Supreme Stock God

Chapter 772

Zhou Hao’s remarks made everyone present, especially those experts and scholars present, all face changed. Chief Executive Dong and others were naturally surprised by Zhou Hao’s remarks, and at the same time they had to think deeply about the current connections in Hong Kong. The pros and cons of the exchange rate system.

Those experts and scholars are academic leaders in this area. What Zhou Hao just said is the conclusion of their research. However, it was a long period of joint research between them. Zhou Hao can rely on it. Li summed up their painstaking theoretical crystallization and had to surprise them inexplicably.

Naturally, these people present would not know. Zhou Hao was tired of listening to the pros and cons of the "linked exchange rate system" in his previous life, but it was the experience summed up by many experts after the financial turmoil, although Zhou Hao listened. It's easy, but it is the experience that economists finally researched after a long period of research and based on the Hong Kong financial turmoil and the previous Mexican currency crisis.

"It is difficult for the linked exchange rate system to perform its function in the financial crisis. This is easily exploited by those speculators." Zhou Hao said: "Just as Soros attacked the Hong Kong stock market in late October of last year, and now they continue to sell Hong Kong dollars for For example, if they short-selling Hong Kong dollar futures in the market, the forward exchange rate risk premium of the Hong Kong dollar will immediately rise sharply, which will drive up the inter-bank interest rate in the banking system. In order to thwart these foreign exchange speculators, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority tightened money. At that time, the inter-bank lending rate once soared to 300%."

The director of the HKMA, Ren Zhikang, was also present. Hearing Zhou Hao's mention of the incident, his back straightened and his expression became tense.

"Although this kind of high interest rate increases the cost of speculators in foreign exchange, it will also cause severe damage to the stock market. The market is selling like a wave, and the Hang Seng Index plummeted by more than 4,000 points, and then fell on October 28. At more than 1,400 points, although the Sodos group did not make much profit in foreign exchange speculation, they made a fortune in the stock market selling." Zhou Hao shook his head and said, "That’s why I just said that I just borrowed money. Interest rates are simply a temporary solution, not a permanent cure."

After hearing Zhou Hao’s words, Chief Executive Dong and the experts all looked at Ren Zhikang, and now they all know that this simple method of raising the lending rate is really killing the enemy and hurting the enemy by 800, and it will even be used by others. The foreign media referred to Hong Kong as a "super cash machine" for speculators, largely because of this rigid measure.

Ren Zhikang's face was flushed, and he couldn't think of anything to refute Zhou Hao's point of view, especially now that the facts are in front of him, his "any trick" move not only caused great damage to the Hong Kong stock market, but also contributed to the arrogance of Soros and others. arrogance.

Zhou Hao’s voice sounded again: “In fact, don’t blame Director Ren too much. Faced with the attack of the evil wolves of Soros, his reaction is already fast. Don’t you see that the governments of Thailand and Malaysia were killed by those guys. Fortunately It’s our Hong Kong side that Director Ren held the city gate firmly."

At this moment, Zhou Hao’s words really sound like heavenly sounds to Ren Zhikang, and I am inexplicably grateful to Zhou Hao. I can’t wait to kowtow to him in the past. After all, I just fell into such an embarrassing situation. It’s also Zhou. Hao made it by one hand.

And Zhou Hao's "understanding" of Ren Zhikang is even more subtle in Qin Bai's eyes, because this is clearly a profound way of imperialism, one is tight and one loose is proper and not tepid. He was lifted up again by the fall, and his subordinates unknowingly fell down on him. This kind of imperial way is often used by them, or used by upper-level leaders, so they are particularly sensitive.

Both Qin Bai couldn't help but think of some rumors from the central government. The chairman and the prime minister put the burden of Hong Kong in Zhou Hao's hands, and Zhao Jiadui and Zhou Hao fully supported him. Now Zhou Hao has shown again This kind of "imperial mentality" makes it difficult for them to make a guess: This Zhou Hao, will he really be the next-generation successor cultivated above?

Zhou Hao didn't know that his actions by "local forces" in Hong Kong for the sake of the overall situation would make Qin Donghai and Bai Zhengnan have such an association, otherwise he would really sigh the imagination of those high officials.

Zhou Hao, who was focused on this Hong Kong financial war, did not notice the careful thoughts of Qin Bai and the others, and continued to say to everyone present: "Do you know what Julian Robertson cares about Hong Kong most?"

Everyone shook their heads, and Zhou Hao said: "One is the number of tourists visiting Hong Kong, and the other is the overdraft rate of Hong Kong investors."

