Rebirth of the Capital Legend

Unlike many institutions that are firmly optimistic about the follow-up market trend of the "big infrastructure" main line and are determined to maintain the future market investment style, which will continue to be biased towards weighted blue-chip stocks and high-performance white horse stocks, the vast majority of retail investors in the market at this time believe that the "big infrastructure" main line has already achieved its expected fulfillment, and they all believe that the concept speculation of small and poor stocks has returned.

In this situation where there is a huge difference in the cognitive views between institutional investors and retail investors...

After a night of emotional fermentation.

When Thursday, August 8, arrived, the two markets opened for trading again.

After ten minutes of call auction, the Shanghai Composite Index showed a trend of significantly lower opening, while the ChiNext Index showed a trend of significantly slightly higher opening. The two still showed differences in form.

In addition to the overall market index, related core themes, and concept sectors.

The real estate, building decoration, building materials, nonferrous metals, coal, steel and other sectors related to the main line of "big infrastructure" showed a significantly low opening pattern, and the related concept stocks led the market decline. Even the popular concept stocks such as "Shenhuo Co., Ltd.", "Pingmei Energy", "Tianshan Cement", "Beijiang Communications Construction", "Capital Group", "Yu Development", "Bayi Steel", "Linggang Co., Ltd.", etc., which were previously hyped to high levels by hot money, showed a trend of sharp decline.

The main sectors in the market that showed certain money-making effects yesterday include Internet software, film and television media, electronic information, new energy industry chain, etc., which were oversold.

In the call auction, the strong trend continued and all stocks opened higher.

Among them, stocks that attracted high market attention and were heavily followed by retail investors, such as 'Netspeed Technology', 'Storm Technology', 'LeTV', 'Tonghuashun', 'Changqu Technology' and other popular concept stocks, opened higher by more than 2%, and during the entire call auction, there was a clear rush of buying funds.

As for the defensive main sectors such as liquor, white goods, medicine, consumption, and big finance, where institutions are more heavily involved.

It completely presents a trend of shrinking volume and sideways movement.

There is neither obvious major buying funds nor obvious active selling.

"Looking at the opening situation, it feels like today's market trend will most likely revolve around 'Internet software', 'film and television media', 'electronic information', 'new energy industry chain'... these oversold main lines. Most likely, the market will continue to interpret the trend of 'oversold rebound'." Noticing the market opening situation, Li Shangfeng, the trading team leader of the main fund product trading room of 'Nuoan Blue Chip Mixed Selection' in the company of 'Nuoan Capital' in Shanghai, said with emotion, "The emotional feedback of the main line of 'big infrastructure' at the opening is really poor, and there is basically not much active buying funds to take over the market. It feels that its drastic adjustment trend will probably continue today."

"Yesterday, the core theme of 'big infrastructure' surged and then fell back, trapping a lot of funds." Wang Shujie, a fund manager next to Li Shangfeng, who was also squinting at the opening of the two markets, responded, "A lot of these funds are short-term speculative funds. Now the trend of the stocks related to the entire 'big infrastructure' theme is not as expected, and it is showing a trend of a sharp decline and adjustment. These funds will definitely sell at a loss, so... it is indeed expected that the situation will open like this today. As for after the opening... Will the core theme of 'big infrastructure' continue to adjust, and whether the market's 'oversold rebound' line can continue to make money and further open up speculation space, it depends on the emotional feedback and fund acceptance during the market, as well as the changes in volume."

Li Shangfeng nodded and asked, "Mr. Wang, what do you think? How will the market trend go today? Do we need to continue to increase the chips of the main line of 'big infrastructure' at this time and position? And...what do you think of the line of 'new energy industry chain'? Looking at the market trend in the past two days, it seems that the main line of 'new energy industry chain' has some signs of adjustment. In addition, the relevant state departments have clarified the rumors about the subsidy reduction of 'new energy vehicles' next year, saying that this is not the case. This shows that the negative haze that suppressed the rise of this main line has dissipated. In fact, if we analyze it from the perspective of future industry development alone, the long-term investment prospects of the core line of 'new energy industry chain' are still good."

