Reinventing the Millennium

Nokia's new CEO Simons suddenly led his team to China.

This immediately touched many nerves.

With less than a week left before the ITC issues its final ruling, Nokia’s move is too sensitive.

What does Simmons want to do? What does Nokia want to do?

They say they want to actively explore the Chinese market, they say they want to expand cooperation with China Mobile, they say they want to adjust the Asian regional structure, but after saying this, do you really want to see Fang Zhuo and surrender?

As soon as the news of Simmons' special plane taking off came out, the forces that belonged to IEC this time, including Goldman Sachs, Bridgewater Associates, Paulson, etc., all started to move to some extent.

Even Microsoft, which has initially reached cooperation with Nokia, is also paying attention to this matter.

What if the two sides make peace?

Microsoft is not willing to see such a result.

Paulson, the "King of Short Sellers", is investing heavily in shorting Yike this time. He firmly believes that the ITC ruling will bring a serious blow to Yike, and he firmly believes that Yike will encounter chain-reaction competition.

Yike started pre-sales on April 23. Although the data was not released this time like in previous years, these hidden things cannot be hidden. Paulson's team estimated from multiple data sources that there is a fairly similar range of numbers.

In the two weeks from the 23rd to May 7, the pre-sale range of Yike Mars3 is 400,000-500,000, and the pre-sale range of Selfy is 200,000-300,000.

What level of number is this?

Generally speaking, the pre-sale curve gradually goes down.

Paulson's team drew a comparison of data from the same period. The first-generation Mars in 2007 adopted a pre-sale model for a long time, with an average daily pre-sale number of 13,900 units.

The number of Mars3 in the same series is 28,600-35,700 units, which seems to be a lot of growth, but the pre-sales of Mars3 are more than the local pre-sales, the popularity of the Yike incident and the vigorous development of the global smartphone market. These three important factors have added value. The qualifying line must be at least 51,000 units.

As a comparison between the same system camp, the number of Samsung flagship Trump is 62,000, which is extremely excellent!

In 2007, the first-generation Mars was qualified if it exceeded one million.

Now, the third-generation Mars has not exceeded 18 million or is lower than market expectations.

After all, Paulson's team was a temporary piece together. Although its members also had dazzling resumes, he still communicated with more professional teams in the industry to improve higher-level and targeted data, and the conclusions they reached were very similar.

The pre-sale of Yiko's two models this time is far from expected in the global smartphone development.

Since the analysis, Paulson and others also analyzed the reasons for Yike's situation.

The ITC ruling, the lack of channels affected by patent litigation in Finland and the UK, the suspension of cooperation with Verizon, the second largest operator in the United States, consumer groups being attracted by competing products from the same camp, little change in the appearance of Mars 3, etc., have combined to create a pre-sale Not good.

The secondary market depends on future expectations. In the past, Yike was a pioneer in 3G smartphones, the world's first front-end smartphone, and could be imagined as the prototype of a new generation of Nokia. However, with the efforts of manufacturers such as Samsung, the industry has The level of competition has risen sharply by more than one level.

Coupled with the influence of various off-market factors, Yike's stock price is overvalued, and Yike's prospects are narrowing.

Paulson has a lot of information about Yike.

He has determined that after the ITC ruling is implemented in May, he will cooperate with a number of authoritative institutions to release data and conclusions, in order to maximize the suppression of Yike's stock price.

However, Nokia's sudden change at this juncture is very dissatisfying.

If Nokia and Yike suddenly reach a settlement, although the reality of Yike's pre-sale is still there, the bad news that has greatly affected the market sentiment will be disintegrated. How can this be tolerated?

Paulson has some European clients, but he is not very capable, but he knows that the last large transaction of Yi Ke was Goldman Sachs, and Goldman Sachs' habits...

During the previous subprime mortgage crisis, Paulson's hedge fund sought cooperation from Goldman Sachs when issuing junk bonds. He knew best about their pursuit of profits. Now that there is a fat man like Yike, he does not believe that Goldman Sachs will remain indifferent.

