Rebirth of the Capital Legend

"Is the market expectation so consistent?" Noting that the main line of "oversold rebound" led by the main line sectors such as Internet software, film and television media, new energy industry chain, and electronic information in the two markets is getting stronger and stronger, and more and more funds are following the trend, Xu Qiao, who is among the main hot money group of "Magic City Ultra Short Gang", said in surprise, "This sentiment is developing too fast, isn't it? In just one afternoon, a completely consistent market development direction has been formed?"

Hearing Xu Qiao's words, Lao Zhang responded: "This sentiment has indeed developed a bit quickly. It feels like the short-term speculative capital group in the entire market, as well as the many retail investors who follow suit, have formed a completely consistent expectation on the main line of the 'oversold rebound' trend. Almost all active funds in the market are pouring into this main line.

I always feel that such strong consensus expectations are not a good thing.

In a bear market, market liquidity is limited. Once sentiment reaches a climax and expectations are consistent, subsequent buying will be difficult to keep up, and the market will naturally come to an end. "

"Indeed." Old Wu responded, "Looking at the flow of funds on the market, the active funds in defensive sectors such as liquor, white appliances, medicine, consumption, and finance, as well as the loss-making funds in the main field of 'big infrastructure', and the remaining profit-taking funds are all accelerating to flow into the low-level oversold main line headed by Internet software, film and television media, new energy industry chain, electronic information, etc., and the 'oversold rebound' line of small and medium-sized concept stocks in the market has begun to siphon liquidity from other main line areas. This shows that the liquidity of short-term speculation funds in the market has basically been absorbed by the 'oversold rebound' main line. In other words, this should be the time when the active buying of the 'oversold rebound' line is the strongest.

As the market trading time goes by, it can be predicted that the active buying volume on the market, especially on this main line, will most likely continue to weaken, because there is not much active capital in other main areas of the market that can continue to be siphoned by the main line of the "oversold rebound" market. "

"According to what you said, Old Wu..." Xu Qiao heard what Old Wu said and said, "Do you think the market's 'oversold rebound' trend line is almost there?"

Old Wu nodded and responded, "Originally this line has no sustainability. The entire new energy industry chain, Internet software, film and television media, electronic information... several major main lines have neither substantial news support nor strong fundamental reversal logic support. It is impossible to go far by relying solely on the liquidity released by the retreat of the 'big infrastructure' main line and the 'high-low switching' capital game generated by the advantage of the chip structure.

This line has been gradually fermenting since yesterday, or to be more precise, since the end of the trading day before yesterday.

The leading core concept stocks have basically seen an increase of around 20%.

As for the current market liquidity, the short-term height of 20% to 30% is basically the limit of space.

Previously, driven by the strong expectations and underlying logic of the "big infrastructure" main line, core hot concept stocks such as "Shenhuo Co., Ltd.", "Pingmei Energy", "Tianshan Cement", "Beijiang Communications Construction", "Capital Group", "Yu Development", "Bayi Steel", "Linggang Co., Ltd.", etc., have generally risen by 50% to 70% in more than two weeks.

If nothing goes as expected...

I feel the market is reaching the 'oversold bounce' line after the current short-lived sentiment high.

The earliest there will be a divergence is at the end of today’s trading, and at the latest after tomorrow’s opening, there is a high probability that the first-hand funds that have already made profits in the market will dump the market to stop profits.”

"Old Wu's judgment is similar to mine." At this time, Brother Chen, who had been silent, smiled and responded, "The chip game market without the support of the core underlying logic will not go far, not to mention that the current market liquidity is indeed limited and cannot support the progress of multiple main line markets.

Originally, the Internet software, new energy industry chain, film and television media, electronic information... these are the main sectors that have fallen too much.

It is the logic of the market's 'high and low switching'.

Now, after two days of rapid rebound, this logic has basically been corrected, which means that expectations have been fulfilled accordingly.

There are also several core concept stocks that are following this line.

It is about to reach the core area of ​​these stocks' historical trapped positions. In order to cross these core trapped positions, it requires a huge amount of buying to assist.

But in the current market, first of all, everyone's expectations for this line are obviously insufficient.

In addition, there is a lot of capital involved in this line, and there is no overall pattern. Everyone just wants to speculate and make a little profit and then leave.

