The Son of Finance of the Great Age

  Chapter 438 Each Demonstrates His Abilities (Part 1)

  That’s right, Greenspan is a heavyweight standing on Wall Street’s platform. It is a heavy blow they sent back to the Hong Kong government’s rescue of the market, and it also represents the attitude of the US government to a certain extent.

  Of course, Greenspan's speech scale is well grasped, basically controlled on the economic level, and in his capacity, it is not easy to say political things. But even so, his criticism of the Hong Kong government's rescue of the market caused an uproar in the global government and economic circles.

   Who is Greenspan? The famous chairman of the Federal Reserve has been in control of the Federal Reserve for ten years, and the three US presidents have trusted him. With his promotion, the US economy is facing a strong growth climax, which has lasted for a long time. For three years, analysts have judged that the growth rate of the US economy is far from over.

  The growth of the U.S. economy has also driven the growth of the world economy. Therefore, there is no exaggeration in the market, saying that the chairman of the Federal Reserve is not only the "God of Wealth" of the United States, but also the "God of Wealth" of the world.

  With the rapid economic growth, Greenspan's personal prestige and influence on the market also rapidly expanded, which also made him become more and more careful about his words and deeds. And this kind of cautiousness is even more vividly reflected in his public speeches-the language is vague, and he doesn't know what it means. While the markets are still frantically following his public statements, even Wall Street's savviest economists can't guarantee they'll be able to interpret them correctly.

   "If you think you understand exactly what I said, then you must have misunderstood what I said!" Greenspan himself explained.

  But this time, he took a clear stand to criticize the Hong Kong government's bailout behavior, and publicly predicted that the Hong Kong government would not succeed, which surprised market observers. While they were puzzled, they also broke into a cold sweat for the Hong Kong government.

   Sure enough, after Greenspan made a statement about the Hong Kong government’s rescue of the market, other institutions and prestigious individuals followed up and criticized the Hong Kong government like a tide.

The "Wall Street Journal" criticized the Hong Kong government's rescue behavior in a large article, and its headline was even more sensational, "Hong Kong Made a Big Mistake!" And Stanley Company published a related research report at the first time, with pages as high as 35, in this report, Stanley's analysts believe that the behavior of the Hong Kong government is "all-or-nothing", which is no different from gambling. If the Hong Kong government fails in the end, it will not only hand over the hard-earned money of Hong Kong people to international speculators, but also lose the initiative to defend the currency, and may even lead to the final failure of the linked exchange rate system.

Milton Friedman, Nobel laureate in economics, founder of the "Money School" and professor at the University of Chicago, also criticized: "...the government's intervention in the market created an extremely bad precedent, and its consequences may be infinite. .Even if the Hong Kong government can defeat the international speculators in the end, Hong Kong’s status as an international financial center will be damaged, and investors will be scared away because of this behavior of not only making games but also participating in them. Hugely hurt by his decision..."

Friedman's remarks were fairly pertinent, but another Nobel laureate, Morton Miller, was not polite. He pointed out that someone in the Hong Kong government should be responsible for this, and even in an interview with reporters , He suggested: "The Hong Kong government should fire the senior officials who made this decision as soon as possible, and send a positive message to the market to correct the mistakes made before."

  Of course, besides them, there are many economists who have criticized Hong Kong’s bailout behavior, but some of them are purely academic, and some have the same malicious intentions as the Wall Street Journal and Stanley & Co.

  For a while, critics came one after another, and most of them were well-known figures or institutions, which made the chief executive and decision-making Cen Yinquan feel more pressure.

  Although these criticisms can't change anything, the tricks used by speculators make the Hong Kong government really feel troublesome!

   Not long after the so-called "Hong Kong government" entered the market, the rating agency Standard & Poor's hinted that it may lower Hong Kong's foreign exchange sovereign rating at the end of the month. They claimed that because the Hong Kong government intervened in the Hong Kong stock market and futures market, it changed the structure of Hong Kong's foreign exchange reserves, thereby increasing the risk of defending the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate and weakening the Hong Kong government's financial support. Standard & Poor's hinted that it may downgrade the long-term foreign exchange and short-term foreign exchange ratings of Hong Kong from A+ and A1+ to A and A1 respectively. The outlook may turn negative. S&P also signaled that it could downgrade Hong Kong again in the near term if the Hong Kong dollar's pegged exchange rate falters, or if the government's actions further reduce fiscal support for the currency.

