The Son of Finance of the Great Age

  Chapter 428 Another battlefield

   "Zhong Sheng, what are you thinking? When are we going to enter?"

Seeing that Zhong Shi remained silent for a long time, Ma Jiarui couldn't help but feel a little anxious, and urged in front of everyone, "Everyone here is my own, is there anything else we can't say? We all think that 7000 points is the lowest mark, and now the distance between this number It's not far away, shouldn't we make some preparations? Huh..."

  When his eyes swept over Zhong Shi's computer screen, his words stopped abruptly. This move immediately attracted everyone's attention, and they stepped forward one after another, leaned over to Zhong Shi's seat, and looked down at the computer.

   On Zhongshi’s Bloomberg client, it shows today’s trend of the ruble, a nearly straight curve is very eye-catching.

"Soros and the others are also paying attention to the ruble, this should be part of their plan!" Zhong Shi pointed to the curve on the screen and said, "Everyone probably doesn't know much about Russia's current economic situation, would anyone like to talk about it? "

   Everyone looked at each other in blank dismay, they didn't know how Zhong Shi suddenly changed the topic here. In fact, after withdrawing from the Russian government bond market, Tianyu Fund gave up research on Russia's economic situation, so when Zhong Shi asked, no one could answer.

   "It seems that I just received assistance from the IMF some time ago. Isn't the current situation very optimistic?" After a long silence, Ma Jiarui finally answered.

  As a researcher of macroeconomics, it is a compulsory course to receive information from all over the world every day, so even if you don’t pay much attention to Russia’s economic situation, everyone here has heard the news about the IMF’s assistance to Russia.

  After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Yeltsin became the president of Russia. The former Soviet Union's member countries became independent one after another, but many of them remained in the Russian Federation. Therefore, this strange combination was also called the "CIS".

  Due to the long-term emphasis on heavy industry and neglect of light industry in the Soviet Union, the Soviet Union's economic system was seriously inverted. After the disintegration, President Yeltsin of the Russian Federation accepted the advice of American economists and launched an economic policy called "shock therapy".

  The main measures of this policy are: tightening fiscal and monetary policies, reducing government spending, canceling subsidies, liberalizing prices, opening markets to the outside world, privatizing public enterprises, and so on.

   It must be explained that "shock therapy" is not a conspiracy implemented by the Western society against Russia, but an economic rescue strategy that was successfully implemented in Bolivia in the 1980s. The reason why the implementation in Russia failed is because of various reasons, but the most important reason is that the political situation in Russia is unstable, which leads to the incoherent implementation of government policies before and after.

  The fierce criticism of "shock therapy" in later generations mainly focused on privatization, because the Russian government at that time divided the state-owned enterprises left over from the Soviet Union into several equal shares and distributed them equally to the citizens. But it is undeniable that ordinary people lack foresight. Privatized securities worth 10,000 rubles were far less attractive than a bottle of vodka in Russia at the time, so many farsighted people took the opportunity to buy up ordinary people. When the privatized securities in the hands finally accumulate to a certain amount, an oligopoly will emerge.

The incoherence of policy implementation also made Russia's economic situation worse at that time. The crazy currency issuance caused the ruble to depreciate rapidly, which has completely violated the original intention of "shock therapy", and eventually led to Russia's "shock therapy". Failed.

  Subsequently, due to the failure of "shock therapy", the Russian government began to make up for the fiscal deficit by issuing national debt on a large scale. However, due to the serious depreciation of the domestic ruble, the Russian government can only attract investors by raising interest rates. The rediscount rate of Russia's central bank has remained above 30% for a long time, which has kept the inter-bank discount rate, interest rate, and loan interest rate at a relatively high level.

  When the annual interest rate exceeds 30%, foreign funds are frantically pouring into the Russian market, which greatly eases Russia's financial situation.

