Salted Fish’s Self-help Strategy
Chapter 804: Flashback
On Saturday afternoon, Chu Yuanxi sat in the tea room alone, welcoming Hu Shiheng's visit again. This time, President Hu's intention is very clear, that is, to talk to Chu Yuanxi face to face about the issue of listing.
Although the link of going public is not the most important part of every link in a company's growth from a young dragon to a dragon, there are many strategic choices and implementation of tactical operations that have a greater impact on the company than going public. But for investors, going public is undoubtedly the most critical link, because they can withdraw freely, and investors’ equity is given liquidity, which is undoubtedly more active.
Of course, today, the global economy is facing a recession, and the impact on the public stock market is particularly huge. The concept of "IPO first" is also changing. Because, even if many invested companies have IPO, the big guys who should have rejoiced in their successful investment were surprised to find that they were savvy in learning leeks and couldn't find another man.
Especially in the past year, unicorns have dropped below the issue price in large numbers on the open market, which is called "breaking" in the jargon. What's worse than a break is that there is no trading volume. According to the jargon, it is called "liquidity exhaustion", that is, the leeks are out of money and cannot afford to take orders.
This phenomenon is extremely terrible, because valuations can only stay on paper. As long as the big players in the primary market dare to sell, they will be "infinitely short". After the IPO, they cannot recover the cost of the shares. Without going public, continue to expand the valuation through indicators such as market-sales ratio and market share, and carry out subsequent rounds of financing. On the contrary, some people are willing to take orders in the primary market.
As a result, the IPO must use indicators such as price-to-earnings ratios. The key is that the characteristics of leeks are to buy up and not to buy down. No matter how attractive the valuation is when it falls, no one makes value investment. The more they want to sell, the more they fall off the cliff. Early investors smashed their plates, forcing listed companies to take out valuable cash to buy back on the open market, step by step into a vicious circle.
By June 2019, this scene intensified, especially with the Chinese concept stocks listed on Nasdaq. In terms of daily average transaction volume, Mogujie is $380,000, and Ruhan is $730,000. This is what Chu Yuanxi has criticized before...
You must know that large stocks like Mogujie and Ruhan are standard unicorns in a certain field. Stock trading is only a few hundred thousand a day. Even if the unit is $, their early investors don’t know what to do. . The key is that in Nasdaq, it is still not possible to buy and sell. What is the hype volume of counter-trading than attracting follow-up and even driving up the shipment or smashing the shipment, which is my usual and effective method of large A shares. Do you use NASDAQ? No pants were found.
So now many big investors have learned well. Even if the stock price of Xiaomi listed on Xiangjiang is down, the trading is still active, if you want to run it, you can get out. Of course, this is an example. Xiangjiang's liquidity itself is only concentrated on the top stocks, and there are countless penny stocks. This is also the reason why Xiaomi’s share price in Xiangjiang continues to fall. VCs have to hit the market and no one can stop it. Even the relatively high-quality Meituan has plummeted for more than three months after the IPO, all the way to the end of last year. .
Therefore, large-level investors pay more attention to the development goal of the investment target, preferably the next TMD. The "unicorn" standard of $1 billion has seen multiple VCs hitting the market in the face of liquidity traps, which is seriously unattractive. And the right to speak well-off is naturally strengthened as the timeline progresses. Believe it or not, I am bragging anyway, starting with 300 billion, you can figure it out.
In fact, it is not only NASDAQ, but exchanges around the world are not very good in trading, but our big A shares are very competitive. Although the trend is the same as before, with a strong national football style, but in terms of trading volume, you can find a stock that is above 10 million and less than 10 million.
In fact, the large A-shares have also experienced the extreme situation of trading exhaustion. That was before the unprecedented bull market in 2005, when the market hit the bottom of 998. At that time, stockholders had to place sell orders one hand at a time. Ten hands at a time could hit the limit. They would receive a call from the exchange and be sued to manipulate the stock price. Even a certain stock has not been traded for more than ten days, so that many retail investors think that it has been suspended and reorganized and are quite happy, but there is no...
Ironically, during the long period of time before 998 that year, the domestic venture capital environment was still extremely immature. The majority of entrepreneurs accepted overseas investment, basically priced in $, and even pony held a penguin to sell. No one acquired. Therefore, the tragic lessons of the year did not educate the big investors who are currently active in the investment landscape of the Tian Dynasty.
Until today, under the circumstances, this group of capitals who have not been beaten up began to reflect on their investment strategies, which also confuses entrepreneurs. However, this is actually a good thing for entrepreneurs who really aim to start a business instead of financial freedom, because IPOs can even have a counterproductive effect in many cases.
Not to mention the restrictions on financing after the IPO, the naked eye is that the big A-shares become rotten as soon as they are listed. Some of them are not able to do it by themselves. Forcible whitewashing of financial statements must be listed; but some are really before the listing. It is very promising, but the healthy growth path was blocked by the major event of going public, and then all the management was stunned by the myth of new stocks, and it was difficult to get back to the state.
