What’s Wrong With Me Being a Rich Man?

Chapter 107 Expectations

Yu Xing spent two days in anticipation, always paying attention to and thinking about the changes in Focus Media's stock price.

However, although Focus Media's stock price fluctuates around $15, it does not seem to have been affected by the peak, but is still due to changes in the overall economic environment and market.

The stock price of Focus Media has been falling throughout 2008. Its peak stock price in November 2007 was US$65.1, with a market value of nearly US$8 billion. The already slow-down stock price fell to US$20 after the financial crisis, with only 20 market value remaining. More than $100 million.

Entering January this year, Focus Media's stock price has not kept the level, has entered the range of 15+ US dollars, and its market value has also fallen from the 2 billion US dollars mark.

With such a decline, the negative news from unknown research companies in Xiangjiang and some media seems to make it feel too lice, and there is no response at all, and there is no official response on the surface.

"Xiaoying, seeing Focus Media's decline so much, I suspect that even if we don't short, we can make a profit by buying PUT..." Yu Xing was a little helpless during the call with Liu Wanying.

"Are you going to talk to someone who has lost a lot of money in the financial market?" Liu Wanying asked Boss Yu for his opinion.

Yu Xing said with a funny look: "Don't look down on yourself, you're all dependent on the market, you won't blame you."

Liu Wanying also said with a rare worry: "In theory, our detailed research report is released. If the attorney in the United States contacts the SEC, the stock price of Focus Media will inevitably fall, but I am a little worried that Focus Media's stock price has fallen too hard, but instead I take it. Not much profit."

Yu Xing said firmly: "Impossible!"

Liu Wanying asked, "What are your opinions? Have you understood the calculation formulas you posted before?"

"I haven't studied it clearly, but I can see from a logical point of view that Focus Media still has a market value of more than one billion US dollars. If there is a problem of financial fraud, how can it not be affected?" Yu Xing expressed his confidence, "If you care, you will be confused. Even if SEC doesn’t move before the New Year, it will move sooner or later after the New Year.”

Liu Wanying was silent for a while and sighed quietly: "Yes, the reason is this, but if the SEC does not move, I will have to be nervous this year. PUT was bought on March 20, and there is plenty of time no matter how you calculate it."

PUT is a put option, a common method of shorting and profitability, and its nature is a right.

That is, once you buy, you have the right to sell a certain stock at the agreed price and quantity for a certain period of time.

Just like Focus Media's PUT, Liu Wanying bought the PUT from a brokerage firm, and agreed to expire on March 20, with the exercise price of US$12.5 and the option fee paid was US$2.5 per share.

This means that no matter how much the stock price of Focus Media falls, she can sell the stock at $12.5.

If the action of crossing the mountain takes effect, the stock price of Focus Media will suddenly fall to $5. The whole process is that Liu Wanying buys $5 in the Nasdaq circulation market and still sells it at $12.5 in the brokerage firm, making a profit $7.50.

Of course, in actual operations, Liu Wanying does not need to buy stocks in the market to exercise rights. The brokerage firm will automatically handle this process. What she receives is the difference in cash income.

Buy PUT → fall in stock price → exercise → make a profit. Liu Wanying does not need to actually own stocks, and the price she pays is option money.

Focus Media's option bonus is US$2.5 per share, while a standard PUT is 100 shares, and the cost is US$250.

According to the current stock price of $15, the $250 leverages 100 shares worth $1,500, and uses low costs to gain high returns.

However, the future of stocks is always unpredictable. If the right is not exercised or the PUT is not traded, the $250 will be wasted.

What Kuoshanfeng is doing now is to suppress the stock price and create room for profit from exercising rights.

Yu Xing received a detailed explanation from Liu Wanying, and even had relevant formulas from the BSM model to discuss the unreasonable pricing of PUT option funds by securities companies, but it is indeed a bit complicated.

He is happy to learn new knowledge, but the short-term Treasury bond interest rates in the Black Scholes Morton model, the annualized volatility of the underlying asset price, the cumulative distribution function of the standard normal distribution... always makes people want to make it more Focus is shifted to corporate affairs.

"The financing matter is not as easy as I thought, but Shen Nanpeng from Sequoia wrote back to me, and maybe I could talk about it before the New Year." Yu Xing and Liu Wanying expressed their feelings to each other, "However, after seeing the mountains and taking action, Xiaoying , Have you ever considered forming an equity private equity fund like Shen Nanpeng and Xu Xin? "

Liu Wanying laughed in silence: "Your idea changes every once in a while. Don't let me run a small consulting company? Now, when you see the style of an investor, do you want me to do it again?"

