market trend normal?"

"It must be normal." Men Xingtao said, "and looking at the volume, it seems to be developing in a good direction. In the first few minutes of trading, compared with the trend of last Friday, the volume has obviously shrunk, and the consistency of the market has become much stronger under the condition of shrinking volume. Whether it is the three most core popular stocks, 'Golden Land Group', 'Huaxin Building Materials', and 'Oriental Yuhong', or other stocks in the main field of 'big infrastructure', the trend is relatively smooth, showing an overall trend of shrinking volume and rising.

This shows that after the weekend's emotional brewing and the weak-to-strong opening of the call auction.

Many investors who hold the chips of the main "big infrastructure" stocks in the market have already had the idea of ​​locking up their positions.

But apart from the "big infrastructure" line...

The other main market trends are still not optimistic.

Especially in film and television media, Internet software, electronic information... these related industry sectors that tend to be based on the "technology" main line, many stocks have not really stopped falling, and today the "big infrastructure" main line has risen as a whole, the internal chip structure has become more settled, and the trend and expectations are relatively consistent.

There are actually a lot of stocks within these industry sectors after a brief few minutes of trading at the beginning of the trading session.

It also showed a trend of large-scale decline.

With the market trending in such a polarized pattern, it is probably difficult to achieve a general rise like last Thursday. It is estimated that today's market index will most likely be in a weak and volatile pattern with shrinking volume.

With the support of the money-making effect of the core theme of "big infrastructure", the index will not fall too much.

But at the same time, the main sectors that tend to be "technology", such as "film and television media", "Internet software", "electronic information", "new energy industry chain", etc., continue to lag behind, affecting the overall bullish sentiment.

A lot of funds in the market tend to adopt a cautious trading approach.

Even if the index wants to rise, it can't go much higher.

However, at this position, it is not a bad idea to continue to fluctuate and accumulate momentum, further allowing the chips to settle and quickly reduce the selling pressure of subsequent rises. "

"I also feel that the major indexes in the market are still a little short of forming a complete trend breakthrough." Huang Qingyun took over and said, "A single flower does not make spring, but a hundred flowers in full bloom make the garden full of spring. I feel that if the market's long-term funds group has been focusing on the "big infrastructure" line, lacking the rotation and high-low switching of the main line market, it will be difficult to truly achieve sustainability and high market space.

This trend is purely driven by the main line of "big infrastructure".

Once there is a problem with the emotional feedback in the main area of ​​'big infrastructure', negative feedback will be formed.

Then, the market could easily crash.”

"What can we do about it?" Menxingtao smiled helplessly and said, "The market trend is changing like this, and the sentiment feedback is like this. We can only respect the market trend change and follow the market changes."

"That's true." Huang Qingyun said, "After all, our organization is not a major institution like Huayi Capital that can influence the market's sentiment and trend changes. By the way, I wonder how many positions Mr. Su from Huayi Capital has deployed in the "big infrastructure" line? It seems that this group of funds is really ruthless. They have been buying quietly recently, and I haven't seen them sell their chips."

"Mr. Su of Huayi Capital has a completely different way of thinking now than before," said Men Xingtao. "Looking at his operations in recent months, it is obvious that this group of funds has turned to medium- and long-term holdings. However, this is understandable. Under the current market liquidity, it is difficult for large-scale funds to enter and exit without medium- and long-term investment, and it is difficult to make profits in the short-term ecosystem."

"I'm not saying that there's anything wrong with Mr. Su's way of thinking..." Huang Qingyun said, "I just think that Mr. Su seems to be a little too optimistic about the market of 'big infrastructure'. In fact, from the perspective of the macro-industry background, my country's current urbanization rate has reached about 65%.

Going further up, even if compared with the urbanization rate of developed countries abroad, there is still room for improvement of about 15% at most.

It is difficult to say how much scale this space potential will bring to the demand of the entire infrastructure market.

I also feel that there is something wrong with the underlying logic of this round of property market boom, especially in the past two or three months, when housing prices in various places have started to rise, which I find very abnormal.”

"What's wrong?" said Meng Xingtao. "Prices have been suppressed by policies before. Now... it can be regarded as restoring previous expectations."

"But I feel that the property market is somewhat similar to the stock market." Huang Qingyun said, "After the continuous outbreak, it is really unknown how long the market can continue."

"According to the most cautious current expectations, the bull market in the real estate market will continue into next year, at least without any problems, right?" said Men Xingtao. "That is, next year, the subsequent housing prices in various places will not change much. The current average housing prices in various places, the main line of 'big infrastructure', the core hot stocks related to it, and the fundamentals of many industries will definitely show a significant reversal, right?

For many industry-leading stocks, their performance next year is expected to explode, which is basically a foregone conclusion, right?

Furthermore, compare the increase in housing prices in the offline real estate market.

With the current main theme of "big infrastructure", the valuations of many industry-leading stocks are considered to be extremely underestimated, right?