At this time, another expert was puzzled: "We can understand the investor overdraft rate, because the investor overdraft rate can show the excitement of the stock market. When the overdraft rate reaches an extraordinary rate, the turbulence of the stock market may come. The time is not far away, so the overdraft ratio can be regarded as an inverse indicator. But what does the number of visitors to Hong Kong have to do with these?"

Zhou Hao explained: “Perhaps most people think that the number of visitors to Hong Kong is only one of the more than ten comprehensive indicators that need to be observed to track Hong Kong’s economy and market. But it’s in Julian Robertson, or the Tiger Fund’s In my eyes, the number of tourists visiting Hong Kong has a huge impact on Hong Kong's economy and is an important indicator of their actions against Hong Kong.

First of all, tourists visiting Hong Kong are directly related to Hong Kong’s foreign exchange income, and foreign exchange income is the raw material issued by Hong Kong currency. According to my personal statistics, tourism accounts for more than 40% of Hong Kong’s service exports. Very important supporting role.

In addition, the consumption of visitors to Hong Kong contributes greatly to Hong Kong’s GDP. On the surface, according to the statistics of the Hong Kong Tourism Association, the contribution of visitors’ consumption to Hong Kong’s GDP is only 6%. I estimate that its contribution to GDP is no less than 12.5 percent.

Another point is that visitors to Hong Kong are still a leading indicator of the economy. The number of visitors to Hong Kong can basically infer another important economic activity indicator-the trend of retail consumption. "

After Zhou Hao's explanation, all the talents suddenly realized, Zeng Yingquan also raised his chin and muttered: "The Tiger Fund really deserves its reputation. It sees what others can't see, and uses it as a breakthrough to give the enemy a fatal blow."

"According to me, Zhou Hao is more powerful than Tiger Fund or Julian Robertson." Ren Zhikang smiled and said: "It is difficult to play conspiracies and tricks, but it is even more difficult to break through conspiracies and tricks."

Chief Executive Dong nodded and smiled: "No wonder the chairman and the prime minister ask us more questions about Zhou Hao when we encounter problems. The leaders really see it right."

Compared with these, those experts are more concerned about academic matters. After Zhou Hao showed their "strength", they had long since put aside all their contempt, and immediately gathered around and hurriedly asked: "Zhou, Teacher Zhou, since the linked exchange rate system has such obvious and dangerous drawbacks, How can we improve it? Is it really necessary to abandon the current linked exchange rate system and switch to another exchange rate system?"

Hearing that these experts in their 50s and 60s even called "teachers", Zhou Hao was really dumbfounded, but the question they raised was indeed an economic issue that is vital to Hong Kong, so he said patiently: " In fact, no exchange rate system is suitable for any economic system at any time, because no matter which exchange rate system is implemented, the most important thing is that it must implement the overall macroeconomic policy.

Since its implementation in 1983, the linked exchange rate system has been effective in Hong Kong, and I believe it will continue to play the same role in the future.

As for the switch to other exchange rate systems you mentioned, I think you must have thoroughly studied it. In fact, other exchange rate systems are not the best choice for Hong Kong. I personally think that the current economic system is still Before significant development, the linked exchange rate system was still the most suitable for Hong Kong. "

"But Teacher Zhou, didn't you say that the linked exchange rate system has obvious shortcomings before?" An expert said: "When the next financial storm comes, Hong Kong will still suffer huge losses due to the rigidity of the exchange rate system?"

Zhou Hao smiled and shook his head: "Although we cannot switch to another exchange rate system, we can improve the linked exchange rate system."

Then, everyone present, including Chief Executive Dong, Zeng Yingquan, and Qin Bai, both of the central bank governors, all looked at Zhou Hao with bright eyes, and only heard Zhou Hao say: "We can strengthen the currency board mechanism, which will help create lower levels. The interest rate environment has changed, and the core content of this initiative is to replace the original liquidity adjustment mechanism with a discount window. Under this new arrangement, banks can use Exchange Fund bills and bonds to borrow overnight funds from the HKMA. It can increase the account balance of the banking system several times or even dozens of times in disguise, and increase the bank's liquidity.

The HKMA announces the basic interest rate before the start of each day, which is also indicative of the market. The basic interest rate will become the upper limit of the overnight interest rate. If the overnight interest rate is higher than the basic interest rate, the bank does not need to borrow through interbank in the market, but only Use the Exchange Fund bills on hand to borrow the required overnight funds through the discount window. In this way, the pressure of rising interest rates can be eased. At the same time, the government should also implement some measures to tighten securities and futures supervision, such as preventing short sellers from selling below the market price of stocks, and strengthening investigation and monitoring of illegal short selling , Increase the difficulty of short selling. "

These measures are all improvements made to the linked exchange rate by the Hong Kong government after the financial war in the previous life. They are now used by Zhou Hao.