Harry Potter and the Way of Reason

Sometime, somewhere, something, something must have been different...

Petunia Evans is married to Mike Verres, a professor of biochemistry at the University of Oxford.

Harry James Potter-Evans-Verys grew up in a house full of books.He once bit a math teacher because she didn't know what logarithms were.He has read Gödel, Escher, Bach, Judgment Under Uncertainty: A Study of Heuristics and Biases, and the first volume of the Feynman Lectures on Physics.Those who knew him seemed worried that he would become the next Dark Lord, but he had no such intention.He was better educated.He wants to discover the rules of magic so that he can become omnipotent.

Hermione Granger was better than him in every class except flying.

Draco Malfoy is what a Darth Vader-like father would raise for an 11-year-old boy.

Professor Quirinus Quirrell realized his wish for many years and became a professor of Defense Against the Dark Arts.In his own words, it was a battle magic class.His students were wondering what would go wrong with the Defense Against the Dark Arts professor this time.

Dumbledore is either mad, or he's playing a huge game of chess that involves burning a chicken alive.

Vice-Headmaster Professor Minerva McGonagall needs to find a quiet place to scream for a while.

Introducing:

Harry Potter and the Way of Rationality

You can't guess the direction of this story.

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Some declarations:

The views of the characters in the story do not necessarily represent those of the author.Warm(!) Harry's ideas usually mean good, worth-following patterns, especially when Harry thinks about how to cite scientific research to support a certain idea.But Harry's actions and thoughts are not all wise.Otherwise, the story cannot proceed.Less warm characters may sometimes offer some valuable teachings, but those teachings can also be a dangerous double-edged sword.

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Now, back to your regularly updated novel…

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The point of strategy is not to choose one path to J.K. Rowling, but to make choices so that all paths lead to J.K. Rowling. [1]

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A small study room, close to the Ravenclaw dormitory, but not in the dormitory, one of the many, many disused rooms in Hogwarts.Gray stone floor, red brick wall, stained dark wooden ceiling, four glowing glass balls are embedded in the four walls of the room.There is a round table that looks like a solid black marble slab resting on four thick cylindrical black marble legs, but is actually very light (both in weight and mass) and can be easily moved when needed. move.There are two comfy upholstered chairs that at first appear to be anchored in inconvenient places, but the pair eventually find that they slide over to where you stand when you lean forward and gesticulate to sit.

It also looked like there were some bats flying around the room.

It was here, as future historians would someday record - if the whole project did come to fruition in the end - that the scientific study of magic had begun, by two first-year Hogwarts students.

Harry James Potter-Evans-Verys, theoretical scientist.

and Hermione Jane Granger, the experimental scientist and subject.

Harry's studies were improving now, at least in the subjects he found interesting.He read more books, and not the kind written for 11-year-olds.One hour of his extra time each day was spent practicing Transfiguration repeatedly, and the other hour was spent learning Occlumency.He takes the homework worth learning seriously, not just handing in homework every day, but studying extra content in his spare time, reading books other than textbooks, and trying to master these subjects, not just memorizing a few test questions The answer, which stands out.You don't see anyone doing that except Ravenclaw students.Now even in Ravenclaw, his only rivals are Padma Patil (whose parents were from a non-English-speaking country and thus taught her true work ethic), Anthony Goldstein (from a tiny race that takes 25% of the Nobel prizes),[2] Of course, there's the far ahead, titan-like striding past a pack of puppies, Hermione Granger .

To conduct the experiment, the subjects had to learn sixteen new spells independently, without assistance or correction.This meant that the subject of the experiment had to be Hermione.period.

It is worth mentioning that the bats flying around the room at this time did not emit light.

Harry couldn't accept the meaning behind this fact.

"Ugali, Bugali!" Hermione said again.

Once again, at the tip of Hermione's wand, suddenly, without transition, a bat appeared.the moment before.Only air.Next moment, bat.Its wings seemed to be flapping the moment it emerged.

