New Shun 1730
Chapter 476 Malthus of Japan
However, this kind of impact may not be a bad thing.
Gold can be exchanged for more silver, and Dashun continues Zhang Juzheng's reforms, which can basically be regarded as silver as the base currency. The finances of the shogunate in recent years may really improve greatly.
Maybe the shogunate still thinks that the switch is good. You see that the gold in hand is getting more and more valuable. The silk that used to be bought with one or two gold can now be bought with only eight coins.
Tokugawa Yoshimune considered the secret request made by Liu Yu. Except for drawing the map, everything else is easy to agree to.
He had the idea of being a comprador for a few years to save money. He was also afraid that Liu Yu would really come to attack him again because of the frugality order. He wanted to do this, and he could also get Dashun's promise to continue the shogunate, which was worth it.
The only thing was drawing the map.
Not only did Dashun have to take care of his safety in the future, but it was also a sign of complete surrender. Even though Dashun had not yet oppressed Japan to the point of surrendering its territory, and had saved some face, I am afraid that when the full map of Dashun is drawn in the future, Japan will definitely be drawn into the map, just like the situation in Korea.
But at this time, there is really no way to resist. Matsudaira Terutsada, who is in charge of the negotiations, has already mentioned the secret agreement. If this is not agreed, Dashun will not sell guns and warships to the shogunate.
Two million taels of silver is not a small amount for the shogunate; being drawn by Dashun on the territory is not a small matter.
But I am the fish on the chopping board, and now each feudal lord has his own thoughts, and they are eager to be the fish. Tokugawa Yoshimune is also the first to get the moon, so he can only agree.
He still trusts Liu Yu's promises and guarantees. If he really doesn't have such thoughts, there is really no need to sell guns to the shogunate, but he still hasn't figured out where Liu Yu dug the pit.
There must be a pit. Tokugawa Yoshimune is very sure of this. But whether it will be a trap after ten years or a hundred years, that is really unknown.
Knowing it is a trap, the temptation to jump in is still great.
"These conditions do not need to be signed in a treaty. First, it will not sound good if it is spread out, and the Celestial Empire is also afraid that some ignorant people in Japan will use it as a sarcastic remark by Zhao Gou; second, the ancients said that if the letter is not sincere, the question is useless."
"In any case, since the general has agreed, we are also ministers of the same dynasty. The general will be conferred a title of a prince, and when I meet the general, I will have to pay my respects."
"Since we are all noble families, we should rest with the country. The shogunate will not be destroyed if the Celestial Empire does not perish, and the general can rest assured about this."
Tokugawa Yoshimune had no choice but to nod his head. Indeed, it would not be good if this thing was clearly written in the treaty.
Fortunately, Dashun's guarantee was very sincere to the Tokugawa family. Especially on the issue of enthroning the crown prince, they are much more tolerant than the Korean side. In Korea, if they want to change the crown prince, they have to fight with the Li government for several years, and then they have to give gifts. On the Tokugawa side, it is just a formality, which is similar to the Tokugawa family's previous "petition" to the emperor to continue the position of shogun. There is not much difference. Just change someone to petition.
The two discussed the time of weapon delivery and determined that when the first batch of compensation is in place, the money and the goods will be delivered.
Dashun can first lease a group of sailors and officers to the Tokugawa family as instructors to teach the people under the Tokugawa family how to sail and fire.
It can be said that it is full of sincerity.
Behind this sincerity, Tokugawa Yoshimune's despair has been aggravated. It can be seen that Liu Yu really doesn't worry about Japan's backlash in the future.
Based on previous experience, Tokugawa Yoshimune believes that Liu Yu is very accurate in seeing things. Now he is so sincere in selling guns and cannons. Originally, he thought he was just showing despair, but after the meeting, he was really desperate.
After the two agreed on some important follow-up issues, the meeting ended. However, Liu Yu could not leave immediately for the time being. The opening of Osaka was the first time for a young lady to get married, and this matter had to be handed over to Abe Masafuku, who was considered capable and loyal by Tokugawa Yoshimune.
