Rebirth of the Official Business Route

After staying in Central for a while, Zhang Ke and the others took the ferry to the Peninsula Hotel. Ye Jianbin and Nick Leeson stayed at the Peninsula Hotel for two months without moving.

At the beginning of August, the Indonesian government gave up resistance, and the Indonesian rupiah fell sharply. They had a good meal again. The short position of 500 billion rupiah, under the calm command of Nick Leeson, once again gained more than 50 million US dollars. Float.

Zhang Ke’s room at the Peninsula Hotel was still reserved. When they arrived there, Sun Shangyi and Ge Mingde had been waiting there for a while, plus Nick Leeson, the five partners also rarely showed up together at the Peninsula Hotel. Novel chapters are updated the fastest

Zhang Ke opened the door and came in. Sun Shangyi, Ge Mingde, and Nick Leeson all stood up. Zhang Ke couldn't take it anymore, pointed to the ice drinks in front of everyone on the wooden table, and said with a smile: You all have something to drink... Walking to the back of the bar, I took out two bottles of Carlsberg from the freezer, handed one to Ye Jianbin, and then came over to sit down, I heard that the weather in Hong Kong will be good these days. Last summer, it didn't rain for a few days...

Talk about the weather? Ge Mingde said with a smile, Then let's talk about the weather... Passed the folder in front of him to Zhang Ke, Look at this thing first, we can talk about the weather if we have nothing to do. gone.

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Zhang Ke smiled and said: I was thinking about going to the beach to swim, and I was planning on the plane... I'm just chatting with you for a while, and I'll leave later.

Ye Jianbin smiled. He didn't expect Zhang Ke to stay at the Peninsula Hotel at night. Xu Si returned to Hong Kong the day before yesterday. The records in the file folder are all confidential, and they will not buy hotel rooms-secret speculation in Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah for profit. Although everything is in line with the game plan, but this record is leaked to the Thai and Indonesian authorities, it is a A bad historical record - but some of the content was introduced by Ye Jianbin in the car, and many things were not hidden from Du Fei. However, for the sake of respect, Du Fei was not involved in the formal meeting.

Zhang Ke took the folder and flipped through it casually, counting it as a read.

Okay, I came here just to listen to your opinions, I'll study hard... Zhang Cole put the folder on the wooden table.

Except for Nick Leeson, everyone else tends to listen to Zhang Ke's opinion. He cherishes words like gold, and still wants others to attract others. Sun Shangyi shook his head and smiled, and said, Then invite Nick to introduce...

Speak Chinese or English? Nick Leeson asked.

I have to admit that Nick Leeson's Mandarin level has improved rapidly in a short period of time, but Zhang Ke has never heard of the term Chinese. The tone is still a little weird.

Zhang Ke said: You should speak in your native language... Hearing Ye Jianbin complain in the car just now,

In order to learn Chinese, Nick Leeson insisted on speaking in Chinese, which tortured him for two or three months. Besides Gong Cheng, Ye Jianbin fined him a hundred dollars for every English sentence he spoke in private.

Then I will speak in Chinese, Nick Leeson introduced the development of the current financial turmoil in Mandarin with his weird tone. The fat and fleshy bones of the four filial pieties in Asia have almost been gnawed to the point where there are only bones left. It can't arouse the interest of financial giants, those small countries. There is not even scum left, but the flocking peripheral The scale of hot money is getting bigger and bigger, I am afraid that no one can stop the further spread of the financial turmoil; in Asia, only two giant dragons, half a giant dragon and four small dragons are left as fat prey...

The two giant dragons probably refer to China and Japan, and the half dragon refers to? Zhang Ke looked at Ye Jianbin suspiciously, and Ye Jianbin explained: India...

Oh India. Can India be considered half a dragon?

