Reinventing the Millennium

IDG Xiong Xiaoge Xiong’s live post on Zhihu, in which he was deeply involved in founding, is destined to become something that will be mentioned repeatedly in the future.

Regardless of whether it is Zhihu internal or external media, whether the short-selling result is a profit or a loss, when the final result is announced, the vision of Xiong Xiaoge, a well-known investor, and the judgment of the richest man in the mainland will refresh the screen.

However, some people have analyzed that just because Zhihu has grabbed a lot of attention and traffic this time, Mr. Xiong’s operation will not suffer losses. The only thing that makes people complain is that after all, he is the president of IDG, but he only invested 100,000. Chuan also claimed his entire net worth, which seemed stingy even if it was a joke.

Only Fang Zhuo was a little hesitant after hearing about such a thing, not sure whether Lao Xiong's words were a joke or not.

Finally, he asked Tesco Electric in Beijing to choose a holiday time to send shopping cards to Lao Xiong who stood up to support him. He also personally logged on to Zhihu and wrote a short answer, which was a way to express each other's feelings.

Yike's press conference and Mr. Fang's actions spread through different channels. The enthusiastic Zhihu and Mr. Xiong from 100,000 only reacted the fastest, while the other person who responded the most was Mr. Dahuang from Gome.

Lehman shorted Yike. Except for a certain friend in China who was suspected of helping with the investigation, Dahuang always took the lead in the charge, spoke actively, and followed up to short Yike.

When he saw Yike's information-intensive press conference through the media, there were people around him who analyzed the success or failure of the two short-selling companies.

Rhubarb is always very confident about this.

"Fang Zhuo shorted Lehman, which is in line with his character."

"But even if Lehman has problems, does it prove that Yike has no problems?"

"Fang Zhuola came to domestic operators to try to prove how promising his mobile phone project can be. However, the mobile phone market has long been a red ocean. Is Nokia afraid of competitors? Is Samsung afraid of competitors?"

"The mobile phone market is a mature market, and it is a very market-oriented competition. If Fangzhuo can recreate the consumer electronics myth of the player, I, I..."

Mr. Dahuang couldn't organize his words for a while. He sneered and said, "I'll just go in again."

The last time was unforgettable to him, and nothing could express his determination more than this.

With this determination, Mr. Dahuang expressed no scruples that he would continue to short Yike when he met reporters again.

Gome and Tesco have long been at odds with each other, and this time's short selling is nothing more than "repaying the other in the same way."

However, on August 20, Mr. Dahuang suddenly received news in his office that the Bear Stearns team, which he had been in contact with for a while as a potential partner, had arrived in China in advance and had landed in Shanghai. Then he went to visit Fang Zhuo. .

"Meet Fang Zhuo? Do they know each other? Do Kane and Fang Zhuo know each other?"

Mr. Dahuang was stunned in place, never expecting that James Caan, CEO of Bear Stearns, an investment bank, would have anything to do with Fang Zhuo.

The secretary knew what the boss had released through the media in the past two days, and also knew that he attached great importance to the cooperation with Bear Stearns. He replied somewhat sarcastically: "Bear Stearns said they were meeting friends from China... I don't know. Are you being polite..."

Mr. Dahuang frowned and suddenly felt an ominous premonition in his heart.

Almost at the same time, Fang Zhuo unexpectedly received a call from James Caan.

Faced with the unexpected visit, he did not refuse.

Speaking of the CEO of this giant investment bank, the first time they met was at the New York Economic Exchange's charity dinner. However, the two did not communicate much, they only exchanged phone numbers and chatted for a few words.

Later, Fang Zhuo attended many celebrity banquets in New York and met Kane for the second time. The exchange lasted a little longer, but the impression he left was not deep.

During the two meetings, James Caan smiled like a good old man, which was in sharp contrast to Lehman head "Gorilla" Fuld.

As one of the five largest investment banks on Wall Street, Bear Stearns ended up better than Lehman, and was eventually acquired by Morgan.

Fang Zhuo personally has no idea about Bear Stearns. As for the future actions of MIGA Fund, it depends on whether it conforms to business logic.

At three o'clock in the afternoon, Hang Lung 23, Fang Zhuo met Kane who had come from afar.

Soon, he knew the purpose of the other party after exchanging pleasantries.

