Rebirth of the Capital Legend

After hearing Huang Qingyun's words, Men Xingtao, the product manager of the "Xino Future No. 1" fund, pondered for a moment and responded: "From the depth of involvement of major major institutions in the market and the distribution of chip structures, the chip structure within the "big infrastructure" main line is indeed further concentrated, and the Internet software, film and television media, new energy industry chain... these recent oversold main line sectors are mainly attracted by hot money and retail investors for speculation.

As for the sustainability of the market...

I think it depends on the "big infrastructure" line, and the intensity and scope of subsequent adjustments.

As long as the core theme of "big infrastructure" is still in the stage of shock adjustment, it is still re-consolidating chips and building a chip support platform.

So, the core theme is 'big infrastructure'.

It will not be able to attract a large number of active followers in the market to further follow up and speculate.

In this way, without a core main line of huge scale like 'big infrastructure' to siphon the market's active short-term capital groups, the 'oversold rebound' line will naturally be able to continue to be hyped under the leadership of hot money, forming a certain hype space height.

Therefore, I think it depends on whether this round of "oversold rebound" can be sustained and whether there is room for speculation.

It mainly depends on the major capital groups in the market and the majority of retail investors, and their expectations for the adjustment of the core theme of "big infrastructure". In other words, the free chips currently in the field of "big infrastructure", including profit-taking, unwinding, trapped shares at today's highs, and historical trapped shares... When will these floating chips be sold out and form a significant shrinkage?

After all, most of the active capital groups currently participating in the market's 'oversold rebound' market.

Basically, they all flow out from the core theme of "big infrastructure".

As long as the main line of "big infrastructure" is still in the process of adjustment, it will not siphon off the active capital groups that are gathered in the field of "oversold main line" for speculation.

With the concentrated speculation of many active capital groups, the market will naturally have room and sustainability.

Although the birth, hype, and sustainability of a main trend cannot be separated from the assistance of market sentiment and expectations, in essence, the driving force of capital concentration is prioritized, and the liquidity of the capital concentrated here is prioritized. "

"Well, I know that the first condition for the hype to drive the market is the liquidity of the funds." Huang Qingyun responded, "But in the market, there are core large-scale main lines with expectations and underlying logic, not just the 'big infrastructure' main line. In terms of the chip structure and future expectations, the liquor, white goods, medicine, consumption... and other sectors that are currently being held by institutions on a large scale are not bad.

Moreover, most of the chips in these core-weight main-line sectors have been locked up by institutions in the market.

As a result, there are not many chips that are actually free.

Although the market value of the corresponding individual stocks is large and the circulating volume is also large, it is actually not difficult to pull it up.

In theory, when the core theme of "big infrastructure" is adjusted, these core themes with underlying logical support can form a rotation market and can take over the active capital groups that temporarily take profits and stop losses from the "big infrastructure" main line.

But strangely, this phenomenon did not happen.

Although there was a sign of a shift in the market sentiment towards sectors such as liquor, white goods, medicine, and consumption, this sign was soon abandoned by most funds and investors as the oversold main sectors such as "film and television media", "new energy industry chain", and "Internet software" rose.

"What's so strange about this?" Men Xingtao laughed and said, "The reason why the core theme of 'big infrastructure' was able to come out, and the reason why the expectations of all fund groups in the market were so consistent and strong in the development of the market in the past two weeks, one of the bigger reasons is that the chips in the core theme field of 'big infrastructure' are clean enough. Before the market broke out, there were no large-scale main institutions lurking, nor a large amount of hot money lurking. Basically, all the internal chips were gathered in the hands of retail investors.

Since institutions and hot money had no chips at the beginning of the market outbreak.

So, with the major reversal of its main fundamental logic and the continuous stimulation of new favorable policies, everyone's willingness to go long will naturally be extremely strong.

Of course, this is one of the main reasons why the market has exploded so rapidly.

There must also be deliberate guidance from the institution "Hua Yi Capital" and deliberate exposure of buying seats.

