Rebirth of the Capital Legend

"There is an opportunity to get chips at a low price. At this point, how can the institutions in the market make efforts to stabilize the market trend of the main line of 'big infrastructure'?" Chen Guiyun, one of the main speculators of the 'Fushan system', responded, "And even if the institutions are willing to stabilize the main line of 'big infrastructure', based on the current market sentiment expectations, various funds cannot form a joint force on the core main line of 'big infrastructure'.

Firstly, many investors who chased high prices yesterday did not completely stop losses, and the chip structure was not cleaned and consolidated. Secondly, the room for stock price adjustment is relatively limited, and there is no basis for a rapid rise. In addition, from the market point of view, it is obvious that the low-level and oversold main sectors such as "Internet software", "film and television media", "new energy industry chain", and "electronic information" have diverted a large number of active capital groups concentrated in the main field of "big infrastructure".

In this case, the core theme of "big infrastructure" is already very large in scale.

Let alone re-gathering strong bullish sentiment and continuing to hit new highs, even if there is a weak rebound during the session, there is a lack of corresponding synergy.”

"That's true." Li Jinshi responded, "After the active capital flow in the market temporarily retreated from the main line of 'big infrastructure', it is highly likely that it will not flow into the core main line of 'big infrastructure' again before the chip structure of this core main line is re-consolidated and adjusted to the corresponding space. Based on these factors, the market's 'oversold rebound' line can be appropriately worked on and given a higher priority. Unfortunately... we didn't get the upper hand. Instead, it was the 'Gusu system' funds that predicted the market's main line switch in advance and lurked in the main line of 'oversold rebound'."

Hearing the two people's discussion, Liao Guoxiang responded at this time: "If it is confirmed that the market's 'oversold rebound' line has a certain degree of sustainability, then at the beginning of the market outbreak, it is not wrong to give the 'Gusu system' funds a boost. However... the oversold main lines such as Internet software, film and television media, and new energy industry chains still lack the stimulation of favorable news in the short term. Relying solely on the advantages of the chip structure and the assistance of hot money, I am afraid that the sustainability is still questionable. Without the first-mover advantage and chip cost advantage, it is still difficult to do."

"Brother Liao, do you think the main trend of the market's 'oversold rebound' is going to have some problems in terms of sustainability?" Li Jinshi asked. "Why? Looking at the current market trend, the active capital flow in the market, and the spread of bullish sentiment, they are basically concentrated in the main oversold sectors such as the new energy industry chain, Internet software, film and television media, and electronic information."

Liao Guoxiang responded: "The sustainability of the market still needs the support of underlying logic. At present, whether it is the main line of the new energy industry chain or the main lines of Internet software and film and television media, they are all lacking in underlying logic. Basically, the funds currently gathered in these main lines for speculation are not trading the so-called fundamental logic transformation, but a simple oversold rebound.

A simple oversold rebound is a pure chip game.

In other words, it’s a game of chips where the first player cuts the second player’s chips.

At the same time, due to the relative lack of market liquidity, there is also the problem of heavy historical trapped positions within these major oversold main lines.

If it is a pure chip game, funds that rebound from oversold will definitely not be willing to continue to push up to touch the spatial positions where the historical trapped chips are seriously concentrated within these main lines.

Let’s look at the degree of chip structure concentration within these oversold main lines.

The location of the core concentration area of ​​trapped shares above is actually less than 20% away from the current stock price position.

That is to say, the market's main line of 'oversold rebound' has a high probability of rebounding to a height of 10% to 20%. With this rebound height, it is very difficult to take profits if you participate in it. Therefore, my suggestion is to give up on this non-core main line of branch speculation, and continue to focus on the core main line of 'big infrastructure' to see when this main line is adjusted before re-entering. "

In his trading philosophy...

He believes that there is no end to the money to be made in the market and that opportunities are happening every moment.

However, there are not many opportunities with high certainty within his trading model. Usually, his choice is to wait with empty positions when the opportunity has not come or when the certainty is not high enough.

"I agree with Lao Liao's statement." Chen Guiyun said, "The market's oversold rebound line is simply a result of the current market high-low switching, which has a strong gaming nature. If you don't take the initiative and chase highs, you are likely to be buried at the rebound high point."

