Rebirth of the Official Business Route

Chen Jing came to Hong Kong this time to evaluate the possible impact of the economic crisis in Southeast Asia on the disk player market. She postponed it for a day and walked with Zijia from Huishan. , The swarming golden crocodiles launched a third wave of fierce attacks on the Thai baht, and the Thai baht exchange rate broke through the previous low on the same day.

Chen Jing was still arguing with Ge Yinjun in Hong Kong to adjust the business of overseas companies to cope with the coming economic recession in Southeast Asia, but she did not expect that the economic crisis would unfold in full swing and brew into a storm within a lightning-fast time. Novel chapters are updated the fastest

Starting from Aida Electronics, from July 11th to 19th, a total of 15 red-chip listed companies in the Hong Kong stock market released early warning information that they would adjust their performance expectations due to the economic recession in Southeast Asia. Prompted the Hong Kong stock market to fluctuate downward.

Since mid-June, the Hang Seng Index has hit record highs ten times. It hit a high of 17,000 points in early July and then fell back slightly, but it is still hovering around the 16,000-point line. Before July 11, most of the financial media predicted that the market will undergo a short-term adjustment, but most people still believe that the market will continue to rise after the adjustment.

Fifteen red-chip listed companies controlled by domestic capital, which can almost be said to act in unison, announced the early warning news, which was naturally extremely harsh to Hong Kong investors. Fiction novel chapters are updated the fastest

Hong Kong Economic Journal, Hong Kong Economic Daily, Ming Pao and other financial media have published articles to varying degrees accusing the collective warning incident of red-chip stocks that someone is behind the scenes and suspected of manipulating the stock market. The Liaison Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China demonstrated and protested, and also asked the United Stock Exchange to investigate the inside story behind the scenes.

It's just that the planned sit-in protest has not yet had time to proceed, on the early morning of the 20th. The Central Bank of Thailand suddenly announced through Thailand's national TV station that it would abandon the 14-year fixed exchange rate mechanism that has been pegged to the US dollar. Implement a managed floating exchange rate system, and also announced an increase in the domestic baht interest rate from 10.5% to

At that moment, Zhang Ke seemed to be able to hear the crazy cheers of countless currency speculators in the Peninsula Hotel-Ye Jianbin and the others did cheer too-the opposite was the tragic wail of the slaughtered sheep! Among them, the most miserable howls are probably the Bank of Thailand and the people of Thailand.

Of course, Zhang Ke doesn't have the sympathy that floods the catastrophe. They themselves are poaching mixed with countless currency speculations. There will always be some emotion.

When Singapore's international currency trading market opened, the exchange rate of the Thai baht broke through 31 like mercury leaking out of the ground, and fell by more than 13% in an instant, which was shocking.

Of course, as long as the Thai government does not announce the abolition of the baht, the baht will have the value supported by its national economy. At this moment, there is an irrational impulse in the ** of the exchange rate...

certainly.

A huge amount of purchase orders also poured in immediately...

this moment. Sweat dripped from Ye Jianbin's forehead.

They established a short position of 7 billion baht in the early stage, and the mercury leaked in the blink of an eye, making their profit as high as 840 million baht.

At this time, the buy order was delivered, and the previous accumulated profit was close to nearly 40 million US dollars.

To deliver or not to deliver? Ye Jianbin subconsciously glanced at Zhang Ke.

Zhang Ke looked at Nick Leeson's side, but he wanted to see the demeanor of the so-called top trader in this situation.

Although the Thai baht will experience several shocks in the coming year, the delivery period of the Thai baht forward contract accumulated in their short positions is mostly concentrated in September, and they must be closed before the delivery period.

before September. Is this moment the lowest point of the Thai baht against the US dollar? If the judgment is yes. Then it is necessary to decisively carry out the liquidation operation and keep the current fruits of victory. Otherwise, every time the Thai baht rebounds, some of their fruits of victory will be eaten away.

Nick Leeson's face was a little pale. At this time, his eyes looked bigger and brighter than usual, as if he was a cheetah that had licked blood. The computer screen displayed the real data of foreign exchange trading markets in Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong and other places. Ye Jianbin , Zhang Ke did not intervene aloud, he firmly operated in accordance with his beliefs. Short positions and funds are scattered in dozens of secret accounts. He has to give a series of instructions to the operator over the phone, including opening and closing positions, with different quantities and account codes, mixed with spot contracts, forward contracts and Ye Jianbin was dazzled by the small amount of futures contract transactions, and could only roughly feel that Nick Leeson was still increasing his position at this moment.

I can still clearly hear the noise from the phone. Traders are running and shouting hysterically. This moment is a paradise for short sellers and a hell for bulls. The government will resist forcefully, and a small number of speculators who cannot be recognized are dead and in debt. They are screaming, and the creepy screaming can be clearly heard from the command phone.