  If the previous criticisms of celebrities and politicians can still be regarded as academic discussions, then the threat of rating agencies is now a sharp sword, which is directly placed on the neck of the Hong Kong government. Because the grades of the underlying objects such as debt, credit, and currency have declined, they will face a series of risks such as financing, default, and confidence, which will eventually affect all aspects of economic life.

  Of course, since there are criticisms, there are also voices of support. A group of financiers, rich people, economists and ordinary citizens headed by the mainland and Hong Kong expressed their warm welcome to the Hong Kong government's bailout.

  The richest man Li Jiacheng said that he himself fully supports the Hong Kong government's approach, but he does not comment on whether this matter is right or wrong. "We had no choice," he said in an interview. In the interview, he also revealed that he did not lend out the shares of Changhe Industrial that he had in hand. He did not sell short in the past, did not do so now, and will not do so in the future.

  An official surnamed Chen from the Administrative Bureau said that the reason why the Hong Kong government made such a bold move was entirely because international speculators stirred up trouble and disrupted the normal financial order in Hong Kong. Therefore, the Hong Kong government must take necessary intervention measures. He also said that the Hong Kong government's actions came too late and should have been taken earlier.

Some anonymous commentators wrote in newspapers: "...Looking around the world today, the purely free market principle only exists in the minds of economists and in textbooks. When any government is threatened by the national economic foundation and the fundamental interests of the people, They are all responsible for taking necessary and reasonable intervention actions, otherwise they will be dereliction of duty....The government’s intervention in the market is an extraordinary measure, which will inevitably make some outsiders have doubts about the operation of Hong Kong’s financial market and make Hong Kong an international financial center. Lost color. But the Hong Kong government’s doing so is also “the lesser of two evils”...Although the U.S. government keeps praising the renminbi and the Hong Kong dollar for their undefeated, a considerable part of the international speculators making waves in Hong Kong’s financial market are from U.S. capital backgrounds. Who knows the key At all times, the United States will support Hong Kong, or will it push Hong Kong in turn..."

  …

   "The newspapers are so lively!" Ma Jiarui threw down a newspaper and shook his head in admiration, "The influence of this incident has not disappeared. It's really 'I'll come on stage after you sing'. It's so lively!"

A full week after the "Hong Kong government" "acknowledged" the rescue of the market, the newspapers were still full of reports about this matter. Now Tianyu Fund's biggest pastime every day is to read such news, and even Zhongshi doesn't exception.

Ren Ruowei took the newspaper, read it carefully from beginning to end, then grinned, and said to Zhong Shi who had just entered the door with a smile: "Director Cen, President Ren should treat you to dinner, look!" He raised his eyebrows. The newspaper in Yang's hand, "Boss, how much pressure have you shared for them!"

   "I'm afraid they don't have the heart to treat me to dinner!"

Zhong Shi took off his suit, hung it on the hanger, and loosened the tie around his neck, then took the newspaper in Ren Ruowei's hand, glanced roughly, and said to the two people who were looking at each other: "You know what? During this period of time, the speculators have increased their efforts to sell Hong Kong dollars, and now Cen Yinquan and Ren Yigang are so busy that they are constantly watching the real-time price of the Hong Kong dollar, for fear that the speculators will break through the 7.750 barrier if they are not careful!"

"Really?" Ma Jiarui's expression changed drastically, and after he frowned and thought for a while, he asked puzzledly, "It is said that after the rescue of the market, many hedge funds have begun to retreat, and they have gradually withdrawn from the Hong Kong dollar market. Make up your position and prepare to leave. Zhong Sheng, your news is really surprising!"

"It's really surprising!" Zhong Shi nodded, and after taking another look at Ren Ruowei, who was also dignified, he continued, "The focus of the problem is not on those small hedge funds. In fact, as long as Quantum Fund If Tiger Fund and Tiger Fund do not retreat, even if others retreat, as long as they raise their arms, they may enter the market again soon. Therefore, the HKMA does not dare to be careless.”