"Okay then." Seeing that both of them agreed, Li Jinshi paused and said, "Then I will also go short first and wait for the subsequent market trend to become clearer."

Accompanied by the analysis of the market trend by several core major speculators of the "Fushan Group".

The market trading hours are changing.

Stocks related to the core theme area of ​​"big infrastructure" are still undergoing adjustments, while stocks related to the recent oversold main lines such as Internet software, film and television media, and new energy industry chain continue to rise under the follow-up speculation of many active funds in the market.

At 10:09 am, in the main field of "big infrastructure", a number of previously popular concept stocks such as "Shenhuo Shares", "Pingmei Energy", "Tianshan Cement", "Beijiang Communications Construction", "Capital Group", "Yu Development", "Bayi Steel", "Linggang Shares" ... generally fell by more than 5%. At the same time, core weight stocks such as "Poly Real Estate", "Kewan Real Estate", "Conch Cement", and "Shenhua Coal Industry" also fell, falling by more than 3%.

At 10:18 am, the share price of 'Netspeed Technology' hit the daily limit, achieving its second consecutive daily limit.

At 10:22, 'Penghui Energy' hit the daily limit, and the 'lithium battery' main sector index rose by about 2.5%.

At 10:31, LeTV's share price rose by more than 7%, and the Internet software sector index continued to rise, also rising by more than 2.5%.

At 10:43, the ChiNext Index rose by 1.75%, while at the same time, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by only 0.48%, and the A50 Index was still in the red. However, despite the poor performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the A50 Index, small and medium-cap concept stocks in the entire market still showed a general rebound trend, with more stocks rising than falling in the two markets.

At 10:44, "Tianci Materials" hit the daily limit, also achieving a two-day consecutive daily limit trend.

At 10:51, the share price of Changying Precision hit the upper limit and quickly closed at the upper limit. The consumer electronics sector began to explode. At the same time, in the security lens sector, the two core stocks of Dahua Technology and Hikvision continued to show a sharp rise.

At 10:56, in the main field of "big infrastructure", the net outflow of main funds in several core sectors reached 17.59 billion, ranking first among the major main lines of the two cities, and the real estate, building decoration, and building materials sectors are still at the forefront of the decline in the two cities.

At 11:02 am, the stocks of 'Huawen Media' and 'Ciwen Media' rose straight to the daily limit, and the 'Film and Television Media' sector index rebounded by more than 2%.

At 11:09, "Qianzhou Moutai" fell to a 1.5% intraday drop. At the same time, as the share price of "Qianzhou Moutai" fell, the core weight sector indexes of liquor, medicine, consumption, white appliances and other large institutional main funds also fell. A lot of active funds flowed out of these weight sectors.

At 11:15, the general rise in small and medium-cap concept stocks in the market has basically been recognized by the majority of retail investors in the entire market. A large amount of active funds began to flow into low-level sectors such as Internet software, film and television media, new energy industry chain, electronic information, etc.

At 11:23, as the market increasingly reached a consensus and began to hype small and medium-cap concept stocks, the ChiNext Index rebounded to a rare 2% increase.

Finally, when 11:30 arrived, the two markets closed at noon.

The ChiNext Index closed at a gain of 2.11%, with more than 1700 stocks in the two markets rising. Several main-line related sectors such as Internet software, film and television media, and new energy industry chain led the market overall, while traditional sectors related to the "big infrastructure" main line such as real estate, building decoration, building materials, nonferrous metals, coal, steel, and defensive sectors such as medicine, liquor, white goods, consumption, and finance led the market decline, with few active follow-up funds paying attention.

"Today's trend is really impressive! How long has it been since the ChiNext Index had a big positive line?"

After the midday closing, many retail investors in the online stock investment exchange forum were in a good mood and couldn't help but sigh.

"It seems that the last time it rose by more than 2% was last month, right? That time it only rose for one day, and then fell back quickly. I hope it can stabilize this time and not fall again."

"I feel that this time, it will probably be able to stabilize. After all, today's volume increased significantly, while the last time it decreased."

"It's good that the ChiNext Index has risen. Previously, the Shanghai Composite Index and A50 Index had continued to rise, but it seemed to have nothing to do with my holdings. I couldn't outperform the index at all. Today, I finally outperformed the index for once."

"I think the performance of the ChiNext Index can represent the performance of small-cap stocks in the market, right?"

