Soviet Union 1991

Third update

In 1995, Saddam's regime was already in a precarious state. After years of war and suppression by coalition forces, as well as political and military sanctions from the United States and NATO, Saddam's accumulated wealth had been squandered. The Soviet Union further squeezed Iraq in its arms sales operations from 1992 to 1993, and Yanayev was still obsessed with installing an advisory group within Iraq at the last moment. This can at least explain one thing. Both the United States and the Soviet Union will suppress Iraq. Dam was treated as an outcast.

There are people in Moscow who want to continue to increase support for Saddam, but they are blocked by Yanayev. For the Soviet Union, supporting Saddam now is tantamount to supporting Syngman Rhee before the Korean War. Spending foreign exchange on a regime that is destined to lose is better than thinking about how to disrupt the United States' strategic plan in the Middle East. It is very worrying and bad now because Yanayev cannot figure out how the United States will use to break through the chaos in the Middle East.

"Will the Americans personally launch a battle similar to the Gulf War, or will they use proxies to subvert the regimes of various countries in the Middle East? This is a question." Yanayev rubbed his sleepy eyes. The KGB Intelligence Bureau did not stop collecting intelligence for several days. All important intelligence was presented to Yanayev's desk. Whenever he finished processing a batch of documents, he began to analyze the movements of Americans in the Middle East.

"The United States has recently intensified its military exercises with Saudi Arabia. The lineup is larger than ever before. It looks like it is preparing to go to war with Saddam or show off its force in the Middle East. At the same time, the Kurdish region has also begun to Riots are occurring more and more frequently. This group of nationalists who are trying to establish a Kurdish state seem to have made a dirty deal with the United States recently. The KGB Foreign Intelligence Service is trying to get some useful intelligence from the mouths of the PKK. , so that we can be mentally prepared for possible unrest.”

The more Yanayev analyzed, the more frightened Yazov became. He stood up, walked to the map, and circled several areas on it with a pen. "We can see that the countries experiencing turmoil are almost all regimes that have close diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union. Are the Americans' strategic deployment in the Middle East aimed at us?"

"Aiming at the Soviet Union? This is too flattering to us." Yanayev sneered, "He just wants the Soviet Union to trick us when it is at a disadvantage in international politics. Is it possible that the United Nations meeting will be held at that time? Approval of NATO's proposal to bomb Iraq will cause us to vote against them Just stop taking action? No, the United States will never do this. If the Soviet Union and China join forces to deal with the NATO group, there is still a chance. It is a pity that our southern neighbor is not very keen on the Middle East issue, but this cannot be blamed on them. After all, the scope of other people’s interests has not expanded to this extent.”

"So the Middle East issue is a silent contest between us and the United States. Twenty years ago, we would have dared to directly send troops to Iraq to fight hand-to-hand with the U.S. coalition forces, but now we have not even fully solved our own riddled problems. "Thinking of this, Yanayev smiled bitterly and shook his head. He dropped his pen on the table and slowly thought about the future of the Middle East.

It seems that the Arab Spring has become an obvious thing. This is not a strategic mistake of the Soviet Union, but decades of high-pressure policies and oligarchic rule in the Middle East, which have made the social and ethnic contradictions accumulated under the prosperity vague. The United States has only provided a match to the fuse of this giant powder keg.

"General Secretary Yanayev, who are the other conspiracies the United States is targeting?" Yazov did not understand what Yanayev meant.

"Who was the only one who made money during the war? It was the American transnational fire conglomerate. Their weak economy had been waiting for such a lucrative order. So who made money first after the war? ? Comrade Yazov is an American oil interest group. Once the countries in the Middle East become pawns under their control, it will be a nightmare for the Soviet Union’s oil and gas exploration.”

Think about increasing oil production and driving prices to death when the Soviet Union's economy is in difficulty. No one can stop it then. So the Soviet Union intervened or did not intervene. The ending is the same.

"What if we also sell weapons to anti-American regimes and pro-Soviet regimes?" Yazov suddenly said, "In this case, we can also sell weapons to the Middle East. If the Americans personally intervene in the war, they will be attacked by guerrillas If the team's crazy retaliation is through a proxy war, then the Soviet Union can also get a huge war military industry order, isn't it?"

"So Comrade Yazov, do you think that after the United States becomes strong, he will get along well with the Soviet Union? Don't forget that the current performance of the United States is based on the increasingly bad American economy after the Gulf War. Once he becomes a reality The suppression of the Soviet economy and politics will be even worse."

"Now do you know why I am strengthening international economic and political exchanges with Asia, especially with China? It is to cope with the re-formation of the climate in the United States. To cope with the strategic encirclement and attack on us."

"The key is to do everything possible to make the United States suffer a big loss in the inevitable chaos in the Middle East. Before, we had been calculating that the other party might personally take action in Iraq. But Mario was not stupid enough to do that. He eliminated it again After the Gulf War, the most likely scenario is a proxy war.”

This is the conclusion Yanayev came to through a lot of intelligence analysis. If it is a proxy war, it will not be the mode of providing arms to guerrillas to pit teammates in the invasion of Afghanistan, but will return to the stage of two countries hiding behind the sandbox to fight wits and courage. Maybe it will end up being a Pyrrhic victory. Whether the United States will pay a painful price to withdraw from the Middle East politics or the Soviet Union will win at a painful price, the outcome is unknown.

The atmosphere of the conversation fell into a deadlock. Yanayev and Yazov didn't know how to continue the topic for a while. Just when the two fell silent, the door of Yanayev's office suddenly rang. Before he finished asking for someone to come in, Kryuchkov, who was in a hurry, came in with the latest intelligence.

"There have been large-scale riots in northern Iraqi cities, and local * armed forces have been engaged in fierce exchanges of fire with Saddam's army on the streets. The opposition armed forces have now almost occupied the rioting cities, and they have heavy weapons supported by the CIA."

Yanayev took a deep breath, and what should come will come back.

Yazov asked Kryuchkov, "Are you saying that there is a large-scale military riot in Iraq? Is this intelligence accurate?"

"Of course it is accurate. This news will appear on Al Jazeera in a few hours." Kryuchkov said anxiously, and he put a stack of unsorted intelligence on Yanayev's desk.

"The riots came from the northern cities where Kurds gather, and some small towns in the south. The most surprising thing is that the army only arrived slowly after the entire city was captured. It seems that the war was launched with the deliberate connivance of some government officials."

Yanayev's face was a little pale. This intelligence almost overturned some of his previous conclusions. Yanayev bit his lip and looked at the paper cut out on the table. He suddenly realized and said, "So that's it. Mario's setup is not only to launch a proxy war, but also NATO's joint forces will intervene in person. From the double suppression of civilian opposition forces and the US army, Saddam is facing internal and external troubles. Maybe there are big fish hidden in the army that have not surfaced, and they can take advantage of the instability of Saddam's regime to launch a coup."

"This move is really brilliant. I think in a few hours, the NATO group led by the United States will vote on the UN Security Council." (To be continued.)

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