Revisiting Future Path

US$149.200 billion

Ding Lei added: "NetEase also does online games. Online games are very difficult to do. Everyone has seen the success of the Westward Journey and Fantasy Westward Journey, but neglected NetEase to cut down many failed projects. Taking "Fantasy Westward Journey" as an example, we initially did not I did not expect it to surpass "Western Journey 2", but it did. At the end of 2004, the operating data of "Western Journey 2" was higher than that of "Fantasy Westward Journey". Today, the maximum number of simultaneous online users of "Fantasy Westward Journey" has already exceeded 600,000. , The maximum number of simultaneous online users in "Western Journey 2" is only 440,000."

"The beginning of the Spring and Autumn Mountains, "The Spring and Autumn of the Ten Kingdoms" was very successful. Later, Spring and Autumn Software independently researched and developed "The Dancing Lord" and "The Road to Survival", each of which is a rare boutique. "World" is also very likely to be a phenomenal masterpiece following "Legend of Blood" and "Ten Kingdoms Spring and Autumn". Chunqiu Software's grasp of player needs is admirable, and Chunqiu Network's ambition to represent "World of Warcraft" at the sky-high price. It's amazing."

"I really admire Chunqiu's vision in the field of online games."

"However, risk is risk after all. The characteristics of online games determine that no matter how successful in the past, there is no guarantee that Spring and Autumn's next work will be a boutique."

Wang Yan immediately expressed his thoughts: "In the second quarter of 2005, Sina’s total revenue was US$46.1 million and net profit was US$10 million; NetEase’s total revenue was US$46.24 million and net profit was US$26.93 million, which was almost Sina’s. Netease’s high profits all come from the online game business represented by "A Story of Westward Journey 2" and "Fantasy Westward Journey", so Zhang Chaoyang said just now that he envied Ding Lei for making money.

"Everyone knows that online games are a profiteering industry, but Chunqiu Network is completely different from Netease. Chunqiu Network's total revenue is US$115.54 million, but its net profit is only US$26.57 million, which is less than Netease’s US$26.93 million. The reason for this is first of all. It is because of the high operating cost of Chunqiu Network, such as the huge investment in the development of global top 500 supercomputer-level servers; secondly, because Chunqiu separated the copyrights of "Ten Kingdoms Spring and Autumn" and "Left to Survive", 30% of sales were left-handed The right hand was given to Chunqiu Software."

"Chunqiu.com is a cash cow. It eats grass and squeezes out milk."

"The only remaining profits of Chunqiu Network have been invested in four-dimensional space projects and smart factory projects that have nothing to do with the online game business. Shanda is stingy with the online game business, and Chunqiu is even more stingy with the online game business. Wei Dongsheng is not willing to focus on development at all. Online games, how can I be optimistic about him?"

Ma Huateng is not optimistic about the sustainable development of online games. Ding Lei believes that online games are an unpredictable high-risk industry. Wang Yan criticized Wei Dongsheng for not being focused enough. With this being said, Chunqiu Network seems really hopeless at all. Zhang Weiying looked at Zhang Chaoyang, who did not answer: "Where is Zhang Chaoyang?"

However, Zhang Chaoyang converged and did not participate in the criticism of Chunqiu.com: "Everyone has already said what I want to say."

Zhang Weiying skipped Ma Yun: "The host is more polite, so let's not ask."

Zhang Weiying finally turned to the center of the vortex and asked Wei Dongsheng: "Everyone is watching the decline of Chunqiu Network in unison, is it out of your expectation?"

Wei Dongsheng looked very calm: "No."

Zhang Weiying was surprised: "Huh?"

If you talk about heroes by market value, Chunqiu Network is the undoubted leader. Chinese companies listed on NASDAQ have the highest market value of Chunqiu Network, and Chunqiu Network's market value even exceeded the sum of other companies. Zhang Weiying and the audience were surprised that Ma Yun, Ma Huateng, Ding Lei, Wang Yan, Zhang Chaoyang and others all watched the bad Spring and Autumn Network, but Wei Dongsheng at the center of the whirlpool calmly faced everyone's doubts.

Wei Dongsheng said slowly: "The doubts about the Chunqiu Network are all within my expectations. Since September, the nearly ten billion US dollars market value that Professor Zhang just exaggerated has become a thing of the past. Because Zhiyu Group has realized some Chunqiu Networks. Wang Yan said that everyone questioned Chunqiu Network’s inattention and low profit ratio. Since the release of the second quarter performance report in 2005, Chunqiu Network’s stock price fluctuated and declined. Based on the closing price on September 8, Chunqiu Network The market value of Chunqiu has shrunk to US$7.1 billion. In less than one month, the market value of Chunqiu Network has evaporated from US$9.4 billion to US$7.1 billion, which is enough to prove that Chunqiu Network is collectively looked down upon by the capital market and there is no shortage of them."

Wei Dongsheng said earlier that everyone was expecting the decline in the stock price of Chunqiu.com, but then added that he clearly did not agree with it. Feeling Wei Dongsheng’s emotions, Zhang Weiying asked: “Zhang Chaoyang feels that Sohu’s stock price is seriously underestimated. Do you think Chunqiu Network’s $7.1 billion market value is also underestimated?”

Wei Dongsheng: "Of course."

Zhang Weiying: "Do you think the market value of Spring and Autumn Network is reasonable."