And it still didn't glow.

"Can I stop?" Hermione asked.

"Are you sure?" Harry's voice seemed to be blocked by something in his throat, "Even if you practice a few more times, it's impossible to make it glow?" He was violating the experimental rules he had written down before, It was sinful, and the reason for the violation was that he didn't like the results of the experiment, which is an unforgivable felony, enough to send you to scientific hell, but it doesn't seem to matter.

"What did you change this time?" Hermione asked, a hint of weariness in her voice.

“是乌，唉，衣这三个元音的长度。应该是3比2比2，而不是3比1比1.”

"Ugali, Bugali!" Hermione said.

The bat that emerged had only one wing, and it whirled pitifully on the ground, flapping its wings and turning in circles on the gray stone floor.

"What the hell?" Hermione asked.

"3 to 2 to 1."

"Ugheli, Bugheli!"

This time the bat was wingless and slapped to the ground like a dead mouse.

"3 to 1 to 2."

Wow, the bat appeared and immediately flew to the roof, healthy and glowing bright green.

Hermione nodded in satisfaction. "Okay, what to do next?"

Long pause.

"Really? Do you really have to say Wugeli, Buqili, Rangwu, alas, the length ratio of the three vowels is 3 to 1 to 2, otherwise the bat will not shine? Why? Why? Look at For the sake of all holy things, why on earth?"

"why not?"

"Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!"

boom.boom.boom.

After thinking about the principles of magic for a while, Harry designed a series of experiments based on the following premise: Almost everything wizards know about magic is wrong.

You can't really have to say "Wingardium, Leviosa" in exactly the right way to levitate the target because, c'mon, "Wingardium, Leviosa"?The universe checks that you say "Wingardium, Leviosa" in exactly the right way, or else it doesn't let the quill float?

Won't.Obviously impossible, if you really think about it.One guy, probably really a preschooler, an English-speaking magic user anyway, thought "Wingardium, Leviosa" felt so flying, and cast the spell on the first When I said this.Then tell everyone else they have to say it.

But (Harry deduces) it's not immutable, it's not an inherent part of the universe, it's an inherent part of yourself.

There is an old story passed down from generation to generation among scientists, a lesson learned, the story of Brownlow and N-rays. [3]

Not long after the discovery of X-rays, the eminent French physicist Prosper René Blanclow—the first to measure the speed of radio waves, proving that it was the same as the speed of light—announced that he had discovered A wonderful new phenomenon, N-rays, can make a screen slightly brighter.You have to work hard to see it, but it is there. N-rays have many interesting properties.It can be refracted by aluminum, focused by an aluminum prism, and hit on the treated cadmium sulfide wire, making it glow faintly in the dark...

Soon, dozens of scientists, especially in France, were confirming Brownlow's results.

But there are still other scientists in Britain and Germany who say they're not quite sure they saw that faint light.

Their experimental setup may not have been tuned properly, Brownlow said.

One day, Brownlow made an experimental demonstration of N-rays.The lights were turned off, Brownlow fiddled with his experimental setup, and his assistants called out observations as the lights dimmed and brightened.

It was a normal demonstration, and all the results were as expected.

Even an American scientist named Robert Wood quietly stole the aluminum prism at the center of Brownlow's experimental setup.

That's the end of the N-ray.

Reality, Philip K. Dick once said,[4] is something that doesn't go away after you stop believing.

In retrospect, Brownlow's guilt is obvious.He shouldn't have told his assistant what he was doing.Brownlow was supposed to make sure that when the assistant was asked about the brightness of the screen, the assistant didn't know what was being tested, or what was being tested when.It was as simple as that.

