Excellent little farmer

Due to China's rapid economic development, China's demand for oil is increasing, and domestic oil resources are decreasing day by day. International oil prices will only rise, with no possibility of falling, and China's crude oil self-sufficiency rate will rapidly decline to only meet half of the demand. , and this trend will be irreversible, so how to prepare for a rainy day and establish China's own stable crude oil import supply system will be a crucial factor.

Looking at the world at this time, the oil resources in the Middle East have basically been divided up by various forces. It is difficult for China to intervene. And regions such as Iran and Iraq are subject to the political influence of the superpower the United States. China is not yet equipped to challenge the United States. The strength of hegemony. Although Africa is rich in oil resources, firstly, the distance is too far, and it is difficult for the Chinese influence to be achieved for a while. Secondly, transportation costs will also be a huge problem, especially in this period of low oil prices, transportation costs are also It seems more sensitive.

The Caspian Sea coastal area with the Caspian Sea as the core will gradually become another core area of ​​oil production. For China, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the economic decline of Russia, and the independence of Central Asia are even rare to some extent. Opportunities, how to seize this opportunity, use the abundant resources in Central Asia and even Russia's Western Siberia and Eastern Siberia for one's own use, build these regions into stable energy import bases for China, and at the same time increase exports to the west, especially the northwest region development, promote the economic development of this region, and achieve a win-win situation, which requires early layout.

Huang Wenhan joined the State Economic and Trade Commission as deputy director, which undoubtedly provided the possibility for such a plan of mine. On the one hand, I collected as much information as possible, and on the other hand, I also tried my best to write down my thoughts and opinions and send them to Huang Wenhan.

As expected, my stuff aroused Huang Wenhan's interest. Although he was only half-convinced, this view was not without echoes in the domestic economic circles. Sitting in this position, Huang Wenhan could easily communicate with major domestic university research institutions and Get in touch with the research departments of the Academy of Social Sciences and other institutions and groups, and quickly obtain very rich and accurate data and information in this regard.

Huang Wenhan was quite puzzled by my thinking. He could not imagine how a young man like me, who was engaged in a non-economic major, could have such a profound and precise view on such a very complex and extensive professional field. .

Through discussions and exchanges with professional researchers from some domestic social science institutions and research departments of universities and colleges, as well as policy research institutions within the Economic and Trade Commission, Huang Wenhan increasingly felt that I was a bit unfathomable.

This year, Turkmenistan has had serious disagreements with Russia over the issue of natural gas prices. The two sides are at loggerheads, and Russia has used its absolute control over the gas pipeline to strangle Turkmenistan by the throat, making the other party unable to resist. I watched helplessly as the other party forcefully purchased natural gas at extremely low prices, and then resold it to Western Europe at a high price to make huge profits.

If polar bears facing difficulties do not seize cheap and abundant natural gas resources in Central Asia through such means, their economic situation will be even more difficult.

As for what will happen to the natural gas price dispute between Turkmenistan and Russia after this year, Huang Wenhan also has some doubts. Turkmenistan does not have the strength to fight against Russia. The reason is very simple. Turkmenistan's natural gas export channels are completely in the hands of Russia, that is, Saying that Russia is its only buyer of natural gas, it has no choice.

But I told Huang Wenhan that President Niyazov of Turkmenistan is a very stubborn politician. He will not easily let his country succumb to the oppression of polar bears, so Turkmenistan is very likely to fall out with Russia, and this is Opportunity for China.

The anemic polar bears are now a powerful foreign power and a cadre in the middle. They have little ability to interfere with China's expansion of power in Central Asia, especially to strengthen investment in energy, because their own domestic energy companies are also in a state of extreme embarrassment, and those who have gone through privatization The production capacity and efficiency of energy production companies have fallen into a very difficult situation, and the relative weakness of international oil prices has made them even worse.

Huang Wenhan has been paying attention to this issue in the past two months. The natural gas dispute between Russia and Turkmenistan has been escalating day by day. This is just as I predicted. The huge differences between the two countries on natural gas export prices and payment methods have caused a series of conflicts between them. Time seems to be hard to find a solution, which makes Huang Wenhan even more impressed by my precise views.