India's foreign exchange reserves are not high. However, their foreign debt levels are lower, which is also the key factor for India to avoid direct shocks in the 1997 financial turmoil; European and American investment banks can provide very little Indian ruble currency for speculative transactions. There are so many funds competing for it. Although it can be clearly predicted that the Indian ruble will depreciate significantly in the next year, it is impossible to establish a short position in the Indian ruble, and there is no secret channel to launder money into financial markets such as securities and futures in India. Short positions, everything is for nothing.

At this time, local banks in India will even lend Indian rubles to local Indian companies, not to mention foreign-funded companies with unknown sources of mortgage dollars.

Under the chairmanship of Xu Xueping, the Donghai Provincial Government, together with large state-owned enterprises in the province, the Department of Communications, Xiangxuehai, Xinguang Paper and other enterprise consortiums, planned nearly a year in advance and borrowed a total of nearly 2 billion from Japanese financial institutions. The behavior of the yen equivalent to the US dollar can be called the big short of this financial speculation in the true sense.

This unsecured government credit loan will earn a huge profit of eight to one billion U.S. dollars at a time, enough for several high-speed roads in the East Sea Lions, and it can also stimulate the demand in the province; I just don’t know how much will fall into the pockets of individuals. It is also impossible.

The depreciation of the yen is also the general trend, and Zhang Ke seems to be able to hear the howls of Japanese banks that provide loans because of it in the near future.

Of course, even if Xu Xueping leaves Donghai, the Donghai provincial government will not admit that they have speculative intentions.

Zhang Ke nodded and listened to Nick Leeson's introduction.

Following the huge scale of hot money to hunt the currencies of small countries, there are only some meat and bones left in the mouth.

After the financial turmoil in Southeast Asia, not only the governments of Asian countries have formulated policies to limit foreign exchange speculation against their own currencies, but even European and American countries have become vigilant. This restriction is extensive, and even the financial department of Aida Electronics is greatly restricted in foreign exchange hedging transactions in the name of legally exporting electronic products, and has to bear most of the exchange rate losses.

It is very difficult for large-scale hot money to open a large number of foreign exchange short positions in the foreign exchange market. During the buffer period of the financial turmoil, more speculation occurs in the foreign exchange spot market.

Zhang Ke and his $140 million additional hedge fund built positions in Thai baht and Indonesian rupiah nearly a month in advance, taking advantage of the core impact of the first financial turmoil, and accumulated a floating profit of nearly 110 million U.S. dollars; however, 7 After the Thai baht position was closed on March 20, the balance of funds in multiple accounts reached 160 million US dollars. Following the international hot money force, they continued to attack the currency systems of Southeast Asian countries. In the past month, the harvest was less than 20 million US dollars.

From this point, we know that after the severe restrictions on foreign exchange speculative transactions and the influx of hot money on a larger scale, speculation is in distress.

On the one hand, governments of various countries restrict speculative transactions on their own currencies. On the other hand, the scale of short-selling hot money gathered in Asian financial markets is increasing, and the trading opportunities for hunting for floating profits are further diluted.

Of course, in a month's time, an additional profit of 20 million US dollars. It is also a pretty good gain.

According to the information Zhang Ke has learned, during the Asian financial turmoil that lasted for more than a year, the profit ratio of most hedge funds only fluctuated between 30% and 70%. Financial giants with large amounts of funds secretly building positions, they have various channels to the financial markets of various countries. But compared to the scale of their mobilized funds, the floating interest ratio is not high.

The financial turmoil will spread further. At this time, if you can correctly judge the next attack direction of the financial turmoil, you will be able to keep up with the pace of financial giants and obtain greater profit opportunities while other peripheral hot money is hunting around aimlessly. .

Excluding India, on the land of Asia. Pretty fat prey is left. That is, two giant dragons and four small dragons.

Speaking of which, in 1997, the scale of the mainland's foreign trade was only comparable to that of South Korea. However, the financial market in the mainland has only opened a very small gap to the outside world. They want to get in through various methods of money laundering. It will not be successful in two or three years. Even if the renminbi depreciates actively, the financial giants will not have a chance to make a profit. .

