Birth of an actor

"Don't worry, Will, I have several funds, the fund of each member of the Roderick family, the gift of my grandfather Waddington, the inheritance of my mother, and a part of Roderick that was permanently allocated to my name when I was an adult." I just transferred most of the money flowing in the books, and the rest is enough to maintain normal operations, as long as we don't misappropriate it for too long, there will be no problems." Lance replied indifferently: "As for my father, the money may be considered a large amount of money in our eyes, but it is nothing in his eyes. Moreover, as long as I don't cause trouble for him, even if I fail, he doesn't need to come forward to clean up the trouble. He doesn't care what I do."

"Well, my tension level can finally drop from ten to eight." William took a long breath and said, "Also, thank you for being too out of touch, I won't say it, you know what I think, Lance. "

"I know." Lance smiled and said, "If you want to do something, just let it go, Will, and I also found a few helpers for you, they may be able to help you."

The helper Lance mentioned is a trader who graduated from several prestigious schools and has rich experience. He has been working for Lance before. To be honest, this really saved William a lot of effort. Now he is more and more confident in the success of his plan. .

The funds are in place, the professionals are in place, and what is missing is a little bit of inside information on Wall Street—maybe not particularly inside information, but it always needs to be a manager who has worked on Wall Street for a long time and is at least above the middle level. news in advance.

Lance can't help with this point. After all, Roderick Industrial Group's focus is not on the financial market, and the group's financial business is firmly in the hands of Tyler Roderick. Tyler Roderick wants to It is too difficult for K to provide all-round help for Lance's career, and even if Taylor Roderick is willing, Lance will not agree, so they have to figure out their own way.

Luckily it wasn't that difficult to find help on Wall Street - Edwin Bradley was a good guy, and he was a good guy for a long time, which is very rare on Wall Street, because there Most people are ruthless and selfish, but they are always emotional animals. Edwin has worked on Wall Street for so many years, and there are always some friends who still keep in touch with Madeleine and William after his death. Now, they are also happy to support Edwin. Wen's son to provide some help within his ability.

The funds are in place, the manpower is in place, and the informants are also in place. The right time and place are just the right time for Hezhong. William is always ready.

At the end of February 1997, Wall Street detected a change in the financial giants. Several international hedge funds gathered at least 2 billion U.S. dollars in liquidity and began to buy Thai baht in the international market, Thailand, and even the U.S. government. Although 60 US$60 million sounds like a small number, and it cannot cause any fluctuations in a country's financial market, but if the fund's traders are strong enough, through leveraged financing, the US$60 billion can form tens of billions or even thousands of dollars in the international financial market. billion dollar investment effect.

"Is the international hedge fund that took the lead in buying the Thai baht called Quantum Fund? Maybe there is also Tiger Fund."

The fund manager said in surprise: "Yes, Mr. Bradley, but why do you know this? I haven't reported it to you yet, and this news is still a secret to Wall Street and the whole world for the time being. Only those with indirect access to this transaction may have access to inside information."

"Don't ask me why I know." William said firmly with the tone that he had finally waited: "You just need to know that the time we have been waiting for has come."

Even if the fund manager still had some doubts, he refrained from asking. He just did his job well and suggested to William: "Quantum and Tiger are well-known international hedge funds, and any of their actions are not aimless. , It is foreseeable that there will definitely be other international speculators following the steps of Quantum and Tiger in the future and buying a large amount of Thai baht. The Thai baht is absolutely bullish in a short period of time. Before other funds have reacted, do we need to buy Thai baht as soon as possible? Wait until the Thai baht has risen before selling, and the short-term operation will definitely earn a lot of money.”

Founded by George Soros, Quantum Fund is one of the five hedge funds operated by him, and it is also the most famous one. This high-risk fund focusing on the stock, foreign exchange and bond markets is well-known and notorious in the international financial market. Since the establishment of Gein Quantum Fund, every time it develops and grows, it must be accompanied by a bloodbath in the international financial market.