"It's like this. How many retail investors can there be in the pharmaceutical, liquor, white goods, consumer, and financial sectors that are all backed by large institutions? How much does the surge in these sectors have to do with us? Personally, I think... the current trend is healthier. The trend in which only a small number of stocks in the entire market rise while other stocks continue to be drained by large stocks is simply disgusting and not healthy at all."

"Yes, yes, it was clearly a group of institutions that hyped up the issue, and they even called themselves 'value investing'."

"It's just that today, all the major, medium and small-cap concept stocks in the market continued to rebound. I don't know if this is a confirmation of a change in the market's investment style, or a short-term rebound?"

"It must be a change in investment style. The two major sectors of Internet software and film and television media have already fallen badly, so they should have recovered."

"But I feel that the main trends in the market are still seeing a seesaw effect."

"Yes, the trend differentiation is still quite serious. Previously, all the major funds in the market were basically concentrated in the main line of 'big infrastructure'. Now the main line of 'big infrastructure' has entered a stage of violent shock adjustment, so the liquidity of many small and medium-cap stocks in the market has improved a bit."

"Alas, I chased the hot concept stocks in the main line of 'big infrastructure', which is really miserable. I was forced to suffer a limit down."

"One limit down is not bad. I bought the stock of 'NetSpeed ​​Technology' at the beginning of the year and have already lost about 45%. It will have to double to get my money back."

"Hasn't 'Netspeed Technology' been hitting the daily limit these past two days?"

“Even if the stock price rises by two daily limits, I still can’t make back my investment. Anyway, I will definitely not sell it at this price.”

"Why sell this? The market investment trend has finally turned to small and medium-sized stocks. I feel that there will definitely be a big market in the future. Moreover, according to the technical analysis of the K-line pattern, the ChiNext Index has almost bottomed out. There is a demand and motivation for a continued rebound and breakthrough."

"I am afraid that once the subsequent 'big infrastructure' main line is adjusted, the liquidity will be siphoned away again."

"That shouldn't be the case, right? I feel like the 'big infrastructure' line has already made up for this year's gains in the past two weeks, so it's a bit overdrawn in the short term."

"Is the rise over? I don't think so. Huayi Capital, which is headed by President Su, hasn't significantly reduced its holdings yet."

"Anyway, I won't chase higher prices anymore. For now, whoever wants to go for the 'big infrastructure' line can go."

"However, the core stocks of the core sectors such as 'Film and Television Media', 'Internet Software', and 'New Energy Industry Chain' have skyrocketed over the past two days, so it's not easy to buy them now. The stock prices have basically rebounded by more than 10% to 20%. I feel that if I continue to buy them, it may be a bit of a high-price chase."

"This position should be okay?"

"Didn't it just explode? The market of the 'big infrastructure' line has been booming for almost two weeks. The market of the 'film and television media', 'Internet software', 'new energy industry chain'... these main line sectors, not to mention the sustainability of the 'big infrastructure' line, at least the rebound time will be about a week, right? The core leaders of the rebound should have room for 50%, not to mention doubling, right?"

"If we chase them now, we should be able to get some meat. If we chase them later, we will only be able to drink soup."

Along with discussions among many retail investor groups…

Everyone is still relatively optimistic about the market's 'oversold rebound' trend, and generally believes that there is still a long way to go for this line of market.

At the same time, everyone also agreed that the core theme of "big infrastructure" will most likely continue to adjust downward.

Under this kind of expectation and emotional feedback.

After the emotions brewed during the afternoon, when the time reached 1 p.m., the market once again ushered in continuous bidding transactions.

The two markets had just started to move in the afternoon trading, and the low-level main sector indexes such as "film and television media", "Internet software", "new energy industry chain", "electronic information", and related concept stocks, active buying became more aggressive and concentrated, and related stocks all experienced a sharp rise.

Moreover, this is due to the boost from these related sectors and related stocks.

The ChiNext Index also rose rapidly in just ten minutes after the afternoon opening, reaching a 3% increase, setting a new intraday rebound high, encouraging more active capital groups concentrated in the main fields of medicine, liquor, white appliances, consumption, and large-scale infrastructure to flow into the ChiNext Index's weighted components and related stocks of the low-level oversold main sectors.