Rebirth of the Capital Legend

Finally, when 11:30 arrived, the two markets entered the midday closing time.

The Shanghai Composite Index was settled near 3037 points, maintaining a slight increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index maintained an increase of around 1%.

The performance of several core themes in the two cities.

The main weight-related sectors such as liquor, white goods, medicine, consumption, electricity, petrochemicals, finance, etc. maintained a flat fluctuation with shrinking volume, or a slight decline and adjustment with shrinking volume; the real estate, building decoration, building materials, nonferrous metals, steel, coal, etc. sectors related to the 'big infrastructure' main line showed a trend of narrow fluctuations with shrinking volume, and the intensity of long and short trading on the market was lower than yesterday; the film and television media, Internet software, Internet applications, electronic information, etc. sectors related to the 'emerging industrial chain' main line also fell into a trend of continuous shrinking volume and fluctuations at intraday highs after opening low and closing high in the morning, digesting the selling pressure and profit-taking pressure on the market.

In general, the market trend showed a clear decline compared with yesterday.

Whether it is the active long forces or the concentrated short forces, they all fell into a wait-and-see state for a short period of time.

As for the major main areas, a number of popular core concept stocks that have received much attention from investors across the market and have been hotly discussed, still show a relatively positive trend in the overall trend of the index's narrow fluctuations, whether it is stocks such as 'Oriental Yuhong', 'Capital Group', 'Huaxin Building Materials', 'Huaxin Cement', 'Beijiang Communications Construction' in the main area of ​​'big infrastructure', or stocks such as 'Huawen Online', 'Huawen Media', 'LeTV', 'Quantong Trading', 'Netspeed Technology', 'Baofeng Technology', 'Maruda Films' and other stocks in the main area of ​​'emerging industrial chains', the overall profit effect of the market is still relatively strong, and retail investors who follow suit are also relatively active.

Of course, this is consistent with the overall market trend of shrinking volume.

Judging from the market performance of these popular stocks, today's half-day trading volume, compared with yesterday's half-day trading volume, also showed an overall shrinking trend.

"Looking at the situation at the close of the market at noon, it feels like the strength of the index's aggressive upward movement has decreased compared to the early trading stage." After the midday close, during the one and a half hour break, Zhao Zhiyuan, one of the main speculators of the 'Qilu Gang', stared at the frozen market of the two cities, pondered for a moment, and sighed, "It is still constrained by the volume. The index trend is not so smooth. If the volume cannot be further expanded, the space for the index to continue to rebound upward feels very limited. Although the trends of the major hot stocks today are not problematic, the bullish forces that actively support them are obviously somewhat exhausted. Logically speaking, the market sentiment is not bad at the moment. After the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3000 points, investment confidence has also obviously recovered. Why can't the volume go up?"

"The volume has not been able to increase, which shows that since the outbreak of this round of rebound, it is basically the on-site capital groups that are playing against each other." Zhang Wei took over and said, "As long as we cannot attract a large number of off-site capital groups to enter the market, there is no way to talk about the market reversal, and its upward rebound space will be suppressed. However, I feel that today's market shrinking trend has little to do with whether the off-site capital groups enter the market or not. According to yesterday's trend, today's market should also be shrinking, and it must be shrinking."

"According to yesterday's trend, today's market should shrink to allow the chips in the market to settle further." Zhao Zhiyuan said, "But what I understand as shrinking volume should also be shrinking volume to attack, and a clearer shrinking big positive line should be formed. This kind of shrinking volume and narrow range fluctuation trend, I feel, is a manifestation of weakness."

"Today, neither the weight line nor the 'big infrastructure' line has exerted any strength, and both are in a process of shrinking and fluctuating, and the trend of chips is settling." Liang Jiucheng thought for a while and responded, "In the case that the weight main line and the 'big infrastructure' main line have not exerted any strength, relying solely on the sentiment created by the 'emerging industrial chain' line and the assistance of the group of follow-up funds, the current red market trend is maintained, which I think is not bad.

In the market trend this morning, although the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Composite Index seemed somewhat weak, they did not achieve the expected results that everyone had expected before the market opened.

However, the trends of the ChiNext Index, CSI 500 Index and ZTE 1000 Index.

However, it clearly exceeded everyone's psychological expectations before the market opened.

