Rebirth of the Capital Legend

Of course, in the early trading session today, many retail investors who were forced to panic and sell their stocks are still cursing.

But this does not affect the recovery of investment sentiment in the entire market.

It is also impossible to prevent various market investors from looking at and changing their expectations for future market conditions.

"Looking at the data of the Dragon and Tiger List of the two cities, the 'Yuhang Group', 'Gusu Group', 'Fushan Group'... various hot money in the circle have increased their positions recently." Noting that the trading seats related to several powerful hot money in the circle have appeared on the buying list of various popular stocks in the disclosed data of the Dragon and Tiger List of the two cities, Zhao Zhiyuan, who was in the main hot money group of the 'Qilu Gang' at this time, was quite surprised and said, "It seems that the deep V reversal in the afternoon has formed a fairly consistent expectation of various funds in the market, which also shows that this is most likely the low point of short-term panic selling."

Hearing Zhao Zhiyuan's sigh, Zhang Wei responded: "It is obvious that the golden needle is bottoming out, and the 'big infrastructure' line has recently played a significant money-making effect. The short-term smart capital group that is sensitive to market trends will definitely take the initiative to buy chips at this position, so I don't think there is anything strange about the performance of the Dragon and Tiger List data in recent days."

"This is a short-term low point, so there shouldn't be any problem." Liang Jiucheng also said at this time, "But I don't think it's likely to see a violent rebound quickly. Although the overall market sentiment has warmed up and the after-hours market sentiment is also improving, I feel that tomorrow's market trend is likely to be less optimistic. Today's golden needle needs to be confirmed again."

"That shouldn't be the case, right?" Zhao Zhiyuan said. "According to the current market sentiment feedback after the market close, if the major market indices don't open higher tomorrow... that would be lower than expected."

"If it opens really high, I'm afraid it will continue to fall." Zhang Wei responded, "After all, in the deep V rebound trend this afternoon, the group of funds that bought at the bottom have already made a lot of profit based on the closing results. This part of the funds...if the market opens high tomorrow, there must be a strong expectation of profit realization.

In other words, tomorrow's major market indexes and related hot stocks will generally open higher.

These short-term buying funds taken over today will most likely be sold, which will also double the upward pressure on the market.

It is obvious that the current slight recovery in sentiment cannot quickly attract large-scale intervention of incremental off-market funds. In other words, if the index and related hot stocks generally open higher tomorrow, the current potential buying power in the market will not be able to absorb this part of short-term profit-taking and the combined selling pressure of other free trapped shares.

If the stock price cannot withstand the selling pressure from the market, it will naturally fall back quickly.

So I agree with Lao Liang's point of view.

Even though the market's investment sentiment has warmed up at the moment, the trend...I am afraid there is still some room for it to get out of the current adjustment trend and return to the upward trend. "

"It is not necessary for all kinds of funds in the market to be able to take over all the core themes of the market." Zhao Zhiyuan still disagreed with the two people's views. After a pause, he said, "As long as the active fund group in the market can take over the line of 'big infrastructure', it will be enough.

After all, judging from today's market sentiment feedback and market trends.

Boosting market sentiment, and ultimately reversing the downward trend, leading the market out of the deep V trend, it is the core theme of "big infrastructure" that drives market sentiment back to normal.

As long as there are active capital groups in the market, they can take over the selling of the "big infrastructure" line.

Then, when the "big infrastructure" line produces a money-making effect and has a very high popularity and heat in the market, other main sectors and other stocks will naturally be driven up.

When other main sectors and other stocks are driven up, the market's money-making effect will be further enhanced.

Aren’t the incremental funds from the off-market and the bandwagon effect of retail investors coming? "

"How can it be that easy?" Liang Jiucheng said, "Look at the market trend in the first half of the year. The main sectors such as liquor, white appliances, medicine, consumption, and finance have been rising strongly and have shown a very beautiful upward trend. Have they driven the other main sectors of the market to continue to rise? Have they attracted an incremental group of off-market funds? No, in the process of the continued rise of the main sectors such as liquor, white appliances, medicine, consumption, and finance, other main sectors and other stocks have not only failed to follow the rise, but have fallen a lot. Among them, stocks related to the main sectors such as Internet software, electronic information, film and television media... have had their liquidity siphoned off, and their stock prices have generally been halved compared to the beginning of the year."