Even if this barrier is held up, what about when early investors arbitrage and leave? The listing of technology companies and the successful transformation of technology into explosive products are two different things. The hope of explosive products is imminent, and then early investors used the obscure advantage of high-priced shipments to make the company hit the streets.
Therefore, between entrepreneurs and investors, there will always be more or less conflicts about IPOs. Both Chu Yuanxi and Hu Shiheng understood this.
I saw Hu Shiheng picking up the tea cup steadily, but he blew it and didn't drink it. Instead, he held the cup to his mouth and asked: "Xu Xin hopes that the evening market will not be available for at least five years. I agree with this. But I seem to hear Yuan Mu say that you especially want to IPO in China, why?"
"First of all, we definitely don't go to Frankfurt, London, etc., right? You must be talking about Xiangjiang or Nasdaq." Chu Yuanxi did not expect that Hu Shiheng was entangled with this, "I don't want to go to these two places, because I don’t think they are good. The profit requirement for domestic IPOs will definitely be met in five years. We will start to make profits in the next year. In five years, we will be profitable for exactly three years.
"No." Hu Shiheng looked weird and put the tea cup down gently, "We are not talking about one thing. You are talking about the difficulty of domestic IPOs. I mean, going to NASDAQ is not our instinctive goal of venture capital. ?"
Does Hu Shiheng have that need? One of the two best ways to get $? "Well, Mr. Hu, it is like this. If it is $, Pakistani people will definitely have a lot of overseas business in the future. Then it will be a way to withdraw through an investment agreement and the same is true. The opening price of the IPO shall prevail. How? That is, if the blood draw is too large, it will be divided into batches..."
Hu Shiheng's eyes widened! "Xiao Chu, I didn't mean that, I have channels. I mean, people with normal minds would not insist on domestic listing of technology and Internet companies? Unless they are determined to cut leeks, I think you are not like this. Kind of. Nasdaq's supervision and Xiangjiang's supervision are many times better than those in China. Which really powerful Internet companies don't want to go?
It is precisely for the healthy development of the enterprise that I suggest that you consider it carefully. You may have some wrong concepts because you did not run through the entire process. The IPO is a sublimation for the company. The exchange’s post-IPO stock supervision is very important for the company. A good exchange can promote the company’s progress, while a bad exchange will have a significant negative impact on the company. Like..."
He paused here, some words didn't need to be said completely, but his tone became quite cautious.
"After the IPO and before the IPO, the company is likely to be different. Do you understand? It is the hearts of the people, everyone's hearts, including your own."
Speaking of "human heart", Hu Shiheng asked unconfidently to stretch out his left hand, with the palm of his hand facing upwards and scratching with five fingers, shaking up and down while talking, as if grasping something.
"Especially for companies like Xiaokang that are almost fully owned by employees, self-discipline cannot solve this problem. You may not have experienced it, but I have seen it many, many times. In fact, Xu Xin, Yuan Jing and even Yuan Mu have also met. Many times.
To some extent, the domestic regulatory system is entangled. You should be aware of this. That's why the weird phenomenon that executives must resign if they want to sell shares. In the final analysis, it is because of popular support that there are no real modern enterprises in China. Modern enterprises need the protection of the modern corporate system and the unanimous approval of investors and management. What we lack is precisely this kind of approval.
Even if it is Vanke's old king, it is a modern manager in name, but in reality? It doesn't respect the modern corporate system, and it doesn't respect capital. It's the same thing. why is it like this? Too much control? It is not only the desire to control, but more importantly, domestic companies, regardless of capital or management, do not fundamentally recognize modern corporate management systems in the A-share environment.
What caused this? System and law are the bottom line of morality, and moral standards determine people's hearts. The so-called system is not just about investor education. It is not just about monitoring the untimely information disclosure or irregularities of listed companies. It is not just about filing cases of violations of laws and regulations by directors, supervisors and senior managers, and not just protecting the interests of small and medium investors in the secondary market. The more important thing for the rat warehouse is to form a benign consensus through institutional orientation, rather than a consensus similar to the law of the jungle.
I am not accusing anyone of doing the wrong thing. After all, the A-share market was only 30 years old, and it is incomparable with developed countries. The original historical mission was like that.
But the actual situation is like this. Unlike the Nasdaq, the top-level design of the Xiangjiang Exchange is also very good, and the level of supervision is also very different.
So you are particularly inclined to A-share IPOs, and you want to plunge into this quagmire. I don't know what you think, but there seems to be any scruples? Even from the perspective of healthy development of the company, A shares are not a good choice. If you choose this path, the next five years may be your highlight period, but what about after listing? You will find that the nine-nine-nine-eighty-one difficulty has just begun, and the IPO is just a mountain of two circles.
As for me, capital is ruthless. Sharing wealth is easy, and sharing adversity is difficult. I can only hope that the stock price will be at a high level when the lock-up period is reached. After all, I am only a financial investor in name, and selling stocks makes sense. "
Hu Shiheng's statement is profound, but it is not new to Chu Yuanxi, because there are other bigwigs in the original world who have said similar things.