Today, this method is called "single-blind/double-blind experiment", [5] It is a method that modern scientists take for granted.If you were doing a psychology experiment to see if people were angrier when they were hit on the head with a red truncheon than when they were hit on the head with a green truncheon, you couldn't just observe the subjects yourself and decide that they How "angry".You're going to take pictures of them after they've been hit in the head with a baton and send them to a panel of judges and ask the panel of judges to rate each person on a scale of 1 to 10 for how angry they are, and the panel of judges obviously can't know the hit experiment What color is the subject's baton.In fact, the review team didn't have to be told what the experiment was testing at all.You certainly can't tell subjects that you think they'll be angrier when they're hit with a red baton.You just give them twenty pounds each, take them into the laboratory, hit them with a baton, which must be a random color, of course, and take a picture.Actually baton hitting and taking pictures should be done by an assistant who can't know your hypothesis so he doesn't have expectations, hit harder, or choose the right moment to take the picture .

Brownlow's reputation was thus ruined by the kind of mistake that would have resulted in a failing grade in a freshman class on experimental design and possibly a laugh from a teaching assistant...in 1991.

But that was much earlier, in 1904, so it was months before Robert Wood thought of the obvious alternative and found a way to test it.Dozens of other scientists fell for it.

The history of science was already 200 years old at that time.In the recent history of science, this error has not been obvious.

So it's quite possible that in this little wizarding world, where few people know science, no one has yet tried the first, simplest, most obvious thing any modern scientist would think to check first.

The book is full of complicated instructions describing all the things that must be done exactly right when casting a spell.Harry's hypothesis was that following the instructions, checking that he had followed all the steps correctly, might actually do something.It will force you to focus on the spell.Just waving a wand and making a wish will probably be less effective.And once you believe in how the spell should be done, when you have practiced it in this way, maybe you will no longer be able to convince yourself that there are other ways...

...if you make a simple mistake, then try other possibilities yourself.

But what if you don't know the original spell?

If you look for a boring book of prank spells in the library at Hogwarts, and pick out some spells that Hermione hasn't learned yet, some spells give her the correct original instructions in the book, some Some change an action, some change a word in a mantra, what will happen?What if you didn't change the description, but told her that a spell should get a red worm instead of the blue one the book says?

Then, in this case, the result is...

...Harry couldn't believe the results of his experiments...

...you can still get bats if you make Hermione say "Ugheli, Bugheli" but change the ratio of vowel lengths to 3 to 1 to 1 instead of the correct 3 to 1 to 2, But it won't shine.

That's not to say that your understanding of spells doesn't matter.It's not just spells and wand movements that work.

If you say exactly what the spell does when you tell Hermione it won't work.

If you don't tell her what the spell is for, the spell won't work either.

If she knows roughly what a spell does, or just gets a part of it wrong, the spell will still succeed, but the effect will be as described in the book, not as she thought it would be.

Harry is currently banging his head against a wall, literally banging his head against a brick wall.Didn't hit hard.He didn't want to destroy his precious brain.But if he doesn't vent his frustration, he'll blow himself up.

boom.boom.boom.

It seems that the universe does want you to say "Wingardium, Leviosa" and wants you to say it in a certain precise way, it doesn't care what you think the correct pronunciation is, like It doesn't care how you feel about gravity.

Why what?

The worst part was the smug and amused look on Hermione's face.

Hermione was kept in the dark about not accepting to sit there and obediently follow Harry's lead.

So Harry explained to her what they were going to test.

Harry explained why they were tested.

Harry explains why other wizards may not have done this experiment.

Harry explained that he was actually quite confident in his prediction.

Because, says Harry, there's no way the universe really wants you to say "Wingardium, Leviosa".

Hermione pointed out that her book didn't say so.Hermione asked if Harry really thought he was eleven years old, after a little more than a month's education at Hogwarts, and already outsmarted every wizard in the world who disagreed with him.

Harry responded in the following words:

"of course."

Now Harry was staring at the red brick in front of him, wondering how hard he would have to hit the wall to inflict a concussion that would prevent the formation of long-term memories so that he would not be able to remember the event in the future.Hermione wasn't smiling, but he could feel her wanting to laugh, radiating from behind him, pressing against his skin, a bit like realizing he was being followed by a murderer, only worse.