Since the funds participating in this main line of market are not of high level in themselves, and the overall expectations for this line are not high either.

Then, naturally, the selling pressure in the market will gradually increase, especially when it starts to increase sharply, the active buying will appear particularly hesitant.

In this regard, we can actually pay attention to the ChiNext Index, as well as the intraday volume of the oversold main sectors such as film and television media, Internet software, new energy industry chain, electronic information, etc. Once the intraday volume of the core stocks related to these sectors, and even the ChiNext Index, shows a trend of obvious amplification.

This means that the hype of the 'oversold rebound' line has basically come to an end.

If the price can continue to rise with shrinking volume and no major selling pressure occurs, then we can naturally wait and see what the market is like.

However, no matter how this line develops now.

From the perspective of expected logic and high space, there is no buying point, only selling point. "

"Brother Chen, everyone knows that there is no buying point for the 'oversold rebound' line, so let's not talk about it..." Lao Zhang took over and said, "But on the current market, the two branch sectors of 'electronic consumption' and 'security lenses' that you mentioned before, and the related core stocks, have also been very strong in the past two days when the ChiNext Index rebounded. The logic of these two branches... should not be an oversold rebound, right?"

After hearing what Lao Zhang said, Brother Chen replied, "Of course they are different. For the 'consumer electronics' sector, I guess it's because market funds are speculating on the expectations of Apple's new product launch in September, so the related Apple concept stocks are going strong. As for the core stocks in the 'security lens' sector, according to my understanding, they are purely driven by the expectations of performance and changes in industry fundamentals."

"The Apple conference in September?" Xu Qiao pondered for a moment and said, "This is indeed worth hyping. Last year, the sales of Apple's new products were not very good. This year, there will probably be a big change. Also, the stocks related to the Apple industry chain do have solid logic and good performance expectations. Moreover, these stocks also have major institutions helping to lock up shares. Although the circulating volume seems to be large, it is actually not difficult to increase it."

"On the entire technology main line, only the 'Apple industry chain' branch line is worth looking at." Lao Wu also said, "Only the stocks related to this branch line have not deteriorated in K-line pattern and are still in a long-term upward trend. Other technology stocks are basically in a monthly downward trend."

"Brother Chen, what do you think of the adjustment of the 'big infrastructure' line?" Xu Qiao paused and asked, "I always feel that the 'big infrastructure' line can't fall any further. The leading stocks in the relevant core industries are basically trading sideways at high levels, and it is difficult to find a comfortable buying point. On the contrary, 'Shenhuo Shares', 'Pingmei Energy', 'Tianshan Cement', 'Beijiang Communications Construction', 'Capital Group', 'Yu Development', 'Bayi Steel', 'Linggang Shares'... these early popular concept stocks have adjusted sharply after a large number of hot money and short-term funds retreated."

Brother Chen said: "From the perspective of fundamental logic and future expectations, the positive factors of the 'big infrastructure' line are definitely continuing to strengthen. From the perspective of adjustment space and chip structure, the adjustment should not be completed yet. However, after the short-term funds in the market turned to the 'high-low switching' line for speculation, major institutions did not want to support hot money and retail investors, and defensive sectors such as consumption, liquor, white appliances, finance, and medicine were not pulled up. In the past two days, it seems that most institutional funds have flowed back to the main line of 'big infrastructure'.

if it is like this……

There is continuous buying of major funds from large institutions in the market, as well as market maintenance.

It is very likely that in the main area of ​​"big infrastructure", there are institutional holdings, or industry-leading stocks with strong logic, there will be little room for a correction.

In fact, in terms of operational transactions.

I think it may be better to either keep short positions and wait for the adjustment of the core theme of "big infrastructure" to be completed, or to defend by following the industry-leading stocks with strong market trends in the core theme of "big infrastructure" undertaken by institutions, rather than chasing the current "oversold rebound" theme.

After all, in this round of short-term "oversold rebound" market, we don't seem to have taken the initiative.

Since there is no first mover, then when the room for speculation is extremely limited and the market volume does not support this line to be hyped to a very high level, participating in such a market will not be cost-effective at all. It is very likely that if you participate, you will not get much profit, but will get beaten up instead. "

"I agree." Old Wu responded, "Overall, the logic of the 'big infrastructure' line is solid and safe enough. Oh... But if we talk about offense, the two branches you recommended, 'consumer electronics' and 'security lenses', are also very good. Basically, several core stocks of these two branches have developed independent trends independent of the market."