Kane led the Bear Stearns team to come to China with three main goals: one is to sell CDO securities, the other is to strengthen China's business, and the third is to negotiate investment in China's retail industry.

Today's visit is aimed at the first goal.

The CDO bonds held by Bear Stearns cannot be sold to Chinese individuals. This time they are to be sold to domestic banks. Kane just learned that Mr. Fang is a director of ICBC and Bank of China not long ago, so he made an advance trip and wanted to do this. The position is to mediate.

Fang Zhuo thought it was reasonable, but he couldn't be the wrongdoer, nor could he lead the bank to be the wrongdoer.

He pushed six, two, five, ambiguously stating that he was not the director as Kane imagined, but was purely a position occupied by additional factors.

As for more things, I can't talk about them. I understand everything I know, and forget it if I don't understand.

Kane really understood, but he didn't force it. He felt that the relationship was probably not in place, and there was still time to talk about cooperation during this trip to China.

The main business between the two came to an end, and they also talked about Bear Stearns's investment in China.

Kane casually asked Mr. Fang about potential partners: "Mr. Fang, we are quite optimistic about China's retail industry. We plan to join hands with Gome, the number one home appliance retail company, to invest in other retail industries to integrate the industry. What do you think? How about it? Is Gome a good partner?"

Fang Zhuo had just heard Kane talk about his third goal in coming to China, but when he heard the name of Gome, he immediately couldn't help laughing: "Kane, you shouldn't ask me, you must not have a good understanding of Gome's situation."

As the CEO of an investment bank, it is impossible for Kane to do everything in detail. He really only browses and listens to reports. He would ask in surprise: "Is there something wrong with Gome?"

"Although Gome has slipped from the first place to the second place in home appliance retail, there is nothing wrong with it." Fang Zhuo did not bother to lie on this and said, "There was a relatively fierce competition between Gome and I. If you ask me, it’s hard for me to give an objective answer.”

Kane was even more surprised, but still smiled: "Then I should ask the right person. Aren't the people who know the most about a company the best about it?"

Fang Zhuo is actually not a polite person, so since he says so, there is no harm in talking about it.

"Gome's market share has declined due to various factors. It still has strong competitiveness."

"Bear Stearns has no problem choosing it as a partner."

"only……"

Fang Zhuo gave a twist: "Gome's capital liquidity is limited by competition and will not be so abundant. If you cooperate to invest in retail industries other than home appliances, I personally think Bear Stearns should still take the initiative."

"Gome's next industry competition deserves attention. For the initial investment, let Gome spend the money first. If there are no problems with the previous investments and there is no problem with Mr. Huang, you Bear Stearns will continue to invest."

"Gome will not refuse. On the contrary, it will be a little more eager. After all, Bear Stearns will not run away."

He guessed that Gome must be eager to cooperate with Bear Stearns. Dahuang still has money to invest, so let him invest first. Bear Stearns will not run away, it will only be acquired by a piece of chicken.

Kane thought about it, and realized that Mr. Fang's suggestion was fine, and the reminder was also out of good intentions.

He nodded and thanked the suggestions from Gome's competitors.

It was already late in the afternoon, so the reception banquet naturally had to be put on.

When the dinner was coming to an end, Fang Zhuo was a little curious about what the head of the investment bank thought of his short selling of another investment bank.

Kane's reaction was very dull: "The sales of Yike's products are great, and the copyright cooperation with music companies such as Sony is also good. It doesn't make sense for Lehman to short Yike. Similarly, it doesn't make sense for you to short Lehman. The U.S. real estate market Growth may be slowing, but the CDO bond boom will continue."

He said a few more words: "Tradable debt is not debt, but an asset. Although CDO is built on the subordinated debt of real estate, its prosperity has gone beyond the level of real estate to a certain extent and relies more on The financial system and credit, everything is under control.”

James Caan has a strong attitude and an interesting perspective.

CDOs rely on the financial system, and the financial system is backed by the United States. Even if there are risks, they are only risks within a controllable range. If the risks are controllable, is it still a risk for the giants?

During the financial crisis, some investment banks went bankrupt, some were acquired, and some were still profitable. The judgment of different senior management is an important factor.

Fang Zhuo thought of Goldman Sachs and felt that Goldman Sachs bought a large amount of CDS to hedge the CDOs it held. Perhaps it was because Paulson saw more comprehensive and detailed data after becoming a financial steward, and thus had risks that were not necessarily controllable. judge.