"According to their inferences, the current international speculators have sold at least nearly 200 billion Hong Kong dollars in positions. With the stock market unable to get any benefits for the time being, they have shifted their focus to the Hong Kong dollar spot market and are ready to take advantage of the two markets again. The linkage effect between them will depress the index and achieve their goal of shorting Hong Kong stocks.”

"200 billion Hong Kong dollars? My God!" Ren Ruowei let out a low voice, his face turned pale, "What a huge number, just the daily interest... Let me do the math...at least tens of millions So much!"

  He didn't say the specific number, but this time is enough for others to calculate an approximate number. Therefore, Ma Jiarui's expression also changed.

"Your calculations are correct! It should be expected that the Hong Kong government will raise the lending rate in the next few days to hit them. At that time, it may cause bad news for the stock market, so we have to take advantage of this opportunity Take in more bargaining chips!" Zhong Shi said expressionlessly.

  Since entering the market on a large scale on the 14th, Tianyu Fund has launched a fierce competition with speculators on various major stocks. On the 18th, because Russia announced the depreciation of the ruble, which caused global market shocks, Tianyu Fund entered the market again with 2 billion Hong Kong dollars, and together with investors whose confidence was boosted by the "Hong Kong government" bailout, raised the Hang Seng Index to 7250 point. In the next few trading days, Tianyu Fund successively invested more than five billion Hong Kong dollars, and together with investors, raised the stock market to 7845 points.

   So far, Tianyu Fund has spent a total of more than 15 billion Hong Kong dollars in funds to raise the Hong Kong stock index from the lowest point of 6544 to the current 7845 points, a full increase of nearly 1300 points.

Although the market is improving, as the index gradually rises, Zhong Shi’s mood becomes more and more heavy. He even lost his temper inexplicably in the trading hall several times, which makes many people feel at a loss and do not understand the problem. Where is it.

  The stock market is a very strange place. This strangeness is reflected in the tortuous and fluctuating stock prices, but its essence is people's hearts. After the "Hong Kong government" came out to save the market, the whole market was boiling. Therefore, on the 18th, although the European and American stock markets plummeted, international speculators took advantage of this to launch a new climax of short selling Hong Kong stocks. Overwhelmed investors no longer left short-selling opportunities for international speculators, and entered the market to buy one after another. As a result, the Hang Seng Index fell by only a mere 13 points on this day, and Tianyu Fund only used 1.3 billion Hong Kong dollars in shares.

  Because investors swarmed in, the cost of Tianyu Fund's entry increased significantly, which also made Tianyu Fund's traders start to be cautious. They didn't want to be a stepping stone for others.

  Therefore, every chance that Hong Kong stocks may fall will be an opportunity for Tianyu Fund to enter the market on a large scale!

Since the Hong Kong stock market has recovered to a level that is more recognized by the market, the opponent of Tianyu Fund at this time is no longer the crazy selling by international speculators, but a game of how to compete with those investors who flock in to grab market share up.

  In this game, small and medium-sized investors are fools, and they will fall wherever the wind blows. The most important thing is that for those who focus on the short-term, every penny earned is not the profit of listed companies, nor is it the price difference caused by good expectations for the future, but every penny invested by Tianyu Fund. gold and silver.

   This was something Zhongshi hadn't expected before.

  And if not enough bargaining chips are obtained, Zhong Shi’s funds may be locked up at a high level. Although what he said to Cen Yinquan, Ren Yigang and others is to work hard to protect the market, he is absolutely unwilling to do it in this way. And Cen Yinquan and Ren Yigang might have already calculated this possibility, so they agreed to him so happily.

   If you are accidentally placed, no one will be happy.

"This is really the Eight Immortals crossing the sea, each showing their magical powers!" Shaking his head, Zhong Shi tried hard to expel this annoyance from his head, and then regained his normal state of mind, "Get ready to open the market! Let's observe the market today Get ready to shoot again!"

   Thanks to book friend Pudding*cat for voting monthly! Thank you for your strong support, new and old book friends. Although there are many things that make the author busy and troubled, I still have to stick to it as much as possible~

  (end of this chapter)