Reinventing the Millennium

Is there a bubble in Yike's stock price?

This is a discussion that has become increasingly popular in American financial media and even Chinese media in recent days.

The short side has long been using the media to analyze the difficulties faced by Yike this time. The people who appeared on the scene include both practitioners and senior experts. Now with Paulson’s second voice, although there is no movement in the hedge funds under his name, there is already Considered a symbol for shorting Yike.

As for Duofang, in addition to Fang Zhuo, the major shareholder, Yike Company itself has performed extremely well in the market. Even competitor Apple has helped to speak out against possible sales bans.

If the so-called sales ban can only have a limited impact on companies like Yike and Apple that release new phones in the middle of the year, is it still a negative signal that deserves special attention?

The ban is definitely a negative, but if it is resolved from the market level, is it a small negative, a medium negative, or a big negative?

However, whether it can be resolved at the market level is everyone's expectation.

For Yike's market situation, once bad news comes out, the attitude of cooperative operators and consumers will be critical.

Like LG Electronics, as soon as its sales were banned, the operator Verizon removed LG's smart touch screen machine from the shelves, and then turned around and hooked up with Yike, which severely hit LG's development.

This was not only because LG Electronics' mobile phone products themselves were not performing well, but also because it did not immediately keep up with the launch of subsequent products, making Verizon's decision easy.

The experience Yike learned from the ban on selling LG is that we must try our best to stabilize the channels of telecom partners and strive for buffer time. This is the company's key response to the ruling.

This work was handed over to Yu Hong personally.

There are no big problems for small and medium-sized operators in various states. The two top four operators that Yike currently cooperates with are T-Mobile and Verizon.

T-Mobile has been cooperating with Mars1 since its release, and has also used Yike mobile phones to poach many users from other companies. It firmly stated that it will not remove banned products from the shelves until at least the last moment when the ruling takes effect, and will actively Do a good job in selling Mars3.

In comparison, Verizon's attitude is more ambiguous and has not given precise words.

Finally, when Yu Hong said, "Are we going to make the wrong choice of LG again?" Verizon made some comments, but it only promised not to remove Yike's mobile phones immediately.

This is better than the treatment of LG mobile phones, but it can only go so far.

However, what is more subtle is that both T-Mobile and Verizon are subconsciously talking about the handling after the ban on sales ruling, rather than whether Yike will win the patent lawsuit with Nokia.

In addition, after Apple scheduled the launch event in May one month in advance, another manufacturer also followed up in a low-key manner.

Samsung updated the time of its new phone launch event on its official website, adjusting it directly from June to April 26.

It seems that Samsung is ready to take over - OP, let me shoulder the glory of Android.

"I suspect that Verizon is already negotiating closer cooperation with Samsung, or that T-Mobile is more sincere."

"Do you think we should adjust the launch date to May like Apple did?"

Apple moved the launch event to March last year because it followed 3G. This year, it mentioned May because of the ITC lawsuit.

This time in May changes as the ITC changes judges and news comes out.

If the ITC's ruling is indeed accelerated as rumored, it is likely that the sales ban will be banned next month. The maximum review process by the Commander's Office is 2 months. Late May will be the right time to pick up this point. If it is still June, Then there will be a gap.

"Don't be anxious, don't mess up your position." Faced with Mr. Yu's inquiries or suggestions, Fang Zhuo thought carefully and said, "The company can arrange it like this first. Let's look at the situation next month for the specific time of the press conference. We can still make a decision by the beginning of May at the latest.”

He added: "As for Verizon and Samsung, it is foreseeable that they will contact each other."

Because of Deutsche Telekom's role in Europe, T-Mobile is still Yike's first partner in the United States. This status quo will somewhat displease Verizon. Now that Yike is facing challenges, the ambitious Samsung will naturally be more likely to be included in in-depth cooperation. category.

Yu Hong frowned and nodded. She admired Mr. Fang's calmness.

"In the long-short game, the short side is trying its best to exaggerate the unfavorable factors, while the long side is trying to minimize the impact." Fang Zhuo said with a smile, "When necessary, T-Mobile's attitude can also be shown to everyone. Our partners Confidence."

When Yu Hong heard this, she thought about it and said: "Unfortunately, the signal released by Xiangjiang Huanyu only increased the exaggeration of the short side."

