Soviet Union 1991
Text Chapter 14 The Baltic Sea Dilemma
After the thorny domestic problems were temporarily resolved, the extremely busy Yanayev finally had time to deal with the secession crisis from the joining countries, especially the three Baltic countries. Since the death of Stalin, the original strict policies to combat separatism have been loosened. From the Khrushchev to Gorbachev era, the iron chains that tightly bound national separatism have loosened, and the cracks have become wider and wider. Finally, a complete breach occurred at the moment Gorbachev proposed political pluralism, breaking down the last embankment protecting the territorial integrity of the Soviet Union.
Although the Soviet Union was huge, no part of it was redundant. The three Baltic countries are an important springboard for threatening Western Europe and suppressing NATO. They are also Russia's strategic buffer on the Baltic front. If they really want to go independent, the Soviet armed forces will not agree, the Baltic Fleet will not agree, and similarly, the top government officials will not agree. .
Although in the end most of the participating countries were deceived by the fools of the West, they found themselves even more impoverished than before after becoming independent. Those countries that produced oil, cotton and other rich resources eventually became areas rich in Western European dishwashers and prostitutes.
But to be fair now, even Yanayev himself cannot guarantee that he can suppress the domineering wave of separatism before the disintegration of the three Baltic countries reaches an irreversible point.
In March of this year, Lithuania had already begun planning to establish its own country, and of course the top leaders of the Soviet Communist Party would not recognize it. Although Gorbachev's new alliance treaty gave these participating countries hope of independence. But the coup of the Emergency Committee has cast a layer of gloom on the minds of these independents. Estonian President Arnold Rutel, who is still visiting Finland, heard the news of the successful coup and was even ready to establish a government-in-exile.
Yanayev thought about using the army to advance into Czechoslovakia like he did to suppress the Prague Spring, but he gave up the idea in the face of the Soviet Union's internal and external troubles. War is a continuation of political helplessness. Although he does not mind using the torrent of steel to turn the three Baltic countries into ruins, he will have to spend a lot of manpower, material and financial resources to defend the hard-won fruits of victory, which is not worth it.
For example, it was indeed easy to kill Saddam Hussein's troops during the decapitation operation in the Iraq War, but how to deal with the endless guerrillas and suicide attacks after the war has always been a headache for the US finances. The Soviet Union had suffered losses in the Imperial Cemetery of Afghanistan, so Yanayev did not want to use war to solve the problem anyway. Diplomatic pressure? Who can tell that the red polar bear is now extremely weak, and if he pretends to be tough, he is just trying to make his face look fat.
To this end, he needs to discuss this issue with Defense Minister Yazov. After all, Yazov, as the former leader of Army Group Center, does have more say on this issue than Yazov who talks on paper. Yanayev asked his question, but the defense minister's answer surprised him.
"War? Why do we want to launch a war? The current economic situation of the Soviet Union has reached this point. If we launch another war, I can't imagine what kind of abyss our country will slide into. With all due respect, General Secretary Yanayev , in doing so, will the Soviet leader be described as the executioner who launched the Third World War, or as the Hitler of the evil empire?" Yazov asked calmly.
"I always thought you would approve of the use of war, Comrade Yazov." Since even the top military and political leaders were unwilling to use war, Yanayev was relieved. But he still has a big doubt in his mind, "Since we don't agree to use war, the separation of the three Baltic countries will also become an established fact. The chain reaction of the subsequent joining countries may... be even more unacceptable."
"Moreover, Estonian oil shale reserves are as high as 15 billion tons, with an annual output of 35 million tons, accounting for 80% of the total oil shale production of the former Soviet Union. No matter how you look at it, it is a strategic location that cannot be abandoned." When it comes to resources in Asia Nayev is a capitalist with shining eyes, and the resources that can create wealth for the Soviet Union are indispensable to him.
"Instead of working hard to maintain a dilapidated country after the war, it is better to squeeze its remaining value while it has a breath, until finally the three Baltic countries have to turn around and ask us for help." Yazov smiled and told Yana Jev made a vicious suggestion, "The industrial foundations of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia that we helped build will be completely dismantled and either shipped back to the country or destroyed on site. Let these scraps return to the era of agricultural civilization."
"This alone is not enough. In order to deal with us, the West will also give them a large amount of economic aid, so they have to completely cut off their ideas from the root." Yanayev, who has always been easy to imagine, quickly thought of other cases by analogy. Other countermeasures were taken. “The Latvian ethnic groups include Latvians, Russians, and Belarusians. , Ukrainian, Polish, Lithuanian. In addition, there are Jewish, Estonian and other ethnic groups. Lithuanian, Polish, Russian, Belarusian, Ukrainian, Jewish, Latvian and other ethnic groups have always had complicated ethnic relations. The trigger of the civil war, the masses just lacked a channel for catharsis.”
Thinking of this, Yanayev smiled slightly, "The Soviet Union has enough weapons brought back from hell. We can sell them half and give them half to the people of the three Baltic countries. After all, the democratic world has the right to take up arms to defend their own safety. Then, under the shining spring of democracy, they will find that a safe and stable social environment is much more important than the votes in their hands. Of course, for those who would rather die for votes than live for the food of dictatorship, they are happy. And once the member states betray the Soviet Union, they will bear the risk of civil war and regime subversion. They will think about it slowly."
"But do you really want to do this? Although it is a temporary compromise, once this precedent is set, I am afraid that the member states will be eager to try it next. This method is okay for these three countries, but if it is against Ukraine, our heavy industrial base will be destroyed." Yazov did not expect Yanayev's plan to be more vicious than his. Not only will the three Baltic countries be seriously injured, but they will even have no power to fight back in the next few decades.
"We cannot compromise on other important member states. We must send troops. The West knows very well that Ukraine is not Afghanistan, and they dare not make small moves behind the scenes. So we must act faster than the West, provoke ethnic divisions and conflicts among the three Baltic countries, so that NATO has no time to react, and a civil war will quietly bloom. As long as one of the countries goes to war because of ethnic issues, other turmoil will definitely not be spared." Since the three Baltic countries are unwilling to surrender, Yanayev must let other member states see the consequences of their independence.
Yanayev's approach is just a replica of the prelude to the Crimean War.
"What if NATO intervenes to mediate? If successful, we will not only lose three member states, but also our strategic advantage." Yazov always thinks about the worst side of the problem first. Now the Baltic Sea will become the first chess game between the Soviet Union and Western countries.
"NATO only likes to write blank checks to Eastern European countries. We have enough covert means to overthrow their regimes, and we also have enough means to support a dictator. Although the instability of the member states will directly threaten the security of the Soviet Union, it is much better than the end of being surrounded by enemies and betrayed by all. Thank you very much for your answer, Comrade Yazov. I have something else to do, so I'll take my leave first."
Yanayev stood up and said goodbye to Yazov. He was now rushing back to the Kremlin to formulate a set of strike plans against the three Baltic countries. A feasible carrot and stick policy.
Yazov looked at the back of the Soviet General Secretary who was going away, and said to himself, "I hope we can make up for the mistakes of that idiot Gorbachev now."
Qidian just received the contract today. Let's see if the signing status can be changed. If it is changed, I will prepare for the third update.
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