Reborn as a tycoon in Hong Kong
Chapter 501 Prediction of gold price trend and ability inspection (two-in-one)
Before he knew it, it had been about ten days since Lin Baicheng and his sister Lin Qin came to Los Angeles.
At noon on July 9, Lin Baicheng took advantage of his lunch break to call Vivien Kelly, Doug Gordon, and Sun Yiyang to the villa in Beverly Hills.
Lin Baicheng took the three of them to the study to talk.
"I called you here today because I want to hear your views on the follow-up trend of international gold prices, and express your opinions boldly."
Since the international gold price rose to 280 US dollars per ounce, it has not risen or fallen sharply and has been fluctuating. However, the international gold price has fluctuated upward recently. Although it has not risen sharply, and sometimes it even adjusts to a small decline, the international gold price is still slowly rising to 290 US dollars per ounce. It is now close to the price of 300 US dollars per ounce. Not much further.
Lin Baicheng has invested heavily in long orders of international gold prices, so he has always been very concerned about the trend of international gold prices.
Regarding the follow-up trend of international gold prices, Lin Baicheng is much clearer than Vivien Kelly and others. He already knows it. The reason why he still asks is mainly to know how the three of them judge respectively, which can be regarded as an inspection of their abilities.
"Chairman, since you asked, let me tell you my opinion first."
Vivien Kelly, one of the three, was the first to speak out: "You know, I have always believed that oil prices will rise again, and the reason why oil prices will rise is most likely to be affected by geopolitics in the Middle East. And if my guess turns out to be true, then the international gold price will also benefit from this and rise accordingly. Therefore, in the medium to long term, the international gold price will continue to rise."
"As for the short term, I personally believe that the international gold price will launch a sprint towards 300 US dollars per ounce. It is currently unclear whether it can break through this price. However, I personally believe that regardless of whether it can break through the 300 US dollars per ounce price, the gold price will definitely hit the top and adjust. , there will be a small wave of decline.”
"This time, the international gold price has fluctuated at 280 US dollars per ounce for a long time. Therefore, there will definitely be support after the gold price adjusts to this price. The subsequent market will depend on whether this price can be supported. If it cannot be supported, then the gold price is completely It may fall back to US$250/ounce; conversely, if the price can be sustained at US$280/ounce, there will be a rebound and return to US$300/ounce.”
"As for whether the international gold price will fluctuate at US$300 per ounce in the future, continue to break upward, or adjust and fall again, I have no way to judge at the moment. I can only judge based on the trend and news at that time."
"Now that Vivien has said it, which one of you two comes first?"
Lin Baicheng nodded without making any judgment, but looked at Doug Gordon and Sun Yiyang.
"I'll go first, Chairman."
Doug Goldon said: "Because the company has a large investment in gold futures, I have conducted more in-depth research on the trend of international gold prices in recent months."
"First of all, the price of gold was due to the country's announcement in 1971 to withdraw from the Bretton Woods system and the decoupling of the U.S. dollar and gold. Since then, the price of gold has broken away from the official pricing model, and the price is determined by market supply and demand, which has led to a sharp rise in international gold prices."
"In 1973, due to the depreciation of the US dollar, countries rushed to buy gold. The price of gold rose to around US$100 per ounce, which was three times the original official price. By 1975, the price of gold had risen to a high of US$200 per ounce. At that time, the price of gold was already six times the official price.”
“Subsequently, due to the high inflation rate that led to the country’s economic recession, in order to calm the market’s speculative demand for gold, the Ministry of Finance announced the auction of part of the gold reserves, and the International Monetary Fund also took this action. As a result, gold was always absorbed by the enthusiastic subscription of purchase orders. , the price of gold began to adjust for more than a year, and at the lowest point it was adjusted to around US$100 per ounce. Compared with the high point, it was already cut in half.”
Lin Baicheng knows what Doug Golden is saying now. He didn't know this before he was reborn, but after he prepared to invest a lot of money to do long, he made a special effort to understand it, so he knew it clearly. But he knew what he knew, but he did not interrupt Doug Goldon, but let Doug Goldon continue speaking.
"In 1977 the year before last, the international gold price began to rebound significantly. In 1978 last year, it once again exceeded the previous high of US$200 per ounce."