Some subsequent details still required Abe Masafuku and Liu Yu to communicate, and try to satisfy both parties.
After the meeting, Tokugawa Yoshimune summoned Abe Masafuku.
Before officially appointing him as the Osaka Castle Representative and the General Manager of the Customs of the Port Opening, Tokugawa Yoshimune had a very in-depth exchange with Abe Masafuku about the laws after the opening of the port.
Abe Masafuku believed that at the beginning of the opening of the port, there was no experience and lack of time, and it was temporarily impossible to organize a monopoly system.
Merchants should be allowed to trade spontaneously first, and after becoming familiar with the opening of the port trade, the shogunate would select suitable big merchants and organize a stock exchange.
The so-called stock exchange is similar to a joint-stock monopoly. One company is called a stock exchange, and a stock exchange means a partner. That is, several companies form a partnership to buy out the monopoly rights of a certain trade product, so that the shogunate can collect profits.
Abe Masafuku's idea is to let merchants compete widely, and the winner takes all. The shogunate will grant the winner privileges and strengthen the monopoly.
In the early stage of competition, it is easy to summarize the laws of the market. The shogunate can also personally participate in it to see what makes money and invest in it to make a fortune.
In view of the problem of gold and silver prices, Abe Masafuku suggested that the compensation should be paid in silver as much as possible this time, and the shogunate is ready to hoard gold. Wait until the gold price rises and then sell it to arbitrage.
The previous sea merchants have used the price difference of gold and silver for arbitrage more than once, and Japan has experience in this regard. It could be controlled before, but now that it is completely out of control, it is better for the shogunate to go directly and make money by itself.
Since the shogunate is determined to use tariffs to fill the fiscal deficit, and there is really no better way to fill the fiscal deficit, Abe Masafuku can only implement the will of the shogun.
On the one hand, from the perspective of public affairs, Abe Masafuku believed that opening a port was not necessarily a bad thing for Japan. He had his own experience in reforming the Fukuyama Domain and his own understanding of the economy.
On the other hand, from the perspective of family and selfishness, he, as the Osaka Castle Representative, could only temporarily take charge of the opening of the port. If he could do a good job, do it perfectly, and make the shogunate have money to spend, the Abe clan would definitely increase its fiefdom in the future, and would be one step closer to the center of the shogunate.
Now is the right time to collude with Liu Yu to satisfy the shogunate and Dashun. This is the first test of whether he can continue to work as the Osaka Castle Representative.
Tokugawa Yoshimune did not tell Abe Masafuku about the content of the secret agreement between him and Dashun, but only talked about the idea of future fiscal revenue. As the Osaka Castle Representative, he just needed to collect the money as soon as possible.
Everything has its positive and negative sides.
The more money collected from import tariffs, the more gold and silver will flow out of Japan.
But the outflow of gold and silver in Japan is something that politicians have to consider, such as the late Arai Shiraishi. Now, the shogunate, which has decided to rely on tariffs and monopolies to enrich its finances, can no longer find a politician to make decisions.
A few days later, Liu Yu was about to leave by boat. The day before he went to Shimonoseki to exchange the treaty, Abe Masafu came to see him and discussed some details such as tariffs, management, and judicial power after the opening of the port.
In terms of the general direction, it is necessary to negotiate with Tokugawa Yoshimune first.
For small details, special clerks are needed to discuss.
These issues, which are not big or small, are the guiding direction for the future opening of the port, and the identities of both parties are relatively suitable.
After the two sides met, Abe Masafu introduced himself first.
Liu Yu habitually asked Abe Masafu how he reformed the financial problems of his domain when he was the lord of the domain.
From a person's policy, one can roughly judge a person's economic trend. Under the feudal system of Japan, many domains were constantly trial and error, and various strange policies emerged one after another. Such details can be used to make negotiations and exchanges have a clear mind.
Abe Masafu then roughly talked about his ideas for presiding over the reform.