Tiger Fund is a hedge fund founded by Julian Robertson in 1980. Like Quantum Fund, it is the most famous hedge fund in the world today. It is also one of the six hedge funds named after cats founded by Robertson in the 80s. One, the aggressiveness and danger of this fund can be foreseen from the name Tiger

The fund manager thought that William wanted to follow the ass of the famous Wall Street hedge fund to make money, so he proposed this, but William replied: "No, we don't buy the baht to rise, what we want to buy is a put option. But not Buy now, but wait for the Thai baht to rise to the highest point before buying, and the highest point will probably appear in March, we, especially you, should always pay attention to the changes in the Thai stock market, and notify me immediately if there is any abnormality.”

"What?!" The fund manager asked in extreme shock, but professionals are professionals after all. After recovering, the fund manager immediately understood what William was implying: "You mean, Soros will trade in the Thai stock market. His tricks to keep playing like he did in Europe and South America?"

The "trick" that the fund manager refers to is a very beautiful speculative war that Quantum Fund fought in Europe in 1992, which can be included in financial textbooks: In early 1992, Quantum Fund bought a large number of German marks and sold a large number of British pounds. Attacking the British financial market, although the Bank of England used up all the Deutsche Mark foreign exchange reserves to resist, it could not stop the international hot money brought by the Quantum Fund. In just one month, the British pound was forced to withdraw from the European monetary system and float freely. The exchange rate plummeted by about 20%. In the same year, the Quantum Fund used the same method to snipe the Italian lira, and then in 1994, the Quantum Fund used the same method to attack the Mexican peso, causing a temporary collapse of the Mexican peso. It also made a lot of money for the international hedge funds headed by Quantum Fund.

It is worth mentioning that in the above-mentioned relatively large currency wars in the international financial market in the 90s, although Quantum Fund was the leader and disturbed the storm, because the total capital of Quantum Fund was only 50 billion US dollars, and Tiger Fund can bring together up to 200 US dollars of funds, so Tiger funds in the international financial market caused greater damage to other countries' stock markets, but because George Soros likes to charge forward, and Julian Robertson is always very Careful and low-key follow behind to make a fortune silently, and the bad reputation always makes George Soros and his Quantum Fund bear most of it.

Facing the fund manager's question, William readily admitted: "That's right, that's what I thought."

"But this is impossible. The economies of most countries in Europe and South America have been in stagnation or even recession in recent years, so Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund can successfully attack the pound, lira and peso. But the Asian economy has been taking off, and China It is a giant. Not only does the US dollar reserve have hundreds of billions of US dollars, the stock market is not free and open, nor is it a free currency exchange area. Coupled with political factors, Quantum Fund dare not attack China no matter how brave it is, and other Southeast Asian countries ,Thailand,Malaysia,Indonesia,South Korea,North Korea,Philippines have been doing economic miracles for a long time, they... wait, Mr. Bradley, you are implying me that these countries are actually the same as Japan in the late 80's, too high economy Is there a lot of bubbles hidden under the growth, and will it burst and reveal its original shape if someone pokes it?"

In 1989, the Japanese economic myth reached its peak, and the average Nikkei stock price was as high as 38915.87 points. However, behind the high prosperity of the economy, it was the high mismatch of industrial assets. , and the Japanese government's own operational mistakes caused the Japanese economy to decline rapidly, the bubble economy burst, and the Japanese economy began to enter a long period of stagnation and regression.

Before the emergence of the Japanese economic bubble, the economies of Asian countries were favored by the world. It was like a dream of prosperity that would never be shattered. They watched from the sidelines and found that the Asian countries, especially the Southeast Asian countries, which had experienced rapid economic development like Japan in the past 20 years, actually had the same bubbles as Japan, but it was not obvious.