Wang Shujie responded: "We have no way of predicting how the market will go during the trading session. After all, there is a lot of uncertainty. As for whether we need to continue to increase our holdings in the main line of 'big infrastructure' at this position, we should increase our holdings in the main line of 'big infrastructure'.

I think it is still necessary.

Because from a long-term investment perspective, there is also future expectations analysis.

At present, some core industry leading stocks in the main field of "big infrastructure" are still quite undervalued. What's more, core leading stocks such as "Poly Real Estate", "Conch Cement", "Shenhua Coal Industry" and so on are still in a state of breaking even based on their current stock prices, which is visibly undervalued.

Not only is the stock price seriously undervalued, but at the same time the fundamentals of the industry are improving rapidly.

Then, there is no reason for us not to continue to increase our holdings, and there is no reason for us not to continue to increase our holdings in the main area of ​​'big infrastructure'.

And the line of 'new energy industry chain' that you just mentioned...

Although rumors about the reduction of subsidies for "new energy vehicles" next year have been clarified by relevant national agencies.

However, looking at the entire new energy vehicle market, the time for electric vehicles to replace fuel vehicles on a large scale and significantly encroach on the market share of fuel vehicles has not yet arrived. At present, many new energy vehicle manufacturers are still relying on subsidies to survive, and the phenomenon of subsidy fraud in the industry still exists.

In other words, from a macro perspective, "new energy vehicles" will definitely be a major trend in the future.

But given the current development of the industry.

The explosion of new energy vehicles is still in the dark, and there is probably still some distance before dawn.

Since the explosion of industry demand still needs more time to brew, the transmission of this demand to the entire industrial chain will not be smooth.

The expectations for performance explosion of related industry companies and industry leading companies will not be very high, and the performance explosion will be difficult to achieve.

You can see that before, all the major funds in the market were speculating on the "new energy industry chain" line.

Its targets are mainly concentrated on upstream lithium resource stocks and upstream lithium battery equipment stocks, and have not spread to vehicle manufacturers' stocks or other supporting branch industry stocks at all, because the underlying logic is not smooth.

As for the core theme of 'new energy industry chain'.

If the goal is longer-term and the investment time standard is the next five years, then I am firmly optimistic and feel that the future potential is unlimited.

Long-term expectations can be brought into view.

We need to actually increase the net value of medium- and short-term fund products and compete with the main fund products of other institutions for annual returns.

Then we have to consider the reality and the expected actual performance explosion in the near future.

Consider it in the medium and short term.

Then the investment value and explosive potential of the core theme of "new energy industry chain", as well as the overall investment cost-effectiveness, are far less clear than those of the core theme of "big infrastructure".

Moreover, the main line of "new energy industry chain" was overly hyped by various funds before.

After the large-scale reduction of holdings by the institution "Huayi Capital", the chip structure of the entire "new energy industry chain" main line has been disrupted.

Under such circumstances, it will be difficult for the entire "new energy industry chain" to have another wave of major upward trend.

It is also difficult to take on the important task of guiding the entire market to break upward and restore the bullish sentiment of the entire market.

Therefore, I think that short-term sentiment speculation on the "new energy industry chain" line is acceptable, but the space for speculation is destined to be limited.

Only when this line shows signs of a substantial explosion in demand.

The logic of the surge in demand in the entire industrial chain can be transmitted smoothly, and related industrial chain companies can achieve real results.

The entire 'new energy industry chain' main line can truly form a magnificent bull trend.

This is also the time for us to intervene on a large scale.

As for now, I think we should still pay close attention to the core theme of "big infrastructure" and focus on the relatively high certainty of the demand explosion in real estate and building materials."

"That's true." Li Shangfeng nodded slightly. "The core theme of 'new energy industry chain' is indeed not very smooth at present. What about the film and television media, Internet software, electronic information, etc., which have shown a money-making effect and have relatively active hot money? What do you think, Mr. Wang?"

Wang Shujie smiled and said, "In the last round of bull market, various funds gathered and speculated, which has already overdrawn the main line of expectations for many years to come. There is no need to pay too much attention to it. Although the whole society has entered the era of mobile Internet, and with the subsequent mature application of 5G, the scale of market demand will further expand.

But mature mobile Internet companies are mobile Internet companies with cost-effective investment.

None of them are listed on our A-share market.

