Reborn Entrepreneurial Giant.

Chapter 104 Wu Hongning returns to China

When the time came to May 2007, Wu Hongning made significant progress in investigating the real estate market in the United States, and paid attention to CDS and CDO.I won’t explain what these two things are. Simply understand that CDS is insurance, and CDO is a fixed-income security. The specific function is to allow insurance companies to bear the risk of falling house prices and lose money to investors who buy insurance.

"Wall Street is so crazy!" Wu Hongning murmured to himself, why did Qu Li easily discover so many problems when he arrived in Silicon Valley, and how could he achieve something by working so hard?You also need to collect more information and buy some CDS products, and you can make money no matter what.

The crazy thing about CDS is spam, that is, the same house can be included in more than ten CDS products. If the owner of this house defaults, the bank will lose $20, and the insurance company may need to pay more than 200 million in compensation.If the real estate crashes and 10 people default on their contracts at the same time, then the cumulative total is $2000 billion?It’s an astronomical number...

However, the reality may be even crueler. AIG (the world's largest insurance company at the time) alone suffered losses of more than US$1000 billion. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, which specialized in mortgage loans, and Lehman Brothers, which sold CDOs, all suffered huge losses.

A tired Wu Hongning appeared in front of Qu Li and told him that the trip to the United States was difficult and not as beautiful as he imagined.

"Are you about to submit this report?" Qu Li asked curiously. He didn't know how to get into the workplace. Huatou had not been officially established yet. He didn't want to get a better position and went to the United States to do research and write a report. An unflattering report.

"Why not hand it in?"

"Blackstone generates a large portion of its business and revenue from real estate."

"This guy is really haunted, what should I do?"

"Can convertible preferred shares work? If the subprime mortgage crisis breaks out, Blackstone's stock price will inevitably fall. When the time comes, it can be converted into ordinary shares, which will not only help Blackstone but also reduce costs."

A group of idle people are worried about the loss of national assets, just because they are full. Maybe they are making strategic losses to achieve more hidden purposes, such as bargain hunting.

Wu Hongning asked about Xiangcai Securities. Tian Yue was not challenged when he joined the board of directors of Xiangcai. Fei Liwen and others joined Xiangcai Securities in a private capacity and the matter progressed very quickly. As for Lehman's investment, of course it would not be so smooth.

"Are you confident that you will repurchase Lehman's shares in Jumei within three years?"

"They invested 3900 million U.S. dollars this time. In three years, I will have to pay less than 5000 million U.S. dollars. I can earn this money this year." Qu Li said calmly.

"You are too adventurous to gamble, so be careful to control your risks."

"But you don't know how many opportunities a person has to change his destiny in his life. The financial crisis that may break out in the United States should be the best opportunity in ten years."

Risk, what is risk? Uncertainty is called risk, but for Qu Li, most situations are certain.The international crude oil price reached US$65 per barrel, and he earned US$60 from the 1000 million barrels that cost US$5, which is US$5000 million.

Wu Hongning listened to Qu Li's explanation and felt that it made sense. The first opportunity for a person to change his destiny in this life is reincarnation; the second is the place of birth. The value of household registration in Beijin, Xiangjiang and other places in China is obviously better than that along the coast, and the value along the coast is better than that along the coast. Inland; then education and college entrance examination.

The more I think about it, the more biased I become. Can the financial crisis change a person's destiny? Of course it can, because the rise and fall of the industry will bring huge changes to the income of different individuals. The income of young people who started to enter the Internet industry in 2007 will be significantly higher than that of other industries. , this trend may not change after 2022, because the Internet industry has always been the infrastructure of the information age.It’s just that search, social networking, gaming, e-commerce, and food delivery companies may no longer enjoy high benefits and low tax treatment.

"I went to see the Paulson Fund you mentioned. Sure enough, many people invested in it, and the New Century Financial Company in the United States that made mortgage loans went bankrupt."

Qu Li rolled his eyes at Wu Hongning and put the key information at the back. The second largest mortgage company in the United States went bankrupt. Wouldn't this exacerbate the bursting of the real estate bubble?Assuming that the Workers’ and Peasants’ China Construction Company no longer engages in the mortgage business, and without Xinlee, will China’s housing prices not plummet?

"It's a pity that the first investment was given to Blackstone. By the time I can make the investment decision, there may be no profit."

"What's the rush? Safety comes first when investing in China. Isn't it good to buy gold and government bonds?"

