New Shun 1730

When the emperor heard Liu Yu say that he could save money, he didn't agree immediately with excitement, but immediately thought of Liu Yu's methods.

I'm afraid it will be to promote industry and commerce, sell land, open commercial ports, sell rent, etc. Many of them are the ideas of Wang Kunsheng of the Yanli School, such as improving urban land and selling land rent. In other words, it is to open commercial ports, open trade, and then rent the land to merchants.

As for the rest, there is no need to think about things like developing industry and commerce, planting cash crops, building roads, and repairing rivers.

There is a lot of capital in Songsu and other places, but it is difficult to enter the interior due to the court's policies. The emperor has always been very vigilant about introducing "foreign" capital.

If the court borrows money, the interest rate is a bit high. Dashun is not as low as the financial market in Amsterdam, where it can borrow about 4% annual interest.

Merchants will definitely not pay a penny for repairing river embankments, which is thankless and has no capital benefits.

Maybe some donations may be made, but whether the donated money is enough to repair dozens of miles is a question, it is a drop in the bucket.

The concept of the Yellow River embankment is not just a matter of rubbing a few handfuls of soil.

Of course, there are also benefits to repairing the river in advance. At least, the river channel that was washed out after the Yellow River burst and flooded cannot be dredged.

But if the river channel is prepared artificially, it can be dug deep in advance.

Although it may take seven or eight years to dig that little depth, the Yellow River can be flattened in three to five years or more than ten years, but at least there is no need to worry about major events in the next ten years.

Moreover, it can be reserved in advance for irrigation waterways, etc.

However, this money, the capital of merchants, is absolutely impossible to pay. Unless the court borrows money at an interest rate that meets the market, asks merchants to borrow money, and repays the interest in the future.

In the era of paper money, it is actually easy to say that borrowing can depreciate, which is actually equivalent to not spending much money.

But now is the age of gold and silver, and the paper money of Dashun is so small. If it wants to continue to expand the over-issuance, it must complete the currency reform across the country.

This is another headache, and the emperor is afraid of the old paper money of the previous dynasty.

And Liu Yu's method is accustomed to letting capital make profits, so as to lure merchants to pay for work.

So what is left to make profits?

It's nothing more than building railways and canals. It's not in vain to build them. After the construction, the right to operate and dividends will be given.

Of course, according to Liu Yu's way, it seems that if he chooses to levy domestic tariffs and provincial tariffs, he can also collect a sum of money.

For example, open up the Shandong market, let the industrial and commercial goods of Songsu impact the local small peasant economy of Shandong, set up a "customs" in Jiaodong, and levy ridiculous domestic tariffs.

If the goods of Songsu can completely kill the handicraft industry in Shandong, then it may be possible to collect two or three million taels of "tariffs" a year. Or even more.

At that time, Shandong will grow some peanuts, tobacco, cotton, grain, etc., and "export" them to Songsu, Nanyang, and Japan, which will not prevent some landlords from getting rich first.

Historically, the result of this is that after a large number of commodities entered, Shandong's labor force was so cheap that a long-term worker could only earn 50 kilograms of sorghum rice in a month, but people still rushed to do it.

Moreover, the speed of land annexation is extremely fast. Especially cash crops such as tobacco, which require a lot of capital investment.

Cash crops eat up the land.

You have to buy bean cakes to fertilize the fields and coal to bake tobacco. Small farmers are forced to the extreme. Without this capital, they can only mortgage their land in exchange for the bean cakes and coal blocks they need this year.

As for how high the interest rate of this mortgage loan is?

In fact, in old China, it was also considered "the interest of benevolence and righteousness".

According to records in Weixian and other places, the interest rate for borrowing bean cakes from landlords is 8% per month, which is 96% per year; while the interest rate for buying coal from shops is more humane, with an annual interest rate of only 25% to 40%, but ten months is counted as one year, not twelve months.

Then is it okay not to grow cash crops? Three or four acres of land, grow some food, pay heavy taxes, and eat sweet potatoes every day, it seems that it is probably possible to not starve to death.