Control the population, limit the age of marriage, strictly implement the eldest son inheritance system, and have the younger brother serve as a servant to the older brother, so as to ensure that the land is not completely fragmented, so that the people have a certain ability to resist famine.
At the same time, for the fragmented peasant land, if the eldest son does not have the conditions to ensure that the land is not too fragmented, the wealthy merchants and wealthy farmers are allowed to merge.
Although in view of the dispute between Tokugawa Yoshimune and Tokugawa Muneharu, Abe Masafuku verbally supported Tokugawa Yoshimune's frugality order and opposed Tokugawa Muneharu's statement that "encouraging the consumption of the food and salary class can promote the economy". But in fact, Abe Masafuku supported Tokugawa Muneharu's line in his heart.
The Abe family has always been committed to entering the core of the shogunate, and many figures have emerged. In the Shimabara Rebellion, Abe Masatsugu dared to act first and report later, and took the initiative to take responsibility and asked the various domains to prepare for military suppression; after the Black Ship Incident, it was Abe Masahiro of the Abe family who signed the Japan-US Treaty.
If you want to enter the core, you can't avoid scheming, relationships, and gifts, and the financial situation has always been difficult. There was no more money to be made from the peasants, so they could only think of getting some from the wealthy merchants and farmers. Therefore, the economic policy tended to support industry and commerce, allow wealthy farmers to merge and operate under the premise of ensuring the eldest son inheritance system and late marriage system, and rely on the consumption capacity of the samurai class to activate the economy.
Abe Masafuku gave a general introduction, and Liu Yu defined Abe Masafuku in his heart.
On the Dashun side, because of the cultural genes inherited from Confucianism, they were naturally close to the petty bourgeoisie fantasy represented by Simons, and later generations continued to continue. In terms of culture, they were naturally close to the petty bourgeoisie. Most people did not like the cold and rational scientific society, and of course they hated capitalism.
In this era, from He Xinyin to Huang Zongxi to Yan Yuan and Li Zhen, they all tried to restore the past, force the existing productivity back into the old production relations, and return to the perfect agricultural patriarchal pastoral idyll, the well-field system under benevolent rule, and the patriarchal system of handicraft workshops and guilds covered with warmth.
On the Japanese side, they may be very close to Malthus's set.
Japan has a small land area, and the eldest son inherits the family property. As in "The Ballad of Narayama", when people get old, they are thrown into the mountains.
If there is no invasion by external forces, and the country continues to develop on its own, Malthusianism will probably prevail during the transition period between feudalism and capitalism.
Abe Masafuku's population policy is one aspect of this.
Another is Malthus's famous "third party necessity theory", which will definitely be promoted in Japan, a country where samurai occupy the dominant power.
The so-called third party necessity theory means that the money from the sale of all goods by factory owners must be higher than the wages paid to workers and the cost of equipment wear and raw materials, after all, they have to make money.
This will lead to overproduction, because the total price of goods must be higher than wages. What if they can't sell them? This requires a third class.
This class does not produce, but only consumes. For example, samurai, nobles, samurai servants... Their existence can avoid economic crises caused by overproduction.
Therefore, the existence of feudal aristocrats and feudal rentiers must be ensured in order to develop industry...
This is like it was tailor-made for Japan.
If there had not been the invasion of Western forces, and Japan had evolved on its own, and Japan was locked in by the Dashun, unable to expand outward, and unable to abandon the samurai, it would probably have evolved into this form and derived such a theory.
Just based on what Abe Masafuku mentioned about his reforms in Fukuyama Domain, this trend is already very serious, but it lacks a systematic theory.
Liu Yu thought, this is a perfect theory to fool Japan. Merchants like it, samurai like it, and as for farmers, from Shimonoseki to here, they have stopped having one or two children.
Of course, Dashun also likes it. The "third party class" in Japan is really important to Dashun at this time, and they are counting on them to buy goods. Indeed, it can promote the development of industry and commerce, but it promotes Dashun's industry and commerce, not necessarily Japan's.
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