"Can it be the same?" Zhao Zhiyuan said, "Liquor, white goods, medicine, consumption, finance... these defensive main-line sectors originally represent the risk-averse effect of market sentiment. Once these main-line sectors rise, it means that the overall market profit effect is not good and the loss effect is serious. How can the OTC incremental capital group and the numerous retail investors follow suit enter the market to take over?

Furthermore, these defensive main-line sectors are already the main-line sector areas where institutions are fully controlled and grouped together, and where the "national team" has heavy holdings.

How could these funds possibly support the retail investor group?

What's more, most of the retail investors who are still trading in the market have been trading in the market for several years and are relatively experienced and mature investors.

This group of investors has a relatively high level of understanding of market trends and the logic of the main market trends.

Institutional and 'national team' main funds are unwilling to support retail investors.

Naturally, the many mature retail investors active in the market are unwilling to support these large capital groups at a stage when the stocks of defensive main-line sectors such as liquor, white appliances, medicine, consumption, and finance have already risen to relatively high levels and their valuations are generally above the market average.

That is to say...

Lao Liang, the defensive main-line sectors you mentioned, such as liquor, white goods, medicine, consumption, and finance, are currently difficult to form market synergy, difficult to gather the overall bullish sentiment of the market, and difficult to drive the overall market trend. The underlying logic of these main-line sectors has certain flaws.

However, the current situation of the "big infrastructure" line is completely different.

First, driven by the continued explosion of the offline real estate market and the fundamentals of continued rising housing prices in various regions.

In the entire main field of "big infrastructure", whether it is real estate development, building decoration, building materials and other industry sectors, or upstream cement, steel, nonferrous metals and related industry sectors, the fundamental changes have actually occurred, and the underlying logic is continuously improving and getting better.

That is to say, as the fundamentals change further in the future.

The performance of stocks related to the entire "big infrastructure" theme will show an explosive trend.

When the performance of these stocks generally explodes, their valuations will appear even more undervalued even if the stock prices themselves do not rise.

This, in my opinion, is a sufficient margin of safety.

Furthermore, in the core area of ​​"big infrastructure", the valuations of a number of industry-leading stocks are below the average in the entire current market, and are themselves undervalued.

That is to say, even if there is no expectation of a major change in fundamentals.

Currently, a number of core stocks in the "big infrastructure" field have certain rebound needs and valuation repair expectations as their valuations are generally low.

Also, look at the major core areas of the market.

The 'big infrastructure' line should be the main line sector with the best chip structure at present, right?

Two months ago, basically no major funds paid attention to the "big infrastructure" line. They all believed that the climax of urbanization construction had passed and the increase in housing prices was not sustainable.

That is to say, in the field of "big infrastructure".

Even for the many institutions that have already taken the initiative, their holding costs do not have much floating profit, and they have no desire or motivation to sell for profit for the time being.

What about the locked-in shares? The previous wave of institutions concentrated on building positions and pulling up the market.

It has also undergone continuous adjustments and fluctuations in recent times.

Its internal trapped shares mechanism has been readjusted, and many trapped shares have been cleared, which has greatly reduced the future upward pressure.

In addition, Mr. Su from Huayi Capital has made a heavy investment in the main area of ​​"big infrastructure".

At present, the "big infrastructure" line can be said to be the best in the market in terms of fundamental changes, expectations for future performance explosion, current general valuations, emotional expectations, retail investors' willingness to follow suit, major funds' willingness to lock up positions, and other factors.

In this case, the smart group of funds in the market.

The priority target of attack is naturally self-evident.

In other words, no matter from which perspective, the "big infrastructure" line will be the core driving force of the current market situation.

Furthermore, now that the market panic has been vented, the market itself is expected to rebound strongly.

If we don’t choose the “big infrastructure” line, what else can we choose?

Moreover, I believe that the "big infrastructure" line will inevitably emerge in subsequent market transactions and serve as the vanguard of the market rebound.

There is really no need to be pessimistic about this position.