"From the beginning of this year to the present, the price of gold has been fluctuating upward. Now it is not far from the price of 300 US dollars per ounce. It may even break through to this price in a few trading days."
"What we should note is that starting in May this year, the Ministry of Finance and the International Monetary Fund compressed the original gold auction plan. I think this is the fundamental reason why gold prices began to fluctuate upward in May."
"Nowadays, in the trend of international gold prices, it is obvious that bulls have the advantage and the orders are endless. So is it possible that the Ministry of Finance and the International Monetary Fund will completely abandon the gold auction plan? Once this happens, it will inevitably have a negative impact on the rise in gold prices. A huge plus.”
"Furthermore, since last month, I have found that the inflation situation in my country and European countries has worsened. In particular, my country's debt has increased significantly, and the economic situation is obviously getting worse."
"Let me give you a specific figure. In 1970, the country's debt was only US$400 billion, but now it is close to one trillion US dollars, more than doubled. Such a large debt will definitely undermine the market's confidence in the US dollar. , causing more funds to abandon the U.S. dollar and choose gold, thus driving up the international gold price."
"Therefore, in the absence of sudden huge positives and huge negatives, the international gold price is very likely to continue to rise in the medium to long term. US$300/ounce is not a high point at all, and the gold price may sprint towards US$400/ounce."
“The previous high of international gold prices last time was US$200/oz. This time, US$400/oz, even if it is not a peak, must be a great resistance level. Therefore, I think gold prices will continue to rise, but in the distance. It should be said that the closer the price of US$400/ounce is to US$3,890/ounce, the more prepared we must be to close out long orders, at least part of them.”
"Brown, you're the only one left."
After hearing this, Lin Baicheng looked at Sun Yiyang. Brown is Sun Yiyang's English name.
For now, Lin Baicheng is very satisfied with Doug Golden’s judgment. If there had not been the second oil crisis and the sudden Red Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the trend of international gold prices would have been consistent with Doug Golden’s judgment. Error, the error will not be too big.
The reason why the international gold price can rise to the highest point of more than 800 US dollars per ounce at the beginning of next year is because of the dual stimulation of the second oil crisis and the sudden Red Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. This is a sudden good thing, and no one can Predicted.
Therefore, Lin Baicheng is already very satisfied with Doug Golden's judgment, and he is also satisfied with the way in which Doug Golden spent time and in-depth research.
"Chairman, my research on international gold price trends is not as in-depth and thorough as Mr. Goldon's."
Sun Yiyang first admitted his shortcomings, and then said: "I put more energy on the U.S. stock market, looking for stocks that have good performance but were wrongly sold because of the bad market. Once these stocks wait for the market to improve, I think It's bound to react better than other stocks."
"Tell me about your judgment on the trend of gold prices."
Lin Baicheng heard this and gave a warning, reminding Sun Yiyang not to go off topic.
"Because I don't have much research, I can only talk about the short-term trend of gold prices."
Sun Yiyang explained, and then said: "In my opinion, the price of gold will definitely continue to strengthen in the short term and touch the price of 300 US dollars per ounce, but this is a new high price, and there will definitely be funds to open short orders at this price. At the same time, Funds that started buying long orders at the beginning of the year are likely to choose to close the long orders and make a profit.”
“Under the dual pressure of short selling and some bullish positions, gold prices will definitely undergo a wave of adjustments, and the first stage low of this wave of adjustments will be around $280 per ounce, and this price will definitely be supported for a period of time. "
"As for the subsequent trend, it must be judged based on real-time trends and news."
"So, Vivien and Brown, you two are about the same."
Lin Baicheng looked at Vivien Kelly and Sun Yiyang. He did not comment on their judgments, but said to Doug Golden: "Golden, you did a good job in your homework. I appreciate your way of doing things and will continue to work hard in the future.”
"Thank you to the chairman for your appreciation. I will definitely work harder in the future."
Doug Golden responded immediately, and the happiness in his heart was directly reflected by the smile on his face.
Although Vivien Kelly and Sun Yiyang's expressions remained unchanged, they felt unhappy in their hearts. They knew that Doug Gordon had taken advantage of the situation this time and that they were outcompeted.
Lin Baicheng said to the three of them: "Don't touch the long gold futures funds I gave you for the time being. Don't do any operations without my order."