She actually wanted to say it together with Shen Xin Kechuang. After all, the release signal had a greater impact. However, considering the relationship between Wang Fenggu and Mr. Fang, the situation here was worthy of scrutiny.

"Xiangjiang Huanyu is no longer of use." Fang Zhuo heard the implication of Xiao Yu's words and added, "Shenxin Science and Technology is of no use to us. There is no need to pay attention to them. Your energy should still be focused on the company. In terms of response preparation, no matter what, the company has to make the most preparations."

Yu Hongduo asked: "What do you mean by useless?"

Since both Shenxin Science and Technology and Xiangjiang Huanyu hold more than 5% of their shares, they must go through the process of announcing a pre-shareholding reduction plan. Although they have stated that they want to clear their stocks, according to SEC regulations, even if they use block trading, this time they will only be able to Can shoot 2%.

The SEC regulations are like this. More than 5% are considered "large" shareholders and need to go slowly.

"They are signals. Whether it is a call auction or a block transaction, when the signal to leave is sent out, they are over." Fang Zhuo explained, "5% of the major shareholders have a 6-month lock-in period after they sell. It’s enough for us.”

From the beginning to the end, the risk for Shenxin Science and Technology and Xiangjiang Huanyu is that they may see profits beyond their imagination and hand over part of their holdings, thus mitigating the run created by the short squeeze.

Now, even if the stocks in their hands have not been cleared, the remaining shares are locked.

Yu Hong had heard Mr. Fang briefly talk about the financial plans he had prepared for the company before, but now she felt deeply that everything was going on, and that Shenxin Science and Technology and Xiangjiang Huanyu were about to be locked up.

Um……

She suddenly drew inferences. Major shareholders were slow to leave the market. If the company's stock price rose, how could Mr. Fang make more profits?

In an instant, Yu Hong had the answer herself. There were so many restrictions on exceeding the placard-raising line, and unrelated third parties should not exceed the placard-raising line.

"What are you looking at? Are there flowers on my face?" Fang Zhuo suddenly found that Mr. Yu was staring at him.

"I'm looking to see if you're cute enough." Yu Hong quoted a mocking comment from the big short Paulson.

Fang Zhuo sighed. It was okay for Xiaobao to speak out for the first time. Maybe he was accidentally caught. But now he spoke out for the second time. It was most likely that he was really targeting Yike.

No matter what, Xiaobao still made a lot of money for himself.

He did not comment on Xiaobao, but reached for the documents on the table and handed them to Mr. Yu: "If the plan remains unchanged, you will have to find someone to promote our business ecosystem in June. We have developed this online conference software ourselves." , you can try to use it for everyone.”

Yike Company started to use online meetings very early. We bought and changed several foreign software, but instability always occurred.

In the end, I tried to build my own software. The internal testing is pretty good now. If it is optimized and ready for use in June, it will be promoted at the press conference.

Yu Hong knew this, flipped through the documents, and asked, "You haven't named it yet?"

"Any name will do, just something simple and direct that people can understand. Well, Schmidt and I have also talked about the business direction of Android updates later. I hope to reduce the share of BlackBerry system to less than 5% this year. "Fang Zhuo said.

This is a small judgment in the direction of competition.

Yu Hong smiled: "If you don't let the BlackBerry pass the sign-raising line, just call it 'online meeting'."

"This is a to B solution. It is mainly to increase our business attributes. We can make it the best. Even if we can't make it, there will still be something for users to perceive." Fang Zhuo summed it up in one sentence and stopped talking about it. "We are still working on it. Selling mobile phones.”

He picked up another document and was about to continue talking about the report he had read late when an incoming call from China appeared on his cell phone in his pocket.

Fang Zhuo glanced at the screen, gestured to Mr. Yu, and threw away the instructed report.

Yu Hong wisely left the CEO's office with the documents.

"Hello, President Li." Fang Zhuo pressed the phone and said with a smile, "What's the matter? Give me a call today."

The caller was President Li, the head of ICBC.

This person's level is relatively high.

Although Fang Zhuo's dealings with him were relatively friendly, they didn't have much communication on weekdays. They only exchanged blessings on festivals.

"The bank has some funds recently, and we may need Mr. Fang to help." President Li said directly.