Wei Dongsheng: "I'm not going to talk about specific numbers here. Let me just say a word. In the next three months, the market value of Chunqiu Network is likely to continue to decline, or even fall below US$6 billion. However, all of them have decided to sell and are unwilling to buy again. Investors in Chunqiu Internet stocks will definitely regret it on September 10 next year."

Zhang Weiying: "You have confidence in Chunqiu Network."

Wei Dongsheng: "Of course."

The audience at the scene concentrated their attention, curiously waiting for Wei Dongsheng, Ma Yun, Ding Lei and others to tear it. However, the West Lake Lunjian was not Wei Dongsheng’s press conference. Zhang Weiying did not cater to everyone’s expectations. Instead, Zhang Weiying deliberately reduced the intensity of the dispute between the six and turned to a new topic: "Just now, the audience reminded me that I seemed too surprised that everyone agreed on the decline Internet, so I forgot to ask whose company you are most optimistic about. Apart from Spring and Autumn, whose company are you most optimistic about?"

Wei Dongsheng didn’t care about Zhang Weiying’s change of topic and answered the new question in a flat tone: “Professor Zhang started by reviewing the history of West Lake Lunjian. He said that many Internet companies five years ago had no faces and no longer existed. What survived is what remains. Wang, Netease, Sina, Sohu, Tencent, and Alibaba are all the kings left over from the waves. I think that after years of hard work, the Internet has gradually matured. In a mature market, risks will also be reduced. The five companies here, as long as they don’t make particularly big mistakes during the period, may not be as powerful as they are today, but they are probably able to survive. Five years later, ten years later, Netease, Sina, Sohu, Tencent, and Alibaba will definitely all Can live."

Zhang Weiying added: "Who has the greatest potential?"

Wei Dongsheng: "Air-to-air doesn't make sense. What is excellent? Let's set a standard first, assuming that the standard line is a market value of US$200 billion..."

Zhang Weiying was suddenly embarrassed: "As far as I know, the highest market value of technology companies is Microsoft, with a market value of approximately US$280 billion. Companies with a market value of US$200 billion, except for a group of petroleum banks and companies, only Wal-Mart, Microsoft, and General Electric. There are only three companies waiting. You set the standard of excellence at $200 billion, isn't it a bit too high?"

Wei Dongsheng: "I set the standard at 200 billion U.S. dollars because if the development goes well, I think there will be a high probability that some of the five companies will climb to 200 billion U.S. dollars in market value within ten years."

Zhang Weiying: "I'm curious, who deserves your attention?"

Wei Dongsheng: "Alibaba of the host Jack Ma."

Zhang Weiying immediately turned to Ma Yun: "Ma Yun, Wei Dongsheng valued Alibaba at US$200 billion, what do you think?"

Ma Yun smiled happily: "I feel so happy and regretful. If we had known that Wei Dongsheng valued Alibaba so much, I should go to Chunqiu for alms, instead of selling 40% equity to Yahoo for 1 billion US dollars. Yahoo estimated for us. It’s worth 2.5 billion U.S. dollars. To the Spring and Autumn Period, I think Wei Dongsheng can value Alibaba at least 10 billion U.S. dollars even without 200 billion U.S. dollars.

Zhang Weiying smiled and said, "Do you think Wei Dongsheng is flattering you?"

Ma Yun: "Even if it is flattering, I am happy to listen."

No one believes Wei Dongsheng’s thesis, nor does Alibaba have the ability to achieve a market value of US$200 billion in ten years. It is Jack Ma, who is full of self-confidence, and now he dare not expect to bring Alibaba to the realm of 200 billion US dollars in market value. Wei Dongsheng's sincere optimistic statement was regretted by everyone as a joke.

Zhang Weiying interspersed with short stories and asked: "Speaking of valuation, I think of an interesting thing. Chunqiu Network was registered in December 2002, and it was successfully listed on the Nasdaq in May 2005 after only two and a half years. Chunqiu The rapid rise of the Internet has made many companies the envy of many companies. However, it is rumored that the time to market of the Spring and Autumn Network can actually be faster. It will be able to follow the grand pace and ring the bell on the Nasdaq in June and July 2004. The reason for the postponement is In May 2005, it was because you were not satisfied with the valuation of Chunqiu Network by the securities underwriters, and you were unwilling to follow in the footsteps of Chunqiu Network's listing in Shanda, waiting for "Leave to Survive" to prove the sustainability of Chunqiu Network, waiting for "World of Warcraft" It proves that the soaring price agency contract of that year was a correct investment, and Chunqiu Network only stepped forward to Nasdaq. Wei Dongsheng, is this rumor true?"

Wei Dongsheng admitted: "Financing is also an investment, and it is always good to go together. I think Chunqiu Network is worth six billion U.S. dollars and has the ability to sprint 15 billion U.S. dollars in the future; but you look down on Chunqiu Network and think it is only worth 600 million. U.S. dollars, naturally the two sides cannot continue the talks."

Zhang Weiying: "This rumor turned out to be true. Now that you value Alibaba at 200 billion, do you really think it is worth 200 billion US dollars?"

Wei Dongsheng: "If all goes well, within ten years, Alibaba will definitely have a high probability of sprinting to a market value of US$200 billion."

Zhang Weiying: "What if it doesn't go well?"

Wei Dongsheng: "If it doesn't go well, naturally everything will stop."

Zhang Weiying can still accept such a rational answer. Zhang Weiying asked again: "I heard you value 200 billion U.S. dollars for Alibaba in ten years. I am particularly curious about your expectations for Spring and Autumn. What is your valuation for Spring and Autumn in ten years?"

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