Southeast Asia is Japan's largest capital export destination, and the financial turmoil broke out in Southeast Asia. It is bound to drag Japan into recession. Japan's financial market was in turmoil during this period, but Japan's economy is so large that its US dollar foreign exchange reserves are the largest in the world. Could the Yen Be Prey for Financial Giants?

Then Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea and other Asian tigers are left. The economic scale is moderate. They are all very high, and they can't stay out of the financial turmoil in Southeast Asia.

Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong or South Korea? Nicholson said in his weird Mandarin, Hong Kong had a great opportunity before...

Don't think about Hong Kong, Zhang Ke said bluntly, Since it's been so long, we don't want to hide some things from you anymore. The four of us have a deep relationship with Aida Electronics...

Ah? It was with the help of Nick Leeson that Ye Jianbin successfully laundered one billion Hong Kong dollars into multiple secret accounts opened in the Cayman Islands. No matter how slow Nick Leeson was, he knew that these funds came from Those transferred from Hong Kong, Ye Jianbin, Sun Shangyi and others all have firm confidence in the short market outlook. If they really want to short the Hong Kong financial market, the funds can be used to establish a short position on the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index. Aida Electronics has a very close relationship, and said in surprise, You have done something that annoyed those financial giants!

It is impossible for us to short Hong Kong's financial market, whether from a public or private standpoint, Zhang Ke said with a smile, Well, we also admit that we have done something that annoyed those financial giants. Borderless, which itself is a false statement...

Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves are as high as US$80 billion, and over the years, Hong Kong's main capital export destination has long shifted from Southeast Asia to the mainland, and the economic growth momentum of the mainland shows no sign of recession. It is unrealistic to completely break the Hong Kong dollar's linked exchange rate system; Nick Leeson said that the most annoying thing for financial giants is the active ebb of Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index in the past month.

The active ebb of the Hang Seng Index started with the collective warning of red-chip stocks that Aida Electronics announced on July 11. In just over a month, those financial giants lost an excellent target.

Anyone with a discerning eye can see that this is the central government's long-standing vigilance against the financial turmoil in Southeast Asia. Of course, Nick Leeson can also see the looming shadow of the central government behind Ye Jianbin, Zhang Ke and others at this time.

How can hot money have no borders? Nick Leeson smiled. He also knows that this is a simple truth. Huge capital is bound to be entangled with complicated political backgrounds. Of course, they will not pursue it too deeply The funder’s financial background, “The Hang Seng Index has taken the initiative to retreat to the level of mid-1996, and it is no longer a good goal. Not only is it not a good goal, I think it has caused some people quite painful...” When Southeast Asia The financial turmoil officially began to spread from Thailand, and the red-chip stocks collectively warned. The financial media in Hong Kong, which is controlled and influenced, is naturally unable to pursue the responsibility of whether there is any insider information; there are a lot of attempts to raise the Hang Seng Index again, but they have not had time to establish short positions. The hot money in the position was trapped by the Hong Kong stocks that suddenly took the initiative to ebb, and it was difficult to get out. At this time, the trading volume of the Hang Seng stock index futures was also extremely sluggish, which was not enough to establish a large number of short positions.

Except for Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea, which one is the next active target of those financial giants? Hearing Nick Leeson's introduction, Ge Mingde asked.

In the past, Hong Kong should be the main target of the next wave of attacks. Right now, the possibility of Hong Kong being actively attacked has been greatly reduced. South Korea, Zhang Ke looked at his watch, afraid that Xu Si would wait for him too long, so he said the answer directly, South Korea, instead of hunting around aimlessly, we try to establish a short position on the Korean won during this time...

Although it is very difficult to establish short positions at this stage, as long as the preparation time is long enough, it is still possible to establish some, at least it is better than hunting around in the spot foreign exchange market.