"I haven't seen it before, but now I've seen it. It's really good, but it seems to be that good." Yu Xing smiled, "I saw Xu Xin that day, and my first thought after I came out was that I, Xiaoying, was so bad. ? ”

Liu Wanying said bluntly: "No interest, no resources."

"If Focus Media's money makes a profit and we can't find a second goal in a short time, what are your money going to do? I think you can try it." Yu Xing instigated, "Or, you are not interested, I will learn from Shen Nanpeng. , I also set up a private equity fund. If you have money, would you be my LP? ”

LP is a partner of Limited Partner, who provides funds to private equity firms.

Liu Wanying thought for a while: "If I can make a lot of money, I can invest some for you and be an LP, that's fine."

"Hello, LP." Yu Xing said seriously, "Did you spend the New Year this year at my house?"

Liu Wanying was confused and didn't know how to transfer her career planning to New Year's arrangements at once.

She thought about it for a moment and had to sigh, "It's really boring that you're confusing the abbreviation like this."

"Is that true? If you don't act as my LP, I will ask the teacher to introduce me to the LP during the Chinese New Year." Yu Xing smiled, "Xiaoying, are you looking forward to the moment when you succeed in short selling?"

Liu Wanying suddenly remembered something, and it seemed that she had probably talked about love and love when she successfully shorted.

She asked back, "Aren't you waiting for my brother to introduce you?"

"Yes, I learned to learn from someone else Shen Nanpeng to build a fund, and asked the teacher to introduce me to the fund partners, and then invest the money to Bai Xiaosheng." Yu Xing joked, "If you succeed in shorting, you don't have a place to go for your money, so it's better to just do it. Don’t you expect Bai Xiaosheng?”

"Boss Yu, I said why did you urge me to build a fund? Before this has succeeded, you have set your mind on my money." Liu Wanying suddenly realized, "I just don't know, your mouth is about investors. Is it useful? ”

"Why is it useless? Xiaoying, I think this shorting will definitely be successful, and there is nothing more solid than counting the screens myself." Yu Xing said seriously, "If I want, I will be able to go from Xu Xin a few days ago if I want to." After raising money, Shen Nanpeng also said he wanted to see it. Think about it, if you are willing to invest money, you are investing in a project that Xu Xin and Shen Nanpeng have examined."

He said his plan: "If Capital and Sequoia can't give the price I want today, I will use the money invested by Focus Media first and then find them next round."

Liu Wanying was amused and crying: "Now this is the project that Xu Xin and Shen Nanpeng have examined? If you meet other investors next round, do you have to use this banner?"

"Is there any problem?" Yu Xing said with confidence, "I just signed the capital today."

Liu Wanying thought about it: "You really want to invest the short money? Although I invested in an angel round, right? Are you so confident to do Bai Xiaosheng?"

"Even if it cannot be listed, early money can bring returns." Yu Xing said confidently.

Bai Xiaosheng's model is no problem.

This can be referred to as "Maimai" company. Although it is not listed, Maimai's D round can raise US$200 million, with a valuation of more than US$1 billion, which is naturally much higher than that of Baixiaosheng now. Advertising, users, and recruitment, the revenue structure is very clear.

What's more, there will be a wave of PCs turning to mobile in the next few years.

Yu Xing felt that no matter how much he did, as long as he grasped this model and direction, he would not even be able to make back the money he invested. He would really not be able to open up a new world. He would sell the company directly like "Guiai.com". He would probably get cold. financial freedom.

With such a bottom line, as the company grows, the more users, the more experience, and the bigger the team, the more Yu Xing wants.

Seeing that there was no sound on the other end of the phone, Yu Xing tentatively said, "Or, you are still idle during the Chinese New Year anyway. I'll send you a letter of intent for financing?"

The procedure that should be taken must be taken.

Liu Wanying put away her thoughts and ended the call: "Let your teacher introduce you to LP and let LP read your letter of intent."

Yu Xing put down his phone and felt that Xiaoying would be more likely to have a temper after she lost her job.

He thought about short selling and financing for a while, and waited for the third leader Zhong Zhiling to be pushed back.

Zhong Zhiling was not idle when he returned to Shencheng, so he continued to focus on targeted promotion work, hoping to give the company a little more weight to raise funds.

When he walked into the president's office, the first thing he saw was the formula deduction on the whiteboard.

No mistakes, one song, one content, one in 6, one book, one bar, one reading!

"Huh? Brother Xing, what are you?" Zhong Zhiling looked at it for a few seconds and said strangely, "Is this a cumulative distribution function of a standard normal distribution?"

"Oh, the graduate school student is here." Yu Xing smiled, "You are good at math."