Similarly, he received some rumors that several other large institutions were also examining Yike's situation.

This is related to Fang Zhuo's deliberate short squeeze last time, but the more important thing is naked interests.

Paulson secretly contacted large organizations and tried his best to lobby them to take action. Regardless of whether Yike negotiated with Nokia or not, this trend must be broken.

Just as Nokia CEO Simons's private plane landed in Shanghai, Microsoft CEO Ballmer's private plane departed from Redmond, destined for Finland in Europe.

On May 10, Simmons didn't even go to the capital. After hurriedly meeting with China Mobile's senior executives in Shanghai, he still sought mediation from the leaders of Shanghai and knocked on the door to visit Mr. Fang.

Nokia is a major international brand and has always had strong influence and business cooperation in China.

At the same time, Shencheng leaders also believe that patent settlement may be an exploration for Yike to solve the problem.

Even so, Fang Zhuo still agreed to meet Simmons.

Simmons' full name is Rick Simmons. He is an American and very young. He is just fifty this year and is in his prime as a leader of a large group.

He has already made mental preparations for this trip to China, and plans to start from two directions: European litigation + US ITC ruling, to persuade Yike to negotiate a peace.

Simmons believes that this is the best way out at the moment. Nokia is indeed facing threats, but Yike is not resting easy. Samsung's latest changes are an important bargaining chip for peace talks.

And, he also brought a gift to Mr. Fang.

Simmons walked into Yike's president's office and handed Mr. Fang a document without even saying a word.

There was no small talk, just this action, which was very unconventional.

Fang Zhuo stretched out his hand to invite Simmons to sit down, took the document, and read it carefully.

The document was very thick, but he saw the clues after flipping through a few pages, and turned directly to the final conclusion - bypassing Yike and Apple's key touch patents through a combination of software and hardware.

"Mr. Fang, we should talk." Simmons took out such a gift, but his attitude was still sincere.

Fang Zhuo didn't speak immediately. He read through it for a while and then said after a while, "It's not finished yet. It's just theory and expectation?"

Simmons said politely: "It will be soon. No matter what, you should believe that Nokia still has strength. However, we still hope to focus our energy on products rather than these areas as soon as possible."

Fang Zhuo put down the document. This was Nokia's attempt to solve the problem from the key root causes. I don't know how long Simmons meant "soon", but this undoubtedly greatly weakened the power of the patents in the hands of Yike and Apple.

However, Apple and Yike's counterclaims against Nokia may speed up the process at the ITC.

Well, if this ruling is overturned, there will be new official industry measures, and counterclaims may not be implemented.

Fang Zhuo turned his thoughts around and mentally evaluated the changes coming from Nokia.

Major manufacturers are not sitting back and watching the rise of Yike without changes. For example, Apple has repeatedly released press conferences in advance, and Samsung has launched its flagship Trump. These are all chain changes.

The same is true for Nokia. They have the common problems of large groups, but they are also struggling to find a way out.

"Since it's a theory, let's wait for it to be implemented." Fang Zhuo was silent for a while, completely beyond Simmons's expected attitude.

Simmons said in shock: "Mr. Fang, please think carefully. When Yike's bullet is fired, we all know where it landed."

Fang Zhuo smiled slightly: "I still want to give it a try. You sue me and I sue you. It's fair, isn't it?"

"You, you, you..." Simmons believes that the development of the situation and the things they come up with can change the opponent's decision-making. At the very least, they should think more carefully, "Aren't you afraid? The swings of Samsung, ITC, and Google..."

Fang Zhuo smiled and said, "Don't be afraid."

Simmons subconsciously asked: "Why aren't you afraid?"

Fang Zhuo handed the document back the same way: "If you're not afraid, you're not afraid."

Simmons opened his mouth and fell into a long silence.

Unexpectedly, I came back late again. I will update a small chapter first and then catch up during the day.