Fang Zhuo changed his mind and asked, "Does the president want to help me or is he asking me to help?"

President Li stopped talking in circles: "Do you need funds?"

He suddenly thought of Bing Xin and added: "I mean, Yike's side."

Fang Zhuo chatted leisurely: "It's this gust of wind. How do the domestic media write about me?"

"The richest man in the mainland is about to change ownership, Yike Company is about to collapse, and Fang Zhuo will be punished for shorting others. That's about it." Mr. Li has read a lot of relevant reports. The closer the date, the more pessimistic.

"Retribution..." Fang Zhuo laughed dumbly and answered the initial question, "Yike's situation is very good and he doesn't need funds."

President Li showed some concern: "I mean, what do you think about Yike?"

The peak of Yike's stock price in the past month was US$91, which was the feedback from the three major market leaders after they spoke on Bloomberg.

Today happens to be the latest bottom of $80.69, which was the result of the stance of institutional shareholders such as Shenxin Science and Technology and Xiangjiang Huanyu.

The difference between the two is US$10.31, which means that Yike's market value has dropped by 11.3%, from US$26 billion to US$23 billion.

Signals from institutional shareholders can be seen as signaling a downtrend.

This is because Fang Zhuo, the major shareholder, continues to attract money and is also regarded as a sincere supporter of Silver.

In addition, the news that Yike Company has just repurchased shares is also seen as a response.

But even so, Yike's stock price is still falling. If the 80 level is shaken and falls below, it may be a new round of decline.

"My side... is fine. There's a lot of money and it's enough." Fang Zhuo said sincerely.

"If you need funds, ICBC can provide help." President Li was very straightforward.

Before this phone call, he had already had a small meeting to analyze Yike to a certain extent.

The final judgment is that even a sales ban will not defeat Yike at once. The ensuing alliance between Yike and Apple will force Nokia to sit down and negotiate. This will certainly be a difficult period for Yike, but it will not be a problem after all. Will fall.

What's more, China's local market is still improving, so there is no need to worry about Mr. Fang not being able to pay back the money.

If Yike really can't pay it back, he can sell the real estate company's stocks, Sina's stocks, Bingxin's shares... he can pay back the money no matter what.

Fang Zhuo smiled slightly: "I really don't need...well, wait, President, it's not impossible."

Manager Li's heart froze. Sure enough, it is very easy to have financial problems when collecting funds to support the business.

"In this case, I don't need it now." Fang Zhuo said slowly, "But the president also knows Yike's current situation. In the future, I may need to use Yike's stocks to pledge a sum of money, is that okay?"

President Li tried to understand that in the future, he might be short of money and need to pledge stocks.

"Wouldn't it be easier for you to be shorted like this?" He frowned. "If you, a major U.S. stockholder, are pledging stocks, will an announcement be made the next day? Even if you continue to buy, people will still easily think that you are at the end of your rope."

Mr. Fang has been short-sold and is at the end of his rope. Let’s work harder!

Isn’t that how you understand it?

"Be prepared for a rainy day, maybe it's just a shiver." Fang Zhuo said calmly, "President, don't be afraid, I have enough money now, just be prepared for a rainy day."

President Li is not afraid.

After being silent for a few seconds, he said, "Mr. Fang, please contact me if you encounter any problems."

"Okay, President, I know your family has a money printing machine." Fang Zhuo said with a smile.

The same can be said to a certain extent when President Li ended the call.

In addition to being a family member in the relationship of his own director, Mr. Fang is also a family member in a broader sense that is more valued.

Nowadays, some people are shorting their own family. Can't this kind of shorting also be shorted? As long as Yike survives this period, it will be fine.

President Li has opinions from the top internal team and believes that Mr. Fang’s current fund-raising actions are based on such considerations.

As long as the short side is unprofitable, it will be a victory for Yike and Mr. Fang.

Such a victory requires facing many vicious short-selling institutions, and even a short-selling king on Wall Street. It is destined to be more difficult, but ICBC is willing to provide a certain degree of help at this time.

Mr. Fang has been working very hard overseas, and we cannot let him sweat, bleed, and shed tears.

President Li put down the phone and continued to instruct his top financial team to keep an eye on Yike's situation and be sure to provide timely help.