As for the defensive sectors you mentioned just now, such as liquor, white appliances, medicine, consumption, etc., first of all, most of the internal chips of these sectors have been gathered in the hands of many core institutions in the market. In other words, there are already countless institutions lurking in these core sectors.

Furthermore, these sectors have been experiencing a sustained upward trend over the past six months.

The valuation is not low compared to the entire market, and the stock price has risen to the present, which has already met the expectations for this year and even for next year.

Faced with a large number of lurking institutions and a very complicated internal situation.

Moreover, when the overall market trend and sentiment feedback do not show a panic situation, the vast majority of hot money active in the market are naturally unwilling to support the institutions.

After all, it has been rising for more than half a year.

Many institutional funds lurking in the main areas of liquor, white appliances, medicine, and consumer sectors have already made huge profits. If hot money rashly gets involved, it is likely to be instantly hit and it will be difficult to leave with a profit.

What's more, institutions and hot money have inherent differences in trading concepts and logic.

In fact, in our A-share market...

The market style dominated by hot money and the market style dominated by institutions are originally very different, and can be said to be completely different.

During the past six months, sectors such as liquor, white goods, medicine, and consumption have continued to rise.

Active hot money in the market would rather wait with empty positions than enter the market to buy these large-cap blue-chip stocks for institutions to carry, even if they are taking a break. When the stock price was low before, they were unwilling to enter the market to carry the stock, let alone now that the stock price has risen to a relatively high level?

Since it is impossible to attract hot money with active sentiment, it is impossible to form a unified force among various funds in the market.

Naturally, it will be difficult for the liquor, white goods, pharmaceutical, and consumer sectors dominated by institutions to absorb active funds withdrawing from the main area of ​​"big infrastructure", and it will also be difficult for them to break out of the rotation market.

On the other hand, the Internet software, film and television media, new energy industry chain...these main sectors are oversold at low levels.

Because these sectors had been driven by the continued explosion of the "big infrastructure" main line, a lot of large funds were siphoned off, resulting in a very clean internal chip structure in these sectors, with basically no early large funds and institutional funds lurking. Moreover, due to the continued decline, funds in the market continued to cut losses.

This also causes the share prices of many stocks within these sectors to be at extremely low levels.

At this position, the chips are clean and the upward pressure is small. At the same time, more funds are continuously withdrawing from the main adjustment trend of "big infrastructure" and flowing in to do "high and low switching". Even though these sectors lack long-term underlying logical support as a whole, there is still forward expectation support.

But it only relies on the advantages of the chip structure and the oversold attributes.

In the case of a short period of capital concentration and ample liquidity, it is enough to give rise to a round of rebound and create a wave of money-making effects on the market."

"What Mr. Men means is..." Huang Qingyun pondered for a moment and responded, "Based on the analysis of the chip structure alone, the 'oversold rebound' market formed by the oversold main lines of 'Internet software', 'film and television media', 'new energy industry chain'... is very likely to still have a certain degree of sustainability?"

"As I just said, the sustainability of the 'oversold rebound' market is likely to depend on the adjustment cycle of the 'big infrastructure' main line." Men Xingtao emphasized, "If you think that the core main line of 'big infrastructure' is unlikely to be adjusted within a few trading days and re-consolidate the new chip platform, then the 'oversold rebound' market hype theme is sustainable to a certain extent. Otherwise... the sustainability is questionable.

However, no matter how sustainable the 'oversold rebound' trend is.

I think this is not a transaction within the trading model of our fund products, nor is it a market trading opportunity that we need.”

"Yeah, I think so too." Huang Qingyun nodded and said, "From a fundamental logical analysis, it seems that the two main lines of 'Internet software' and 'film and television media' are indeed difficult to really come out of. As for the main line of 'new energy industry chain', I think the underlying logic is still there, and the expected performance explosion of the relevant core companies in the long term is also sufficient, but there are a lot of rumors in the market, and institutions have not reached a consensus on the future expectations of this main line, so it is difficult to form a joint force. The most important thing is that the institution 'Huayi Capital' has carried out a large-scale reduction in positions on the main line of 'new energy industry chain', making it difficult for various funds to form confidence in going long in this field."