During this period of time, it was only enough for Du Fei to understand the knowledge of foreign exchange trading. It was very difficult for him to ignore the interference from the noise on the phone and follow Nick Leeson's instructions, let alone understand the instructions given by Nick Leeson in an instant. intention.

Generally speaking, a novice trader may spend more than half a year just passively accepting orders... Zhang Ke put his hand on his shoulder lightly, and he has a specialization in the art. As a top trader in the industry, Nick Leeson has his own Forcing himself to keep up with his reasoning is asking for trouble.

Ye Jianbin was inconvenient to intervene in Nick Leeson's order to his traders. He just looked at Zhang Ke. At this time, he would rather believe in Zhang Ke's genius-like keen intuition; if Zhang Ke didn't speak, he just kept silent.

Nick Leeson took advantage of the gap to turn around and explain to Zhang Ke and Ye Jianbin, I thought there would be a wave of shocks today. This moment is not the exchange rate that the Thai baht can balance in the short term...

Zhang Ke nodded and said, You are a professional, do we have other options besides trusting you? He smiled. Turned around and walked out. Ye Jianbin stared at the screen reluctantly for a few more seconds before he and Du Fei followed Zhang Ke out.

After taking the elevator back to the suite on the 28th floor, Zhang Ke joked with Ye Jianbin, Do you want to test your pulse?

Ye Jianbin felt his heart tighten in the operating room just now, and when he watched the exchange rate fall vertically, he felt a little convulsed. If the heart function was not good, he might induce a heart attack on the spot; A reminder. The finger touches the pulse, which is abnormally fast, similar to the feeling after running a thousand meters.

The easiest way to profitably speculate on the baht is to short sell the baht in the spot foreign exchange market.

It is expected that the Thai baht will depreciate against the U.S. dollar at some point in the future, and a large amount of Thai baht will be borrowed from relevant channels in advance, and the Thai baht will be sold in the foreign exchange spot market to obtain U.S. dollars. After the depreciation of the Thai baht. Then buy Thai baht with US dollars from the foreign exchange spot market and return it. The remaining dollars after repayment of debt and interest constitute speculative income.

The trading method of foreign exchange spot contracts is actually similar to the above process, except that the transaction volume is enlarged through the leverage effect, also known as margin trading.

In addition to profiting from speculating on the Thai baht in the foreign exchange spot trading market, another common way to attack a country’s currency market is to borrow Thai baht forward contracts from investment banks and sell them. You can make a profit.

Trading forward contracts is similar to trading futures contracts. But before the crisis came, there was a lack of takeover of futures contracts. Trading volumes were extremely thin, and currency speculation was minimal, except for short positions that could be established three to five months in advance.

A more complicated speculative method is to short-sell Thai bonds, stocks and stock futures in the Thai stock market first, and then short-sell the Thai baht in the foreign exchange spot and forward markets, and double profit when the Thai baht depreciates and the Thai stock market collapses.

Quantum Fund, Tiger Fund and other main hot funds attacking the Thai baht are fully prepared, and they are bound to establish a large number of short positions through various trading methods at the same time, and finally completely defeat the defense of the Thai government through spot, spot contracts and forward contracts.

Zhang Ke and the others withdrew funds late, and only had time to establish a short position of nearly 7 billion baht in spot contracts and forward contract transactions.

After the Thai government gave up its defense, it was a carnival for the bears.

On July 20th, as of 4:00 p.m. in the Singapore international currency trading market, the exchange rate of the Thai baht against the U.S. dollar once broke through 32.1. Nick Leeson decisively closed his position at the exchange rate of 32, and the cumulative profit was as high as 54 million U.S. dollars.

After the Thai government gave up resistance, the central bank of Thailand will not continue to take orders in the foreign exchange market within the tolerable range. After the short positions are closed, the financial giants lose their targets on the Thai baht line. However, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia, at the beginning The country that is known as the Four Filial Piety in Asia together with Thailand will naturally become a new prey.

It is a pity that the risks inherent in the violent fluctuation of the Thai baht and the Southeast Asian countries have greatly increased the offshore lending interest of the bank's local currency to punish those European and American investment banks that lend money to currency speculation-investment banks lend currency to speculation to collect commissions for profit , but in the period of strict supervision, they have to lend money from the central bank of the money-making country to ensure their own money adequacy ratio, and the interest rate on lending has increased significantly, and the cost of these investment banks for speculation has also increased-plus currency speculation is surging As a result, the demand for contract transactions has increased sharply, and the currency holdings of European and American foreign banks in Southeast Asia are not unlimited. It is inevitable that they will be forced to greatly reduce the leverage ratio of contract transactions and increase commissions.

At this time, international currency speculation can almost only be forced to short-sell transactions in the spot market, but the blood spilled by the initial victory of the Thai baht will attract more profit-seeking.

There is no leverage tool or the leverage tool has been greatly weakened. It is not unexpected that the attack power of other Southeast Asian countries will be weakened. It is just that the profit margin shared by each currency speculator has dropped sharply.