Without the shattering of the Japanese economic myth, perhaps the loopholes in the economic systems of Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines would not have been noticed. China's economy maintained a mythical high-speed growth, but Japan's economy was destroyed in just a few months like a bubble in the most frenzied and excited period. Economic overheating and economic system loopholes also exist in Southeast Asian countries. , So even if it is not this year, even if it is not the initial attack by Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund, the Asian financial turmoil will be inevitable in the next few years.

"I'm not an economist, let alone God. I'm afraid I can't answer your question accurately and definitely, but...yeah, I also have a but." William said: "Just looking at Quantum Tiger's large purchases of Thai baht is absolutely I am optimistic about the performance of Thailand's economy, but is Thailand's economy really so good, so good that many famous hedge funds in the world are watching its growth?"

The fund manager understands what William has not said yet, that is, "this investment behavior is definitely shady", because he has unknowingly agreed with the other party's words, and the fund manager rarely keeps silent in a listening state, instead of expressing his own views .

"We can observe the performance of Thailand's domestic economy in the next month. If there is a sluggish performance that does not match the economic heat, then Quantum Tiger's behavior of buying Thai baht is by no means optimistic about Thailand's economy, but completely opposite. Falling Thai Baht—You are professionals on Wall Street, and the news is still very well-informed. If Quantum and Tiger buy billions or tens of billions of put options on Thai Baht, you will definitely hear the news, right? Don’t hesitate at that time, Just follow along and buy."

"Understood, Mr. Bradley." The tone of the fund manager sounded like he had survived a disaster: "To be honest, you asked us to directly buy put options on Thai baht at the beginning, which really scared me. I thought you, a layman, were playing games with hundreds of millions of dollars of capital like a child’s house! But after analyzing it now, I have to say with admiration that from the perspective of my 18 years as a fund manager, you Chances are you got it right - anticipating the actions of Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund! God, Mr. Bradley, did you graduate in finance? Or did you know Mr. Buffett so you got some more inside information? "

"No, not at all." William said with a smile, "But I did get some advice, but unfortunately I can't tell you the specific details, sorry." Follow your own orders, or obey your own orders.

……

William's plan is actually closely related to the actions of George Soros and Julian Robertson. Once these people are ready to stir up troubles in the international financial market, they will have room to play. The specific actions of international speculators are well known.

As for the methods used by international speculators to make money, it is actually easy to understand after explaining it clearly. Take the incident of the Mexican peso being attacked in 1994 as an example step by step:

1: If the initial peso-dollar exchange rate is 1:1, international speculators first borrow 100 billion pesos from the U.S. government in the form of swaps, and the peso is favored, and the international exchange rate will definitely rise.

2: While the peso is appreciating, buy a large number of peso put options. Others are bullish and you want to buy down. The price is definitely cheaper.

3: When the peso rises to the highest point, sell the peso in your hand to exchange for the dollar, because the peso has appreciated at this time, and 100 billion pesos can be exchanged to 200 billion US dollars.

4: The Mexican stock market has an additional 100 billion pesos all of a sudden, coupled with the news that the peso is going to plummet deliberately released by international speculators, other fund managers have sold their pesos one after another, and the exchange rate of the peso began to fall again and again. The US dollar exchange rate of 1:1 depreciated to the exchange rate of 10:1.

5: Buy 10 billion pesos at an exchange rate of 1:120, spend 12 billion U.S. dollars, return it to the US government, and leave 188 billion U.S. dollars, which is the profit of international speculators.

This involves two professional operations, namely "swap" and "put option". To explain in the most vivid language, "swap" means "I will lend you 100 billion U.S. dollars and pay you back 120 billion U.S. dollars in one month." , "put option" means "the peso and the dollar have risen from 1:1 to 0.8:1, and maybe it will rise to 0.5:1. Let's sign a futures agreement. After one month, I will exchange 3 pesos with you for 1 dollar. Can it work? ——The person who was exchanged thought that if the peso dollar is 0.5:1 in one month, and I need three pesos for 1.5 dollars, I only need to give him 1 dollar, this is a good deal and sign it!"