"Hey, that's true." Lao Zhang responded, "Fortunately, I have already established some positions in the two stocks of 'Dahua Technology' and 'Hikvision'."

"Fuck, Lao Zhang, your expression changes so quickly." Xu Qiao said, "Didn't you say that you would stick to speculating in small and medium-cap concept stocks and not take stocks dominated by institutions? Why did you suddenly change your mind?"

Lao Zhang responded: "Didn't Brother Chen just say that it's hard to participate without first movers? The 'Gusu Group' guys pulled up the market too quickly, and I didn't want to chase high prices, so naturally I didn't buy. I don't want to buy other marginal concept stocks that haven't risen sharply yet."

Accompanied by the continuous discussion among several core figures in the main hot money group of 'Magic City Super Short Gang'.

On the market...

As trading time progresses, active capital flows in the market are still flowing into oversold main sectors such as Internet software, film and television media, new energy industry chain, and electronic information. In addition, the related hot stocks in these sectors are still rising steadily, and even staged a surge in "oversold rebound".

At the same time, it is driven by the market trends of these major main sectors.

The ChiNext Index soared to 1% at around 40:3.52 p.m., marking the largest intraday increase in six months.

However, this is a situation where active funds in the market collectively flock to the oversold main line for speculation.

Around 2 p.m., it started to decline noticeably.

At 2:11 p.m., Penghui Energy and LeTV, which had originally hit the daily limit, began to fall, and led to the fall of many other concept stocks in their respective sectors.

As these popular concept stocks exploded, the intraday trading volume began to increase rapidly within the main line of the entire "oversold rebound" market, while also driving the intraday trading volume of the ChiNext Index to increase rapidly.

"Who is smashing the price of LeTV? 8 consecutive sell orders of 8 lots directly broke the price limit." Noticing that many hot concept stocks began to break the price limit in the main market of 'oversold rebound', He Zhong, who was among the main speculators of the 'Gusu system' who had already made a lot of profits in this core market, could not help but curse and said, "Isn't this just smashing the pot right after dinner? It's just an order of lots, can't you sell it slowly? You have to smash it all at the daily limit in one go to destroy the mood, it's simply..."

"The price of 'Do-Fluoride' has also started to increase in volume and the daily limit has also started to leak orders." Hearing He Zhong's complaints, Zheng Jinming, who holds a lot of shares in 'Do-Fluoride', responded, "Old He, the market's 'oversold rebound' line seems to be gradually collapsing after 'LeTV' exploded, and the ChiNext Index rose too much today, overdrawing the gains. It seems that the hype on this line has come to an end."

"I also feel that after LeTV's stock price crashed, the entire hype sentiment is rapidly falling back." Zhang Xinlei in the group also responded at this time, "The active buying orders are decreasing, and I feel it's time to take profits."

"Is this the beginning of a large-scale disagreement?" Lao Qian in the group was still a little confused at this time. "How much space is there? Isn't the heat and emotions just starting to stir up?"

"Well, it's still a volume issue," Zheng Jinming said. "Without the main attack of institutional funds, it's hard to rely on short-term funds in the market. In addition, the Internet software, film and television media, new energy industry chain, electronic information... these oversold main sectors have too many locked-in shares, and most of them are retail investors. Many of these retail investors are frightened birds. When they see the rebound weakening, they all sell."

"The same is true for the buying orders that were taken over." Zhang Xinlei added, "The short-term buyers in the market are mostly frightened birds. As soon as they see the sentiment ebb slightly and the market divergence increases, they immediately start to hesitate and dare not buy. Overall... after this wave of 'oversold rebound' main line, a certain bullish sentiment and market profit effect have been created, but it has not reversed the confidence of most retail investors in the market to go long. Of course, it is impossible to reverse it, so... while everyone still has some profits, I think it is safer to stop while you are ahead, depending on the market trend... Once the sentiment of the 'oversold rebound' line has fallen, some funds have begun to grab the chips of the 'big infrastructure' main line that has been slightly adjusted."