Zhang Ke can only rejoice that they have established a short position of 500 billion Indonesian rupiah in advance, otherwise the good thing of swallowing more than 54 million US dollars in profits can only be enjoyed this time.

The only pity is that the period of the largest depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah was after the first round of financial turmoil—the Indonesian rupiah had the largest depreciation in the currency markets of Southeast Asian countries. At that time, Indonesia had abandoned the fixed exchange rate system. After Indonesia abandons the fixed exchange rate system, the Bank of Indonesia will no longer enter the foreign exchange market to take orders, and short positions in forward contracts cannot be established. Most of the short positions in the Indonesian rupiah forward contract they established in their hands are futures. Since the delivery period cannot extend to the end of this year, it is natural that the largest depreciation cannot be grasped.

I can only take a small bite on the fattest one, and it cannot be said that it is not regrettable; of course, Zhang Ke will not let this layer of regret deep in his heart show.

After the Thai baht spot and forward contracts were closed, the total amount of remaining funds in the secret account was as high as 150 million U.S. dollars, but this time the funds were mixed with tens of billions of international hot money, how much could be gained, I don't know.

July 20. The Asian financial turmoil officially set off a raging wave in Thailand, 18 days later than the history known to Zhang Ke, but after all, it followed the irreversible trend of history. On the Internet in Binanda, Hong Kong, you can see Thailand. FX and other financial markets are bleak...

Thailand's stock market and property market collapsed. The economy is in full recession. Zhang Ke read a report. The Thai stock exchange market broke out from the economic crisis. In three years, a total of 77 listed companies were forced to withdraw. No company was able to successfully list on the Thai stock exchange market. The largest oil company owed 27 billion US dollars in foreign debt .

The violent chaos in Thailand's financial market has also affected the entire Asian financial market. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index continued to fluctuate and decline some time ago, and fell 480 points in one day. The editorial articles of Ming Pao and Hong Kong Economic Times changed their conspiracy theory positions a few days ago. Write an article predicting that a large-scale Southeast Asian economic crisis is rapidly brewing. Financial institutions such as Guofu Investment have also lowered their expectations for the market outlook...

In the period of history that Zhang Weide experienced, the economic crisis in Southeast Asia has erupted for almost a month. The Hang Seng Index is still trying to hit a record high, so that international speculators have enough time to open a large number of short positions in Hong Kong stocks and futures markets after they have ravaged Southeast Asian countries. Surprisingly, during that time, Hong Kong Finance The media completely ignored the scale of the Southeast Asian economic crisis and its possible impact on the Hong Kong capital market. It became a cash machine for international speculators—even if they repelled these international speculators in the final battle—a large number of Hong Kong investors failed to get out of it.

Ye Jianbin said that he wanted to open a bottle of red wine to celebrate. Zhang Ke looked at his watch, and it was only four o'clock in the afternoon. He ignored Ye Jianbin and said that Tang Jing and Sheng Xia had been shopping outside for a long time, and he and Du Fei went to pick them up.

The Peninsula Hotel is located in the heart of the Tsim Sha Tsui area on the Kowloon Peninsula. It enjoys the intoxicating beauty of Victoria Harbour. It is surrounded by famous, commercial and entertainment centers. Both sides of Nathan Road are full of shopping malls, shops, and Temple Street in Yau Ma Tei. In Twelve Young Boys in Temple Street starring Andy Lau, Zhang Ke took Tang Jing to the open-air night market in Temple Street three times.

Tang Jing and Sheng Xia stayed at the Peninsula Hotel for ten days. Even if Zhang Ke and Du Fei couldn't spare time to accompany them during the day, they were not lonely.

Talking to Tang Jing on the phone, she and Sheng Xia were walking from the Star Ferry Pier to the Peninsula Hotel accompanied by Fu Jun. Zhang Ke put down the phone, left Ye Jianbin behind, and went downstairs with Du Fei to the teahouse in the lobby of the Peninsula Hotel to wait for Tang Jing Jing and Shengxia are back. Ye Jianbin wanted to celebrate with Nick Leeson and his two assistants at night.

Zhang Ke helped Tang Jing and Sheng Xia order drinks and snacks at the teahouse. It took them more than ten minutes to walk from the Star Ferry Pier. Du Fei must have been shocked by today's scene, always showing a thoughtful look, a little taciturn.

Zhang Ke smiled faintly and asked Du Fei: Do you want to go to the exchange to experience it? At such a moment, some people always go to heaven, and some people fall to hell...

The mobile phone on the coffee table vibrated, Zhang Yan made a call, Tang Jing and the others were about to arrive at the hotel, and asked where he and Du Fei were waiting for them. When you walk into the hotel lobby, you can see me waving to you! Zhang Ke said with a smile, Or do you want me to come out to greet you in person?

what!

But at this moment, Zhang Ke heard Tang Jing's sharp and terrified cry on the phone. Not knowing what happened, Zhang Ke ran out of the lobby.