In addition to the several core related sectors of the 'emerging industrial chain' line, the 'new energy industry chain' main line related sectors that performed weakly in the early stage, as well as communications, semiconductors, animal husbandry and other marginal main line sector stocks that were relatively stagnant in the early stage and lacked the attention of the main capital groups, performed relatively well today and were generally stronger than the overall market trend.

This means that although the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Composite Index did not rise much today.

However, the money-making effect of the entire market is no lower than yesterday for the majority of retail investors.

In addition, the stocks that were stagnant in the early stage began to make up for the rise, and the main leading stocks that were strong in the early stage began to adjust sideways, waiting for the stocks that made up for the rise to catch up...

In my opinion, this phenomenon is also a relatively virtuous cycle in the market trend.

This shows that as the market's bullish sentiment progresses, investment confidence is generally recovering.

The overall valuation level of the market is still rising.

At least it is no longer the previous situation where various large capital groups continued to hold the main weight line, always looking for certainty, and were unwilling to intervene in the extreme group trend of other main line sectors.

It also shows that in this round of index rebound, retail investors can also reap some profits.

Enjoy the benefits of market growth.

For me, the investment direction of the market is slowly changing.

As long as the majority of retail investors are present in the market, they will be able to enjoy the returns on their holding accounts brought about by this round of index rebound.

Then, as the market's money-making effect continues to improve and the confidence of the majority of retail investors in holding positions increases, a large number of funds waiting on the sidelines will sooner or later enter the market to go long and take over the market.

Sooner or later, the market volume will return to the situation that everyone wants.

However, this process is still a bit long. Nothing, including market trends, can be achieved overnight.

The index fluctuates and consolidates here, re-consolidating the bullish forces while settling the chips.

Although it is slightly below the expectations of aggressive investors in the market, it is not a bad thing.

As long as the index maintains a fluctuation above 3000 points and ensures that the breakthrough of 3000 points is effective, then I think we can be more patient. "

"What we are afraid of is that the volume will not go up. The chips that were originally locked and settled will start to float again under the change of everyone's expectations, showing a trend of many funds decisively taking profits and leaving the market to wait and see." Zhao Zhiyuan said, "And at present, the Shanghai Composite Index is only one point away from 3000 points. This space cannot be said to be safe. Once the Shanghai Composite Index falls below 3000 points again, the overall market's bullish confidence will definitely be shaken, and more funds will fall into a wait-and-see situation. If you ask me... this position cannot create space to move upward, it is possible that it will have to adjust downward again and step back to the top range of the previous oscillation platform, that is, the range platform of 2900 points to 2970 points."

"If it really falls back again, it will be a sign of weakness." Zhang Wei said, "According to the normal breakthrough trend, even if it falls back, the Shanghai Composite Index must first break through 3100 points and show a clear upward breakthrough trend. If it falls back now, it will form this round of breakthrough, which is a false breakthrough trend, causing the current group of confident position holders in the market to sell in a concentrated manner. At that time...off-site funds cannot be attracted in, and the funds in the market cannot bear the concentrated selling chips under the change of expectations. In other words, at this position, if the Shanghai Composite Index falls below 3000 points again and falls back, it is very likely that it will not be a retracement, but the end of the entire round of rebound."

"Yes, I have this worry as well." Zhao Zhiyuan took over and continued, "Today's normal trend should be a rapid rise with shrinking volume. Such a narrow range of fluctuations is a manifestation of weakness due to the restriction of market buying volume. I think...is it better to take profit on some positions here and close the gap while you are ahead?"

"It's not a big problem to stop profit on some positions when you're ahead." Liang Jiucheng thought for a moment and responded, "But I still tend to think that there will be no retracement here for the time being. Whether it's the main line of 'big infrastructure' or the main line of 'emerging industrial chain', there is still an expectation that it will continue to rise."

"We can wait and see how the market trend performs this afternoon." Zhang Wei said, "If the market still shows this kind of narrow range and shrinking volume in the afternoon, we can reduce our positions and take a look. Overall, today's 'emerging industrial chain' line, after completing the general reversal of yesterday's trend, did not continue to push up the sentiment, resulting in the current sentiment performance of the entire line turning towards divergence again."

"The market trend in the afternoon should choose a new direction, right?" said Zhao Zhiyuan.