This kind of profound truth, it is difficult to see the context and source without experiencing dozens of IPO investments. It feels like that. Any leeks that enter the A-share market for two or three years will have a similar feeling, but they want to It is difficult to speak thoroughly.
In a daze, his mind could not help flashing back to the fierce tearing in the original world before the crossing last year.
The solution that was easy to see at that time was not to insist on A-share listing, so that a year or so was enough to complete the listing preparation. This is also a hot topic discussed by many investors. Although some of them are optimistic about the future development of a well-off society and are not in a hurry to go public, there are also many late entry, hoping to achieve free exit as soon as possible.
At that time, Xiaokang’s financing was already very difficult, but there was still a demand for funds. If you insist on domestic listing, the CSRC will have a profit requirement. Even if the VIE was demolished at that time, it would take several years to get it. How much blood do investors need to transfuse during this period?
Therefore, Chu Yuanxi had to answer the investor's question "what are you thinking and what are you insisting on?"
At that time, Chu Yuanxi sprayed like this: "You are all right. Going to Nasdaq is good, and going to Xiangjiang is also good. That's now! What about the future? You don't have to wait three or five years, but one year later? In 17 years, the Americans repeatedly threatened to fight the sweater war is just talking? The bed broke and came to power to fight the sweater war with us. After the sweater war starts, will the Nasdaq welcome the Chinese stocks as it did in the past? Even if welcome, Do you think they won’t change their faces?
Open your eyes and see, the whole world is moving towards populism. Who can tell how far the sweater war has been? Everyone who goes abroad is not shit! Isn’t it a gift to Nasdaq? When the time comes, I will be a fish, and it is good to allow you to privatize and delist! You sold the stock and ran away. How about Xiaokang? Whatever others do! "
"You are purely alarmist!" A small investor from a mining group screamed: "It's just a fictitious thing. Even if it does, we can't fight it. We can fight the sweater war with the United States under this condition? Kneel down!"
"Yes, right, right, it's okay, at best, you can strongly condemn it. You are too worried, right?" Another re-export trader said, "Don't say anything else, there are so many offshore companies in our country. , What about the sweater war? So there is nothing like that. The weather will be smooth next year and another year."
"Hey, hey, you don't have common sense." Li Jingfei jumped up with his bare head and said, "As soon as the sweater war starts, what is the sky-high price that the Americans can offer? Yes, so the fight must be a fight. If you seek peace through struggle, you will survive, and if you compromise, you will die.”
"You have to worry about too much for your life with waste oil?" The mining investor laughed and asked, "Even if the Nasdaq doesn't go, what about Xiangjiang? Why doesn't Xiangjiang go?"
"I haven't ruled out Xiangjiang in principle, and VIE has not been demolished." Chu Yuanxi said with a frown. In the Nasdaq situation, he believes in his own judgment. Even if others don’t believe him, he is confident, and the development of the matter is estimated to be worse than he expected. The process will be longer. It is used to convince the other party that it can’t work. It's okay to convince yourself.
But as for Xiangjiang’s speculation, he was purely brain-inspired speculation, and it was enough to persuade allies. Yuan Jing and Yuan Mu might be noncommittal, but like Li Jingfei, he might not eat it.
He slightly observed the perception of everyone in the multifunctional hall. At this time, it has been arguing for several hours, starting from the double-layer equity structure, arguing that Xiaokang has deviated from the use of raised funds. UU read www. uukanshu.com was noisy to the distortion between development and financing, and even to the break-even point, as if some people knew how to operate, and finally noisy to go public, most of them have on their faces Blushing with a thick neck posture.
Let them go! Chu Yuanxixin said that these old scumbags respected them enough, and that they had already over fulfilled their obligations, but this group of scumbags really treated them...I blamed myself for pampering them too much and taking care of them. It's so thoughtful and used to it! This is called a father-in-law. If there is another opportunity to start a business, don't even think about it. I am definitely not used to this problem!
It doesn't matter how they look at it, just love understanding or not! He said in his heart that it was just a bunch of scum, laugh at it, and the elephant doesn't need to care about the ants' laugh.
"However, regarding the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, I am afraid. So I don't want to start the preparations for Hong Kong's listing as a last resort."
"Afraid? There is still something that President Chu is afraid of?" Another investor who had forgotten what Chu Yuanxi was doing was amused. "Is it afraid of short-selling companies like muddy water? There is nothing terrible about companies that have no financial fraud. what."
"I'm afraid that there will be another Asian financial crisis of 1997, even greater." Chu Yuanxi said nonchalantly, "What if we fail to hold on to such a big shock? What if we are able to resist risks? Is it that strong? It’s hard to say. I don’t care anymore. Control will not change anyway. At most, there are too many executive stocks on certain business lines. I can’t help but jump to trigger a chain reaction. Maybe you have to hand over the bargaining chips with blood."
I say so, but when the storm comes, whether someone jumps off a car or a collective jump on certain business lines, God knows this!
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