The problem is that under the small peasant private ownership, everyone wants to run, small peasants become rich peasants, and rich peasants become landlords. Take a gamble, if the price of tobacco takes off this year, wouldn’t it be possible to pay off the old debt directly and buy two or three acres of land? Moreover, the premise of eating sweet potatoes on three or four acres of land is that there is no disaster and no usury.

Liu Yu judged that the possible railway from the capital to Hankou would have little impact on the Central Plains, and the probability of enclosure movement was very small, which was not nonsense.

Railways also have transportation costs, especially for the cargo volume of this era, the cost is very high. Shipping out, plus the freight cost, is not profitable at all.

Shandong is very different. It is so close to the sea, and sea transportation is so cheap, so land annexation and even development into enclosure are very possible.

Tobacco, cotton, peanuts, this is all possible. Just like Guandong, Liu Yu introduced Songsu capital, enclosure, buying contract workers to grow beans are almost the same, profitable.

Learning from history, the traditions of different countries are different.

Luosha State, because of its traditional village community system and the collective mutual assistance tradition of the village community of the Old Ritualists of the Orthodox Church, considered avoiding the pain of capitalism and directly crossing this canyon in one step.

On the Dashun side, because of its traditional equal land thought, it will naturally produce this: Can industrialization be completed under the condition of minimizing the suffering of small farmers through the traditional retro thinking of equal land and land nationalization?

After all, tradition itself is also part of the real material world.

Another reality is that some areas of Dashun have already developed first and will soon seize the largest raw material market and occupy the upper hand in dumping trade. There is no lack of primitive accumulation of capital, nor is it in a situation where it has been lagging behind for more than a hundred years and needs to catch up.

Tradition and reality have created a theoretical way to complete the transformation by alleviating the suffering of small farmers to the greatest extent. But this requires a large-scale armed uprising with the participation of people with industrialized thinking and representing the class of the new era to complete the equal distribution of land, so as to avoid falling into the "limitations of small farmers" after the uprising is successful.

It's just that the situation Dashun is facing now is a split.

The practical school that believes that the vague, illusory but tangible industrialization is the right path is a group of radical progressives. Liu Yu always talks about not trying to find a sword by sticking to the boat, but he can't stand them using the situation in Songsu and Guandong as a template; and the Confucian retro school that is thinking about equal distribution of fields and wells is a group of retro reactionaries, who are themselves opposed to the overdevelopment of industry and commerce, and their minds are still full of the utopian society of "full labor for full exchange".

The former has the right purpose, but in the case of Dashun, it can't accomplish anything, and it can be beaten out of its ass by the unprecedented super-large-scale peasant uprising and the old gentry and landlord forces.

First weigh how much the emerging class weighs now, and calculate that the taxes they provide are about the same as the traditional land rent, so do they really think that they control as many resources as the gentry and landlords?

The latter's methods can be used as a reference, but their minds are still stuck in the three generations of rule and fantasy, which can make the capitalist world grind out its shit.

If they really followed their method, they would definitely have to abandon India, give up the South China Sea, cut the navy, divide the feudal system, let the gentry and students in the province discuss politics, and recommend talents. In this world where the whole world is jumping up and down for power, it would be a complete mess.

Of course, Liu Yu would definitely not say these things that would make the emperor furious and scared to death.

But, facing the emperor, he couldn't fool around with "only advantages and no disadvantages" like he did with the prince, because it was a bit difficult to fool around.

Moreover, the emperor had a little understanding of Liu Yu's style of speaking many years ago. For any "only advantages and no disadvantages" thing, most of the time he would say a lot of advantages, and then say halfway through the thing, "Oh, I didn't expect there were disadvantages before..."

Now Liu Yu made a bold statement, saying that it might only cost 40 to 50 million taels to accomplish this "immeasurable merit" event... Where would the money come from? The emperor must consider this issue.

Even if Liu Yu was willing to come up with something like the refugee map despite the criticism from everyone, and forcibly occupied the land of the landowners in the planned river uninhabited area and sent them all to cultivate... the money for repairing the dike, changing the transportation line, and replanning the water conservancy project would definitely not be solved by more than 40 or 50 million taels.

After dealing with Songsu, let Liu Yu deal with Shandong?

In fact, this has already exceeded the bottom line of the emperor's distinction between inside and outside.

