Rebirth: The Financial Giant

At the annual shareholders meeting, Lu Ming spoke eloquently about the question about crude oil raised by Brother 8000: As for the fundamentals, when the oil price is at $60, you can talk about the fundamentals like this, it can still be talked about at $70, or even at $80. If you can take it out and talk about it, there is no problem.”

Lu Ming changed the conversation again and added: But if you look at it from a trader's point of view, $80 is a watershed, because if the price goes up, the variables in it are not the known fundamentals. Is it a variable? Is it capital expenditure? If you follow this logic, you can make your price go up indefinitely, and if the market peaks and you need a sudden variable, who would it be?”

At this time, Brother 8000 replied silently in his heart: How do I know?

Lu Ming looked around the audience and said, I think the answer is the Middle East, and furthermore, Sate. In other words, if you ask that oil prices are above $80 per barrel, the variables involved are geography plus Zhengzhi, especially Zhengzhi. This factor is very difficult to determine. For example, when did you talk to Sart in North America? How? What about the situation in the Middle East?

Note that when oil prices hit $87 in October last year, the North American side was trying to suppress oil prices. At that time, can you think about the Kasuki incident and the pressure on oil prices? But it was just the second day of the Kasuki incident. Oil prices have peaked.

When all the attendees heard Lu Ming talking about this incident, they couldn't help but remember that on October 2, 2018, the famous Shater Times reporter Gamal Kasuki disappeared mysteriously in Istanbul, which caused international public opinion. intense attention.

Lu Ming followed his own train of thought and said: So, it is difficult to quantify the supply, gap, demand, growth or inventory, etc., as in the report, and you will find that this is not the case at all. If the prices on both sides are too low, such as If it falls below $40, $30 or even $20, then you don't need to consider any fundamentals, but other factors. From the current oil price, if it can rise above $80, then you need to consider factors such as geography and Zhengzhi. already.

“From my personal point of view, now for traders, it is not to judge how much oil prices rise or fall, but to really see who will intervene? Because in theory, if you follow the fundamentals, it can keep rising, You can squeeze your position and rise to the sky, but is your final opponent facing the market? Is it a balance sheet of supply and demand?”

Lu Ming, who questioned himself, continued: Of course not. In the energy market, the opponent you face is not the market, but North America, how did Sate and the others change, and the Kasuki incident? In the medium and long term, it will bring about another problem, that is, if you rely too much on the energy security of a certain party, and try to use this energy security to go beyond the structural transformation of energy, this is the wrong way.”

In the process of transforming energy issues to new energy, we cannot slap to death the complete negation of traditional energy, and we cannot leave it to others to help you control it, so energy security is very important, and you must keep me in your own hands, although The ultimate goal of the world is new energy, but there are huge hidden dangers in energy security in the middle process, so traditional energy has to be invested, and it can’t be said that it will die directly, which will cause energy security problems.”

Lu Ming nodded. After answering this question, Brother 8000 also sat down. After hearing this, Lao Yang couldn't help but nodded secretly, and said concisely: It's a big guy, a professional!

...

After about two minutes, the next questioner was a woman. She asked: ...Remember at last year's shareholders meeting, you said that the domestic capital market is really in the stage of recovery and the formation of leading companies. Today we see that many leading companies and blue-chip companies in the A-share market have reached record highs, how should we understand your point of view today after a lapse of one year?

Lu Ming crossed his arms on the documents on the desktop, and when he heard the question, he smiled and replied: It's the understanding of the track, this thing, the so-called leading company I want to describe is an industry cycle, generally speaking, the industry life cycle There are several stages to go through. For China, it should be said that starting from 2015 and 2016, the industrial life cycle of our country has started. The popular tracks such as new energy that we see now are the future direction of the industrial life cycle.

But there is a rhythm in the middle, and we must pay attention to this rhythm, an industry life cycle, the early stage of the industry is the formation period of the track, and then start to push the valuation, then the sought after bubble inflates, and then kill the valuation , and then leave the good ones alive and start taking value, which is a complete industry life cycle.”

If you look at the current stage in China? Probably since the establishment of Tiansheng Capital, the direction has already come out, and the track has also appeared, and this year we have started to take valuations, such as the technology stock track semiconductor. Beifanghua has reached a record high, the Ningde era of new energy has reached a record high, the biopharmaceutical industry has reached a record high, and the medical device industry has reached a record high, and so on.”

After the valuation phase is over, part of it must be digested. The dross is eliminated and the inferior products are eliminated to leave a truly powerful company. The expansion of the market value will truly take the value route. This is probably the way of thinking.

At this time, the female questioner couldn't help but ask another question: What about the current valuation? In the long run, does it mean that although the valuation of some emerging industries may be higher in the short term, they are still Long-term value holdings and investments?

Under normal circumstances, you can't continue to ask questions in the middle, but because you are a woman, everyone has given a certain tolerance.

But when many people in the industry heard what she said, especially the analysts of some analysis agencies, their eyes rolled inwardly. The first brother has already said so bluntly, and they are 100% sure and double affirmative. .

At this moment, Lu Ming paused for a moment, then said with a smile: How can I say this, this is a future direction, because we don't want to mislead people. We must deeply understand this cycle, for example, the one that started in North America in the 1990s. This round of the Internet is the most typical. At that time, you said that the Internet is the future, and you are absolutely right, but the Internet bubble in the millennium may have killed more than 99% of the companies with valuations.”

So it's hard to say whether the companies I just mentioned can finally break out of the siege. When the valuation stage was launched, the so-called tuyere came, and a little concept can be hyped up, chickens and dogs can rise to the sky, and there is a frenzy. But when you start killing valuations later, it's a brutal phase of elimination, and your company doesn't necessarily survive, that's the point.

For example, Yahoo was in its prime, what about now? And now Microsoft and Amazon have survived and become great companies in the eyes of today's people. You know Microsoft and Amazon now, but you are the one who died. I don't know, Yahoo is still famous, let alone anything else?

There are also examples in China. Renren was so beautiful back then. The peak market value was 9.4 billion US dollars. The 9.4 billion US dollars in that era was very exaggerated. Now we know that BAT survived and became a giant.

So only after the phase-out phase, who is worth your long-term holdings of Microsoft, Amazon, Fuji Xun and other companies may appear, but this may be very difficult for ordinary investors, you are sure to enter the Internet The era is over but your company is gone, in the future you are sure to enter the new energy era but your company may be gone.”

After the answer, all the participants in the room could not help nodding, and many people were also thinking.

More and more people have understood the logic of Tiansheng Capital's stud-style new energy since 2016, and determined the future direction, but they are not sure which company can advance to the finals in the valuation and elimination stage. The next Microsoft, Amazon.

Then I will sweep the entire track, and the primary market and the secondary market will work at the same time.

Looking at it now, people find that in the field of new energy, all companies that can be called famous have the shadow of Tiansheng Capital investment, especially the companies that are already at the top of the industry. Tiansheng Capital is a major shareholder, and its equity is always held. That's 20%, 30%.

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