   But this kind of borrowing that exceeds the interest rate cannot be maintained for a long time, because the increase in taxation cannot reach the corresponding level, and the creditworthiness of the Russian government's national debt will be questioned, which in turn will lead to the risk of default. At the same time, if the ruble cannot maintain its current fixed exchange rate, foreign funds invested in Russia will also withdraw due to panic.

  The Asian financial turmoil that occurred in 1997 affected not only the East Asian region, but the entire global market, and the Russian currency market was the first to bear the brunt.

  Due to widespread panic, European and American funds have withdrawn from the Russian market one after another. Although Russia does not borrow much, the share of internal and external debts only accounts for 44% of the total GDP, not even half of it. However, because the debt repayment time is too concentrated, there is no room for the government to buffer more, so the issue of Russia's bond default was immediately brought to the table.

   Therefore, while Russia is actively saving itself, it also seeks help from the international community. On July 13, organizations such as the IMF and the World Bank promised to jointly inject up to 23 billion U.S. dollars into Russia to help Russia overcome the current difficulties.

   Now it seems that Russia's national debt repayment problem has been solved, but then came the ruble crisis.

In order to ensure the ruble's fixed exchange rate system, Russia has spent billions of dollars to defend the ruble in the past two months, because only when the value of the ruble is stable, investors will be willing to come to Russia, otherwise Russia's fiscal deficit will have no way to make up up.

   Now there are two problems facing the Russian government: the first is to use the first aid from the IMF to repay the principal and interest of the national debt, and the second is to invest funds in the battle to defend the ruble. Regardless of which item, it is of great importance, involving the direction of huge funds.

"Zhong Sheng, what do you mean?" Ma Jiarui quickly digested the information, and then came to a conclusion that shocked him, "Soros and the others are not only staring at the current Hong Kong market, but also paying attention to the Russian ruble. An attack was launched?"

"That's right!" Zhong Shi nodded, with a serious expression on his face, "Just imagine, if the Russian ruble suddenly depreciates, it will definitely cause a global chain reaction, not only in bordering Europe, but also in countries far away across the ocean. The U.S. market will also be severely impacted, and what will happen to the Hong Kong stock market, which is difficult to stay out of the matter?"

"what?!"

  Everyone except Zhongshi was shocked. They have never thought about this possibility. In fact, they have not delved into the reason why Soros and others chose to attack the Hong Kong stock market in August. Now after hearing from Zhong Shi, they realized that the international speculators headed by Soros spent so much effort in choosing the timing of the attack.

  For a while, everyone's thoughts changed sharply, and their faces darkened in unison.

"If this is the case, then do we still have a chance of winning?" After a long time, Ren Ruowei said with lingering fear, "Even the timing is so particular, it seems that they are bound to win. Not bad We haven’t entered the market yet, so let’s take the opportunity to short, or just sit on the sidelines. If we really want to fight them head-on, I’m afraid this time we will lose a lot.”

  Because it is not clear that Zhongshi has reached an agreement with the Hong Kong government, and Tianyu Fund has not really entered the market, so Ren Ruowei proposed this proposal at this time, and it was unanimously agreed by others.

"No!" Zhong Shi naturally categorically vetoed this. At this time, he had no way to turn back. "Even if the Russian currency collapses, we cannot retreat. In fact, the day the Russian ruble collapsed, It should be the best time for us to enter! Do you understand?"

   "Why?" In addition to Zhong Shi, the others asked in unison.

This time, Zhong Shi did not answer immediately, but instead looked at everyone with a playful face, and said in confusion: "I believe you should have a general understanding. The devaluation of the Russian ruble has formed strong expectations. It’s only one hour away now, it should be like this! And once the ruble is announced to depreciate, please think about it, besides the Hang Seng market in Hong Kong, which market or financial product contains great risk?”

  For the financial market, risk means return. The greater the risk, the greater the possible return. These people are naturally familiar with this common sense. Therefore, after thinking about it for less than a minute, several people said in unison: "Russian government bond market!"