Huang Wenhan and I have also had many discussions on domestic energy issues, including exchanging phone calls and written information. We came to the unanimous conclusion that China's demand for external energy will be increasing, and the proportion of imported energy will also increase. It will increase day by day, and the increase will get bigger and bigger.

In view of the instability of the situation in the Middle East and the high attention of European and American powers to the Middle East, the best energy supply channels that China can currently seek are the most convenient and stable ones in Central Asia and Russia, followed by Southeast Asia (Myanmar, Indonesia) and Cambodia) and Africa, and it is undoubtedly the most appropriate time to adopt various ways and means to enter the above areas that were in a weak state due to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Once Russia recovers from its weakness, that country will lose a golden opportunity.

Huang Wenhan has always believed that I should work in some policy research offices of the central ministries and commissions, which is probably more suitable. He even firmly believes that if I can be trained in national think tanks such as the central government or the State Council Policy Research Office, it will be more suitable. , my development prospects will be broader, but I seem to be less interested in entering this type of research institution, and would rather develop honestly at the grassroots level.

It is important to develop at the grassroots level, but being able to work at the central level will undoubtedly put you on a better platform, but I gave up this idea over and over again.

As a national think tank, there are countless experts with foresight and wisdom, but why is it that Huang Wenhan’s views have attracted the attention of the highest level, while the suggestions and articles of these people who hold the same views and attitudes can only be regarded as Attachment information appears?

There is no other reason than that he stands high enough, which impressed me deeply.

Ren Xiangdong has officially received the transfer order. He will resign from his position as deputy president of Jiangzhou Agricultural Development Bank and be promoted to deputy director of the Financial Stability Bureau of the People's Bank of China. He will officially become a deputy department-level cadre and rank among the central financial core centers.

This will be the last Spring Festival he spends in Yuzhou, and he will officially take office after the festival.

I don’t know if my series of discussions with him on the financial crisis also had the effect of a butterfly flapping its wings and causing a storm in Ren Xiangdong’s life. However, Ren Xiangdong himself did not mince words. The view that the huge systemic risks in the financial sector, especially the Thai financial sector, will most likely trigger a financial crisis has led him to study this issue tirelessly over the past few months, and has also led him to frequently publish in domestic and foreign financial publications. Such warning articles.

This objectively increases his influence, but it also puts considerable pressure on him. If the financial crisis does not happen as expected, he will become a huge laughing stock, even if his theory is correct. People believe.

However, it is very realistic that his views have won the support and recognition of some people, and most of them are recognized by very high-level people. Otherwise, Ren Xiangdong does not believe that an unknown character like him would suddenly be transferred to the People's Bank of China.

It is not known in what way the financial crisis will sweep across. It is even difficult to say whether there will be a word or two, but Ren Xiangdong is convinced.

The financial crisis is a financial crisis. For me now, how to base myself on reality and do my job well in a down-to-earth manner is more important. Everything else is important to the parties involved, but it is still a bit illusive to me.

Instead of fishing in the abyss, it is better to retreat and build a net. Now, winning the recognition of the main leaders of the municipal party committee is the most important thing for you, especially how to achieve further leaps and leaps in the coming year. That's the key.

I was woken up by the phone call in a dazed state.

I looked a little apologetically at Xu Wanzi lying next to me. I put on my pajamas and got up. There was no doubt that the call at this time was definitely not a good news call.

The call was from Pang Jun, and I could even hear Chen Lei's anxious and heavy voice on Pang Jun's phone.

"What happened?" I tried to suppress the irritability in my heart and make my voice sound normal.

"County Magistrate Ye, I'm really sorry to disturb your rest, but there is something I must report to you immediately."

Pang Jun's voice on the phone sounded urgent and dull, which gave me a feeling of panic. I calculated and looked at my watch. Pang Jun was not on duty on the fifth day of the first lunar month. Pang Jun should be on duty on the seventh day of the first lunar month. This But it was him who called me, which made me feel even more guilty. Don't make sure anything big happens, especially a safety accident or a traffic accident. Then this year may really be a quiet one.