If you are really optimistic about this main sector, you can directly invest in "Huagai Internet", but I think the time to invest in this sector has not yet come.

In other words, the related stocks of these main sectors were really hyped up too much in the last bull market.

Although the share prices of many stocks have been halved or even reduced to one-quarter compared with the last bull market, they are still too expensive in terms of valuation. There is no cost-effectiveness at all and it is difficult to make long-term investments.

This can be seen by looking at the entire Internet software, film and television media, electronic information... sectors, and the current proportion of institutional holdings.

There are basically no core major institutions in the industry that can look down on these sectors.

There are no large core financial institutions making long-term investments in these sectors.

Over the past six months, these sectors have been in a continuous decline, and apart from the self-entertainment of retail investors, only hot money has occasionally paid attention to them.

Of course, in the era of 'mobile Internet', there are still many opportunities, but we still need to be patient.

The stocks related to these sectors can currently rise.

This is because the market has fallen too sharply over the past six months and has lagged behind the broader market too much, so there is a need for an oversold rebound.

At this point in time, the core theme of "big infrastructure" has reached the historical deep-water area of ​​locked-in chips due to its rapid short-term rise, and there is a need for drastic adjustments, which has released a lot of liquidity. Therefore, hot money has taken advantage of the opportunity of a lot of funds switching between high and low in the market, and has begun to guide the market expectations of "oversold rebound" in these main line sectors with less short-term upward pressure. "

"Mr. Wang means that sectors related to the 'mobile internet' theme, such as 'Internet software', 'film and television media', 'electronic information', etc., will not have a sustained rebound and are not worth participating in?" Li Shangfeng understood. "In that case... then we will follow the established strategy and continue to increase our holdings of the core leading stocks of the 'big infrastructure' theme and increase our holdings."

As soon as he finished speaking...

After a brief 5-minute suspension, the market has entered the official continuous bidding trading period.

As the two markets began to jump again, in the call auction, stocks related to the oversold main sectors such as 'new energy industry chain', 'film and television media', 'Internet software', 'electronic information', etc., which performed well, especially a number of popular concept stocks that were the focus of hot money and retail investors, received more buying funds, and their share prices rose rapidly, leading the related sector indices and the ChiNext Index to continue to rise.

At the same time, the "big infrastructure" main line-related sectors and their corresponding related stocks have lost many retail investors' follow-up buying, and the selling pressure from profit-taking, stop-loss and unwinding is still heavy.

It will completely present a free fall situation without resistance.

A number of popular concept stocks with the main line of "big infrastructure" such as 'Shenhuo Co., Ltd.', 'Pingmei Energy', 'Tianshan Cement', 'Beijiang Communications Construction', 'Capital Group', 'Yu Development', 'Bayi Steel', 'Linggang Co., Ltd.', etc., all fell rapidly.

At 9:31, just one minute after the market opened, Beijiang Communications Construction's share price dropped by 5%.

At 9:32, driven by a number of sector indices such as 'new energy industry chain', 'film and television media', 'Internet software', and core constituent stocks, the ChiNext Index quickly rose to a gain of nearly 1 point. At the same time, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 0.5%.

At 9:33, the "Real Estate" sector index fell by more than 1.5%. However, within the sector, a number of leading heavyweight stocks such as "Poly Real Estate", "Kewan Real Estate", "China Merchants Shekou" and so on, basically did not fall, maintaining a sideways and volatile trend with a significant reduction in volume.

At 9:34, Dofluoro, the leader of this round of rebound, rose again by more than 5%, with a total rebound of more than 20% in three days, continuing to attract market attention and profit-making effect.

At 9:35, the divergent trend patterns of the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index were still expanding, and the market's 'oversold rebound' trend was increasingly recognized by active hot money and a large number of retail investors in the market. More and more follow-up funds poured into the low-level oversold main sector, and a large amount of funds flowed out of the 'big infrastructure' main sector.

"It looks like the market's 'oversold rebound' trend will continue for a while." Seeing that the market continued yesterday's trend after the opening, Li Jinshi, who was among the main speculators of the 'Fushan system' and was continuing to adjust his positions to core stocks related to the oversold main line sector, said, "If the institutions don't make efforts, it seems that the 'big infrastructure' line will not be stable for a while!"