   "Not bad!" Zhong Shi slapped his thigh, stood up, and walked towards the window. At this time, his whole body was filled with an inexplicable self-confidence, which unconsciously infected several other people, making them relax unconsciously, "If the Russian ruble announces the devaluation, it means that they The government gave up saving the ruble. At that time, the entire market will focus on their national debt, and whether they will default will become the top priority of the entire market. Although the Hong Kong market will be impacted in the short term due to this, because the market has been negative So for the Hong Kong market, this is very likely to be a turning point."

"Although on that day, international speculators will definitely attack the Hong Kong dollar market and the Hong Kong stock market crazily, but the Hong Kong dollar market has the support of the Hong Kong government, so it should not be a big problem. And we will take the opportunity to save the market in the name of the Hong Kong stock market when it is at its lowest. Come and enter the Hong Kong stock market. In this way, we can not only buy the bottom, but also get a good reputation, isn’t it killing two birds with one stone?”

"For the entire international speculators, the funds they can use should not exceed 100 billion U.S. dollars, and the real investment in the market should be around 80 billion U.S. dollars. The Russian market should be able to share tens of billions of U.S. dollars, and the Hong Kong dollar market can bear hundreds of billions of dollars. 100 million US dollars, and the remaining ones that can short Hong Kong stocks and Hang Seng Index futures are only 20 to 30 billion US dollars. Combined with our funds and other funds, they should be able to resist. And most importantly, I believe The central government will not sit idly by and ignore the situation in Hong Kong."

   After finishing speaking, Zhong Shi had a smile on his face. This strategy has been planned in his mind for a long time, and he only said it now, just at the time set by the international speculators, it can be said that he has exhausted the opponent's routine. Coupled with the hole card in the center, it should be a sure thing.

Although he knew very well that in the last world, the international speculators were indeed defeated by the Hong Kong government, but this time, he replaced the Hong Kong government as a new force to fight against the international speculators. How the government operates is completely unaware, so even Zhong Shi himself has some confidence shaken. However, after truly understanding the other party's intentions, now Zhong Shi regained some confidence.

"That's good, but there's just one problem!" Ma Jiarui, Ren Ruowei and the others looked at each other for more than ten minutes, before Ma Jiarui said, "Zhong Sheng, can you be sure that they won't transfer funds to Hong Kong? Launch a more violent attack on Hong Kong stocks and the Hong Kong dollar?"

"If the Russian ruble falls, the risk of default on its national debt will immediately increase countless times. At that time, the face value of Russian national debt will deviate significantly from the price, and the yield may reach more than 100%. And then the game will be between Russia and the West. You said that with such a high rate of return, would they be willing to transfer funds over?"

Zhong Shi immediately retorted. Seeing the pensive expressions on the faces of the two, he added, "Perhaps you are not clear. Just after Russia received the first IMF bailout, the Russian Duma (Parliament) reiterated that , will not accept the economic reform conditions proposed by the IMF. They are planning to fight the Western world to the end!"

"So..." Everyone suddenly realized, and Ren Ruowei said quickly, "The next thing is the game between the Western society and Russia. Others, including international speculators, can't get involved, so they can only bet on one side. ?”

"Yes, after all, it is a country with nuclear weapons!" Zhong Shi nodded, "At that time, first, the market's attention will be distracted, and second, it will reduce our financial pressure. Speaking of which, we should thank Russia, they are now It is the protagonist of the market, and we are just supporting roles among the supporting roles.”

"In addition, I have a plan to divide the camp of international speculators." Having said this, Zhong Shi looked at the night scene that was gradually lighting up outside the window, with a strange smile on his mouth, "I believe some people must be very interested !"

Although they really wanted to know what Zhong Shi's plan was, seeing that he had no intention of saying it, Ma Jiarui and Ren Ruowei had no choice but to put away their curiosity, cast their gazes out of the window, and enjoy the beautiful night view of Victoria Harbor together with Zhong Shi .

   Thanks to the book friends for drawing a knife and breaking the oil, throwing 110 and voting for the monthly pass! The author has been cheering on the code words, I hope everyone will support a lot, thank you~

  (end of this chapter)