"Go ahead," said Harry.

"I didn't mean to say it," said Hermione Granger's kind voice, "that would be bad." "Say it and be done," said Harry.

"Okay! You taught me how hard it is to do basic scientific research, that we might take 35 years to work on a problem, and then you expect us to be able to do it within the first hour of working together. To make the greatest discovery in the history of magic. You're not just hoping, you're really expecting it to happen. You're being silly."

"Thank you. Now—"

"I've read all the books you've given me, and I still don't know what to call this. Overconfidence? Planning fallacy? The Super Premium Ubigon Lake Effect?[6] They have to be named after you. Haha interest bias."

"okay!"

"But cute. Very boyish behavior."

"Go to hell."

"Oh, you're always so romantic when you talk."

boom.boom.boom.

"What next?" Hermione asked.

Harry leaned his head against the brick wall.His forehead started to hurt where it hit the wall. "Nope. I need to redesign some different experiments."

Over the past month, Harry had carefully designed a whole set of experiments that would last until December.

It would have been a great set of experiments if the first experiment hadn't falsified his most basic hypothesis.

Harry couldn't believe how stupid he was.

"Let me correct that," Harry said, "I need to devise a new experiment. I'll let you know when I think it over, we'll do this experiment, and then I'll devise the next one. How does that sound?"

"It sounds like someone wasted a lot of effort."

boom.Ow.He accidentally hit too hard.

"So," said Hermione.She leaned back in the chair, the smug expression returning to her face. "What did we find out today?"

"I've discovered," said Harry through gritted teeth, "that my books on the scientific method even Rubbish is worse than-"

"Watch your words, Mr. Potter! There are still innocent little girls here!"

"Okay. But if my books were worth a crucian carp,[7] a crucian carp is a fish so there's nothing it can't say, they should give me this important advice: When you're faced with a puzzling problem , and you have just started research, and you have a falsifiable hypothesis, test it immediately. Find some simple, easy, basic tests, and do it right away. Don't bother to design a whole set of complex and sophisticated experiments, then Something to put in a grant application that impresses the institution providing the funding. Check your idea as soon as possible before investing a lot of effort. Is it okay to use this as a lesson?"

"Well... well," said Hermione, "but I would have liked to have heard something else, like 'Hermione's books aren't worthless. They're written by wise older wizards, and they're about magic." Knows a lot more than I do. I should take Hermione's book seriously.' Can we add that lesson?"

Harry's jaw was clenched too hard for a word, so he just nodded.

"Great!" said Hermione. "I loved the experiment. We learned a lot from it, and it only took about an hour of my time."

"Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!"

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Slytherin's cellar.

An eerie green light illuminates an abandoned classroom, much brighter this time.The light was emanating from a small temporarily enchanted crystal ball, but still an eerie green light, casting grotesque shadows across the dusty desks.

Silently, the figures of two boys in hooded gray cloaks (no masks) entered the room and sat down opposite each other on two chairs at the same table.

This is the second meeting of the Bayesian Conspiracy.

Draco Malfoy wondered if he should look forward to this meeting.

Harry Potter, judging by the look on his face, had no doubts about what mood he should be in.

Harry Potter looks like he wants to kill.

"Hermione Granger," Harry Potter replied when Draco opened his mouth, "don't ask."

Could it be that he wasn't dating again?Draco thought, but that doesn't make sense at all.

"Harry," Draco asked, "I'm sorry, but I still have to ask, did you really order an expensive mok bag for that Mudblood girl's birthday?"

"Yes, I did. Of course you've figured out why."

Draco ran a hand through his hair in frustration, the hood brushing over the back of his hand.He didn't know why, but he couldn't say now.Everyone in Slytherin knew he was courting Harry Potter, and he'd made it obvious enough in Defense class. "Harry," Draco said, "everyone knows I'm your friend, of course they don't know about the Conspiracy, but they know we're friends, and it would embarrass me for you to do something like this."