That night, Fang Zhuo, who had been drinking a little, returned home and opened Zhihu, which he had been reading in the past few days.

Questions and answers on Zhihu are very active.

Fang Zhuo simply replied to two posts, both of which received a lot of likes.

While he was drinking tea, he saw another dispute over the behavior of "short selling". He replied with some disapproval: "Short, long, short, long. These reports are not so mysterious. They are always the same." It’s driven by additional factors.”

"Don't be obsessed with Lehman's name and think that the reports it produces are so lofty."

"Lehman can issue a short report, and tomorrow Goldman Sachs can issue a bullish report."

"That's all. Just proceed from reality."

Fang Zhuo mainly thinks that everyone praises the halo a little too much. In fact, some reports may be written by interns. How to make judgments must be based on independent thinking and reality.

I thought this answer was just a regular like.

Unexpectedly, after a night, Fang Zhuo was sitting in the office the next day and saw a statement from Goldman Sachs China. It probably meant that he was not influenced by other parties, and his views on the company did not refer to peers or specific opinions. Driven by people.

This is Goldman Sachs China's implicit refutation of the remarks of Mr. Fang Zhuo, the richest man in the Mainland - If Mr. Fang is the same, why should we mention it if it's nothing?

The statement was reposted on Zhihu, and there were many people @Fang Zhuo with different purposes.

Fang Zhuo was a little helpless and had to add another sentence under the original answer: "I'm not talking about you."

Just when all the melon-eaters were wondering, in the evening alone, several financial institutions in the United States successively released bullish reports on the listed company Yike.

Northern Trust, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs all have "buy" or "overweight" ratings on the stock.

For example, Northern Trust has just cooperated, and issuing a bullish report is not a problem at all. But Deutsche Bank does not mention it, such as Morgan and Goldman Sachs. After contacting them, they are more reluctant to deal with Lehman. Of course, Nor does he agree with Lehman’s short-selling logic.

One company is short, and several companies are bullish.

Who is right?

If Lehman has the aura of an investment bank, then Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are not inferior to it.

Similar to the record-breaking "short selling" of Chinese concept stocks, is there any mystery about this behavior?

This is what Fang Zhuo wanted to express internally, and externally he was just responding normally. He did not really intend to use these short-selling reports to push up the stock price.

As for Goldman Sachs China, it was purely a mistake.

——I’m not talking about you, Goldman Sachs China, I’m talking about your headquarters.

The sudden backstab from the U.S. headquarters put Goldman Sachs China into embarrassment. The vice president who proposed to hurry up and make a statement was reprimanded. This kind of thing should be dealt with coldly. Why do you jump out and attract attention when you are idle?

They didn't explain any more, and treated the situation coldly and gained wisdom after learning from the experience.

Fang Zhuo didn't pursue such little tidbits. Everyone was just messing around and understanding each other.

The next day, Fang Zhuo, who was gradually recovering from the short-selling incident, cheered up, summoned the Yike Investment team, took the stamped and signed equity documents, and went straight to the capital to find Qingzi, who he didn't quite understand this time. .

Ah Qing, you have your way of stealing love, and I have my way of collecting debts.

…

Yi Ke's press conference caused a big stir in China. In contrast, although Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal also participated and reported on it, it did not cause much impact in the United States.

First, Yike's own stock price remains stable, with little profit margin for short and long positions.

Second, Mr. Fang’s short selling of Lehman was similar.

Third, the financial market in the United States is very prosperous. Everyone is busy chasing profits, and the small splash quickly disappears.

But the person involved, Fuld, finally saw the report and knew that Fang Zhuo had conclusively held a press conference on shorting Lehman in a distant foreign country.

When he was interviewed by Bloomberg, he also laughed loudly and only replied: "Hahaha, why doesn't Mr. Fang come to New York to hold a press conference?"

Bloomberg provides VIP members with on-page communication or mutual hostility, and Fuld quickly received a response from Fang Zhuo - "Hahaha, there will be. See you in New York then."

This little boring page communication ended with Fuld's last words - "Hahaha, waiting for you."

Not many people paid attention to the two people's brief report and shout-out, and those who did noticed found it boring. They just had some doubts in their hearts, why were these two people "hahaha"?