Maybe the emperor is not as dark as Liu Yu thinks, but in fact, the darkest idea is precisely the feasible, controllable, and most beneficial means to the imperial power.

The current situation is that what the emperor thinks does not need to be investigated at this time.

Now it is a private conversation, and Liu Yu has made it very clear and understandable, which can be regarded as directly open.

Behind this sentence is the disaster that tens of millions of people may encounter, and the tens of thousands of square miles of Shandong may be flooded, which will affect the stability of water conservancy farmland in Shandong for decades in the future.

Also, the price of grain in Shandong has been rising in recent years, which can no longer be explained by "good harvest means cheap grain, bad harvest means expensive grain" - this explanation is based on Shandong's 10 million population and 70 million arable land; and now with a population of more than 20 million, the arable land has not increased much, so it would be a case of looking for a sword on a boat.

Some things can be said in private, no matter how you say them.

But once they are taken out and publicly fired in the court, the matter may be difficult to end.

At that time, whether to do it or not, it will involve more problems.

Whether to do it or not, if it is really discussed publicly in the court, whether to do it or not, it will face countless nonsense and troubles.

This is not just a simple matter of the local Jiedushi seeking benefits and avoiding harm for the local area, but also involves a similar rhetoric of a "practical school" that wants to throw the Yellow River to Shandong for Songsu. If they really fight, I am afraid that many things will not be suppressed.

So the emperor could not refuse it outright and directly tell Liu Yu that it was not possible.

It's easy to refuse.

But how can we ensure that there are no people who are not afraid of death and make a big fuss about this matter? If it really gets out of hand, it will be even more embarrassing to force a farce like signing a "life and death statement" - who dares to say that the Yellow River will not burst? What is the bet? Bet on the head? Bet on the whole family?

Besides, since Liu Yu dared to take on this matter, in the eyes of the emperor, he was really going to die. It would be uncomfortable for such a tough guy who is not afraid of death and being stabbed in the back to be really stubborn.

Of course, as long as it is not directly refused and Liu Yu insists on making a big fuss, then this matter cannot be regarded as Liu Yu forcing the court to do something.

In the end, it still depends on the emperor's attitude and what Liu Yu will do if he does not allow it.

The emperor thought for a while and asked: "Let's not talk about surveying, civilians, and land acquisition. Apart from these things, what do you think should be done?"

Liu Yu hurriedly said: "Your Majesty, we will raise funds from private merchants to build railways first. Starting from Jiaodong, to Jinan, and then to Jining and Yanzhou Prefecture."

"If we want to repair the Yellow River, the water transportation of Daqing River and Xiaoqing River will be damaged. We must first open roads to maintain the original business operations and salt transportation in Shandong. Otherwise, if we act rashly, we will be in chaos."

"The Jining area has been declining since the canal was abandoned, and there are more and more refugees. It is better to recruit them as laborers to build roads and bridges."

"And since we want to control the river, we must consider immigration. If there is no railway, immigration will be too difficult. "If we can get through Jiaozhou, we can cross the ocean or Liaodong in the north when there is a disaster. This is convenient."

"Besides, if we want to control the river and build the dike, we must transport the grain. Now the grain is transported by sea. If there is no road bridge, it will be inconvenient to control the river and build the dike."

"Even if I control the river, I don't need to govern Yanzhou or Qingzhou. I only need to supervise the river for about 30 miles. In addition, Linzi, Weixian and other places connected by railways will not be disturbed even if they fail."

Before the canal was abolished, the economic center and developed areas of Shandong were southwest and northwest Shandong. It was the opposite of later generations.

Ancient cities like Linzi, which existed two thousand years ago, have become counties; Weifang has lost even a state and has become a small county town.

In itself, Weihai and other places were considered "outside" in the emperor's mind because Liu Yu trained soldiers and opened schools and opened routes to Korea in the early years.

Now Liu Yu said that he didn't want to make it as big as Songsu, but just supervise the towns along the river, three or two poor counties, and a small place like Jiaodong Bay with tens of thousands of people in the past. This made the emperor feel that this matter was not beyond discussion.

The businessmen invested, and the railway could not be moved. What would happen in the future? In the emperor's view, there would be both good and bad opinions.