Through these five-step operations, international speculators have made money at least three times: one is to sell at the highest price of the peso and make a fortune; The U.S. government returned 120 billion pesos. Although it was larger than the original 100 billion borrowed, international speculators still made money because the peso had already depreciated significantly.

The completely empty-handed white wolf method, but through clever operations, can not only obtain huge profits in the short term, but can even disrupt a country's financial market. This is the currency war under the modern international financial situation!

In fact, not only the currency wars since the early 90s, but since the globalization of the world economy, when international speculators snipe crude oil futures, gold futures or other futures, they mostly choose the same model. Beat the exchange rate and profit from the stock market drop.

Although the method is not new, there are very few people who can see through it in advance, because the most important thing in financial games is timing. Even if the difference is only one day, no, one hour, the ending may be between heaven and hell. point.

From the end of February to the beginning of March 1997, a lot of hot money appeared in the international financial market to buy a large amount of Thai baht, and the Thai baht was bullish all the way.

On March 3, the financial report of the Central Bank of Thailand showed that nine financial companies and one housing loan company in Thailand had problems of low asset quality and insufficient liquidity. There are some other companies that are also in poor financial condition.

With Thailand's economy booming and the baht constantly appreciating, bubbles are already visible.

On March 3, almost at the same time as the Bank of Thailand's financial report was released, William instructed fund managers to buy a large number of put options on the Thai baht.

In early March, international speculators led by George Soros' Quantum Fund and Julian Robertson's Tiger Fund began to sell a large number of Thai baht, as well as the stocks of Thai banks and financial companies, and the Thai baht began to fall all the way.The funds in William's hands are swelling.

From mid-to-late March to April, the Thai baht fell all the way, causing international panic. Not only other international copycats in the Thai stock market are selling the Thai baht, but even Thai banks and companies themselves are selling their hands as soon as possible in order to stop losses. baht and stocks.The funds in William's hands are expanding rapidly.

In early May, the baht fell to a new low of 5 baht to the US dollar and has continued to depreciate.William and the fund managers chose to sell the futures in their hands at this time, and the assets were nearly ten times larger than when they entered the market.

In mid-May, just when the carnival fund managers thought that William was going to stop, William bought a large amount of Thai baht when the baht fell to the lowest value.

In mid-to-late May, the Central Bank of Thailand and Singapore mobilized tens of billions of dollars to absorb Thai baht in an attempt to restore the stock market. The Thai baht did recover in the short term, and international speculators were immediately caught off guard. At least billions of dollars were lost in the government raids.And a considerable part of it went into William's pocket.

In June, Quantum Tiger Fund’s attack on the Thai stock market has attracted the attention of the whole world. The hot money behind Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund has also risen from tens of billions of dollars to hundreds of billions of dollars. In the international financial market, these hot money may generate trillions of dollars at any time, or even a magnitudeless effect.As for the Thai government, the current foreign exchange reserves are only 6 billion U.S. dollars.

Before the official decisive battle between the two sides, William had already quietly left the Asian financial market with his profits, just as he came gently, and left gently without leaving a trace.

No, maybe it can’t be said that there is no trace left. George Soros and Julian Robertson must have known that there was such an unknown fund that followed them closely after they completed the early stage paving, and sometimes even beat them. Before, he made a fortune in the currency war, and then joined the Thai government to counter-snipe them before leaving.But who does this unnamed fund belong to?Why did they grasp the timing so precisely?Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund will never know the truth,

"The Thai baht is gone." The fund manager said affirmatively: "The hot money gathered in the Thai stock market is immeasurable, and the foreign exchange reserves of the Thai government are not even 500 billion U.S. dollars, and because of a small loss before, the quantum The fund's counterattack this time is bound to be more violent, and this country cannot last long under the serial bombing of international speculators."

The Thai baht will lose. In addition to the lack of strength of the Thai government itself, another important reason is that even the Thai banks and companies are not on the side of the government at this moment. They are also constantly throwing out their stocks in order to stop losses. The baht and stocks have caused a larger collapse of the baht in a row.