"A special normal distribution, with the mean value of 0 and the standard deviation of 1. I almost went to the mathematics department back then." Zhong Zhiling sat down and handed over the work report.

Yu Xing flipped through it casually. The above is the latest weekly ground promotion results of the five cities, with an average of 150-200 new users a day.

As the Chinese New Year approaches, Bai Xiaosheng needs to make a rough plan for the coming year.

"When our money is in place and cooperate with brand promotion, your work will definitely be easier." Yu Xing said, "Well, let's work overtime tomorrow, discuss the recent work, and your work will definitely be qualified. , the website operation atmosphere is also good, and Xiaoying's job is also qualified."

With the growth and stability of users, a large part of the content that has emerged in Bai Xiaosheng in the past week is compared with year-end bonuses and New Year’s goods from different companies.

This is what Yu Xing is happy to see, and it is also the direction that Lu Haiying strives to promote.

Although it is positioned as a platform for social and workplace topics in the workplace, Bai Xiaosheng's main actions since its launch are still "workplace topics", and has successively produced major topics such as "college student employment", "Internet marriage and love industry", and "laid off employees and insurance policies with the city", successfully The total number of users reaches 100,000+.

The activity of these users is definitely the highest when the topic appears, and then it will obviously fall.

One important task Bai Xiaosheng needs to do now is to transform it into common small topics and cultivate a spontaneous social atmosphere for users.

The New Year is a good node. Things that people in the workplace are closely concerned about, such as year-end bonuses, New Year’s goods, job-hopping after the holiday, etc., are not as explosive as big topics, but they are enough to maintain good daily active users.

This is a good phenomenon in website development, and it is as continuous as the "college student employment" at a fixed time every year.

Lu Haiying has made relevant plans, including New Year, Spring Recruitment, Autumn Recruitment, Mid-Autumn Festival, selection of companies that users like, list of companies with the most negative reviews, and industry salary disclosure and other topic activities.

In addition to the topics that are very likely to appear in anonymity, the activity soil and drainage mechanism of website users form a framework.

"Brother Feng, he has shed blood for the company and his job is qualified. His girlfriend has just arrived and her budget has not been settled, so there is no need to evaluate it."

"After we calculate the New Year, it seems that my job is not qualified enough, and the money that should be raised has not been raised for a long time."

Yu Xing reflected on it.

Zhong Zhiling hurriedly said, "Brother Xing, if we had no guidance from you, how could our work be qualified? If they don't invest in financing, it will be their loss."

Yu Xing gave a thumbs up and gave an injection to prevent it: "Xiaoying is also helping us continue to find money. If today's capital and Sequoia do not have very good conditions, they can't rush to get their money."

Zhong Zhiling vaguely felt that this was the focus of the senior brother's speech.

He hesitated for a moment and asked, "Brother Xing, is there any bad news from Capital and Sequoia today?"

Yu Xing shook his head: "No, I'm still waiting."

As soon as he finished speaking, he received a message on his mobile phone on his desk. It was Shen Nanpeng from Sequoia. He invited Bai Xiaosheng's team to meet and chat, but the location was the surprising Today's Capital Office.

"Okay, the new news is coming, Shen Nanpeng is going to meet and chat." Yu Xing thought for a while and said, "But he actually met us at Xu Xin. This is indeed bad news. The two have a good relationship. Did you communicate in advance?”

Zhong Zhiling naturally had no answer.

Yu Xing also did not intend to get the answer, but felt that according to this situation, the price given by Shen Nanpeng would definitely not be able to increase.

He casually analyzed the tacit understanding between the two institutions.

Zhong Zhiling asked worriedly, "What should we do?"

"The worst condition is to take 30% of the shares by US$2 million, which is actually acceptable." Yu Xing said slowly, "But what I want to strive for is 20% of the financing of US$3 million, if it can fall to the upper limit. The amount is OK, if you don't give it at all, it's a bit... "

The valuation of the upper and lower limits is more than twice as different.

He thought for a long time and said, "Look at the meeting on the 18th. They will add OnePlus. Let's have a good New Year. They won't add at all, so we will delay it until after the New Year..."

If Xiaoying gets a result, then whoever she loves, she can just wait for the next round if she wants to.

Shen Nanpeng made an appointment on January 18, which means there is still one week left before the New Year. The lawyer Liu Wanying was looking for will take action on January 17, US time. At the same time, the official website of Guoshanfeng will soon release the full version of the research report.

Yu Xing breathed a sigh and slapped his right hand on his desk: "There are so many domestic institutions, and they can't treat one dollar as two dollars, so don't worry!"

No hurry, Capital and Sequoia China have a tacit understanding today, and Focus Media is still waiting to invest money!

(End of this chapter)