Harry Potter's face tightened. "If a Slytherin doesn't know what it means to feign kindness to someone you don't actually like, he should be ground to a pulp and fed to a pet snake."

"A lot of Slytherins don't understand," Draco said seriously, "most people are stupid, but you still have to maintain a good image in front of them." Nothing will happen.

"Why do you care what other people think? Are you really going to live your life explaining everything you do to the dumbest idiots in Slytherin so they can judge you? Sorry, Draco, But I won't reduce my cleverness to the point where even the dumbest Slytherin can understand it, just to save you from embarrassing yourself. Your friendship isn't even worth the price. What's the fun in living like that. Please tell me, when some Slytherins are so stupid they don't deserve to breathe, don't you ever think of insulting a Malfoy's dignity by pandering to them."

It really never occurred to Draco that catering to idiots was as natural to him as breathing, without thinking at all.

"Harry," Draco said at last, "it's unwise to do what you want without thinking about what others will think of you. The Dark Lord cares about his image too! Everyone fears him and hates him, and he Knowing exactly what kind of fear and hatred he wants to create. Everyone has to think about what the other thinks."

The hooded man shrugged. "Maybe. Remember to remind me when I tell you about the Asch Conformity Experiment,[8] you might find it interesting. I'll just say that for now: It's dangerous to intuitively worry about what other people think, because in In that case, you really care, without cold-blooded calculations. You have to remember, I was once bullied and beaten by senior Slytherins for 15 minutes, and then I stood up and graciously forgave them. Like That's what the good Boy Who Lived should do. But Draco, my cold-blooded calculations tell me that the dumbest idiots in Slytherin are of no use to me because I don't have a pet snake. So I have no reason to care about them What do you think about how Hermione Granger and I dueled?"

Draco clenched his fists without frustration. "She's just a Mudblood," Draco said, calming his voice so he wouldn't yell. "If you don't like her, just push her down the stairs."

"The people of Ravenclaw will know—"

"Then let Pansy Parkinson push her down the stairs! You don't even have to manipulate her subtly, give her a Sickle and she'll do it!"

"I'll know! Hermione passed me in the reading competition, she got better grades than me, I have to beat her with my mind, or it won't count!"

"She's just a Mudblood! Why do you respect her so much?"

"She's a mighty force in Ravenclaw! Why do you care what some incompetent idiot in Slytherin thinks?"

"It's called politics! If you can't play politics, you can't gain power!"

"Walking on the moon is power! Being a great wizard is power! Some powers don't require me to spend my whole life trying to please the mentally retarded!"

The two of them stopped at the same time, and in an almost perfectly synchronized rhythm, began to take deep breaths, trying to calm down.

"I'm sorry," Harry Potter said after a moment, wiping the sweat from his brow, "I'm sorry, Draco. You have great political power, and it's reasonable to keep it to yourself. You should count Slytherin What would you think. It's an important game and I shouldn't insult it. But you can't ask me to downgrade my Ravenclaw game just so you don't get a bad face for being associated with me .Tell Slytherin that you secretly gnashed your teeth while pretending to be my friend."

That's exactly what Draco told the other Slytherins, and he still wasn't sure if it was the truth or a lie.

"Anyway," Draco said, "I'm afraid I have some bad news when it comes to your image. Rita Skeeter has heard some stories about you, and she's started asking around."

Harry Potter raised an eyebrow. "who?"

"Reporter from the Daily Prophet," Draco said, trying to hide the concern in his voice. The Daily Prophet was one of my father's main tools, and he used it like a wizard's wand. "That's the newspaper that people really care about. Rita Skeeter writes about famous people and, as she puts it, stabs their inflated reputations with her quill. If she can't find anything about you She will make up her own rumors."

"I see," said Harry Potter.His face, illuminated by the green light, had a thoughtful expression under the hood.