"Chairman, please rest assured, we will not act beyond our authority."
Vivien Kelly and the three of them immediately made a statement. In fact, even if they wanted to do that, they couldn't do it. The operation of large amounts of money required the permission of Haruko Mouri. They alone couldn't do whatever they wanted.
As for Haruko Mouri, she has no operating authority.
Lin Baicheng continued to face the three of them: "As for the part of the funds you operate and the gold futures you purchased, you can liquidate them at any time you want. You can just make a decision after internal discussion. I only have one request for you. , that is, don’t use funds to short gold futures, I have no intention of hedging.”
The reason why Vivien Kelly and others were allowed to make the decision internally was because Lin Baicheng wanted to know what decision they would make if they learned about his attitude. This was related to Lin Baicheng's judgment of the three people's abilities.
Even if he makes less money as a result, Lin Baicheng can accept it. After all, Golden Fleece Offshore Company will manage a lot of funds in the future, and it is very important to examine the capabilities of senior management.
After hearing this, the three people expressed their understanding one after another.
After a while, Lin Baicheng asked Vivien Kelly and Sun Yiyang to go back to the company first, leaving Doug Gordon behind.
Lin Baicheng is ready to talk more with Doug Golden, whether it is about life or work.
Vivien Kelly and Sun Yiyang left with unchanged expressions, but their hearts were very uneasy. It was not a good thing for them that Doug Gordon was valued by Lin Baicheng.
For now, Vivien Kelly, Doug Gordon and Sun Yiyang are equal in level. The company has recruited several outstanding talents to manage a lot of money in recent months. It is true, but this time Lin Baicheng didn't call them over, which already showed that the three of them have more status in the heart of boss Lin Baicheng.
Golden Fleece Offshore Company currently does not have a CEO. Although Maori Haruko manages the company's daily affairs and supervises funds, they all know that Maori Haruko will not stay in the company for long and will leave sooner or later. At that time, a person must be appointed. A true CEO.
For this CEO, Vivien Kelly, Doug Goldon, and Sun Yiyang all covet him and want to be in the position. No one wants to hold a higher position and receive higher salary and commission.
Therefore, as long as there is an opportunity, Vivien Kelly, Doug Gordon, and Sun Yiyang will try their best to show their abilities and let the boss Lin Baicheng know that they are more capable, so that they are more likely to be appointed as the company's leaders in the future. CEO.
But this time, Doug Gordon is clearly better than Vivien Kelly and Sun Yiyang, so they would be happy.
Although Lin Baicheng didn't know very clearly about Xiao Jiujiu, he could guess a little bit. He didn't say anything about this. Firstly, he has no idea who should be in charge of the Golden Fleece Company. Secondly, whoever takes the position will definitely depend on their ability. He is currently doing the ability assessment work.
That night, Lin Baicheng received another international long-distance call from Tokyo from Mineryu Iwasaki.
Iwasaki Mineryu still asked about the international gold price. He said that he sold part of his long orders around 280 US dollars per ounce. Now he has made a loss. Seeing that the international gold price is not far away from the price of breaking through 300 US dollars per ounce that Lin Baicheng said. If it is far away, I asked Lin Baicheng if he would sell it near the price of 300 US dollars per ounce.
Bailong Commercial Co., Ltd. is also doing long gold futures orders, and the financing is still using Mitsubishi Bank's funds. Therefore, Lin Baicheng knows very well that Iwasaki Mineryu knows everything about the buying and selling situation here.
Therefore, without preparing to close the long orders of Bailong Commercial Club, Lin Baicheng said that he would wait and see, and had no idea of closing the long orders for the time being.
As for his views on the subsequent trend, Lin Baicheng only said that he could not be sure now. He could only take it one step at a time. After making a decision, he would inform Iwasaki Mineryu.
Faced with Lin Baicheng's answer, Iwasaki Mineryu expressed his gratitude regardless of whether he believed it or not. He would always keep an eye on the long financing orders of Bailong Commercial Co., Ltd. in Mitsubishi Bank. He would be satisfied if Lin Baicheng could notify him when the operation was carried out.
Even if you lose money by following Lin Baicheng's operation, it will be a loss for everyone, and Iwasaki Mineryu can accept it.
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