Should this extremely underestimated expectation be corrected?

As expectations for subsequent performance explosions increase, and after the performance really explodes, should its valuation be adjusted upward? Even if the valuation remains unchanged, or is further suppressed, its stock price should have a significant increase, right? Compared with the increase in house prices in the offline real estate market, the stock prices of the leading stocks in the main line of "big infrastructure" have doubled from the bottom, right?

Now, in general, the main trend of "big infrastructure" has come up from the bottom, and with the extremely pessimistic expectations of a bear market, the general increase is only in the range of 20% to 30%, right?

Can this general range of increases be considered a valuation repair?

I think it definitely doesn't count, and compared with the increase in offline housing prices this year, the increase in this range is not worth mentioning at all.

You just said that Huayi Capital is a bit overly optimistic about the "big infrastructure" line.

In fact, the offline real estate market is booming with house prices rising.

There is no reason not to be optimistic, and there is no reason not to take a position.

Of course, your analysis is not wrong. There is indeed not much room for improving the urbanization rate in China.

But isn't the country now advocating the development strategy of "the Maritime Silk Road in the New Era" in terms of macroeconomic policies? Abroad, the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia... vast markets are waiting for our country's infrastructure team to explore. Even if only 10% or 20% of the expectations are fulfilled, the space is still quite large.

Moreover, in the past few years, the economy has continued to develop and infrastructure has taken off.

Among the various industries related to the main line of "big infrastructure", many breakthroughs in technology are also remarkable.

In other words, even if we go abroad, my country's construction capabilities in "large infrastructure" are still very competitive internationally.

Also, at least for now...

The trend of the global economy still shows a multilateral economic situation.

As long as the economic situation is multilateral and the overall environment is relatively stable, these optimistic expectations will most likely be fulfilled.

Overall...

As for the "big infrastructure" line, it is far from the time to talk about risks.

Regardless of the short-term volatility trend, in the medium and long term, this line will definitely continue to move upward with a high degree of certainty.

Otherwise, our fund products would not continue to increase their holdings on this core line.

Of course, after this period of market trends and emotional fermentation.

I estimate that many large financial institutions in the market should have completed the initial scale of position building.

Subsequently, if the "big infrastructure" line wants to form a sustained breakthrough and a smooth upward trend, it still needs to attract the cooperation of incremental funds off-site, and the main capital groups in the market must be able to continue to lock their positions. Only then will the chips be relatively settled.

In the context of a bear market, this is a core theme of huge size.

Only in this way can we truly open up the market's high space and truly lead the other major main lines of the entire market to form a breakthrough."

"Okay." Huang Qingyun listened to Men Xingtao's analysis, pondered for a while, and said, "Then let's continue to wait and see. If this position can form a consistent upward trend with shrinking volume as you said, it means that many of the chips that intervened before have gradually settled down, which means that there is hope for a breakthrough in the market. If the volume performance is not good, or there is still a huge divergence like yesterday, I estimate... the market trend, whether it is the 'big infrastructure' line or other market main lines, I am afraid that they will have to continue to fall back."

After saying this, he turned his attention back to the two markets.

While they were talking and analyzing the market, the market trading time had already entered after 9:45.

After 15 minutes of trading at the beginning of the session.

In the entire market, the main theme of "big infrastructure" still maintains a strong high opening and high closing pattern. The growth rates of sector indices such as real estate, building decoration, building materials, nonferrous metals, steel, and coal are still at the top of the list of growth rates of various industry sector indices in the two cities.

Just compare the buying volume in those few minutes after the opening and the increase in the market price.

It has obviously fallen back a bit, and the momentum for further upward movement is weakening.

As for other main market lines, such as film and television media, Internet software, electronic information... these industry sectors that tend to be more inclined towards the "technology" main line need not be mentioned. Except for a slight rise at the beginning of the session, the trends of these industry sectors have all fallen into a downward trend at this moment.

Even the main sectors of liquor, white goods, medicine and consumption, which once attracted a lot of major buying funds at the beginning of the trading session.

At this moment, there was some sign of decline.

The banking sector is no longer strong today.

In addition, the main lines of "big infrastructure" and "technology" and the defensive core weight main line sectors are basically showing a trend of shrinking volume.

"This situation... I feel that the upward attack is weak, and it has formed a volatile pattern again." After noticing the first wave of attacks at the beginning of the trading session, the upward trend of the main lines of the major markets slowed down, and the long and short forces on the market gradually showed a tug-of-war state. No one could gain the upper hand, resulting in low certainty of the market trend. Both active buying and selling showed hesitation. At this time, among the main speculators of the "Fushan system", Li Jinshi looked at the market and frowned obviously, saying, "This is really capricious. The weak turn to strong in the call auction, and the strong upward attack in the first few minutes of the trading session... Is this the result? It feels like taking back the chips lost yesterday at the beginning of the trading session was a mistake again."