Draco hesitated before saying the next sentence.Someone must have reported to father by now that he was courting Harry Potter, and father knew that Draco hadn't mentioned anything when he wrote home, and father knew that Draco didn't Would have thought he could really keep it a secret, so it was a clear message that Draco was practicing playing the game himself, but still on his father's side; because if Draco had been tempted away, he'd send him back It would be a false report.

So Father might have guessed what Draco was going to say next.

It was kind of scary to actually play games with my dad.Even if they are on the same side.On the one hand, it was very exciting, but Draco also knew that in the end it was his father who had the better game.No other ending is possible.

"Harry," Draco said finally, "it's not a suggestion. Not my advice. Just a fact. My father can almost certainly undo the report. But you'll have to pay the price."

As for the fact that his father had expected Draco to say that to Harry Potter, Draco didn't mention it.Harry Potter may or may not be able to figure it out on his own.

But Harry Potter just shook his head and laughed under the hood. "I have no intention of having Rita Skeeter retract the story."

Draco didn't even try to hide the disbelief in his voice. "You won't tell me, you don't even care what the newspaper says about you!"

"I don't care as much as you think," said Harry Potter, "but I have my own way of dealing with people like Skeeter. I don't need Lucius' help."

Draco couldn't help showing a worried look.Whatever Harry Potter was going to do was unexpected to his father, and Draco was very nervous about how things would play out.

Draco also noticed that his hair was wet with sweat under the hood.He hadn't actually worn such clothes, and hadn't realized that the Death Eater's cloak might have been enchanted with a Cooling Charm or something.

Harry Potter wiped the sweat from his forehead again, grimaced, took out his wand, pointed upwards, took a deep breath, and said, "Frost!"

After a while, Draco felt a cold wind.

"Icy frost! Icy frost! Icy frost! Icy frost! Icy frost!"

Then Harry Potter lowered his wand and put it back inside his robes with hands that looked a little trembling.

The whole room is noticeably cooler.Draco could do it too, but it was still pretty good.

"By the way," Draco said, "science. You're going to tell me about bloodlines."

"We're going to find out what blood is," said Harry Potter, "by doing experiments."

"Okay," Draco said, "what experiment?"

Harry Potter smiled wickedly from under the hood and said, "It's up to you."

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Draco had heard of the Socratic method of questioning, teaching by asking questions (the method of teaching is named after an ancient philosopher who was too smart to be a real Muggle, so must have been a a full-blood wizard masquerading as a Muggle).One of his personal teachers was fond of using the Socratic question and answer method.It's nasty, but it works.

And then there's the crazy Porter pedagogy.

To be fair, Draco has to admit that Harry Potter did initially try the Socratic question and answer method, but with little success.

Harry Potter asked how Draco would disprove the Pure-blood hypothesis that wizards were unable to do what they were able to do eight centuries ago because of mixing with Muggle-borns and Squibs.

Draco said he didn't understand how Harry Potter could sit there with all seriousness and claim it wasn't a trap.

Harry Potter replied still with a serious expression, if this is a trap, it is too bad, too obvious, he should be ground into a meat paste for it, and fed to pet snakes, but this is not a trap, It's just a principle when scientists work, you have to try to falsify your theory, and if you honestly try and fail, it's a victory.

To point out how foolish that was, Draco commented that the key to victory in a duel was casting Avada Kedavra on his own foot and missing it.

Harry Potter nodded.

Draco shook his head.

Then Harry Potter threw out another theory, that is, scientists have to observe different hypotheses fighting with each other to decide which ones are the winners, and there is no way to fight without an opponent, so Draco must find someone who can fight against the theory of pure blood. Opponent, so that the theory of pure blood can win.Draco felt that this was somewhat understandable, although Harry Potter looked disapproving when he said it.It's like, if pure blood theory is the truth of the world, then obviously the sky must be blue; and if some other theory is true, the sky must be green; no one has seen the sky yet; and you go outside Looked to see that the pure-bloods had won;