"Why don't we stay in the Thai stock market for a while longer and join the final battle?" The fund manager asked in puzzlement: "The final battle between international speculators and the Thai government may impact the Thai baht exchange rate to 30:1. If we continue to hold options for a few more days, we will definitely earn something.”

The tone of the fund manager is more like a question than a question, because even if they had doubts about William, those doubts have long since disappeared with the success of the past few months. Now these few fund managers and traders not only firmly believe that William is a talented financial expert, but also firmly believe that there must be a more mysterious figure standing behind him.

If fund managers and other traders and traders initially obeyed William Bradley's orders only because of Lance Roderick's orders, now they have become willing to follow orders. In just three months, the amount of money they took away from other international speculators in the Thai stock market was too huge. It’s not that these people have never had such a large sum of money, but they never dared believe that they actually The creators of such a huge sum of money—even if they only give them a few tenths of a percent, or less dividends, it is enough for these people to live a life without worrying about food and clothing—this not only makes them feel like a dream He was so flustered, and even regarded William Bradley as a mysterious and omnipotent magician.

"Because I know how to accept what is good, and I don't like to push others into a desperate situation." William said: "And we have such a huge amount of funds in our hands, and such a large-scale flow of funds cannot be hidden from Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund. A group of experts, while they have no time to take care of other things, we can retreat unscathed, but when they win a decisive victory in the fight with the Thai government, it will not be easy for us to leave so easily. God bless, I am still prepared It would be too embarrassing for them to find out who they are now in the next few battles."

"The next few battles? Mr. Bradley, don't you think the same as me? After Thailand, the Quantum Fund still has targets, the Philippines, Malaysia—"

"Malaysia, Indonesia and others."

The fund manager swallowed, and his voice was very loud: "Then, is our role the same as in this baht battle? Hiding behind the scenes to fish in troubled waters?"

"Fishing in troubled waters, I like this word." William said with a smile: "But we can't always follow the Quantum Fund. The next few currency wars can continue to play the previous role, but when the Quantum Fund encounters a hard nut When the time comes, we have to stop at the right time, and even stand on the opposite side of him."

"The hard nuts...do you mean Hong Kong, South Korea or Taiwan? In Asia, these three markets can compete with the international speculators led by Quantum Fund. Others include the Philippines, Myanmar, Indonesia and Malaysia. With economic problems similar to those of Thailand and low foreign exchange reserves, it is impossible to withstand the joint attack of international speculators."

William replied vaguely: "You guessed right, Hong Kong, for example, has a full foreign exchange reserve of 940 billion U.S. dollars, which must have been stronger than the Thai baht for a longer period of time.

The fund manager keenly grasped what William hadn't finished saying, but he was still a little puzzled: "Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves and economic health are stronger than those of Thailand and the Philippines, but it is very difficult to turn against the most famous hedge fund team in the world. Bar."

"In the financial market, if you win, you lose. No one can be a constant victor." William avoids the important and ignores the trivial.

The fund manager wanted to ask, "Then why are you so sure that the copycats with huge hot money will lose?" But he immediately remembered how he came to work for William Bradley (Lance Rodriguez) Ke assigned), by the way, I thought of the energy possessed by the surname Roderick, and several think tanks that are inseparable from the Roderick Group.

For example, the Cato Institute, which has several Nobel economists, has grown from obscurity to influence decisions in the US economy, and has become a think tank for the Conservative Party and even the president. The process of development and growth is inseparable from the Roderick Industrial Group. Sponsorship, and the Cato Institute is just one of several think tanks in the United States sponsored by the Roderick Group.

Maybe this is just a small currency war provoked and fought by international speculators at first glance, but there is a deeper inside story behind it?Even mixed with a little political factors?

The fund manager who accidentally thought too much didn't dare to think about it any longer. He said very docilely: "You are right, Mr. Bradley."