You should buy it, Wu Hongning complained.

"Even if you don't want to buy national debt, you can still target some high-quality infrastructure and real estate resources, such as water, electricity, gas, ports, airports, and aircraft leasing in Europe and the United States. You couldn't buy them before. Now that you have the opportunity, why not buy more?"

"Buy European and American public facilities? Not good, the impact will be too great." They are sovereign funds, and their every move arouses people's imagination.

"Blackstone is standing in front of us. You contribute money and they contribute efforts..." Qu Li said that he really didn't think about it for himself. Huatou is a company that has grown very fast. The average return on investment in ten years is actually higher than the Singapore government's investment in GIC. , but the 2022 financial report was not announced until October 10, and we don’t know what happened.

Of course Wu Hongning came to Qu Li to get inspiration from the exchange. Every advice he got from Qu Li in the past two years seemed to be correct. He even never lost money in stock trading. Such people are either born with luck or they are really capable. .

Qu Li then introduced some companies with great potential, such as Apple, Google, Amazon, eBay, and Baidu. They all have great potential. If you buy them now, you won’t lose money anyway.Especially Baidu, why didn't he think of it at the time, otherwise he would not have bought Australia's FMG, but would have directly bought Baidu's shares.

Well, think about it again. Because of the capital gains tax, Qu Li will most likely not buy U.S. stocks when he invests in the name of his company.Although Australia also has capital gains tax, there is an exemption. If the shareholding ratio does not exceed 10% of a listed company, you do not have to pay capital gains tax.

"Do you think it is possible for CIC to invest in BHP Billiton now?"

"It's a beautiful idea, but I don't lack money or love. Why?"

"But the domestic steel industry..."

"But don't forget Huatou's responsibilities. I think it's most likely not to break the situation. It's better to do your job honestly than anything else."

“If it’s not to break the situation, doesn’t Huatou have strategic significance?”

"Yes, with such a large amount of foreign exchange, you can't just buy U.S. bonds. In addition to maintaining and increasing value, you must also pay attention to diversified investments. By the way, if I were you, I would invest most of the funds in the Japanese market to buy Japanese yen assets."

"why?"

"I heard that the Japanese yen is a safe-haven asset. If the U.S. real estate crisis triggers a financial crisis, will the demand for the Japanese yen in the international market increase? Is the probability of the Japanese yen appreciating high?"

"But if there is a financial crisis..."

If you don't invest in the stock market and real estate, there will be no investment projects. Do you still need Qu Li to give advice on how to invest? Isn't that asking blind questions?If he wanted to understand this, he would have already been speculating in stocks and foreign exchange. No, the appreciation of the yen was inevitable, so he, oh, he bought the Australian dollar.

“Then the Australian dollar won’t appreciate as well, right?”

"It's possible, but you have to know that Australia's ability to resist risks is not as strong as Japan's. If there is a global financial crisis, commodity prices fall, and international capital outflows..."

"Okay! No...it's so dangerous!" Wu Hongning was a little incoherent.

Even though Qu Li didn't have much social experience, he could tell that this guy probably had an enemy, and his investment direction might be in Australia. The international financial market could affect the whole body. If it weren't for the foresight and experience and the overall perspective, Qu Li would also There wouldn’t be the knowledge we have now.

"Don't be too happy too early. Things will generally evolve like this, but do you know the specific time point? If you are lucky, you will make a lot of money."

"Ahem..." Wu Hongning coughed awkwardly, caring about Qu Li's career, Jumei and Honor Technology as if nothing had happened.

"It's not bad. After recruiting two big boys, we should have less trouble in the future. However, Jumei is a bit troublesome, and now it's a bit nondescript."

Wu Hongning originally wanted to ask him why he was so lucky, but he felt it was inappropriate.

"Jumei just raised US$6500 million..."

"Money is not the most important thing for the development of an enterprise. At first, I really wanted to be a clothing e-commerce company and use information technology to transform the traditional manufacturing industry. The core competitiveness is the supply chain response capability. Now that it has become an e-commerce platform, the important thing is supply. chain management and sales capabilities.”

"Is there any difference?"

"In the past, I only had to deal with clothing factories, but now I have to deal with brands. The consumers at the front end have not changed, but the suppliers at the back end are completely different, and the data content that the corresponding middle-end system needs to process will also change qualitatively."

"Is it troublesome?"

"You have to give up one thing..."

I’ll add one update today, making a total of three updates. There’s no reason!