Liang Jiucheng thought for a moment and responded, "Not necessarily. Judging from the market performance today, it seems that investors are in a wait-and-see mood. In this case, we may need some stimulus from news or external market trends to quickly choose a direction. Otherwise... we can only wait for the market to digest it."

"The boost from news and external market trends?" Zhao Zhiyuan thought for a moment and said, "Then we can only look at the feedback from the Hong Kong stock market. Although the correlation between the Hong Kong stock market and the A-share market is not very strong now, and the Hong Kong stock market is more following the US stock market, it should still have some effect in terms of driving effect, right?"

"Yes." Zhang Wei nodded. "If the Hong Kong stock market continues to strengthen, it should still have a driving effect on the A-share market. I remember that the hype of the main line of "big infrastructure" was blown up by the domestic real estate stocks in the Hong Kong stock market, and finally formed the current trend breakthrough trend."

"In this round of rebound, the performance of Hong Kong-listed Chinese real estate stocks is indeed much stronger than the leading stocks in the A-share 'big infrastructure' sector." Zhao Zhiyuan said, "In this wave of rebound, Hengda Real Estate has risen by nearly 150% from the bottom. However, based on future expectations, the valuation of Hengda Real Estate is still much cheaper than the leading real estate stocks in our A-shares!"

"The valuation methods of the two markets are different," Liang Jiucheng said. "However, in this round of 'big infrastructure' market, the linkage trend of the two markets is indeed much stronger than before. This round of A-share market rebound trend is indeed a bit like following the Hong Kong stock market, and the Hong Kong stock market is obviously following the US stock market."

"It would be great if they could all follow the trend of the U.S. stock market," Zhang Wei said. "Looking at the trend of the U.S. stock market, it is clear that it will continue to set new highs and continue its long bull trend."

"Let's take a look at the market trend in the afternoon first." Zhao Zhiyuan said, "If you look too far ahead, you won't be able to see the situation clearly. Focusing on the present and making corresponding changes to trading strategies based on the feedback of market sentiment will actually give you more certainty. Anyway, looking at the market trend this morning, I plan to reduce my positions at highs in the afternoon and free up some positions to deal with possible subsequent corrections. At this point... there is no need to chase highs and take risks to gamble on profits."

"I think we still have to see how Oriental Yuhong and Huawen Online perform," Zhang Wei said. "If these two core leading stocks can maintain their strong performance, and Huawen Online can continue to hit the daily limit this afternoon without any risk of a stock price explosion, then I think the short-term bullish sentiment in the market is very likely to continue to ferment and continue to rise. As for Oriental Yuhong, its volatile trend today is actually not weak, and the trend is still there. It feels like it can continue to accelerate its main rise."

"The trend of the two stocks, 'Oriental Yuhong' and 'Huawen Online', is likely to be fine today." Zhao Zhiyuan said, "But the several trend-following leaders associated with these two stocks have obviously fallen behind today. Look at the stocks of 'Capital Group', 'Huawen Media', 'Huaxin Cement', 'North Frontier Communications Construction', and 'Quantong Education'. Basically, none of them were able to completely reverse yesterday's trend. 'Quantong Education', the core leader of the 'emerging industrial chain', rose straight in the intraday, and now it has pulsed and oscillated back to the flat position. The stock of 'Capital Group' has a short-term outbreak in the early trading, and now it has fallen back to the underwater position.

In today's market, it seems that the 'emerging industrial chain' line has formed an overall rebound.

However, in fact, the money-making effect of the market and the corresponding core leading stocks, except for "Oriental Yuhong" and "Huawen Online", the active buying of other core concept leading stocks is gradually fading, and the money-making effect has not recovered significantly.

In this situation, once there is a group of profit-taking funds in the afternoon, they will concentrate on dumping the market to lock in profits.

I am afraid it will trigger a concentrated collapse of sentiment, leading to a further plunge in the market.”

"During the lunch break, the sentiment feedback from retail investors on major investment exchange platforms across the entire market was not bad," said Zhang Wei. "Let's see if the afternoon weighted main line and the 'big infrastructure' main line can produce some profit effects and help boost the market sentiment. If these two main lines can help after the mood brews during the lunch break, then it is not impossible for the afternoon market trend to have a shocking reversal like the end of yesterday's trading."