Even if there is no increase tomorrow, the market will have another wave of sell-offs to test the bottom, then the day after tomorrow, the day after tomorrow...it will definitely increase, right?

We just need to grasp the direction of certainty and do things with high probability. "

"It's not wrong to consider it from the logical point mentioned by Lao Zhao." After listening to Zhao Zhiyuan's analysis, Zhang Wei pondered for a moment and responded, "Let's maintain the current position first and wait and see. At this position and at this time point... it is definitely wrong to be short-sellers, but it is not appropriate to be long-sellers. It would be better to maintain a partial position and wait and see. I think the group of funds that intervened to buy at the bottom this afternoon have made a lot of profits. Even if the market sentiment warms up, the market performance tomorrow will still be under pressure. Of course... in the medium and long term, this is definitely a relatively low position, and the underlying logic of the 'big infrastructure' line is indeed strong enough."

"Yes, it's better to do it and see what happens." Liang Jiucheng responded, "It's unlikely to reverse directly, but it's also unlikely to continue to fall. I tend to think there's a high probability of fluctuations here, but this is just my guess. What will happen specifically... We still have to wait until the market comes out to know."

"No matter how much position you take, no matter whether you are bearish or bullish on the future market..." Zhao Zhiyuan said, "I think you should rely on the line of 'big infrastructure'. This can be seen from the recent data of the Dragon and Tiger List of the two cities. In the entire Dragon and Tiger List data, the main line sector with the greatest active buying power from large funds and the highest participation of hot money is the 'big infrastructure' line. Even the stock price of 'Oriental Yuhong', which has a market value of nearly 200 billion, almost broke through the ceiling."

"It is definitely right to focus on the 'big infrastructure' line." Zhang Wei said, "But if the entire market wants to reverse and form a major upward trend, it still depends on how far the long funds on the 'big infrastructure' line can work together? How far can its profit-making effect develop and ferment?"

As several people discussed...

Although there are some minor differences in specific bullish and bearish views, on the whole, everyone remains optimistic about the "big infrastructure" line and is willing to continue to increase positions and go long on this core line.

While several people were discussing, the market news came at the same time.

There are also continuous positive news about the main line of "big infrastructure". Among them, the positive news in the real estate market has dominated the screen one after another. Rumors about the major first-tier cities such as Shanghai, Pengcheng, Yanjing, and Yangcheng about to enter the purchase restriction stage have also been revealed in an orderly manner.

However, various industry sectors under the main line of "big infrastructure" were bombarded with positive news, and market sentiment continued to develop in the bullish direction.

In the evening, the peripheral market trend in the middle of the night also changed its previous downward trend.

Several major U.S. stock market indices all opened slightly lower and then continued to rise and rebound, and even hit new highs, forming an unreasonable long bull trend.

Under the combined stimulation of internal and external benefits.

The next day, Wednesday, August 8, the two markets reopened. After about fifteen minutes of call auction, all major indexes opened higher.

Among them, the highly-watched 'big infrastructure' main line of various industry sectors and related concept sectors.

All of them were snapped up by various fund groups during the call auction stage, showing a trend of opening higher than the index.

"Looking at the opening performance, the market sentiment has completely recovered from yesterday's gloom." Noting the general high opening trend of the two markets, Li Shangfeng, the trading team leader of the main fund product trading room of 'Nuoan Blue Chip Mixed Selection' in 'Nuoan Capital' in Shanghai, smiled and said, "Yesterday's golden needle bottomed out, and it was a beautiful move. It is estimated that today's intraday will open higher and move higher, forcing the funds that sold at a low price yesterday to chase high and buy back the lost chips."

"Why do I feel so optimistic?" Next to Li Shangfeng, Wang Shujie, the main fund product manager of 'Noan Blue Chip Mixed Selection', stared at the opening of the two markets with his eyes, frowning slightly, and said, "The current A-shares are like patients who have just been released from the ICU. It is said that illness comes like a mountain falling, and illness goes away like pulling a thread. Can the A-share market go directly from the ICU to the KTV state in an instant? I don't believe it anyway. Besides... a lot of short-term funds that bought the bottom at the bottom yesterday afternoon have a lot of profit space under the situation of today's high opening. Can this part of the funds... have such a good situation to lock up the position?"