"With the real explosion of the new energy vehicle market in the future and the further maturity of the industry, the main line of the 'new energy industry chain' will definitely return to the target of speculation by major funds from all walks of life," said Menxing Tao, "but the timing for intervention is not yet ripe.

Moreover, compared with the core theme of "big infrastructure".

At this time, the chip structure in the main field of "new energy industry chain" is even more chaotic and completely dispersed, which is not conducive to the continued breakthrough of short-term market conditions.

In other words, I think there is a high probability that these main concepts will rebound strongly today.

The short-term speculation will have a certain degree of continuity, but it will be difficult to participate and the scope will not be very large.

In terms of cost-effectiveness of investment...

Rather than chasing the market's 'oversold rebound' line, it is better to patiently wait for the adjustment of the 'big infrastructure' main line to be completed. "

"Well, the speculation market led by hot money is indeed changing too fast and the uncertainty is too high." Huang Qingyun responded, and then he stopped paying attention to the oversold main line sectors such as "Film and Television Media", "Internet Software", and "New Energy Industry Chain". Instead, he continued to focus on the market of individual stocks in the main line of "Big Infrastructure" and related market information. After a pause, he continued, "Looking at the trend of the main line sector of "Big Infrastructure" today, it feels that the range of this round of adjustments is very likely to be not small, and the time span may not be completed in just a few trading days."

"Really?" Menxingtao smiled and said, "I don't think so. First of all, the internal chip structure of the core main line of 'big infrastructure' is not chaotic, and institutions are still increasing their positions. Secondly, although this line has been forced to rise in the past two weeks, it has not fulfilled the fundamental logic expectation of a reversal.

In addition, due to the main trend of "big infrastructure", the market broke out very quickly.

A lot of funds that wanted to get in at a low price basically missed out on this wave.

Now, the opportunity for adjustment of this core main line has finally arrived, and the main institutional funds that missed the opportunity will definitely accelerate their positions.

In other words, overall, the concentration of the chip structure in the "big infrastructure" line will increase quite rapidly.

In addition, the birth and fermentation of the main line of "oversold rebound" at low levels.

It will also drive the free chips gathered in the main line of "big infrastructure" to be cleared out quickly and flow to low-priced stocks. This will also accelerate the adjustment speed of the main line of "big infrastructure" and shorten the shock adjustment time of the main line of "big infrastructure".

There is a lot of money that has missed out on opportunities, strong expectations for a reversal in fundamentals, and continuous stimulation from favorable policies... This series of factors does not support the core theme of "big infrastructure". At the current position, there will be long-term shock consolidation, so I can conclude that the adjustment time for the "big infrastructure" line will not be long.

Moreover, after this round of chip structure platform is re-established.

The subsequent upside is likely to be more violent than the first round of market."

After listening to Men Xingtao's analysis, Huang Qingyun did not expect that he had such strong confidence in the subsequent market trend of the core theme of "big infrastructure".

However, after thinking about it carefully, he felt that the other party was not wrong.

In fact, the offline real estate market in major cities, and even the entire real estate industry chain-related industries, are still recovering and booming.

In the Magic City where they live, housing prices basically change every day.

Such a hot property market will inevitably lead to an explosion in real estate-related industries, and even drive the continued rise in the share prices of core stocks in related industries.

So, in terms of fundamentals…

No matter how you analyze it, no matter how the short-term market trend of the "big infrastructure" line goes.

No matter how the market fluctuates next.

The long-term investment direction is certain, and it is also certain that large funds will continue to gather and deploy on the core theme of "big infrastructure". Thinking of this, he is no longer panicked, and he no longer cares about how the market's "oversold rebound" line will go.

Because no matter how the market changes in the future, the established operating strategy of their fund cannot be changed.

It also cannot change their confidence in focusing heavily on the main line of "big infrastructure" and their firm optimism about the future market trend of this core main line.